Week 7 brings yet another main Sunday slate in DFS with no Christian McCaffrey since the Panthers will be on a bye. We still have some excellent options to choose from, though, including some cheaper players with upside.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Running Backs
While only two teams will be on a bye in Week 5, the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS doesn’t have the most appealing running back options. Still, there are some key matchups to highlight that are worth exploiting.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The running back position isn’t nearly as deep for the main Sunday slate in Week 12 with the Rams and Chiefs on byes and all of the Thanksgiving games added to the usual Sunday and Monday primetime contests. There are still some great options to target, though, so let’s highlight a few that stand out. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Melvin Gordon III vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $8,600
Entering Week 11 as winners of five straight, the Chargers suffered a disappointing loss at the hands of the Broncos. Gordon wasn’t exactly efficient, but his 18 carries helped him finish with 69 rushing yards. However, he was heavily involved in the passing attack, catching all six of his targets for an additional 87 yards. Even though he failed to reach the end zone for the first time since Week 1, Gordon finished with at least 120 total yards for the fifth straight game.
Gordon’s struggles on the ground were a bit surprising, especially with how poorly the Broncos have defended against the run. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself Sunday against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (141.5) to go along with 13 touchdowns on the ground. Gordon is certainly expensive, but don’t hesitate to pay up for him in cash contests based on his floor.
James Conner vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,800
Conner struggled to get things going on the ground early against the Jaguars on Sunday and then the Steelers were forced to throw a lot late down 16-0. They stormed back for the win, but Conner only had nine carries for 25 yards. He also hauled in six of nine targets, but only for 24 yards. This game also marked the first time since Week 4 that Conner failed to record a touchdown.
The Jaguars haven’t been as tough on opposing running backs as they have quarterbacks, but they still have a good defense, overall. Conner has an excellent opportunity to get things back on track against the Broncos, who are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (127.9). The Steelers might also be able to jump out to a big lead against this far inferior opponent, which could lead to a game flow that favors Conner in the second half.
David Johnson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,300
It took a change at offensive coordinator, but Johnson is back to being an extremely productive running back again. He only caught one of three targets for 17 yards in Week 11 against the Raiders, but he also set season highs in rushing attempts (25) and rushing yards (137). After receiving at least 20 carries just one time across the first eight weeks, he’s topped that mark in both of his last two contests.
The Cardinals still aren’t scoring a ton of points, which does limit Johnson’s upside, to an extent. It’s clear, though, that they plan for him to be heavily involved moving forward. The Chargers have only given up six rushing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed 4.6 yards-per-carry. Gordon and Conner have the potential for better overall lines since they play for better offenses that put them in more positions to score touchdowns, but Johnson’s role still makes him a safe option in DFS.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Nick Chubb vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,300
Early indications are that the Browns made the right choice trading Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars to open up more playing time for Chubb. Since that trade, Chubb has received at least 18 carries and recorded at least 65 rushing yards in four straight games. He exploded for 176 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 10 against the Falcons and already has four total touchdowns since taking on an expanded role.
Chubb comes into this game out of a bye week, so he should be fresh for what is an excellent matchup against the Bengals. The Bengals have arguably the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 153.6 yards per contest and 13 scores on the ground. Chubb’s price is climbing, but he still presents an excellent opportunity for production in this contest. If you play season-long fantasy, as well, note that this is one of two remaining games against the Bengals for Chubb.
Marlon Mack vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,500
Mack rebounded from a quiet performance in Week 10 against the Jaguars to rush for 61 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries versus the Titans in Week 11. The Colts struggled to run the ball with Mack out earlier this season, but he’s come on to solidify their rushing attack by averaging 78.5 yards per game. Not only is he chewing up yards on the ground, but he also has five total touchdowns across his last four games.
Mack hasn’t received a ton of carries the last two weeks, but he was on the field for at least 60 percent of the Colts offensive snaps in both contests. He’s clearly their lead back, which sets him up nicely for Sunday in a matchup against a Dolphins team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (142). They’ve also struggled to put points on the board, so Mack might get a few extra carries in the second half if the Colts can jump out to an early lead.
Matt Breida vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,700
Breida was excellent against the Giants in Week 10, rushing 17 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. He also hauled in three of four targets for 31 yards and an additional score. It was just his second game of the season with at least 100 rushing yards and his four targets tied his previous season-high that he set back in Week 2. With Raheem Mostert (forearm) out for the rest of the season, Breida was also on the field for 60 percent of the 49ers offensive snaps, which was his second-highest percentage so far.
If anyone could have used a bye week, it’s Breida. He’s dealt with various injuries all season, but he should be well rested for what is a stellar matchup to target. The Bucs defense has been bad in just about every facet of the game, including being tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed (14). They’ve also allowed 511 yards and four touchdowns through the air to opposing running backs. At this cheap price, it’s hard to pass up on Breida in tournament play.
Gus Edwards vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $4,400
The Ravens were forced to make a quarterback change last week with Joe Flacco (hip) unable to take the field. Lamar Jackson received his first career start against the Bengals, and while he didn’t do much through the air, he had 27 carries for 117 yards. The Ravens also changed things up a running back, giving Edwards carries as the game went on due to the struggles of Alex Collins. After rushing the ball just 15 times all season, Edwards exploded for 115 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
The threat of Jackson running the ball certainly makes things tough on opposing defenses. He and Edwards seemed to play off of each other well, so if Jackson does start again Sunday, Edwards could once again receive more carries Collins. There is certainly plenty of risk here since Edwards is largely an unproven commodity, but he’s priced so cheap on both sites that he won’t need to match his total from last week in order to still provide value.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Alex Collins vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,500
Collins was able to score an early touchdown against the Bengals but struggled again with only 18 yards on seven carries. That marked the fourth time in the last five games that he had 3.9 yards-per-carry or fewer, which was one of the reasons while the Ravens gave Edwards a chance to prove himself. With the uncertainty surrounding who will be their lead back moving forward, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to take a chance on Collins this week, especially at his price on FanDuel.
LeSean McCoy vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,200
It’s been a rough season for the Bills, but at least they were able to enjoy their bye week after drubbing the Jets 41-10. McCoy had his best performance of the year in that contest, turning 26 carries into 113 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t get too excited, though, because he had a total of 24 rushing yards across his previous three games. Even though he clearly still has something left in the tank, the Bills terrible overall offense leaves him with very little upside.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 11 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The Chiefs and Rams will be facing off on Monday Night Football, taking away two of the top running back options for the main Sunday slate of DFS in Week 11. There are also six teams on a bye, which hurts the overall depth at the position. Let’s dive into to schedule to see which options are still on the board. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Saquon Barkley vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,700
The Giants won their second game of the season against the 49ers in Week 10 with Barkley reaching 100 total yards. His 20 carries were a season-high, but his five targets were the first time he had received fewer than 10 targets since Week 5. The Giants offensive line has been one of the worst units in the league, which has limited Barkley to 3.4 yards-per-carry or fewer in four of his last five games.
Barkley’s touchdown upside will remain somewhat limited due to the Giants terrible offense, but this could be a week for him to shine against the Bucs since they are tied for the third-most rushing touchdown allowed (12) in the league. They’ve also allowed 473 yards and three touchdowns through the air to opposing running backs. With Barkley’s heavy workload, he makes for an excellent option in cash contests.
Melvin Gordon III vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings =$8,900
Gordon has yet to receive 20 carries in a game this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent fantasy contributors. He was excellent against the Raiders on Sunday, turning 18 carries into 93 yards. After recording 3.9 yards-per-carry last year, Gordon has posted 5.4 yards-per-carry this season. Not only did Gordon excel on the ground in Week 10, but he also turned five receptions in 72 yards and a touchdown.
With his most recent touchdown, Gordon has now found his way into the end zone at least one time in every game since Week 1. He’s also just 31 targets away from matching his mark from all of 2017. This is a matchup to exploit against the Broncos, who have allowed 4.8 yards-per-carry. Gordon won’t come cheap, but his workload and efficiency make him hard to pass up.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $8,000
The Panthers were beaten soundly by the Steelers last week, but McCaffrey still had a productive game with 138 total yards. He also accounted for all three of their scores, compiling one rushing touchdown and two through the air. He only found his way into the end zone once across his first five games but has seven total touchdowns over three games since.
McCaffrey has one of the highest floors among running backs based on his ability to contribute in both the running and passing attacks. He’s been on the field for 96 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps this season, which is tops among their skill players. That type of usage could set him up with a tremendous opportunity to thrive against the Lions, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (132.7).
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
David Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,500
It took until Week 10, but Johnson finally had his first hefty stat line of the season against the Chiefs. Not only did he 98 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, but he also caught seven of nine targets for 85 yards and another score. The rushing yards are obviously important, but it was just as encouraging to see Johnson so involved in the passing game. After receiving 120 targets in 2016, Johnson only had 32 targets across his first eight games.
The change at offensive coordinator might salvage Johnson’s season. After the Cardinals had a bye week to install Byron Leftwich’s new scheme, Johnson looked like the fantasy star that we all know and love. This is another juicy matchup for him against the Raiders, who allow the third-most rushing yards per game (141). His price is already starting to climb, but it’s still low enough for him to have plenty of upside.
Doug Martin vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,500
To say this season has been a disappointment for the Raiders would be a huge understatement. After losing 20-6 to the Chargers last week, their record now stands at 1-8. Their defense hasn’t been good, but it’s hard to win many games when you score 1o points or fewer in four of your last five contests. With Marshawn Lynch (groin) on IR, Martin has received the bulk of their carries. It’s no surprise that he hasn’t scored a touchdown, but he has rushed for at least 61 yards in two of their last three games.
