Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
Tier 1
While the Chiefs picked up their fourth loss in a row, both Travis Kelce (4 of 8, 94 yards, 2 TD) and Tyreke Hill (6 of 9, 185 yards, 2 TD) had monster fantasy days last week vs. the Jets. This week they get another plus matchup vs. a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th most passing yards per game (241.1) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass in 2017. They share the targets from Alex Smith pretty equally but I favor Kelce slightly here as the Raiders rank 15th in DraftKings points per game to wide receivers but 26th vs. tight ends. Adam Thielen sits sixth overall in targets per game(9.3) this season and has been incredibly consistent with seven games with double-digit fantasy points and six with 15+ points but draws a tough matchup against the Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA vs. the pass. The game also has one of the lowest totals(41) of the week. All things considered, Thielen could be the low owned play in this tier. Finally, we have LeSean McCoy who had another productive week as he posted 93 yards on 15 carries and his third straight double-digit fantasy week. At the time of writing this, there is no Vegas total yet but I would fully expect the Bills to be at least three-point home favorites vs. the Colts giving McCoy a shot at a high workload this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2
Marvin Jones easily gets the best matchup in this tier facing the Bucs who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (267.3) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. The issue this week is the status of his quarterback Matthew Stafford who left last weeks game with a hand injury after being stepped on. If Stafford is back behind center I like Jones a lot but will probably fade if it’s backup Jake Rudock taking the snaps. I have strong feeling A.J. Green will be the chalk in this tier coming off a big game vs. the Steelers on Monday night where he caught seven of his 16 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns (could have been three if not for a bad penalty). He has now caught at least one touchdown in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. Jameis Winston returned to action last week and I was expecting a big game from Evans who has been a target monster all season but it never came to fruition as Evans only caught two of his six targets for 33 yards. Evans will be in a tough spot this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay who ranks as the #12 cornerback on PFF. If he was somehow able to avoid complete shadow coverage, I think he could be a sneaky play as the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game(245.3) this season. Michael Crabtree returns from his one-game suspension this week and gets a plus matchup against the Chiefs who rank 24th overall in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Raiders are also four-point underdogs so the game script could be perfect for Derek Carr to see 35+ pass attempts.
Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree
Tier 3
Kareem Hunt was once again unable to take advantage of a plus matchup and will easily be the lowest owned option in this tier as I am sure most people(including myself) are tired of waiting for the return of his early-season success. Devante Adams has been Brett Hundley’s top target but the passing game was not needed last week in a 26-20 win over the Bucs as the Packers rushed for 199 yards and picked up two defensive touchdowns. Look for Adams to get back on track this week against the Browns who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass. I talked about Marvin Jones in the last tier and the same sentiment goes for Golden Tate. He has a great matchup against the Bucs but at this time it is uncertain if Matthew Stafford will be back with an injured throwing hand. Stay tuned for more news. Josh Gordon made his return to the football field last week and was impressive considering he sat out nearly three years. He promptly made a ridiculous catch along the sideline and ended up catching four of his team-high 11 targets for 85 yards. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9), rank 21st in DVOA vs. the pass, and rank 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devante Adams, Josh Gordon
Tier 4
I mentioned Matthew Stafford in previous tiers when talking about Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and the update here is that he was limited Wednesday with his bruised hand. He is one of the toughest players in the league and a must-win for the team so I expect to see him on the field but will be avoiding the Lions offense for fantasy. Next up we have a huge matchup between the Vikings and Panthers and very similar value coming from both quarterbacks. Both Cam Newton and Case Keenum have put up 17+ DraftKings points in four straight games but Cam has displayed a little more upside with a 35 point ceiling. A lot of that has to do with his ability to run the ball, especially around the endzone. Both defenses are stout and rank Top 10 in fantasy points against the quarterback and with playoff and top seeds on the line, I fully expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Sunday so neither QB is that intriguing for fantasy. Without Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree last week, Derek Carr was very serviceable(22 of 36 for 287 and 1 TD) leading the Raiders to a big win over the Giants. He now gets both his receivers back and will face a Chiefs team that has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game(252.8) and rank 26th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo who gets the best matchup of all the options in this tier as the Texans rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. The only issue here is that it’s his second career start and he lacks options in the receiving game.
Top Target in this Tier – Derek Carr
Tier 5
Starting at the top Dak Prescott has been the best option on paper in this tier with five games of 20+ DraftKings points and has thrown for multiple touchdowns seven times. The issue has been the loss of Ezekiel Elliot as he has only done it once since losing his star running back. He does get a nice matchup this week vs. a Giants team that has given up the third-most passing yards per game(260.2) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. I fully expect 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes as the Cowboys still sit in a position to grab a wildcard spot. Next up is my other top option under center this week with Jameis Winston who returned after a three-week absence. He looked pretty darn good completing 21 of 32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without really getting much from Mike Evans(2 of 6 for 33 yards) and I think he will be going back to his top option this week with a ton of volume. Believe it or not, Andy Dalton has arguably been the most consistent option in this tier lately with multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last seven starts. The only issue is the upside is limited as he thrown for 300+ yards and topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I don’t really have strong feelings for any of the bottom three options but if I had to choose one of them it would be Deshone Kizer who now has the services of Josh Gordon who made his return last week and was heavily targeted and delivered with 85 yards. Despite being inconsistent and inaccurate (52.5% completions), Kizer has shown some upside with his legs and topped 20 fantasy points twice in his last four starts. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9) and rank 19th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Deshone Kizer
Tier 6
If you are looking for volume, it will be impossible to ignore what Evan Engram has been doing. Over the last seven games, he has tallied 59 targets and recorded 15 or more fantasy points five times with a season-high 22.9 points last week with Geno Smith under center. This week he gets Eli Manning back and with Sterling Shepard banged up, should once again see lots of volume. Christian McCaffrey should also see a ton of volume this week for two reasons. First of all, Jonathan Stewart is banged up(toe, ankle, foot) and didn’t practice Wednesday. Second, the Vikings defense should have a nice handle on the passing game downfield meaning we could see Cam dump it off to the running back quite a bit this week. Lamar Miller has been a bit of a disappointment from an upside standpoint this season but has displayed a consistent floor with 50+ rushing yards in all but one game and double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season. He gets a near elite matchup this week vs. the 49ers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(123.9) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Jamaal Williams has taken over as the Packers #1 back lately with 20+ rushing attempts in three of his last four games and broke the 100-yard mark last week vs. the Bucs. He has also scored in back to back games. The matchup is a downgrade this week as the Browns have actually been really good against the rush as they are one of just nine teams to allow under 100 yards per game for the season. Alfred Morris has also done a fine job as a backup who has stepped in due to the suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. He is coming off his best game of the season last week when he received 27 rushing attempts and posted 127 yards and a touchdown. He will likely see the same kind of volume this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 130.7 yards per game on the ground.
Top Targets in this Tier – Evan Engram, Alfred Morris, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 7
A couple things stand out in this tier starting with the matchup for Devin Funchess. He will be shadowed for most of the game by Xavier Rhodes who is coming off a terrific game against the Falcons as he completely shut down Julio Jones. The other note here is the that Amari Cooper cleared the concussion protocol but still missed Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury and is still listed as questionable. If he were to suit up and get on the field, I like him for a low owned option. Carlos Hyde does not get the greatest matchup as the Texans have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards per game and rank 4th in DraftKings points allowed to backs but he does have somewhat of a safe floor as he has been targeted a ton lately with 49 over his last six games. He has also put up double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season and 20 or more four times. Marshawn Lynch is another running back on my radar this week as he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and he has scored in three of his last four games. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (129.4).
Top Targets in this Tier – Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde
Tier 8
The hamstring injury for Sterling Shepard is something to monitor as Sunday approaches as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he suits up he gets a nice matchup vs. the Cowboys who rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Jordan Howard failed to bounce back last week as he tallied just 38 yards on the ground but gets another nice matchup to get back on the horse facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game(123.8) and ranks 22nd in DraftKings points per game to running backs. The only issue here might be getting a score as this game has the lowest Vegas total of the week(38). Duke Johnson let us down last week with just three DK points but has been a consistent floor play all season with eight double-digit DK point games thanks to his target share in the offense. The Vikings running backs have a tough matchup this week facing a Panthers team who has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game(88.6) so I would lean McKinnon who leads the way in the passing game between him and Latavius Murray with an average of 4.5 per game on the season. Both tight ends get plus matchups this week as the Bills rank 24th and the Giants 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. I lean Jack Doyle here as he comes in ahead with 6.8 targets per game to Witten’s 5.7 and Doyle has also tallied double-digit DK points in four of his last six games.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Jack Doyle, Duke Johnson
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!