MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 7
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Injuries to starting pitchers are starting to pile up around baseball, the latest of which saw both Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Clayton Kershaw (biceps) land on the DL. Your starting fantasy staff might not be as strong as a result. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. SF, vs. NYM
Nola has followed up his breakout campaign last year with a 2.17 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP through seven starts. His K/9 is only 6.9, but expect that to increase sooner rather than later since he has finished with a K/9 of at least 9.8 in back-to-back seasons. He has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .236 BABIP, but he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of the batters that he has faced and has a 33.2% O-swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), both of which would be career highs. The Giants and Mets are both in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, leaving Nola with the potential for a great week.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: vs. MIA, vs. CWS
Hendricks has a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, but a deeper diver indicates he has not pitched that well. His FIP sits at 5.31 and opponents have just a .223 BABIP. He’s been victimized by the long ball as well, allowing eight home runs in 36.2 innings. He only has a 0.9 HR/9 for his career, so expect some improvement from him in that area as the season wears on. He has already faced the Marlins once this season, allowing one earned run to go along with five strikeouts in six innings. The Marlins have also hit the fewest home runs (24) in baseball, which should help Hendricks with his homer problems. He also has the benefit of facing the White Sox at home, so he won’t have to face the designated hitter. Although he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, look for a valuable week from Hendricks.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. KC, vs. TB
Bundy has been unlucky this season, allowing a .345 BABIP to opposing hitters. It’s resulted to a 1.35 WHIP, but his 10.6 K/9 has helped offset the issue and result in a 3.76 ERA and 3.67 FIP. His increased K/9 can be attributed to his career-high marks in both O-swing % (38.2%) and swinging strike percentage (15.6%). He’s been roughed up in his last two outings, but that’s mainly because he allowed five home runs after giving up just one long ball in his first five starts combined. The Royals and Rays are both in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Bundy to rebound in Week 7.
Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at TB, at MIA
Newcomb was lined up to start twice last week, but the Braves altered their rotation by calling up promising rookie Mike Soroka. Newcomb now gets his two starts in Week 7 and will look to continue his excellent start to the season. He had control issues last year with a 5.1 BB/9, but he’s cut that down to 3.9 this season, some of which can be attributed to him throwing a first-pitch strike to 64.8% of the batters that he has faced. He also provides excellent strikeout upside with a 10.9 K/9. Newcomb has been a better pitcher on the road during his Major League career, posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 4.79 ERA at home. Amazingly, he’s still available in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, so he would make an excellent pickup this week if you can grab him.
Starters to Avoid
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals: at BAL, at CLE
Duffy is not off to a great start with a 5.63 ERA and 5.61 FIP through seven outings. He’s had a problem keeping runners off base with a 1.49 WHIP, but his opponents .292 BABIP is not high by any means. He is giving up a lot of solid contact with a 41% hard-hit rate that is almost 10 percentage points higher than his career mark. His BB/9 and HR/9 are both up as well, which is not a recipe for success. The Orioles only have a .629 OPS this season against right-handed pitchers but have hit lefties much better with a .720 OPS. The Indians are also in the top 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored overall, meaning this might be the week to put Duffy on your bench.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. SEA, vs. BOS
Stroman couldn’t be off to a much worse start, recording a 7.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His opponents .330 BABIP isn’t a lot higher than his .307 career BABIP allowed and he’s had significant control issues with a 4.5 BB/9. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he can’t afford to continue throwing a first-pitch strike to just 56.7% of the batters that he has faced this season. The Mariners and Red Sox are both in the top eight in the league in OPS against righties, so this could be a rough week for Stroman.
Jose Urena, Miami Marlins: at CHC, vs. ATL
Urena isn’t having a terrible season despite his 0-5 record, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside with just a 7.2 K/9 and his 43.1% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning as well. This week brings two very tough matchups, the first of which comes against a Cubs squad that scored five runs in four innings against him on opening day. He then has to face a Braves team that has scored the third-most runs in baseball, so this could be a bad week to take a chance on him in your lineup.