Header Image -

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10

 

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Tier 1

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Very interesting opening tier where DraftKings decided to put Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown together. Not only is it very close as they are both averaging 21 DraftKings points per game but the Steelers are also a Top 10 rushing team and passing team when looking at the DVOA ranks and the Colts are at the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing defense. With the Steelers sitting as double-digit favorites(-10.5), I tend to lean on Bell who should see some extra volume in the second half if the Steelers can get the early lead. When it comes to the other two running backs in this tier, they are very comparable when looking at the matchups. Both the Chargers and Saints have been Top 10 vs. the pass this season(DVOA) and sit in the upper half of the league when looking at DraftKings points allowed to wideouts and tight ends but both sit outside the Top when looking at rushing defense. I lean Fournette here as Jacksonville is a four-point home favorite and have an elite defense that should be able to shut down the Chargers. Fournette is also a big bounce back candidate that should be revved up after being benched for violating team rules. It also helps that the Jags heavily rely on him for most of their offense.

Top Targets in this Tier – Le’veon Bell, Leonard Fournette

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Another interesting decision to make in the second tier as both Saints running backs are in play. Mark Ingram out snapped Kamara last week 36-25 but it was Kamara having the better fantasy day as he rushed 10 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and also caught six of his seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown for 32.2 DraftKings points. The Saints now own the 3rd best rushing offense(DVOA) and get another decent matchup this week as -2.5 favorites vs. the Bills who rank 17th in DVOA vs. the rush and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to the running back. With the Bills being even better against the pass, I lean Ingram who should once again see more snaps and likely another 15+ carries.  Melvin Gordon is coming off a bye week after blowing up against the Patriots in Week 8 as he rushed for 132 on just 14 carries thanks to an explosive 87-yard touchdown run. The Jags rush defense has also improved lately as the held the Bengals to just 30 yards from the running back and the week before held the Colts to just 65 yards(running backs). Gordon could very well be the lowest owned player in this tier. The last option we have is wide receiver turned UFC fighter, A.J. Green. All jokes aside, Green is an elite wideout who ranks 8th in receiving yards(578) and has also scored four touchdowns. He gets an elite matchup this week as the Titans have been rock solid against the run but struggled against the passing game as they rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 20th in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers.

Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Mark Ingram

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

First things first, Mike Evans has been suspended after his altercation with Marshon Lattimore last week and the appeal was denied confirming he will not play this weekend. Michael Thomas, after 11 targets last week, continues to be the favorite option for Drew Brees but he hasn’t scored in for straight games and has just two touchdowns on the season which limits the overall upside. He also gets a tougher matchup this week vs. the Bills who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. Golden Tate of the Lions has split targets with Marvin Jones this season but like Thomas is a more of a cash game, high-floor type player with just two touchdowns on the season. The matchup is also a bit tricky to figure out as the Browns rank 28th in DVOA vs. the pass but rank 8th overall in Draftkings points allowed to wideouts. I tend to lean towards them being a good defense vs. the pass as Jason McCourty ranks 2nd overall and Briean Boddy-Calhoun ranks 13th overall in PFF’s cornerback rankings. When analyzing the running backs in this tier, they both have somewhat favorable game scripts as both the Vikings and Bears are favorites in their respective matchups. I tend to lean towards Jordan Howard who gets a matchup vs. the Packers who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs while McKinnon faces a Redskins team that ranks 15th in that category.  The other key is that Howard is seeing a 62% snap count share on the season while McKinnon is seeing just 43% of the snaps.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Golden Tate

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Tier 4

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

In the first quarterback tier, I have a feeling that Matt Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger will be the chalky options as both teams are currently sitting as double-digit favorites and projected for the most points on the slate. Stafford is coming off an impressive Monday Night Football win in Green Bay where he completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns. After not throwing for 300+ yards in his first five games of the season, he has now down so in three straight putting up 20+ DraftKings points in each. With the Lions lack of a running game(79.9 yards per game) and the Browns ranking 28th in DVOA vs. the pass, Stafford could be in for another big week. Roethlisberger also gets a top matchup this week vs. a Colts team that has allowed the second most yards per game through the air(279.7) and ranks 27th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. In the Bills/Saints game, I lean Drew Brees as the Saints rank 4th in passing yards per game(269.8) while the Bills rank 30th(186.9). The other key factor in play is that the Saints much-improved defense ranks 12th in passing yards per game allowed(210.5) and 4th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Finally, one of the most surprising quarterbacks of the season has been Josh McCown who sits second in completion percentage(70.4%) and 12th in passing yards(1,980) despite the Jets ranking 24t in DVOA passing. He also gets a plus matchup this week facing a Bucs team that ranks 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position.

Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Stafford, Josh McCown

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Tier 5 presents some very tough decisions as all four quarterbacks playing at home get tough matchups vs. teams that rank inside the Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback position and 17th or better when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Of those four, Kirk Cousins leads the way averaging 19.7 DraftKings points per game but faces a Vikings team coming off a bye week and allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season(200.8). I won’t be touching Blake Bortles this week who is averaging just 207 yards per game but it has more to do with Leonard Forunette who will be back in the mix and likely to see a large workload after a week off “to rest”. Jacoby Brissett is another quarterback I will be avoiding this week facing a stout Steelers pass defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(180) and third-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. The two options at the top of my list are Marcus Mariota who is coming off a two-touchdown performance but more importantly, is back using his legs with 14 rushing attempts over the past two weeks. At the top of my list in this tier is on the other side of the ball where Andy Dalton gets the only matchup of the five QB’s against a defense ranked outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass. Hopefully, his top target in A.J. Green can remain on the field for the entire game and if he does I think Dalton has a shot at leading this tier in fantasy points this week.

Top Targets in this Tier – Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

Aaron Jones is the only running back in the sixth tier and very well could be the lowest owned coming off a terrible week where he rushed for just 12 yards. The big risk with Jones is the fact he will be working in a committee with Ty Montgomery. Next up, we got both Vikings starting receivers and it really comes down to the rest of your lineup construction. If you took some risks in other tiers, I would suggest going with Thielen who has been very consistent this season with 9.4 targets per week and has topped 90 yards in four of his eight games. If it’s upside you’re after, take a shot with Diggs who has topped 90 yards three times(173 in week 3) and has two multi-touchdown games. The biggest risk with the Vikings wideouts is the matchup as they travel to Washington to face a Josh Norman and the Redskins who rank 11th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game. I think a lot of people will be chasing the points with T.Y. Hilton this week after his explosive performance in Week 9 where he tallied 175 yards on just five catches and scored twice. The problem this week is that the matchup is much tougher against the Steelers who rank 5th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Speaking of tough matchups, Marvin Jones Jr. also gets a tough matchup as he is likely to see shadow coverage from Jason McCourty who ranks second overall on PFF’s cornerback rankings this season. Then we have JuJu Smith-Schuster who will be working out of the slot for the Steelers and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(279.7), rank 25th in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. He is also likely to see coverage from Pierre Desir who ranks 102nd of 115 eligible cornerbacks on the PFF rankings.

Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

In the seventh tier, I will start with a couple players I will be avoiding and it starts with Jordy Nelson who has been irrelevant since losing his starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to injury in Week 6. The next fade for me is DeSean Jackson of the Bucs who has had a tough time since changing teams in 2017 with just 422 yards receiving and has only broke 50 yards once in his last four games. Adding to that is the fact that he also lost his starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, who will be sitting out a couple weeks with multiple injuries. I am shocked to be saying this but one of the most consistent options in this tier has been Tedd Ginn Jr. as he has broke 50 yards in four straight games scoring two touchdowns and even breaking 100 yards in that time. When teams have put emphasis on shutting down Michael Thomas, he has been a top target for Drew Brees alongside rookie running back Alvin Kamara. While the Bills have some very talented corners, they rank 26th in passing yards allowed(250.3) this season. That leaves Chris Thompson who operates as the Redskins passing down running back and has been very successful this season ranking seventh in targets per game(5.8) among running backs and has recorded double-digit fantasy points in six of his eight games. Then we have one of the biggest surprises of the season at any position with Robby Anderson who leads the Jets with 6.3 targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards three times and comes in red-hot scoring a touchdown in three straight games. I have a good feeling he can keep that streak going as he gets an elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Robby Anderson, Chris Thompson

Tier 8

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Week 10 - Lineuplab.com

To start with, we have some injuries to monitor as Sunday approaches. After his best game of the season and out-snapping Bilal Powell in three straight weeks, Matt Forte missed practice on Wednesday with swelling in his surgically-repaired knee. Delanie Walker also missed practice on Wednesday with an injured ankle but his status is a little better as he played through the injury last week and led the team in receiving yards. The questionable tag might keep people off him this week presenting some low ownership in this tier with big upside as Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. I will be avoiding Keenan Allen this week who not only has disappointed with just one score this year but also gets a terrible matchup vs. the Jags who lead the league in passing yards allowed per game(156.4), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Kelvin Benjamin situation is another one I will be fading due to it being his first game with a new offense after coming over in a trade at the deadline and it doesn’t help he gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. I need to see how he fits in before restoring him this season. Since Brett Hundley has taken over as the Packers quarterback, it has been Devante Adams leading the team with 25 targets, 14 receptions and 119 yards with one touchdown. The Packers get a tough matchup but Adams is likely to lead the team once again and it is a near must-win situation for the team to keep their playoff hopes alive. I mentioned above how I will be fading Blake Bortles of the Jags as 1. he has no upside and 2. they rely heavily on Leonard Fournette. This is a tough tier and I do feel we can turn to Marqise Lee who has received double-digit targets in two of his last three weeks and now leads the team with 7.3 per game on the season. He has also topped 75 or more yards in three straight games and scored his first touchdown last week vs. the Bengals. We will also have to monitor his status at practice on Thursday and Friday as he wasn’t present on Wednesday but according to Jags beat writers, hasn’t practiced since mid-October but has not missed a game.

Top Target in this Tier – Devante Adams, Marqise Lee

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!






Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 9

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 9

For a limited time use code "NLA5017" to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

For a limited time use code “NLA5017” to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

 

 

Tier 1

I will start with wide receiver Julio Jones in the first tier. Although the Falcons rank in the top half of the league in DVOA pass offense(15th) and passing yards per game(251.1), it has been a disappointing fantasy season for Julio who has just one touchdown and has also only seen double-digit targets twice this season. Now he gets one of his toughest matchups of the season vs. a Panthers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. he would be my separation play in this tier but would only consider if you are multi-entering. Both running backs enter this week as favorites but I prefer Todd Gurley on the road for a couple reasons starting with the fact Fournette is coming off an ankle injury. Both the Giants(120.7) and Bengals(111.9) have sub-par rush defenses but looking at DVOA ranks vs. the rush, Gurley has the edge as the Giants rank 24th while the Bengals rank 10th. The final straw is the targets as DraftKings is a full PPR site and Gurley is receiving 5.4 targets per week while Fournette is averaging just 2.9 per week.

Tier 2

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. First of all, we have the most unsustainable form I have ever seen with Will Fuller as he has just 13 receptions this season and seven of them have gone for touchdowns. That is about as crazy as it sounds but he does have one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league, DeShaun Watson, with absolutely full trust in his skill. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game(290.4), rank 30th in DVOA vs. the pass, and 27th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Fade at your own risk! Then we have another wideout in Mike Evans who has been a target monster since entering the league and ranks 4th this season with 9.4 per game but gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. It would also be a huge downgrade for Evans should his quarterback, Jameis Winston, miss week 9 as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Stay tuned. On the other side of the ball is our third choice with Saints running back, Mark Ingram who is in a plus situation as the Saints are currently seven-point home favorites. The Bucs sit mid-pack allowing 111.7 yards per game on the ground, rank 20th in DVOA vs. the run and 23rd in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Then combine that with the fact Ingram has been red-hot since the departure of Adrian Peterson as he has received 65 carries and rushed for 294 yards(4.5 yards per carry) in the last three games.

Tier 3

Only four options in the third tier but some tough decisions to make as all four get near elite matchups vs. teams ranking in the bottom third in DraftKings points allowed to their respective positions. Mark Ingram was discussed in the previous tier and I prefer him over Kamara who has received 10 carries just once this season and is more of a third-down back who gets work when the Saints are down. That should not be the case this week as they are huge 13 point home favorites to the Bucs who could be without their star quarterback. Speaking of questionable players, Lamar Miller is questionable in week 9 with a knee injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. If he plays, he is likely to be the highest owned in this tier anyway coming off a fantastic week where he scored twice. I spoke about Zach Ertz last and how I was fading him in the toughest matchup of the season for him was dead wrong. He continued to be Carson Wentz’ top target in the red and he also leads the league with six red-zone touchdowns, having caught eight of his 10 targets inside the 20-yard-line. This week he faces a Broncos defense who has had a ton of trouble with tight ends ranking 30th in DraftKings points allowed to the position. He is my top pick in this tier.

Tier 4

Now we jump into the quarterbacks and it won’t be easy as three of them(Wentz, Mariota, Ryan) face defenses ranked inside the Top 10 of DraftKings points allowed to the position and all but Cam Newton face defenses ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass. Looking at each quarterback’s last four starts, only Jameis Winston has multiple 300+ yard passing games but has only tallied four touchdowns in those games and like I mentioned earlier, is questionable to play this week with a shoulder injury. The other high-risk option in this tier is Marcus Mariota who has 830 passing yards in his last four games with just three touchdown passes but is coming out of a bye week and is reported to be 100% after dealing with a hamstring injury for some time now. I am not at all interested in using him in a tough matchup vs. the Ravens who rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 2nd in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. Like last week, I will turn to MVP candidate, Carson Wentz, who has been extremely consistent with 1,005 yards passing and 13 touchdowns over his last four games. He gets a tough matchup vs. a Broncos defense who hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season but that should only help with his ownership in the tier.

Tier 5

For starters, we can eliminate Trevor Siemian off the list as head coach, Vance Joseph, announced it would be Brock Osweiler under center this week for the Broncos. Andy Dalton will be starting this week but he is also a scratch off my list as he faces the league’s #1 defense when looking at passing yards allowed per game(161.7), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback. The next option that gets crossed off for me is Blake Bortles despite coming off his best start of the year. He just doesn’t have the targets with Allen Robinson on the shelf and also doesn’t have to force the ball downfield often with an elite defense and one fo the rookie of the year candidates in Leonard Fournette at running back. That leaves two sophomore quarterbacks who are both on the road this week with decent matchups as the Giants(27th) and Texans(29th) both rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. Of those two options, I prefer Jared Goff as the Rams rank 10th in DVOA vs. the pass while the Colts sit way down in 30th. While Brissett has the best overall target in T.Y. Hilton, Goff has the better collective group with Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, and Cooper Kupp at his disposal. I wouldn’t fault you for playing either this week, but I will be leaning on Goff and the Rams.

Tier 6

Like the previous tier, we can eliminate players and it starts with Kelvin Benjamin who was traded to the Bills and per DraftKings, will not accrue fantasy points this week. Another situation we will have to monitor as the week goes on is the status of Devonta Freeman who suffered a shoulder injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Even if he plays, I will be avoiding as he gets a tough matchup vs. a Panthers defense that ranks Top 5 in rushing yards allowed(81.6 per game) and fourth in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Wide receiver A.J. Green leads all players in this tier with 17.7 DK points per game but gets a very tough matchup this week vs. an elite Jaguars defense at home and will likely be shadowed all day by Jalen Ramsay who currently ranks #3 when looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings. My favorite play in this tier is Christian McCaffrey who is already getting elite targets(8.3 per game) and with Benjamin shipped out of town, could see even more volume moving forward.

Tier 7

Another tough tier this week as DeSean Jackson may be without his quarterback and also faces a tough Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. The same tough matchups exist for Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Mohamed Sanu who face defenses (Rams & Panthers) who rank Top 10 in DVOA vs. the pass. For me, I will be turning to Tedd Ginn Jr. of the Saints who gets a near elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. The consistency hasn’t been there but Ginn is a home run threat and may not even have to face slot corner, Brent Grimes, who is questionable. The Vegas total(50.5) is one of the highest of the week and I am willing to take a risk here.

Tier 8

I will lead off with the tight ends in this tier as they both have shown consistency and upside. Cameron Brate is only seeing 58% of the snaps for the Bucs this season but continues to be utilized heavily when in the game as he has five straight games with 60 or more yards and has already scored four touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Saints who rank Top 5 in both DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to tight ends. At the position, I prefer Jack Doyle who is coming off a 100-yard game and his second touchdown of the season but it’s the volume I like more than anything. He is second to T.Y. Hilton on the team with 6.9 targets per week. The two other plays I will be targeting in this final tier will be Panthers wideout Devin Funchess who has now become the #1 wideout in Carolina with the trade of Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline. The matchup is a toss up for me as the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points given up but then rank 25th when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Funchess isn’t going to break any long runs after the catch but should see 10+ targets and be a key in the redzone for Cam Newton. The final play I like in this tier is rookie Joe Mixon who somewhat broke out last week after 91 receiving yards and saw his biggest snap count share of the season at 63% vs. Jeremy Hill who seen is lowest at 13%. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Jaguars who despite being a top defense against the pass, have been awful against the run and rank 32nd in rush yards per game allowed(138.6) and 32nd in DVOA vs. the run.

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 8

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 8

For a limited time use code "NLA5017" to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

For a limited time use code “NLA5017” to receive the rest of the NFL season for 50% off!

 

Tier 1

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

There are only three players in the first tier again this week but the decision is much tougher. Both LeSean McCoy and Julio Jones are coming off a week in which they reached the endzone for the first time in 2017 while A.J. Green had a down week in a divisional matchup vs. the Steelers. This week they all get near elite matchups and it starts with LeSean McCoy who faces a Raiders team that ranks 20th in DVOA vs. the rush, and 18th in DraftKings points per game vs. the running back position(113.9 yards per game). The Bills are at home where they have yet to lose a game this season and open as slight favorites(-2.5) and with the lack of receiving options, will rely heavily on McCoy. He is my top choice in this tier. If you are looking to go with a wideout here, I prefer Julio who gets a slightly better matchup vs. a Jets team that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. pass and 27th in DraftKings points per game to the position. What scares me most about A.J. Green this week is that the Bengals are currently double-digit favorites which could take the game script away from Green as they could focus more on getting the run game going this week.

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

Looking at the running backs in the second tier, there is a case to be made for and against both of them. Melvin Gordon gets the much better matchup facing a Patriots team that ranks 26th in DVOA vs. the rush and 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs but Chargers are currently 7.5 point dogs which doesn’t bode well for Gordon’s projected carries. The good news is that he ranks 6th among running backs with 6.1 targets to game. For Ingram who has the lesser of the matchups vs. the Bears who rank 16th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed, he does have the projected game script in his favor as the Saints sits as large nine-point favorites. He also sits in the Top 10 with 5.1 targets per game and has been much more effective since the departure of Adrian Peterson with back to back 100-yard rushing games. With all that said, I lean Ingram in this spot, even over Mike Evans who has been a beast with touchdowns in three of his last four games. The issue with Evans is the matchup vs. the Panthers who rank Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to wideout this season and have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game through the air(180.7).

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

Naturally, Tom Brady will see a lot of ownership in a pick’em format and it makes sense as the Pats have the #2 passing offense with 300 yards per game. The issue for me in Week 8 is the matchup vs. the Chargers who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass, have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game through the air(185.4), and rank 6th in DraftKings points allowed to the QB position. The other seasoned veteran, Drew Brees, also gets a tough matchup vs. a Bears team that ranks 10th in DVOA vs. the pass and 6th in DraftKings points allowed to the position. Cam Newton has been struggling big time following his back to back 300+ yard games with just one touchdown in his last two games while not breaking the 250-yard mark. Matt Ryan also falls in the struggling quarterback column as he has not broken the 300-yard mark since week one and has just seven touchdowns all season. He would be my low-owned contrarian play in this range as he is starting to target Julio Jones more and faces a Jets team that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and ranks 20th in passing yards per game allowed(231.3). My favorite play in this tier is young Carson Wentz who has helped the Eagles to the top overall record in the league. He has been dominant over the last three weeks with 794 yards passing and 11 touchdowns while averaging 28.6 DraftKings points per game. He also gets an elite home matchup vs. a 49ers team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback.

Tier 4

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

I suspect in this tier a lot of people will be chasing points with Derek Carr and Jameis Winston who are both coming off monster games. I am not buying into it as Winston faces a very stout Panthers defense that has limited opposing quarterbacks to the fourth lowest passing yards per game(180.7) and ninth fewest DraftKings points per game. Carr also gets a tough matchup going on the road to Buffalo to face a Bills team that ranks 11th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. The Raiders wideouts also have some tough matchups as they will face E.J. Gaines and Tre’Davious White who rank 34th and 4th when looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings. I do like Andy Dalton as a low-owned option in this range but like I mentioned with A.J. Green, I think the game script gets the Bengals away from the pass as they sit as double-digit home favorites. My favorite play in this range is Philip Rivers who shouldn’t have an issue with game script facing a New England team that leads the league with 410 yards per game and sit as 7.5 point favorites at home. I have a feeling the Chargers will be chasing most of the game and that means volume for Rivers and his receiving core. While the Pats defense looked better last week, they still rank 28th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

Tier 5 gives us two elite tight ends with monster upside but the issue is they both get very tough matchups vs. teams that rank inside the Top 5 when looking at Draftkings points per game allowed to the position. I just finished telling you how Rivers was my top QB in the fourth tier so I naturally like the upside that Keenan Allen provides as his top target. I also doubt he will be the highest owned player in this tier either as he has struggled this season with just one touchdown(week 1) but sits Top 5 in targets and could easily breakout vs. a Pats team that ranks 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Of the two running backs, I prefer Jordan Howard who continues to see the volume and gets a plus matchup vs. the Saints who are giving up 114 rush yards and 26.9 DraftKings points per game.

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

In Tier 6 we have five wideouts and Christian McCaffrey who has been used almost primarily like a wideout for the Panthers. His average of 8.4 targets per week not only leads all running backs in 2017 but would also rank him 13th if he were a wide receiver. He has not received double-digit carries in a game since week one but could possibly get a little more volume this week as Jonathan Stewart is dealing with a toe injury. If that is the case, he gets a nice matchup this week vs. the Bucs who have allowed 113.7 rushing yards per game and rank 23rd overall when looking at DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. His teammate Kelvin Benjamin is my favorite target in this tier as he gets a nice matchup vs. a weak Bucs secondary that has allowed the third most passing yards per game(294.8) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. I like the upside that the New England offense presents with Tom Brady under center but will be avoiding the situation this week as the Chargers outside cornerbacks ranks #9 and #11 out of 112 cornerbacks when looking at Pro Football Focus and rank 5th overall in passing yards allowed per game(185.4).

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

Combining opportunity and matchup in this tier, I turn to Pierre Garcon who leads all players(in the tier) with nine targets per game and gets a matchup vs. an Eagles secondary that ranks 28th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The game script is also right for the picking as the 49ers are 13 point underdogs and should be forced to throw the ball a ton. I mentioned Kelvin Benjamin in the last tier and if you are not using him there, I would consider using Devin Funchess in this tier as the Bucs secondary, as I already mentioned, is bad. Both of their outside corners(Brent Grimes & Robert McLain) rank outside the Top 65 in PFF’s rankings. Nelson Agholor is also a nice high upside play in this tier. The floor is low as he only sees an average of five targets per week but he knows how to gain yards after the catch and reach the endzone and has done so in three straight weeks.

Tier 8

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Who to pick, who to pick? --- Every week Lineuplab.com has the answers!

With the news on Wednesday that Michael Thomas is dealing with a knee injury, I like the upside that Tedd Ginn Jr. provides. He is coming off a monster week where he went off for 141 yards and has scored twice in his last four games. Even with Michael Thomas in the game, teams have been blanketing coverage his direction forcing Drew Brees to go other directions and Ginn has been the benefactor. In a similar situation, I also like Mohamed Sanu of the Falcons as the Jets are likely to shadow Julio Jones with Morriss Claiborne which could open up extra targets for Sanu who is coming off a decent week where he caught six of his 10 targets for 65 yards. The final play I would consider in this range is tight end Hunter Henry who has all but taken over for future Hall of Famer, Antonio Gates. He has seen 80%+ snaps in back to back weeks while has seen just 57% and a season-low 31% last week. In those two weeks, Henry has caught nine of 12 targets for 163 yards and scored a touchdown in the two weeks prior to that. He gets a nice matchup this week vs. the Pats who rank 26th in DraftKings points allowed to the position.

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 7

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 7

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football. The decisions are really starting to get interesting no matter the format you are playing as injuries are starting to pile up across the league. The good thing about the Pick’Em contests on DraftKings is that the decisions are not nearly as difficult. Let’s jump in and break down the players in each tier along with my favorite picks in each.

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Tier 1

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Rookie Leonard Fournette is neck and neck with Todd Gurley when looking at fantasy points per game this season. Fournette has the edge in rushing as he trails only Kareem Hunt in rushing yards with 596(4.6 per carry) while Gurley has 521 yards(4.2 per carry). Gurley has the slight lead in PPR points per game due to his 5.0 targets per game and 245 receiving yards while Fournette is averaging 3.3 targets per game with 145 yards receiving. Of the two backs, I lean Gurley as Fournette is questionable with an ankle injury and even if he plays could be limited as Chris Ivory looked good as his backup last week. If you are looking to go a bit off the board, LeSean McCoy is likely going to be lower owned than Gurley and has out targeted both the other backs averaging 6.4 per week. It makes sense as Tyrod Taylor doesn’t really have many targets these days. He gets a matchup vs. the Bucs who could be without Jameis Winston this week which should help with the game flow giving McCoy some extra opportunities if the Bills can get ahead early.

Tier 2

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The second tier gives us three target monsters all on the road. Fitzgerald has been the most productive this season averaging 10.3 targets per game with 465 yards and three touchdowns but has the toughest matchup of the bunch vs. the Rams who rank 7th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts and will see a lot of Nickell Robey-Coleman who has graded out as a Top 30 cornerback via Pro Football Focus. Mike Evans has yet to break 100 yards in a game and comes with a ton of risk if Jameis Winston should sit out. He also gets a tough matchup vs. the Bills who do sit in the middle of the pack when looking at the DraftKings points per game but rank 3rd overall when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. Michael Thomas trails both in targets per game(8.6) but gets the best matchup facing the Packers who rank 20th in DraftKings points per game and 19th when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. He also has the highest upside quarterback throwing to him in Drew Brees.

Tier 3

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Right off the top, I will be fading both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston for injury reasons. I already discussed Winston’s questionable tag as he is dealing with a shoulder issue and did not attempt any passes in Wednesday’s portion of practice. Mariota is working on a short week after returning for the Monday night game and was limited in the sense that he remained in the pocket for the majority of the game and only attempted two rushes for zero yards. For me this week, it is either Carson Palmer or Drew Brees depending on who you chose in the tier before between Thomas or Fitzgerald. I will be splitting my exposure between them and favor Brees slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. the Packers who rank 19th in DVOA defense vs. the pass this season.

