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NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 11/09/16

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.


What We Learned

Overall it was a very successful week with the Player Lab Tool. If you stacked the Thursday slate you most likely had success as Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston combined for over 600 yards passing and seven touchdowns. Both teams elite wideout paid off as well as the Falcons Julio Jones caught eight of his 11 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown and the Bucs Mike Evans caught 11 of his game high 17 targets for 150 yards and two touchdowns.

In last week’s early week article we also discussed targeting the Colts defense in the passing game and followed up by recommending them in the stacks article. They ended up being pretty chalky but paid off in another Packers loss. Aaron Rodgers was just three yards short of 300 yard for the day but did toss three touchdowns. Jordy Nelson lead the way catching seven of his 13 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. Value play Davante Adams only caught four of his eight targets but did hit value by ending up with a touchdown. Tight end Richard Rodgers got an unusual amount of targets (10) but didn’t do much with them catching six for 64 yards. At his rock bottom price he paid off if you dared go down that far. Randall Cobb made an appearance in the second half and caught a touchdown but more importantly didn’t experience any setbacks with his hamstring.

We also discussed the inability of the Browns defense as a whole but keyed in on the rushing defense. Things didn’t go exactly as planned as Zeke ended up splitting carries with Alfred Morris but made hay with his 18 carries racking up 92 yards and scoring two touchdowns. The Cowboys ended up rushing 42 times in total for 168 yards, averaging four yards per carry. Continue to target the Browns. Go figure!

Drew Brees and the Saints offense showed up in the stacks article and also made us happy on Sunday. Brees put up his 5th 300+ passing yard game of the season and only trails Matt Ryan in total yards and touchdowns on the season. Brees also tossed three touchdowns on the day, two of which went to rookie standout Michael Thomas who caught five of his team-high eight targets. The other receiving options for the Saints were held in check mostly due to RB Mark Ingram having a season best game. He rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown and also caught both of his targets with a receiving touchdown as well.

We definitely weren’t perfect last week as the contrarian stack of Ryan Tannehill and Jarvis Landry failed in a big way. We target the Jets as they ranked as one of the worst defense against the pass while ranking in the top of defense vs. the rush. This set up perfect for Jay Ajayi to have a step backward after back to back 200-yard games. While he didn’t reach the 200-yard plateau, he did rush for 111 yards and a touchdown. This set the game flow in a totally opposite direction as predicted which ended up limiting Tannehill to 28 pass attempts and a sub 200-yard game. While I do believe the evaluation was correct, I also believe I undervalued just how good Ajayi is rushing the ball right now.

Finally, we talked about stacking the Kansas City Chiefs defense with running back Charcandrick West. While the defense didn’t let us down as they recorded 11 fantasy points on both sites. West was a bust rushing 13 times for just 39 yards. I think I just threw up in my mouth.


Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight some of the top fantasy performers from the previous week, in no particular order or ranking. If we discussed players in the section above we won’t go over them again here.

The Cowboys offense receives the first game ball this week. Rookie Dak Prescott tossed three touchdowns while teammate and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 92 yards and two touchdowns and continued to lead the league in rushing (891 yards). Even Jason Witten got into the action catching eight of his ten targets for 134 yards and a touchdown. It was his first 100-yard game since November 2013 so don’t bank on it happening too many more times this season.

For the Ravens it was Mike Wallace having a monster game with four catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. He is not at all a cash game play but an excellent boom or bust GPP play.

Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t give us the volume we expected catching just four of seven targets for 46 yards but did score twice.

Colin Kaepernick more than paid off his salary this past week completing 27 passes for 398 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing five times for 23 yards. His favorite target was Quinton Patton who easily hit value catching six of nine targets for 106 yards.

The reason I say these game balls are not in any particular ranking or order is due to the fact I got this far and haven’t even mentioned Melvin Gordon who toted the rock 32 times. 32!! He ended up with 196 yards on the ground with a touchdown and also caught all four of his targets in the pass game for an added 65 yards.

In the same game, that ended up being the highest scoring of the week, the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has another solid game throwing for 313 yards with three touchdowns and also rushed three times for 14 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Mariota spread the ball around beautifully to seven different receivers, none of which who had 70 yards total.

The Raiders running back situation was cleared up, even if only for one week. Latavius Murray got 20 carries on Sunday night against a pretty good Broncos defense and turned them into 114 yards and three touchdowns.

We end off with the Monday night which ultimately belongs to the quarterbacks who swapped punches most of the night. The Bills Tyrod Taylor threw for 289 yards and a touchdown and added 43 yards on the ground with another touchdown. The Seahawks Russell Wilson one-upped Taylor throwing for 282 yards with two touchdowns and also ran one in on the ground.

Shout out to Jimmy Graham as well who caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards and a touchdown and is right back in a 1 and 1A conversation with Rob Gronkowski. Hot take?


Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the New Orleans Saints Pass Defense
This week’s Matchup – Denver Broncos

The Saints defensive woes continued last week as they gave up close to 400 yards passing to Colin Kaepernick and now rank 27th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool and have allowed the most passing yards per game (300.0) in the NFL. You can definitely give a boost to Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian this week who comes with a value price tag on both sites. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have similar prices on Draftkings while Sanders comes at a discount on FanDuel. It has been Sanders leading the way for the Broncos with 86 targets on the season but look out for Thomas who has received double-digit targets in four straight weeks.

Target the San Francisco 49ers in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Arizona Cardinals

It’s no secret the 49ers lack a defense that can’t stop the run. They allowed Mark Ingram to resurge back into our fantasy lives with 158 yards rushing and have now allowed a league-worst 193 rushing yards per game. How bad is that you ask? Well, the Browns who rank 31st are allowing 146.4 yards per game, nearly a 50-yard gap. Amazing! Things won’t get any easier this week as they face the Arizona Cardinals and elite running back David Johnson. He sits 4th in the league in rushing with 705 yards and six rushing touchdowns. He has also seen a league-high 55 targets in the passing game, catching 35 of them for 407 yards. With the Cardinals sitting as heavy 13 point favorites you can expect a full workload for Johnson this week.


Thursday Night Football

As excited as I was for last Thursday’s game, I am equally as unexcited for this week’s matchup between the Browns and Ravens. The Over/Under is currently sitting at 45, which is one of the lowest totals of the week and I would not be surprised at all if it ended being the lowest scoring. Both teams lack explosive offenses ranking 20th or worse in yards per game and both teams rank middle of the league when looking at pace.

From a fantasy perspective, I will be fading all Browns as the Ravens have an elite defense ranking 1st overall vs. the rush and 7th vs. the pass. There is no one from the Ravens I would consider in a Thursday slate cash game but will throw in a few lineups with boom or bust candidates Joe Flacco and his wideouts Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Sr. The more consistent of the two has been Wallace who has 97 or more receiving yards in three straight games and leads the team in targets with 67 (8.4 Avg) on the season.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab