Contrarian DFS Plays for NFL GPP Contests – Week 4 – 9/29
*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*
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Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS. He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.
Another decent week for the column. The chaos of last weekend was not a surprise to us. The picks were only ok…Jarred Cook was tackled twice inside the ten-yard line, once at the inch line which kept me from labeling the column a success last week.
Historically, week four is far more predictive than week three over the past couple of seasons. One interesting point of view this week are guys who were super popular last week, who are likely to be under-owned his week. Stay the course. Calvin Ridley looked phenomenal. Will the Falcons make him the focal point moving forward? He’ll be highly owned after that display. Give me Julio Jones in 2018, just about every day of the week. He has a massive game forthcoming and the Sunday matchup presents a good opportunity for him. The same can be said for Eric Ebron, who laid an egg from a fantasy perspective last week, but enters this week in another great spot against the Texans, who are second worst thus far against the position. At very low expected ownership, I love him in this spot.
Correlations that I like:
DeShaun Watson / DeAndre Hopkins / Eric Ebron
Watson lead the Texans on eight drives inside the NY Giants 30-yard line last week. Two ended in turnovers and three in Field Goals. Worries about the explosive ability of this offense are overstated. Watson still threw for well over 300 yards and two scores, and clearly, could have been more scores. We’re right back to the well here. We touched on Ebron at the outset and like him here.
Drew Brees / Saquon Barkley / ODB or Shepard
This game could shoot out and if it does, all of these players will benefit. Barkley is the key that makes the Giants offense go and Beckham is central to the passing game. If you are of the opinion that Lattimore can handle ODB, Shepard will be the Gmen WR who has a big day. Given that the Saints are on the road, I expect the Giants defense to take away one of the big two of the Saints here. If that happens, the veteran QB will look to Ginn or Benjamin Watson.
Zeke Elliott / Cowboys Defense
Zeke is garnering the largest % of his offenses touches in the NFL. He had a good game last weekend but made a couple of mistakes at critical times. I expect him to put a massive game tomorrow and find the zone 1-2 times. Dallas’s defense is better than it played last weekend and has the benefit of being at home, against a Lions offense that can be mistake prone when they become one dimensional.
Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler / Chargers Defense / George Kittle
CJ Beathard’s history demonstrates that he loves short and intermediate passes to running backs and tight ends. He and Kittle had good chemistry last season and I expect that to continue tomorrow. With that being said, the Chargers are in a good spot to run away from the 49ers here and their defense will have a good shot and turnovers and pressures. Gordon will dominate the RB opportunities at the beginning of this game but Ekeler could outpace his average opportunity if the Chargers grab a big lead.\
Two Pure GPP Plays
Antonio Callaway – Cleveland Browns – With Gordon gone and Baker now the QB, throwing the ball won’t present the same challenge that it did with Tyrod. Callaway is a burner and is very affordable across all sites this weekend. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and is worth a flier against a bad Raiders defense.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles – Wentz had an underwhelming debut last weekend on a rainy day at home against the Colts. He is missing some notable weapons and travels on the road to face a Titans defense that has been stout against everyone they’ve faced to date. If you’ll recall, Carson is a special special player, who carved everyone he faced last season. At ownership levels that will not last, he is a good pivot away from some of higher owned QB’s on this slate, and we know that he loves to chuck it to Zach Ertz.