Contrarian DFS Plays for NFL GPP Contests – Week 2 – 9/14
*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS. He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.
Week one is in the books. It was one of straight chalk in the DFS world, as Conner, Kamara, Thomas, Gronk, and Allen all came through with big weeks at high ownership. If you followed the masses, it was a good start. The NFL is rarely as straight forward as it was last weekend. Keep that in mind as we move forward into week two and look at some GPP stacks to consider.
‘The Chalkie Talkie’ – Steelers vs. Chiefs
This game, rightfully so, has the highest total on the board for Sunday. Neither defense is much to fear, and both teams are stacked with elite playmakers at every level of their offenses. If you plan to play this game in GPP’s, be sure to mix and match with some of the players who are likely to be less owned than the Conner’s, AB’s and Tyfreak’s. Less owned options include:
Vance McDonald – The last time we saw Vance in action, he was connecting with Big Ben to single handedly keep the Steelers in the divisional playoff game last January. He is battling a foot injury so keep an eye on injury news, but he is a great receiving TE who is likely to go under owned. If he is full tilt, he’s a steal on both sites at their posted prices. In a week where many will play Jonnu Smith, in an effort to pay up at other positions, McDonald is a far superior play.
Kareem Hunt – Limited to just 16 carries and one target last week by Head Coach Andy Reid, we can safely say that Hunt was a disappointment in a game where the Chiefs had a big lead. Enter game flow and matchups here, and Hunt looks like a terrific, potentially contrarian play on Sunday. The Chiefs cannot afford to get into a track meet at Heinz Field; they simply don’t have the defense to match up here. The Steelers run defense has not been sound since the loss of Ryan Shazier last season. Vince Williams was sound last week against the Browns, but the Chiefs have a better offensive line. Feeding Hunt and Kelce to move the chains, keeping Ben and AB on the sideline is the path to victory for Kansas City. I expect Hunt’s opportunities to increase to 23-25 on Sunday.
Finally, Travis Kelce was only targeted on six of 27 passes last weekend. That will not continue over the course of the season and this is a good chance to buy low on the most athletic tight end in the game.
Two alternative game stacks are evident after running numbers for Sunday.
Houston at Tennessee – This game has the makings of a shootout. Houston, with Watson, has the ability to put up a ton of points every time they take the field. Watson looked rusty against New England last week, but should get Will Fuller back here, which will allow him to stretch the Titans defense. Hopkins is another great play here and Corey Davis was targeted 13 times last weekend. Corey could be a household name in fantasy circles by the end of the season. The only thing giving us some pause here is Mariota’s health. The Titans have already said that they’ll play two quarterbacks, which is not ideal. Keep an eye on news as to how the Titans plan to play it as Sunday approaches.
Detroit at San Francisco – This one is my personal favorite to potentially unseat Pittsburgh KC as the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Lions were a complete and total mess on Monday night in New York and the whole world saw it. Matt Stafford is an experienced quarterback who will quickly forget what transpired last week and this game presents an opportunity for their passing offense in a big way. The 49ers defensive backfield can be attacked. Conversely, Jimmy G has also has a great matchup and will look to get Kittle (my number 1 ranked TE this week) and Garcon involved early and often. Pettis is another interesting contrarian cheap play at WR as he had five targets after Goodwin left last week’s game and nearly had a second TD catch. Stack this game up.
Pure GPP plays
Quincy Enunwa, NY Jets – 10 targets last week, and with no valid threat at TE, should continue to be Darnold’s safety blanket.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit – Role increased last week, talent has always been there for this young WR.
Mike Williams, LAC – Anyone who follows the college game remembers Williams from his days at Clemson. He had a couple of drops last-weekend but he is a big dynamic athlete who, with good health, will be a top receiver down the road.
Chris Thompson, WSH – Thompson returned from injury and picked up right where he left off with seven targets from Alex Smith and five carries. The Cardinals presented no fight to the Redskins so the game flow worked against him. Provided the Colts keep this close, Thompson could be in for a big game.
Jalen Richard, OAK – So much attention was paid to the arrival of Doug Martin in Oakland. Richard stole the show and the usage in the Raiders 33-13 loss to the Rams on Monday night. The jitter bug back was targeted 11 times and had five carries. They travel to Denver this weekend and Denver struggles with TE’s and receiving backs. Game flow could aid Richard again this week.
Ben Watson, NO – Watson was only targeted four times last weekend with Kamara and Thomas getting the majority of targets from Drew Brees. The Browns have an athletic defensive backfield and have the goods to slow down Kamara and Thomas to an extent. With all of that being said, the Browns have been brutal against the Tight End for the last three seasons. Watson and Brees have made big plays together in the recent past and a huge game from Watson falls squarely in the range of outcomes on Sunday.