Tier 4

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

In the fourth tier, we get some middle of the road quarterbacks and all but Josh McCown face a defense that rank outside the Top 25 in DraftKings points per game to the position. Looking at the matchup and the weapons available to each, I favor Jared Goff in this tier who not has been the most productive but also sees a large gap in offense vs. defense as the Rams rank 5th in DVOA offense while the Cardinals rank 24th in DVOA offense. Alos, looking at Vegas lines, the Rams have the highest projected point total at the moment at 25.5 with Jaguars and Blake Bortles up next with 23.5 but I don’t trust Bortles one bit without his top wideout, Allen Robinson who was lost for the season. My second choice in this tier would be Tyrod Taylor who faces a Bucs defense that ranks 31st in DVOA defense vs. the pass and DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. He also adds the ability to rush the ball as he has done so 32 times this season for 121 yards.

Tier 5

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

For the record, I am a die-hard Vikings fan but will be avoiding both McKinnon and Thielen this week as this game has one of the lowest point totals of the week at 40. Not only that but the Ravens have allowed under 190 yards passing to their opponents and rank 2nd when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. When looking at the other two receivers, I prefer Jarvis Landry who has been Jay Cutler’s favorite option and sits second to only Antonio Brown with 11.4 targets per week. Kelvin Benjamin also sits with a questionable tag after leaving Wednesday’s practice with another knee injury. We are then left with two running backs who were teammates just two weeks ago but with Peterson being traded to the Cardinals, opens up more touches for both of them. In his first game with the Cards, Peterson went far and above expectation rushing 26 times for 134 yards with two touchdowns and looked like the “All Day” of old. While Ingram and the Saints have the edge when looking at Vegas(-5.5 favorites & 26.5 point projection), Peterson has the matchup edge as the Rams rank dead last in DraftKings points allowed per game to the running back position. I honestly don’t think you can go wrong with either this week.

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

Tier 6

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The selection in tier six gets bigger but is not short of tough decisions. It starts with the injuries as Devonta Parker, DeMarco Murray, and Stefon Diggs all missed practice on Wednesday and are questionable to play on Sunday. Then we have a pair of wideouts who come with a ton of risk. It starts with Jordy Nelson who leads the league with six touchdown catches but lost his MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, for the foreseeable future. Then we have last season’s receiving yards leader, T.Y. Hilton, who faces one of the toughest matchups in the league against a Jaguars team who has limited opponents to 166 yards per game and rank #1 when looking at DVOA defense vs. the pass. For me in this tier, it comes down to one of the three other running backs and I am torn between Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins and Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers. Ajayi has the preferred matchup vs. the Jets who rank 25th in DVOA defense vs. the rush and 26th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while McCaffrey has been a PPR beast as he leads all backs with 8.3 targets per game and has totaled 293 yards and two touchdowns. It comes down to personal preference and for me, I will be splitting them and constructing multiple Pick’Em lineups.

Tier 7

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 7 - October 21, 2017

The next tier gives us our first look at some tight ends and both have excellent matchups. Delanie Walker will be the lowest owned of the two as he is having a disappointing season, reaching the end zone just once through a rush. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to the position. Seferian-Jenkins has been targeted 19 times over the last two weeks, catching 14 of them and has scored a touchdown in both games. I think both make nice separation plays with the chalk picks in the other tiers but my favorite play in this tier is easily Davante Adams who was targeted 10 times by Brett Hundley last week after Rodgers exited the game and scored a touchdown. With most of the attention paid to Jordy Nelson, like most weeks, Adams should once again see a high target share vs. the Saints who rank 26th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Tier 8

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown

The final tier is another tough one and to start off, I will be avoiding Sammy Watkins who is likely going to draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals. I think this is going to open up rookie Cooper Kupp in the slot to see possibly a team-high amount of targets this week in a much better matchup. I also really like the matchup for Duke Johnson this week facing a Titans team that ranks 25th in DVOA defense vs. the pass and the Browns have been using him almost exclusively as a receiving option. He is likely lower owned as well coming off a down week where he rushed for 40 yards and caught just three of five targets for -1 yards. This week it will be Deshon Kizer back behind center who he has been much more comfortable with this season.

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!






DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Week four of the NFL season is in the books and we now move on to the bye weeks. Technically the Tampa Bay and Miami have already had their bye week due to Hurricane Irma but this week four teams(Atlanta, Denver, Washington, New Orleans) will be getting a break from the action. With the limited games, the DraftKings Pick’Em “Early Only” contest is limited to just six tiers this week so let’s jump and take a look at some of the top picks.

Tier 1

The first tier gives us eight quarterbacks with a lack of top matchups when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position as the Lions, Jaguars, Panthers, and Bills all rank Top 10 in that area. My top options in this tier is Carson Palmer who faces a Eagles team that has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings per game(20.3) to quarterbacks and the third-most passing yards per game(285). If the Eagles are unable to get pressure on Palmer this week it could spell trouble for the secondary as the Cardinals have a speedy wide receiver core with J.J. Nelson and John Brown and then have to deal with Larry Fitzgerald who may have the most reliable hands in the league. Palmer will most likely be the chalk here as he currently sits third in tags at the QB position when looking at FanShareSports. Next on my list is Eli Manning who trails on Carson Palmer in attempts this season after tossing it up 47 and 49 times over the last two weeks. The Giants are desperate for their first win of the season and Eli has the advantage of throwing to one of, if not the best wideout in the game with Odell Beckham Jr. The matchup isn’t great, by any means, as the Chargers rank 13th in DK points allowed to QB’s this season but that should only help keep his ownership down and that appears to be the case as he ranks 10th in tags on FanShare as of Wednesday night.

Tier 2

In the second tier, we get a nice mix of elite wideouts and running backs. For the wide receivers, Antonio Brown gets the toughest matchup facing the Jags who have allowed the fewest passing yard per game(147) and rank 2nd in DK points per game allowed to receivers. This has me leaning Le’Veon Bell who is coming off a huge bounce-back week where he rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching four of six balls for an additional 42 yards. While the Jags have been dominant against the passing game, the same can’t be said for their rush defense as they have allowed the most yards per game(165.5) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the position. I am also in favor of rookie Leonard Fournette on the other side of the ball as the Steelers, like the Jags have been dominant vs. the pass but weak vs. the run. I talked about Eli above being one of my favorite quarterbacks due to the volume which automatically has me drifting towards OBJ who is averaging 8.3 targets per game. The only risk here is that he has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury. If it’s volume you are after, don’t discount the matchup for Keenan Allen who is likely going to see a ton of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as he is averaging 10 targets per game and already has two 100-yard games in 2017. While the Dolphins pass game ranks in the bottom of the league(28th in passing DVOA), I do like DeVante Parker this week as the Titans rank 31st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts and Parker is averaging nine targets per game and has over 75 yards in each game so far.

