How to Use Vegas for DFS (NBA)

Vegas data should be a staple for every (smart) Daily Fantasy Sports player. A good start to the day: Coffee, toast, and a quick look at Vegas lines. We don’t want to get too hung up on what Vegas thinks, as they are not wizards nor do they have a crystal ball like many believe, but they are pretty smart and we can use that to our advantage. Over time we will be filling out this page with more data points, but for now we are just going to start with Game Totals (over/under) and Game Spreads.

High Vegas Totals (O/U)

The game total is a number set by bookmakers in Vegas in an attempt to predict the total combined points scored by both teams. So if the DAL/WAS game has a total of 204, this means that Vegas believes the total combined points for the game will be 204. This could unfold by Dallas scoring 105 and Washington scoring 99. Or DAL 108 / WAS 96, or some other combination of points. Traditional sports bettors would usually place an over/under wager on this number. For our purposes in Daily Fantasy, we are looking for a big number. Typically, a player from a game with a high vegas total means that it will be a high scoring game and hence, more Fantasy Points. Simple enough.

But a high Game Total only tells part of the story. We also want to look at Team Totals too. If vegas thinks the score will be DAL 124 to WAS 80, well then we may not be so interested in the WAS players anymore. Maybe the bookmaker sees a great matchup for DAL. Maybe WAS is suffering from lack of rest on the road, terrible defense, mounting injuries, bad talent, or all of the above. DAL may still be interesting, but before we take players from the heavily favored Dallas team we need to consider their coaching & play style more. (See more on this in Vegas Spreads below)

Thin Vegas Spreads

The spread is a number set by bookmakers in an attempt to predict the margin of victory by one team over the other team. If the DAL/WAS game has a Game Total of 208 and the spread is 8, assuming Dallas is favored, then the bookie believes that DAL will win the game by 8 points. The final score is predicted to be 108 to 100. So why do we care about the spread? Taking players from a game with a big spread can spell disaster, even if we are taking players from the heavily favored team. Think about it. If the game is a complete blow-out, and your DAL players are crushing it, you are pretty happy! But lets say they are up by 25 points by the end of the 3rd quarter… and suddenly one of your stars gets benched for the entire 4th. Uh oh.

Lets consider the alternative. The DAL/WAS game has a spread of 1. So the book believes this will be a close & hard-fought game up until the end. If this holds true, then both teams are going to keep their starters on the floor until the very last second of the game, maximizing our potential Fantasy Points.

Finally, and although nearly impossible to predict, a thin spread gives us a tiny tiny indicator of those games which may go into overtime. Overtime is a great thing in Daily Fantasy. An extra few minutes on the floor can mean all the difference in the performance of your lineups. Again, overtime is an insanely difficult thing to predict, but which game has a higher likelihood of OT? The game with a spread of 15? Or 1?

Conclusion

Vegas data is just a measuring stick, not a bible. They have their algorithms and we have ours. We are looking for as many clues as we can find... and the predictions made by bookmakers is a great place to start. Incorporate it into your daily routine.

Player Lab

You can quickly find players with high Vegas totals and thin spreads in our Player Lab tool. Check it out and don't forget to register with us to hear about new Player Lab filters when they are released.