MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 21

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at CIN, vs. BAL

The Indians starting rotation is so deep that Clevinger often gets lost behind Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. His contributions should not go unnoticed, though, considering his 3.38 ERA that is backed by a 3.35 FIP. After issuing at least 4.4 BB/9 in both of his first two seasons, Clevinger has a much improved 2.8 BB/9 this year. He’s also allowed just 13 home runs across 146.2 innings. He won’t have to deal with the DH pitching at Cincinnati in his first start of Week 21. The Reds haven’t been hitting well of late either, averaging 3.5 runs over their last 10 games. The Orioles and their stripped-down lineup also present a favorable matchup in his second start, potentially setting up Clevinger for a valuable week.

J.A. Happ, New York Yankees: vs. TB, vs. TOR

Happ has pitched well since joining the Yankees, allowing four runs and recording 11 strikeouts across 12 innings. Desperate for help in their rotation, Happ could be a key addition for the Yankees down the stretch. His 4.07 ERA overall doesn’t exactly stand out, but he has a 1.14 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9. He also had a 5.22 ERA pitching in the Rogers Centre this year, so a move out of Toronto could provide a boost to his value. The Rays are in the bottom-third of baseball in runs scored and the Blue Jays lineup isn’t exactly all that imposing either, making Happ a great option for Week 21.

Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves: vs. MIA, vs. COL

Sanchez left his last outing early after getting hit on the calf, but he’s expected to be fine for his next start Tuesday. Sanchez finished with an ERA of 4.99 or higher in each of the last three seasons with the Tigers, but he’s been much improved with the Braves. While it will be hard for him to maintain his current 2.83 ERA, his FIP is still strong at 3.73. One of the main reasons for his success has been cutting back on allowing home runs. He allowed 1.7 HR/9 or more in each of his previous three seasons but has only allowed 1.0 HR/9 this year. His first start against the Marlins is a great matchup since they have scored the second-fewest runs (444) in baseball. The Rockies are more dangerous, but they only have a .689 OPS on the road.

Blaine Hardy, Detroit Tigers: vs. CWS, at MIN

After pitching out of the bullpen for his entire career, Hardy has been given a chance to start this year. He’s made 12 starts over 22 appearances, posting a 3.63 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP overall. He’s shown good control by issuing just 2.3 BB/9, but he doesn’t have much strikeout upside with a 6.5 K/9. That being said, you might be able to squeeze some value out of him. The White Sox and Twins both struggle to score runs and are in the bottom third of baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching. In two previous starts against the White Sox, Hardy allowed two runs over 12.1 innings. He’s had similar success against the Twins, giving up four runs across 11 innings in two outings. Hardy is still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners: at OAK, vs. LAD

Gonzales has pitched well in first extended look in the majors, posting a 3.79 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and a 1.20 WHIP. He only has a 7.9 K/9, but he’s shown excellent control with a 1.6 BB/9. He did allow seven runs in his last start against the Rangers, marking the third time in his last nine outings that he allowed at least five runs. The A’s and Dodgers both have deep lineups that can score a lot of runs, which could prove troublesome for Gonzales. With his lack of strikeout upside, this might be the week to put him on your bench.

Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. BOS, vs. NYM

Pivetta has been a tremendous source for strikeouts with an 11.1 K/9. His 4.51 ERA doesn’t entirely paint an accurate picture of his performance, either, based on his 3.47 FIP. His WHIP is also down from 1.51 last year to 1.28 this season. However, he can tend to give up runs in bunches, which could be disastrous against the Red Sox. His second start against the Mets is extremely favorable, but the damage might have already been done to his week by the time he gets there.

Ryan Borucki, Toronto Blue Jays: at KC, at NYY

Borucki has a 2.81 ERA across eight starts for the Blue Jays, but his 1.38 WHIP doesn’t inspire much confidence. He’s allowed just one home run over 48 innings, so his ERA could increase quickly if he can’t continue to keep hitters inside the park. Don’t count on him for many strikeouts, either, based on his 6.0 K/9. His first matchup this week against the Royals is certainly in his favor. While he did hold the Yankees to one run across even innings previously, it’s important to note that game was in Toronto. The Yankees have a .739 OPS on the road but a much better .834 OPS at home. The start against the Royals makes him an enticing streaming option, but I don’t think he’s worth the risk against the Yankees.