Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017
**Mike Barner**
Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017
The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.
Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.
While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.
Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.
Old Faces In New Places
Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers
You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.
Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.
Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.
Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins
Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.
His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.
Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.
Overrated Players
Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals
Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.
Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.
Denver Broncos
To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.
The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.
A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.
Undervalued Players
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles
On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.
Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.
Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.
Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons
Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.
The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.
A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule
Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.
Favorable Schedules
Houston Texans
The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.
Difficult Schedules
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins
I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.