Tier 3

In the third tier, I favor the wideouts who all get matchups vs. teams who rank 25th or worse when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position. By default, I lean Larry Fitzgerald as I mentioned Carson Palmer in the QB section being my favorite. Even at 34 years of age, Fitzgerald has not lost a step and still remains up there with the games elite. He sits fifth in targets per game(10.3) and has scored a touchdown in back to back contests. My second favorite wideout is Pierre Garcon who is likely going to be lower owned coming off a poor outing vs. the Cardinals but consider he had a very tough matchup vs. Patrick Peterson. Garcon is the leading receiver for the 49ers and is averaging 8.3 targets per game and has a good shot to score his first touchdown of the season. Of the four running backs, I lean Melvin Gordon who faces a Giants defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game(142.8) and should see some added volume after making it clear he has been frustrated with his overall touches.

Tier 4

We get a couple tight ends in this tier but I will be avoiding them as it’s a vulnerable position and both players get tough matchups s the Bengals and Cardinals rank Top 5 against the position. Of the two running backs, I lean Christian McCaffrey who is getting a whopping 7.3 targets per game. This should continue in Week 5 as the Lions have held opponents to 86.3 rushing yards per game which has been Jonathan Stewart’s department through four weeks. Looking at the wideouts, I favor Rishard Matthews who faces a Dolphins defense who has allowed sixth-most passing yards per game(272.3) and ranks 21st in DK points allowed to the position.

Tier 5

The decisions become a bit more tricky as we get into the final two tiers but there are a couple players who stand out. First of all, I like Duke Johnson over Joe Mixon at the running back position as he faces a Jets team that ranks 27th in DVOA defense vs. the run. He gets out-touched in the run game by Isaiah Crowell but has a rushing touchdown in back to back games and provides most of his value via the passing game. He has seen his target share rise each week with 5, 6, 7, and 10 targets and now has over 200 yards through the air. I won’t be touching Alshon Jeffery in any format this week as not only has he underperformed through four weeks, he also gets a terrible matchup and is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. I like Sterling Shepard and John Brown in this tier who make nice stacking options with their quarterbacks(Manning & Palmer) who I mentioned in tier one.

Tier 6

Things get even tougher in the final tier this week as there is no one name that stands out, which I guess should help level out the ownership. I love the speed of J.J. Nelson vs. the Eagles defense but he presents a ton of risk as he has taken the biggest hit since the return of John Brown who I mentioned earlier. I do, however, like his teammate Andre Ellington who is working in a committee with Chris Johnson and despite being out-touched in the run game over the past three weeks(36-12), has been getting the majority of the targets out of the backfield(27 last three games) and has piled up 157 yards receiving over the past three games. Despite a tough matchup vs. the Panthers, my only other target in this tier is Ameer Abdullah who scored his first touchdown last week on a seaosn high 20 carries and 94 yards.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 29, 2017

*Chris Durell*

Lineuplab.com - DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 29, 2017

The final weekend of the regular season is upon us and there are still some teams with tons of motivation as they fight for their playoff lives. For fantasy, we will want to focus on these situations for the most part, but don’t forget about the young players looking to make an impact as they play for a spot next season. Let’s jump right in and take a look at a few top pitchers and stacks for tonight.

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke
Opponent – @ KC
DraftKings – $11,300
FanDuel – $9,500

The last week of the season is a real challenge when selecting pitchers and there is no such thing as a “safe” play. I lean Greinke at the top as Strasburg was held to just 83 pitches in his last start. Greinke also comes with some risk as the Diamondbacks have locked up the top wildcard spot in the NL but at least you get a bit of a discount on both sites. Greinke is also coming off his worst start of the season but overall, is having a fantastic season all while pitching in a top 3 hitters park. He has given us a ton of upside with his highest K rate(9.57 K/9) since the 2011 season with an impressive 3.18 ERA and 3.34 xFIP. Although he has been better at home, you can’t ignore the park upgrade for him tonight in Kansas City facing a Royals team that ranks 24th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

Dan Straily
Opponent – vs. ATL
DraftKings – $7,100
FanDuel – $7,400

The value play of the day is Dan Straily who will be at home Friday night facing a Braves team that has really stumbled down the stretch. They sit second to last in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 14 days and also sit in the bottom third of the league vs. right-handed pitching. For Straily, it has been a huge rebound after getting blown up for eight earned runs vs. the Phillies a couple weeks back. Since then, he has allowed just two earned runs over his last 11 innings pitched and flashed a ton of upside with 17 strikeouts. The only knock is that in those two starts he has allowed seven free passes but I am not too worried as he has been much better than that all season with 2.82 BB/9 rate. All things considered, he is in play in all formats with a low to mid $7K price tag on both sites.

 

Top Stack

Colorado Rockies vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu(LAD)

The Rockies are one of the teams fighting for their playoff lives as they try to hold off the Brewers for the second wildcard in the National League. Lucky for them they open the final regular season series at home in Coors which, once again, ranks as the top hitters park in the league. They will face Hyun-Jin Ryu who was removed from his last start after getting hit in the arm and with the Dodgers already locked into the playoffs, I don’t expect them to run him out there for a full start. In one sense, that is a good thing as he has been fairly consistent in the second half allowing more than two earned runs just twice. On the other hand, he has been prone to giving up home runs(16.8% HR/FB rate) and got destroyed in his last start in Coors in mid-May. Look for the Rockies to put forward their best effort with everything on the line in the final days of the season.

Top Hitters to Stack: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Matt Harvey(NYM)

Going a little off the board here with my second stack but it has more to do with the pitcher than the team he is facing. The Phillies have struggled to score runs all season but should be able to kick off their final series in style facing Matt Harvey. He returned to the Mets rotation at the start of September and has picked up right where he left off, pitching bad! In those four starts and one relief appearance, he has allowed a total of 24 earned runs in 18.1 innings(11.78 ERA) and has given up four home runs(18% HR/FB rate) while striking out just 10 and walking nine batters. If ever a time to jump on the Phillies, it would be tonight.

Top Hitters to Stack: Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

 

Thank you for reading and if you have any questions as lineup lock approaches please contact me via Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9)






DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 28, 2017

*Chris Durell*

Lineuplab.com - DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 28, 2017

 

Starting Pitchers

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Lineuplab.com

Sonny Gray
Opponent – vs. TB
DraftKings – $11,700
FanDuel – $9,200

With the Nationals likely to limit and not push Strasburg again tonight(85 pitches last outing), I turn to Sonny Gray as my top pitcher. The Yankees have clinched a birth in the playoffs but still have an outside shot at capturing the AL East with four games remaining. Sure, they will need some help from Red Sox opponents but all they can do is go out there and win. Gray has been very consistent for the pinstripers since joining them in August, recording a 3.12 ERA as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 10 starts. Gray has also posted his highest K/9 rate(8.46) since his rookie season and it gets a boost tonight vs. the Rays who strikeout nearly 25% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. He is safe in all formats.

