Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 8/26/16
Chris Durell
TGIF! Welcome back to another exciting night of daily fantasy baseball. After several days of split slates we have a full 15 game main slate that will get started at 7 PM tonight. Looking at the pitching we have four aces on the mound with a nice mix value options that will help us fill our lineups with some bats in tournaments. Let’s take a look at a couple pitchers and a few stacking options.
Pitchers
Chris Sale FD 10700 DK 11700
Opponent – SEA (Hernandez) Park – @CHW
FD – 35.72 DK – 23.76
This could have easily had the lowest Vegas total of the day with two aces going head to head. I side with Sale in this matchup as the White Sox come in as early -125 home favorites as they have been hot, winning four of their last five games. Chris Sale has been one of the few bright spots for the team this year despite seeing a decline in his K rate overall but appears to have turned it around. In four August starts Sale has only picked up one win, no fault of his own, as he has pitched to a 3.67 xFIP with a 9.71 K/9 rate while walking under two batters per nine. The Mariners rank as one of the best teams when facing right handed pitching but somewhat struggle against southpaws as they rank 18th in wOBA with a 21.1% strikeout rate. Sale is safe in all formats today and may lean as a better GPP option in the mlb optimizer on DK.
David Phelps FD 7000 DK 8700
Opponent – SD (Cosart) Park – @MIA
FD – 31.47 DK – 20.65
Phelps has spent almost the entire season coming out of the bullpen and has been quite impressive with a 3.33 xFIP and 11.43 K.9 rate. The Marlins decided at the start of August to give him a shot in the rotation and could not have asked for better results. In four starts he has a 1.31 ERA which is supported by a low 2.78 xFIP. He has kept his K rate north of 11 K’s per nine while dealing over 50% ground balls. He has now won two straight starts in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh while striking out 17 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. Look for the trend to continue as Phelps gets the top matchup of the day vs. the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA and wRC+ against right handed pitching with a 24.7% strikeout rate. With his upside and low salary he is by far the top PTS/$ play at the position today.
Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Brandon Finnegan (Reds)
Park – Chase Field
Chase Field has been a top 5 hitters park all season and will get another matchup with a Vegas total of 10 or greater. I would put my money on the Over today as the Reds come to town and will put lefty Brandon Finnegan on the mound in game one. Even with the positive stretch recently it has been a struggle this season for Finnegan who is pitching to an awful 5.11 xFIP and comes in with a below average K rate(6.73 K/9) and sky high walk rate(4.45 BB/9). Things won’t get any easier today facing the D Backs who rank #1 overall in wOBA and #2 overall in wRC+ against left handed pitching. The top options to stack today in this order are Paul Goldschmidt, Jean Segura, Wellington Castillo, Rickie Weeks and Yasmany Tomas if he is back in the starting lineup tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pat Dean (Twins)
Park – Rogers Centre
The Jays are in a terrific spot on Friday night as they will face a weak southpaw in Rogers Centre. Pat Dean has been back and forth between the rotation and bullpen this season as the Twins try and get the rookie comfortable in the majors. His last start came back on June 17th where he only lasted 2.1 innings vs. the Yankees giving up seven earned runs on eight hits while not striking out one batter. In his six starts this season he has disappointed with a 4.83 K/9 rate, below average K rate(6.1 K/9) and high walk rate(3.77 BB/9). The Jays continue to crush left handed pitching and have several hitters who are great stacking options tonight. It starts with the reigning American League MVP Josh Donaldson. After that you can take you pick between Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin and even Edwin Encarnacion who has has reverse splits but has been red hot and is at the top of most offensive categories.