Martin is likely to continue to receive the majority of the carries for the Raiders, but he’s not going to be as involved in the passing attack as Jalen Richard. With the Raiders often down big in games, that doesn’t always work in Martin’s favor. However, even with the Cardinals improved play last week, they still have a ways to go before they can be considered as a dangerous offensive team. The game flow might work in Martin’s favor, which could lead him to a big day since the Cardinals allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (140.3). They’ve also allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, so this is as good of an opportunity as any for Martin to finally reach the end zone.
Alex Collins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,400
Collins emerged as the Ravens top running back last year, but his workload has been limited this season. He’s finished with 12 carries or fewer in seven of nine games and hasn’t been much of a factor catching passes out of the backfield, either. That’s not likely to change now with Ty Montgomery coming over from the Packers. Add his 3.7 yards-per-carry to his limited attempts and you get a running back who doesn’t seem all that appealing on the surface.
There are plenty of factors working against Collins in terms of his snap count, but he may still be someone to take a chance on in tournament play. He has managed to record six rushing touchdowns, four of which have come across his last four games. The Bengals have also been atrocious against the run, allowing the second-most yards per game (141.2) and 11 rushing touchdowns. He’s strictly a tournament play option, but this matchup leaves him with some intrigue.
Dion Lewis vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,800
The Titans pulled off possibly the biggest shocker of Week 10 with a commanding 34-10 win over the Patriots. It was sweet revenge for Lewis against his former team, but he didn’t exactly shine with 57 yards on 20 carries. The silver lining is the 20 carries, which marked his second straight week with at least 19 rushing attempts. His previous season-high was 16 carries back in Week 1.
Derrick Henry is the Titans preferred option when they get in close, which is the main reason why Lewis only has two total touchdowns. The good news is that he’s significantly out snapped Henry, playing at least 73 percent of their offensive snaps in three of the last four games. Lewis is also the far superior option in the passing game, which is one of the main reasons why he could be someone to play in Week 11. The Colts haven’t played all that poorly against the run, but they’be allowed 71 receptions and 571 receiving yards to running backs.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Lamar Miller vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,600
Miller has had his moments, but he’s largely struggled to provide consistent production. After posting back-to-back games with at least 100 rushing yards, Miller laid an egg in a favorable matchup against the Broncos in Week 9 by turning 12 carries into just 21 yards. That marked his fourth game of the season that he finished with 3.5 yard-per-carry or fewer. The Redskins have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.9), potentially setting up Miller for another subpar performance.
Adrian Peterson vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,500
All things considered, Peterson didn’t play that poorly behind a makeshift offensive line in Week 10, rushing 19 times for 68 yards against the Bucs. The problem is, that might be close to best case scenario for him moving forward based on all of the injuries to the line. The Texans have allowed a league-low 3.6 yards-per-carry and just three rushing touchdowns, so there isn’t much of a case to be made for playing Peterson on Sunday.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Only a few of the top running backs won’t be available for the main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 10, leaving plenty of great options to choose from across the price scale. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $10,800
DraftKings = $9,400
The Rams were caught in a shootout with the Saints in Week 9, which finally led to a subpar game from Gurley. He averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry, but he only finished with 68 yards on 13 attempts. The Saints held him in check in the passing game, as well, with Gurley finishing with six catches on seven targets for 11 yards. Even though Gurley managed to record a rushing touchdown, he had just one touchdown for the second straight week.
If you paid up to get Gurley in your entry last week, you were left disappointed, but don’t let that cloud your judgment moving forward. This is a much better matchup against a far inferior Seahawks offense, which should lead to more rushing attempts for Gurley. The Seahawks are also allowing an average of 4.8 yards-per-carry, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. When these two teams met earlier this season, Gurley finished with 113 total yards and three touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $8,500
The Chiefs had another great offensive performance against the Browns in Week 9 and Hunt was right in the thick of the action. He had 17 carries for 90 yards, and although he only received two targets, he caught one of them for a 50-yard touchdown. Add in his two rushing touchdowns and it was his third multi-touchdown game of the season. A feat even more impressive than that is that he has at least one touchdown in eight straight contests.
With the ease at which the Chiefs move the ball, Hunt is going to get plenty of opportunities for touchdowns. This is another stellar matchup for him against the Cardinals, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (143.1). Their 12 rushing touchdowns allowed is also tied for the second-most, so don’t hesitate to pay up for Hunt.
Melvin Gordon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,000
A bye week came at just the right time for the Chargers. Gordon missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury, but a bye in Week 8 helped him to miss only that one game. He certainly didn’t look hampered at all against the Seahawks on Sunday, turning 16 carries into 113 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in his last four games that Gordon finished with at least 6.9 yards-per-carry.
Week 10 brings a matchup against the Raiders, who looked like a trainwreck against the 49ers last week. In their first meeting this season, Gordon had 120 total yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. With the Raiders allowing the most rushing yards per game (144.5), expect Gordon to have another strong performance in their rematch.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tevin Coleman vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,400
Coleman’s performance against the Redskins in Week 9 was impressive. They’ve had one of the better run defenses in the league this year, but Coleman still finished with 88 rushing yards on just 13 carries. He did plenty of damage in the passing game, as well, hauling in five of seven targets for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Those are the only two receiving touchdowns the Redskins have allowed to running backs all season.
Coleman is still sharing the backfield duties with Ito Smith, but Coleman has been on the field for exactly 57 percent of the Falcons offensive plays in each of their last three games. Smith wasn’t on the field more than 46 percent of the time in any of those contests. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (138.9) and the most rushing touchdowns (14), leaving Coleman with excellent upside.
David Johnson vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $6,800
If you play in season-long fantasy football, Johnson is right up there with some of the biggest disappointments in the league. The Cardinals finally moved on from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy before Week 8, which really can only help Johnson at this point. His first game with Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator wasn’t exactly off the charts, but he finished with 100 total yards against the 49ers, marking just the second time this season he has recorded at least 100 total yards in a game.
The Cardinals had a bye last week, which should be helpful as they adopt Leftwich’s new offense. He’s already stated his desire to get Johnson more involved, at least bringing him back onto the radar in DFS. This is certainly a favorable matchup for Johnson to exploit with the Chiefs allowing a league-high 5.2 yards-per-carry. There is risk involved here, but Johnson could be someone to consider for your entry.
Duke Johnson Jr. vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,700
One of the more perplexing things we’ve seen this season is the Browns usage of Johnson. After finishing with 74 catches on 93 targets last year, Johnson only had 20 receptions on 29 targets through their first eight games. The Browns decided to clean house by firing their head coach and offensive coordinator last week, which immediately provided positive results for Johnson. With the Browns trying to keep up with the Chiefs, Johnson caught all nine of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
It was about time the Browns got Johnson more involved. They aren’t exactly deep at wide receiver, so it would seem to remain in their best interest to keep throwing passes Johnson’s way. If he can get similar usage in Week 10, he could once again have a big stat line considering the Falcons have allowed a league-high 68 receptions to opposing running backs. At this cheap price. Johnson could be well worth the risk in tournament play.
Jalen Richard vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,800
Few losses this season have been as embarrassing as the one the Raiders suffered at the hands of the 49ers in Week 9. With Nick Mullens making his first career start, they managed to blow out the Raiders, 34-3. Richard only had two carries in that contest, but running the ball is not his forte. He did catch all four of his targets for 45 yards, marking his fourth-straight game with at least four targets.
After the Raiders dealt Amari Cooper to the Cowboys and lost Marshawn Lynch to injury, their offense doesn’t have a ton of talented playmakers left. Their defense has played poorly as well, which should leave with some early deficits to try and make up. In those situations, Richard should be heavily involved in catching passes out of the backfield. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers race out to an early lead, setting things up nicely for Richard to provide value.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Leonard Fournette vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $6,300
Fournette injured his hamstring in the first game of the season against the Giants, which forced him to miss the subsequent two games. He tried to return in Week 4, but couldn’t make it through that contest and hasn’t played since. After having a bye in Week 9, everything is pointing towards Fournette taking the field against the Colts. Although he can be a major asset when healthy, it might be best to make sure he can make it through an entire game before you start playing him in DFS again.
Adrian Peterson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700
Peterson’s success with the Redskins has been surprising. After looking ineffective with the Saints and Cardinals last year, Peterson has already rushed for at least 96 yards in a game five times this season. However, his prognosis going forward looks extremely bleak with the Redskins offensive line decimated by injuries. Not only have they lost guards Brandon Schreff (pectoral) and Shawn Lauvao (knee) for the season, but tackle Trent Williams (thumb) is also a couple of weeks away from returning. With a bunch of backups blocking for him, Peterson isn’t very appealing at this price.
Daily Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Week 1 Cash and GPP Picks
Quarterbacks:
Quarterback is the most underpriced position in both Draftkings and Fanduel. The main reason why the quarterback position is wildly underpriced is that there isn’t a large gap between the top scoring QB opposed to the 12th scoring QB. It also has to due in large part with the fact that their scoring is weighted lower than other positions. QB’s receive 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards gained. If you play on Draftkings they give a bonus for quarterbacks that throw over 300 yards. That may alter your decision making because it makes quarterbacks more reliant on touchdowns in FanDuel than in Draftkings. Now that we broke down the scoring discrepancies, let’s take a look at a few quarterbacks you should be targeting for both cash and gpp games.
Cash:
Marcus Mariota (DK $6,700, FD $7,700)
Mariota comes into week 1 as the consensus chalk quarterback. The 6th highest priced QB on DK and 7th highest priced QB on FD, Mariota won’t be heavily owned because of his bargain price. Instead, Mariota will likely be the highest owned QB in cash games because of his favorable Vegas totals. The Titans come into week one as a 3.5 point favorite against the Raiders in a game that features the highest over/under 50.5. This high over/under gives the Titans an implied total of 26.5 points, good enough for second on this slate only behind the Steelers. Quarterbacks with similar Vegas totals have gone on to perform well in the past. Mariota has had the best red zone touchdown efficiency rating since joining the league in 2015. When you add up all that and include that the Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, you can see why Mariota is expected to be the highest owned quarterback.
GPP:
Russell Wilson (DK $ 6,900, FD $8,000)
After a let down 2016 season, Wilson finds himself looking to hit the refresh button. His fantasy production last season took a dip because he only rushed for 259 yards on the season with one rushing touchdown. It’s been heavily reported that Wilson changed his workout routine over the offseason and is looking to recapture his 2015 form this season. Well, week 1 is a nice opportunity for Wilson to put his new offseason regime to the test against the Packers. The Packers allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game last season and did hardly anything to improve their secondary in the offseason. This game opened up with an over/under just under 50 but has since increased to 51, giving this game the highest over/under on the slate. The Seahawks are on road underdogs, and that generally isn’t a recipe for success, but the Packers secondary is bad enough for you to consider taking a flier on Wilson in tournaments.
Plays worth considering in Cash & GPP:
Matt Ryan (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – The Falcons are tied for 1st on the slate for implied team points with 27.5. Matt Ryan is going up against a Bears defense that is significantly improved in the front seven and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could look to air it out in their first game to get Falcon’s fans over their 28-3 blown Super Bowl win. However, Ryan does come with some red flags as he is playing on the road and there truly is no way of telling how the offense will function without Kyle Shanahan.
Ben Roethlisberger ($DK 7,300, FD $8,200) – Big Ben comes in with the same implied team total as the Falcons. He’s playing an abysmal Browns team and is an 8.5 point favorite. Ben will have his full assortment of weapons to his use with the return of LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The concern here is Ben’s home and road splits.
Running Backs
The running back position is almost always dominated by Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,800, FD $9,300) and David Johnson (DK $9,400, FD $9,400). This week is no different. Both are elite plays and expect to be the highest owned backs in this slate. Now the question is if you can play both of them. The answer is yes. There’s certainly enough value in other positions that allow you to make your lineup construction with these two elite backs. But if you have to choose one over the other I like Johnson over Bell because of the simple fact that the game has a closer spread and David Johnson plays for a Cardinal team that has fewer mouths to feed than the Steelers.
Chalk
Todd Gurley (DK $6,000, FD $7,300)
If you’re looking for a chalk alternative from the two safe, elite backs look no further than Todd Gurley. More of a value on Draftkings than Fanduel, Gurley comes into week 1 in an elite spot. The Rams are currently home favorite against the Andrew Luck-less Colts and have seen the Vegas line shift them from 3 point underdogs to 4 point favorites. With a poor offensive line and Jeff Fisher calling the plays last season, Gurley had a letdown year after being selected as the number 1 RB in most season-long drafts last season. This year the Rams have made some moves to improve their offensive line and also brought in Sean McVay to jumpstart their offense. Gurley should have an ample amount of opportunities to get to the 100 yard DK bonus and could even fall into the endzone.
GPP
Carlos Hyde (DK $4,600, FD $6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheap running back in your roster construction, Carlos Hyde is your answer. With Joe William landing on the IR and Tim Hightower being a surprise cut out of the 49ers camp, Hyde only has to share targets with undrafted rookie Matt Breida. Hyde should be a lock for 25 touches with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays now and his price on both sites could help open up salary in other roster spots.
Wide Receivers
Depending on lineup construction, wide receiver could be where you really differentiate yourself from the field. The top 3 studs are all in strong positions. Antonio Brown (DK $ 8,800, FD $9,100), Julio Jones (DK $8,500, FD $9,000), and AJ Green (DK $8,000, FD $ 8,400) are all in spots where we can see them have a big game. But let’s take an audible into some plays that people may be overlooking
Doug Baldwin (DK $6,700, FD $7,500)
I mentioned how the Seahawks passing offense was in a good spot against the Packers. The game flow looks to be in Baldwin’s favor as the Packers had the worst secondary in the league last season, and quite frankly their cornerbacks don’t scare any passing attack. Baldwin will face either Quinten Rollins, Davon House, or Damarious Randall neither was graded higher than top 50 of Pro Football Focus Cornerback Rankings.
Kendall Wright (DK $3,200, FD $5,200)
Kendall Wright looks poised to take advantage of a Bears receiving corp that is extremely depleted after losing Cameron Meredith for the season. Although Wright is not listed as the number two receiver behind Kevin White, Wright will be on the field in three wide receiver sets. That may sound concerning, but during preseason the first-team Bears offense ran three wide receiver sets 14 out of their 15 plays, so Wright is a sneaky cheap option to get some much volume. Wright was signed by the Bears after his previous work with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Under Loggains, Wright saw and an average of 8.7 targets per game back in 2013. In a game that the Bears are heavy underdogs against the Falcons, the offense could be throwing the ball more than 40 times opening up cheap targets for Wright to snag.
Amari Cooper (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Amari Cooper should be another popular play. Playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Cooper is going to have an ample of opportunities to bring in targets. The Titans last season ranked in the bottom of the league in points per game allowed to wide receiver, and with a duel of Cooper and Crabtree, the Raiders passing game could be in store for a big game.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK $5,900, FD $6,400)
Fitz is a veteran that could be heavily owned in this first few weeks. The one thing about the vet is that he has some drastic splits from the first half of the season and the second. Fitzgerald has averaged 13.9 points in the first 6 games of the season compared to 11.3 games in the second half. The Cardinals passing offense faces the Lions who were 32nd in DVOA.
** Fanduel only ** Terrelle Pryor (FD $6,200) is extremely underpriced in Fanduel. Although his preseason action with Kirk Cousins left a lot to be desired, Pryor should see a massive target amount.
Tight End
Drafting a tight end in DFS is often dependent on the site you play. In Draftkings touchdowns become less important than targets, while on Fanduel touchdowns valued higher than targets/receptions.
Chalk
Draftkings – Zach Ertz (DK $4,300, FD $6,100)
Ertz is the uber chalk on Draftkings. With the Eagles getting rid of Jordan Matthews and Alshon Jeffery expecting to be shadowed by Josh Norman, Ertz becomes the immediate beneficiary of targets from Carson Wentz. Ertz doesn’t have the touchdown upside that others like Jared Cook or Tyler Eifert may have, but his price and volume make him a nice cash play on Draftkings.
Fanduel – Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600, FD $6,100)
Eifert is an example of how site determines what would be the better player. With Green sucking up most of the targets, Eifert is left with minimal targets. Fortunately for Eifert, he scored on over 40% of his targets last season. Although that number is likely to regress, Eifert is at a good price for such a volatile position.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams (DK $3,200, FD $4,600)
The Rams’ defense is in a good spot as a 4 point home favorite against a team that doesn’t have their starting quarterback. The Colts could very much be a train wreck come Sunday, and although the Rams will likely be without their All-Pro Aaron Donald, their defense should be able to handle Scott Tolzien and Frank Gore.
Houston Texans (DK $3,800, FD 5,100)
The Texans are the chalkiest defense with the highest upside. Aside from the fact that they are with the most talented defense in a prime matchup, they get to face Blake Bortles. Bortles looked dreadful this preseason and last year ranked in the bottom-10 in interception rate (3.7%). They are the most expensive defensive option out of the other chalk defense.
Fantasy Football 101: Draft Picks Strategies and Running Back Concerns
Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.
Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.
Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.
LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.
Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.
Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.
Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.
Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.
Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.
DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.
Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.
Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.
Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.
These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.
Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.
Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.
If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.
Recap:
The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.
Live Draft
The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.
Team 1
1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)
2.12 – Dez Bryant
3.01 – Demaryius Thomas
4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald
5.01 -Jordan Reed
What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.
Team 2
1.02 – David Johnson
2.11 – Doug Baldwin
3.02 – Rob Gronkowski
4.11 – Danny Woodhead
5.02 – Jarvis Landry
Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.
Team 3
1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)
2.10 – Leonard Fournette
3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins
4.10 – Frank Gore
5.03 – Delanie Walker
This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.
Team 4
1.04 – Mike Evans (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)
3.04 – Terrelle Pryor
4.09 – Bilal Powell
5.04 – Mark Ingram
This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.
Team 5
1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)
2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)
3.05 – Marshawn Lynch
4.08 – Golden Tate
5.05 – Devante Adams
Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.
Team 6
1.06 – Julio Jones
2.07 – Michael Thomas
3.06 – Isaiah Crowell
4.07 – Alshon Jeffery
5.06 – Greg Olsen
Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.
Team 7 – My team
1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.
2.06 – Todd Gurley
3.07 – Christian McCaffrey
4.06 – Aaron Rodgers
5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders
First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.
Team 8
1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)
2.05 – Amari Cooper
3.08 – Dalvin Cook
4.05 – Martavis Bryant
5.08 – Julian Edelman
I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.
Team 9
1.09 – A.J. Green
2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)
3.09 – Carlos Hyde
4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)
5.09 – Allen Robinson
This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.
Team 10
1.10 – Melvin Gordon
2.03 – T. Y. Hilton
3.10 – Michael Crabtree
4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)
5.10 – Kareem Hunt
My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.
Team 11
1.11 – Jordy Nelson
2.02 – DeMarco Murray
3.11 – Tom Brady
4.02 – Travis Kelce
5.11 – Jamison Crowder
This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.
Team 12
1.12 – Jordan Howard
2.01 – Jay Ajayi
3.12 – Ty Montgomery
4.01 – Keenan Allen
5.12 – Tyreek Hill
The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 – Season Long
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101
It’s that time of the year again. That time when you dust off your football jerseys and start getting text messages from your buddies talking about when your league draft day will be. Fantasy Football has become society’s latest epidemic and has become the ultimate way for friends, family, or even strangers to bond. And by bond, I mean to trash talk. Trash talk for four months. That’s if you are winning.
The key to winning is almost entirely linked to a good draft. Drafting can be complicated. There’s nothing worse than when you have your next pick in your queue list and the person before you snags him up before it’s your turn. Good times, good times.
But that’s why I’m writing this draft strategy outline let’s call it. That picture I painted above is going to happen, but it’s the teams that are able to think on their toes that end up making the playoffs and evidently winning a championship. So enough rambling. Let’s get to it.
Creating Rounds/Position Tiers
Splitting the Draft in 3’s
When I approach a draft, I found that dividing the draft rounds into sections is a helpful way to determine what my goal is in that round. I separate rounds into three sections. The Early Section, Meat Section, and the Late Section. Here’s a breakdown of the thought process during each of these sections.
“Early Section” or Rounds 1-5
Naturally, you’d expect the early section to be the most important aspect of your team. And it is to some extent, it is, after all these are supposed to be the best players on your team. But when I pick in the early section I’m not looking for “safe players.” Safe doesn’t win you championships and doesn’t always provide the best value. I look for players who have a high ceiling (meaning they can have a breakout game any given week), but players who also have a high floor (a good amount of base points to account for those weeks they don’t happen to have a breakout week).
Everyone always wants their first round pick to score 3 touchdowns and when they do you’ll likely win the week. But it’s when they don’t is when it that hurts your team’s overall performance. Finding a player with a good balance of high floor and ceiling helps in these early rounds helps you eliminate this problem.
“Meat Section” or Rounds 6-10
The middle aka meat section is where things unravel, but at least in my opinion, this is where leagues are won. Players you thought would be available during this section are no longer available, and players you thought would be gone in this section are magically still on the board. What I look for here is still a high ceiling, but the difference from the early section is that I’m willing to sacrifice the floor of the players.
In this section, we find players like DeSean Jackson or Adrian Peterson who are players that may not give us the greatest consistency but do provide big games upside in certain situations. Now it’s important to note; I’m not giving up on a good floor (base) all entirely. I’m still looking for players who are part of the offensive gameplan and provide real upside to have double-digit games.
“Late Section” or Rounds – 11-16
This is my ‘boom or bust” section. At this point, you already have your starting lineup already drafted and are starting to fill in the bench players. In this section, I sacrifice the necessity of a good floor, meaning I’m solely looking for players with high upside because they could provide a big boost to a team that already has a good balance between floor and ceiling. While there are instances where you’d want to draft a corresponding player that may be injured or suspended to begin the season, this is a good section to pick those players.
One thing I see a lot of fantasy players do wrong is draft players that they think would be best replacements for bye weeks or if one of their starting players gets injured. Those outcomes to me are situations you deal with on a weekly basis, and that’s what the waiver wire is for. But not on draft day. Draft day is about securing a team with the highest possible ceiling while maintaining a solid base for expected points.
*Writer’s Note* Don’t be the team that drafts the Broncos or Stephen Gostkowski before your final two rounds. These positions are interchangeable with the waiver wire, and often the points difference isn’t significant enough to justify passing on a player with good potential.
So now you’ve split the draft and have an idea for what players you are expecting. Now let’s put it all together and build a ranking system.
Creating a Ranking System
There are several ways you can go about drafting a fantasy football team. One, you can prepare your butt off so that you know team depth charts like the back of your hand. Two follow whatever site rankings that are defaulted when you sit in front of your computer. Or Three you could not prepare at all and just let auto pick choose the top guy available.
If you’re not one of those guys who could set his team on auto pick and still make the playoff, I’d recommend approaching your fantasy football draft is a mixture of 1 and 2. Not everyone has the time to read every team preview and memorize each team’s depth chart, so we need to find a way to be more efficient with our time. Here’s how I start.
The biggest thing that will help you build a solid core to your team is creating your own rankings. Whatever site you use whether it’s ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sports, or even NFL, DON”T rely on whatever is automated in your draft room. Most casual fantasy players draft based on the default rankings in the draft room, by following them you limit yourself to finding players with greater value.