Sean Manaea
Opponent – @ TEX
DraftKings – $6,200
FanDuel – $6,500

Consistency is not a word we will use with Manaea who enters tonight with a 4.56 ERA but considering the price and smaller slate, he is in play as a SP2 on DraftKings. His splits are pretty glaring as right-handed bats have had their way with him(.351 wOBA) while he has shut down lefties(.262 wOBA). That is good news for tonight as the Rangers are likely to have three or four lefties in the lineup(Odor, Choo, Mazara, Gallo). The Rangers have also been terrible down the stretch ranking dead last in wOBA(.244) and wRC+(42) over the last 14 days with a crazy 31% K rate. There is definitely some risk here but the price is in a great spot that allows you to pair him with Gray and load up on bats tonight.

Top Stack

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Lineuplab.com

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Edwin Jackson(WSH)

The top stack of the night comes from a team that has been out of the playoff picture for some time now. That hasn’t stopped them from closing out the season strong as they sit with a .351 wOBA and 114 wRC+ over the last seven days. It should be no problem for them to add to those numbers tonight as they get the best matchup on the board facing Edwin Jackson who has been a complete dumpster fire, for lack of a better term. He has made four starts since the calendar turned to September, giving up 22 earned runs in 16 innings including multiple home runs in each game. The best part is that the Pirates do not come with premium prices in a premium matchup.

Top Hitters to Stack: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, David Freese, Adam Frazier

Also Consider: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Hendricks(CHC), New York Yankees vs. Jacob Faria(TB)

Thank you for reading and if you have any questions as lineup lock approaches please contact me via Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9)

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 4

Lineuplab.com - Start Winning on Draftkings and Fanduel

Week 4 in the 2017 NFL season is upon us and I am very excited to bring you a new weekly article looking at the DraftKings Pick’Em games. I will be breaking down each Tier and who is likely to be the chalk and who makes a nice pivot to separate yourself in the large field contests. When projecting ownership for fantasy, my main source is always FanShareSports. They track all relevant articles as well as social media mentions and put it all together in an easy to view “Most Tagged List” with sentiment ratings. It’s a great way to determine who is chalk and who will most likely be low owned. This week DraftKings has changed up their slate designations giving us just two Pick’Em slates. I will be looking only at the Sunday Early Only this week. With all that said, let’s jump right into the article.

Ezekiel Elliott - DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

TIER 1

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The first tier has three elite wide receivers and looking at FanShareSports, it appears that A.J. Green is going to be the chalk here. He currently leads all wideouts in tags with 16 and is one of just two at the moment with double-digit start calls. It makes sense as Green gets the best matchup of the three facing the Browns who rank 13th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts(32.3). In comparison, Antonio Brown has nine tags(7 start) and Julio Jones has seven tags(1 start). While Julio holds the Q tag this week, he is my top pivot in tier one. He has seen his targets increase each week and is the only receiver in this group on home field.

TIER 2

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

We get three elite running backs in tier two and the tags are fairly close at this point between Bell(14), McCoy(12), and Elliott(10). Gameflow is huge for running backs and looking at the Vegas lines, Ezekiel Elliot has the edge as the Cowboys are currently -6 at home to the Rams while McCoy and Bills are eight-point dogs. Bell and the Steelers are small -2.5 favorites on the road but the total is only 42. Looking at the matchups, Elliott and McCoy get the slight edge over bell as the Rams rank 30th and the Falcons 29th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs while the Ravens rank 18th. Elliott would be my top choice followed by Bell who has torched the Ravens for 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of their last three meetings. He has also received 20 targets in those three games with an additional touchdown scored.

TIER 3

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier three expands to five players with a mix of running backs and wideouts. As of Wednesday afternoon, Devonta Freeman leads all five players with 14 tags (8 start) with fellow running backs Todd Gurley(9 tags, 4 for start) and Christian McCaffrey(9 tags, 7 for start) right behind. Of the three backs, Freeman has, by far, the worst matchup as the Bills rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points allowed. Gurley faces the Cowboys who rank 24th and McCaffrey gets the best matchup vs. the Pats who rank 31st through three games. While McCaffrey is seeing split carries with Jonathan Stewart, he has been heavily involved in the passing game with 23 targets which trails only the Bears Tarik Cohen. Bot wideouts make great pivots as they sit fourth and fifth in tags in this tier. Diggs has seven tags and has been terrific this season with two games over 90 yards receiving, both with two touchdowns. Cooks would be my deep pivot play as he has seen just three tags so far and appears to have built some chemistry with Tom Brady(caught game-winning TD last Sunday) after catching just five balls on 11 targets in the first two weeks.

TIER 4

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier four gives us a mix of each non-quarterback position and so far this week is very chalky. Each player besides Dez Bryant has seen double-digit tags on FanShare with DeAndre Hopkins leading the way with 10 start calls. He faces a Titans team that ranks 29th in DraftKings points allowed per game to wideouts and leads everyone in the NFL with 12.3 targets per game. Both Cook and Fournetter have nice matchups as well as both the Jets(26th) and Lions(25th) rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. I will be fading Gronk this week in both salary cap contests and pick’em as he draws one of the worst matchups for tight ends as the Panthers rank 3rd overall in DraftKings points per game to the tight end position.

TIER 5

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The first of two quarterback tiers gives us some interesting options. Andy Dalton and Dak Prescott are the only two that have seen double-digit tags on FanShare so far with Dalton having the best matchup of the two as the Browns rank 25th in DraftKings points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Cam Newton is having a rough start to the season after offseason surgery but gets the best matchup on paper this Sunday as the Pats rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. If you are looking to completely separate yourself in the large tournaments I would consider Matthew Stafford who has just one tag right now as he faces a tough Vikings defense on the road. He does, however, lead all five of these QB’s with an average of 19.6 Dk points per game.

TIER 6

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The second tier of quarterbacks includes a bunch of young guys and the veteran Super Bowl Champ, Joe Flacco. The most popular choice will definitely be rookie Deshaun Watson who nearly took down Bill Belichick and the Pats in Gillette Stadium last week. He only attempted 31 passes but threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while also using his legs running eight times for 41 yards. While the Pats rank dead last vs. QB’s so far, the Titans aren’t far behind ranking 29th, allowing 22.7 DK points per game. I have no problem eating the chalk here in this tier. I will be fading Bortles simply due to the fact he is the only one of the QB’s that is a favorite this week which takes away from his projected pass attempts. I will also be fading Flacco who has only thrown for 300+ yards vs. the Steelers once in his last nine games. My secondary option in this tier would be Deshone Kizer who has attempted 30+ passe sin each of his first three games (47 last game) and like Watson, uses his legs effectively with 17 rushes for 87 yards and two touchdowns.

