Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

The Catcher position has historically been a tough slot to fill in fantasy baseball. There is usually a small tier of excellent options, followed by a precipitous drop off to the next best group of players. This season will be no different. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some catchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Sanchez has firmly established himself as the premier fantasy option at catcher. He had a monster campaign in 2017, hitting .278 with 33 home runs, 90 RBI, and a .345 OBP. He did all that in just 122 games as he missed almost a month at the beginning of the season due to injury. Although he’s only played in 175 games in his career, he has already hit a whopping 53 home runs. All of his supporting numbers back up his counting stats, so there is no indication that he should slow down this season. He’ll be part of a lethal lineup including fellow sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, which should leave him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He will likely be drafted as early as the second or third round in your league, but he should be worth it based on how much better he is than any of the other catching options.

Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

Like Sanchez, Contreras is another young catcher who has quickly vaulted himself into the upper echelon of the position. He played in just 117 games last year but batted .276 with 21 home runs, 74 RBI, and a .356 OBP. Sanchez posted a 4.1 WAR last season, but Contreras was right behind him with a 3.9 WAR. He batted .283 with a .356 OBP in 517 career minor league games, so he’s proven that he can hit for a high average and get on base. The second best fantasy option at catcher comes down to Contreras and Buster Posey, but I give Contreras the edge because he hits for much more power.

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Posey has been as reliable as it gets for catchers, playing in at least 140 games in six straight seasons. That’s extremely valuable when you consider the volatility of the position. He’s been just as valuable in the batting average department, hitting a lofty .308 for his career. He also posted a .400 OBP last year and has an OBP of at least .362 in each of the last seven seasons. The problem with Posey is his power numbers have regressed, bottoming out at just 12 home runs last year. He only had 67 RBI as a result and while the Giants lineup should be improved this season, the lack of power will limit Posey’s upside. There is a big dropoff in production after you get past Posey when it comes to catchers, so it might be best to wait on the position if you can’t draft one of the top three options.

Overvalued Players

Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Molina had a stellar season last year, batting .273 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. The problem is, he had only 19 home runs in the previous three seasons combined. He had also hit more than 14 home runs in a season only once in his career heading into last year. He had an 11% home run to fly ball ratio last year, which is significantly higher than his career mark of 7%. His ADP is 148.77 in the NFCB, the sixth highest among catchers. In terms of general draft position, that’s a higher ADP than players including Greg Bird (153), Adrian Beltre (159.27) and Gregory Polanco (160.59). Don’t overpay for Molina just because the catcher position is shallow, especially considering his abnormal 2017 campaign.

Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners

Zunino was a valuable fantasy asset last season, setting career-highs in batting average (.251), home runs (25) and RBI (64). He’s shown he can hit for power previously in his career, but he had never batted above .214 in a single season. He is a candidate to see a significant drop in batting average as his BABIP was .355 last year. Prior to that, he had never had a BABIP above .267. With the jump in home runs across the league, his value takes a big hit if he hits closer to .200 this year. His current ADP is 161.10, ahead of players like Jon Gray (165.99), Brett Gardner (180.65) and Matt Carpenter (181.99). Again, you should be looking for value in your draft, so it would be wise not to reach for Zunino at that price.

Undervalued Players

Welington Castillo, Chicago White Sox

Castillo had a tremendous power season for the Orioles last year, hitting 20 home runs despite playing only 96 games. He hasn’t played more than 113 games in any of the last five seasons but has hit at least 13 home runs four times. With a 36.4% hard hit percentage for his career, he has been able to post BABIP of at least .336 in three of the last five years. He could reach a career-high in games played for a rebuilding White Sox team if he can stay healthy, giving him the potential to provide valuable numbers. His current ADP is tenth among catchers, but don’t be surprised if he finishes ranked higher than that when the season is all said and done.

Robinson Chirinos, Texas Rangers

Chirinos played in only 88 games last year but still managed to hit 13 home runs to go along with a .255 batting average. He’s never played more than 93 games in his career but has shown impressive power by hitting at least 10 home runs in three of the last four years. Not only did he have a 20% home run to fly ball ratio last year, but he also posted a career-high 11% walk percentage. He could be in line for a bit of a regression in terms of his batting average this year, but his overall numbers might not differ too much from Zunino’s. Considering he is being selected about 100 picks later in drafts, I’d much rather take a chance on Chirinos.