If you’re not comfortable creating your own rankings from scratch, take some time to look at other analyst rankings. Find two or three that you agree with and average the player’s rankings out. By doing that you’ll not only have expert type guidance, but you’ll be customizing it so that you have the final say on creating YOUR team based on YOUR rankings.
You’ll see a lot of Top 50 or Top 100 rankings. Here’s where the customization of your league comes to play. If you’re playing in a 10 team league, you don’t need to rank more than the top 50 players. If you’re playing in a 12 team league, that’s when you’d want to stretch the rankings to a top 60. The reason for this is you want to have coverage on players you like for at least the first 5 rounds.
Once you have your own “consensus” rankings, you’re ready to draft. Now here’s the key. No matter where you are slotted to be drafting, the key here is staying committed to your rankings.
By staying committed to your rankings, you’re finding players that you value more than others and have more control of your team.
Let’s say your heart was set on drafting a running back in the first round, but you have the fifth pick, and both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are gone. That doesn’t mean you should force your way to draft LeSean McCoy when receivers like Mike Evans or A.J. Green, who offer better value are likely still available. At least according to my board.
A big reason to keep following your rankings is so that you don’t reach for players in a draft position that they are not worth (according to your rankings). If the player you think you want to select is not the first player on your rankings list, chances are you’re reaching for that player and passing up on a player with better value.
Follow your rankings list to the core for at least the first 3 rounds. After the first three rounds, you evaluate your team. You could be looking at a situation where you drafted three straight wide receivers. That’s not necessarily a bad thing this year when you consider that running backs ranked from 5-14 all have question marks, but at some point you need to draft running backs.
If you find yourself in this situation, use your rankings to find the best available non-wide receiver position player available. You want to make sure you have a decent balance but aren’t forcing picks that make you end up losing value.
A good way I found that’s helpful in keeping my roster balance in the first 5 rounds is creating round tiers. What that means is your labeling the players on your rankings into positional order.
Draft Tiers
Create tiers based on your league size and by round. Say you play in a 12 team league you’d want to have 12 players in your first tier, second, and so on and so forth. This helps you visualize what round you would expect your top 60 players to go. So for a 60-player rankings you will have 5 tiers.
Once you have the over players tiers, then you separate the tiers by positions. If you noticed 6 running backs were in the first 12 players (tier 1) then you would classify those 6 running backs as RB Tier 1. You may notice that you don’t have any tight ends or quarterbacks expected to go in the first round and this is when you place value into the tiers.
Say I have 6 running backs and 6 receivers going in the first round. That would mean my first tier of wide receivers and running backs would be valued in the 1st round. You continue to do these positional tiers until you have 12 players from the same position in that tier. Then you check what’s that last player’s projected round and place value on the tier.
WR Tier 1
- A. Brown
- J. Jones
- O. Beckham Jr.
- M. Evans
- A. Green
- J. Nelson
- M. Thomas
- D. Bryant
- T. Hilton
- B. Cooks
- A. Cooper
- D. Baldwin
Starting with my top receiver to my 12th this tier should last me up until round 3, meaning this tier would be “WR Tier 1-3.” What this is saying is that I would be willing to draft anyone of these receivers within as long as it’s round 3. If anyone of these players should be available in round 4 I’ve found tremendous value.
Now you can choose to create tiers the way I do, or you can choose to create tiers based on players you would draft in that round. For example, if I’d break that tier down into rounds it would sort out like this.
WR Tier 1 Round
- A. Brown
- J. Jones
- O. Beckham Jr.
- M. Evans
- A. Green
WR Tier 2 Round
- J. Nelson
- M. Thomas
- D. Bryant
- T. Hilton
WR Tier 3 Round
- B. Cooks
- A. Cooper
- D. Baldwin
The problem I have with this is that I’m leaving out other players that I would consider drafting at the end of the 3rd round. There are receivers I would consider drafting in the 3rd round, but they didn’t make the top 12 of the position. That’s why I choose to sort it out based on teams and put the round value based on where that tier starts and ends.
Bring it All Home
I know that was a lot of information to take in so I thought I’d leave you with some nuggets at the end.
- Divide your draft into separate parts to place value on the rounds/players you pick.
- Create your own Top 50/60 ranking to cover your first 5 rounds.
- Divide your Top 50/60 rankings into positional Tiers to help you view the value of the round you are picking them in.
- Do not lock into any specific position in the first round. Follow your rankings and after 3 rounds evaluate how balanced (position wise) your team is.
Extra Point
Just because the top guy in your positional tier gets drafted doesn’t mean you need to rush into drafting the next guy on the board (i.e., Gronkowski gets picked there’s no need for you to rush to draft a tight end).
For my next article, I’ll cover a specific strategy for when to draft Quarterbacks and Tight Ends. I’ll give you my opinion on where to draft Ezekiel Elliott and other promising rookie running backs. As well as dive into pick strategies for first three rounds.