TIER 7

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Tier seven is lead in a big way by Joe Mixon of the Bengals who is expected to see a bigger role this week. If I had to guess, I would expect Mixon to be about 40% or more owned in this tier as he is the only player to see double-digit tags(18) thus far and sits third overall which includes all positions. The Bengals are also road favorites which helps the game flow but the matchup is not in his favor as the Browns rank 10th in DK points allowed to running backs. The Patriots wideouts also face a tough matchup as the Panthers rank 6th in DK points allowed to WR’s but they do have Tom Brady throwing to them and if I had to choose one it would be Chris Hogan who has much more upside as a deep threat. Adam Thielen and Golden Tate face off in Minnesota this week and I would lean Thielen as Tate will likely draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes who has shut everyone down this season

TIER 8

DraftKings Pick'Em Breakdown - Week 4 - NFL - Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

The final tier has two tight ends this week and I will be avoiding both as the position has been very inconsistent this season. We also get a choice between two of the Patriot running backs and game-flow makes the decision easy for me this week. The Patriots are currently nine-point favorites at home and projected to score around 28-30 points. That works into Mike Gillislee’s favor as he is the pounder of the two and gets the goaline work. Of the four wideouts, I lean Rishard Matthews who is averaging eight targets per week and has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 15 games.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!






DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 22, 2017

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 22, 2017

Welcome back to the second last Friday in daily fantasy baseball as far as the regular season goes. Tonight we have a full 15 game slate with some nice pitching options across the board combined with some teams in great matchups that make excellent stacks. Let’s jump right into the picks.

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke - MLB Lineup Picks - Lineuplab
Zack Greinke
Opponent – vs. MIA
DraftKings – $12,100
FanDuel – $10,100

Friday night gives us a few more options than last night and it starts with Zack Greinke. As I have said many times this season, don’t worry about the park factor with Greinke as he has been lights out at home this season with a 2.33 ERA while limiting opponents to a low .196 average and .250 wOBA. He has also seen an uptick in strikeouts with a 10.23 K/9 rate at home vs. a 8.7 K/9 on the road. The matchup presents a bit of risk going up against Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins but Greinke comes in red hot holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts. Roll him out in all formats tonight.

Michael Wacha
Opponent – @ PIT
DraftKings – $8,200
FanDuel – $8,200

For a value SP2 on DraftKings or GPP value on FanDuel I will be turning to Michael Wacha. He doesn’t flash a ton of upside but has posted a career-high 8.5 K/9 rate(not counting rookie season with 9 starts) in 2017. He has also been consistent lately holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four straight starts lowering his xFIP below 4.00 for the season. The one thing that makes or break his value is the control but if he can limit the free passes tonight should be able to hit or exceed value. He faces a struggling Pirates team that ranks 27th in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 14 days while walking a league-low 5.4% of the time.

Top Stack

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Adam Conley(MIA)

The Diamondbacks enter Friday night’s action with the highest implied run total of any team and while they will be the chalk, have a near elite matchup. First of all, down the stretch it is important to target teams who are playing for something and the D-Backs hit on that narrative as they look to hold off the Rockies and Brewers in the NL Wildcard. They get a great matchup tonight vs. Adam Conley who has struggled to a 5.20 ERA and 5.38 xFIP this season and has given up nine home runs over his last six starts and 17 for the season(13.3% HR/FB rate and 38% hard contact). While the D-Backs have been slightly worse this season vs. southpaws don’t be fooled as they still have a ton of upside bats at the top of the lineup.

Top Hitters to Stack: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, J.D. Martinez, Chris Iannetta

Also Consider: Atlanta Braves vs. Ben Lively(PHI), Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Norris(DET), New York Yankees vs. Marco Estrada(TOR)
Thank you for reading and if you have any questions as lineup lock approaches please contact me via Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9)

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 21, 2017

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for September 21, 2017

Welcome back for another exciting Thursday in daily fantasy baseball. With two early games today, we will turn our attention to the nine-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. Et tonight.

Starting Pitchers

Dallas Keuchel
Opponent – vs. CWS
DraftKings – $11,300
FanDuel – $8,900

I really don’t love either of the two top-tier pitchers on the main slate tonight but side with Keuchel for a couple reasons. He has the edge over Carlos Martinez in ERA(2.96), xFIP(3.43), Ground Ball Rate(66%) and Hard Contact against(24.4%). He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of CarMart but gets to toss in the best pitchers park in the big leagues and faces a team in the White Sox who rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored this season. All things considered, it’s Keuchel in cash games all the way tonight but I like the pivot to Carlos Martinez in GPP’s.

Tyler Anderson
Opponent – @ SD
DraftKings – $7,500
FanDuel – $6,400

If you are looking for a value pitcher to pair with CarMart or Keuchel consider Tyler Anderson who is back from a knee injury and looking good. He made has made a four-inning relief appearance and a six-inning start so far and has allowed just three hits and zero earned runs while striking out seven and walking just two. He showed us K per inning stuff early in the season and no better spot to back to that than against the Padres who strikeout 25.1% vs. left-handed pitching.

Top Stacks

Colorado Rockies vs. Clayton Richard(SD)

This could be one of those situations where we can get the Rockies much less owned than if they were at home. Overall, they have been a bottom third offense on the road but have won six of their last 10 away from Coors and also carry the narrative of fighting for their lives trying to hold on to the NL Wildcard. The one split that does lean their way is their hitting vs. lefties with a .342 wOBA and .191 ISO on the season. They are led by Nolan Arenado who leads the league against southpaws with a crazy .536 wOBA, 223 wRC+, and .438 ISO. Tonight they face Clayton Richard who hasn’t been the worst pitcher in baseball this season(3.84 xFIP) but doesn’t strike anyone out(6.6 K/9) and gives up the long ball(19.75 HR/FB rate). He also struggles much more against right-handed batters giving up a .373 wOBA and 37% hard contact(.315/25% to LH).

Top Hitters to Stack: Nolan Arenado, D.J. LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

Minnesota Twins vs. Jordan Zimmermann(DET)

Jordan Zimmerman is back after sitting out for over two weeks with neck pain. That means it’s once again time to load up on whoever he is pitching against. Zimmermann has really fallen off in 2017 with a 6.18 ERA, 5.49 xFIP, and is striking out less than six batters per nine. On top of that, he is giving up 38.9% hard contact and over a home run per start. Tonight he faces a Twins team that sits near the top of the league offensively over the last 14 days with a .351 wOBA and sit tied with 25 home runs in that time(.225 ISO).

Top Hitters to Stack: Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer

 

Thank you for reading and if you have any questions as lineup lock approaches please contact me via Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9)