MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks and Pitchers – 9/21/16
Chris Durell
Welcome to another Hump-Day edition of our DFS baseball picks. We have a smaller split slate today with three early games highlighted by a terrific matchup for the Rockies at home. The 12 game evening slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and is jam packed with ace pitchers in exceptional spots. Let’s take a glimpse at a few pitching and stacking options for tonight’s action.
PITCHERS
Chris Sale FD 11000 DK 14000
Opponent – PHI (Eickhoff) Park – @PHI
FD – 38.96 DK – 25.72
Sale has, what appears to be, the best matchup of the entire slate which says a lot with so many aces on the mound. He gets a slight park upgrade going to Citizens Bank Park tonight where the White Sox are big -160 favorites against the Phillies who rank 29th in wOBA(.283) and wRC+(73) against left-handed pitching with a 22.7% K rate. They have also been striking out at a ridiculous 29% rate over the last 14 days. Sale has K’d ten or more batters in three of his last five starts and will have a great shot to continue that trend tonight.
Kenta Maeda FD 9000 DK 9300
Opponent – SF (Moore) Park – @LAD
FD – 32.42 DK – 21.35
If you don’t feel comfortable paying elite prices for pitching take a shot with Kenta Maeda tonight who is in a great spot to pick up a win. The Dodgers are heavy -165 favorite at home to the Giants who sit just five games back in the NL West. Maeda has been very consistent lately limiting his opponents to three earned runs or less in 10 straight starts with a 3.21 ERA and 8.52 K/9 rate. Maeda has an appealing floor at a price in the low $9K range and is safe in cash games but may have limited upside for large GPP’s as the Giants K under 20% of the time.
STACKS
Colorado Rockies vs. Luke Weaver (Cardinals)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. German Marquez (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field
This game alone makes it worth playing the three-game early slate or all day slate on Wednesday. Vegas is projecting the total at 12.5 runs right now with the Cardinals coming in as slight -135 favorites. Luke Weaver looked decent in back to back starts before an error derailed his start. The Giants scored six unearned runs off five straight hits before Weaver got the hook in the 3rd inning. In seven starts during his rookie season, he has a satisfactory 2.87 xFIP but has struggled with the long ball, giving up a 17.9% HR/FB rate. Look for Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and DJ Lemahieu to get to him early and often forcing another early exit so they can tee off on the bullpen.
On the other side of the field, the Cardinals get a huge park upgrade once again as they look to sweep the series in style. The Cards rank 4th in wOBA(.331) and 2nd in wRC+(108) against right-handed pitching this season and face off with a pitcher making his first career start. In three relief appearances in September, he has struggled walking four batters in his first 5.1 innings while striking out just three. The Cardinals are one of the few teams you can find stacking value from the leadoff spot all the way through to the seven spot on most nights. They can all contribute power as well as they have shown over the last 14 days where everyone but Jedd Gyorko has homered off the Cards with 20 or more at bats.
Texas Rangers vs. Jered Weaver (Angels)
Park – Globe Life Park in Arlington
Both the Red Sox/Orioles and Angels/Rangers games have high 10 Vegas totals today, but I lean the Rangers for a few reasons. First of all, Globe Life Park in Arlington has been a much better hitter park this season, especially as the year has gone on. The biggest thing that sways me towards the Rangers is the actual team projection. The Rangers are huge -190 home favorites while the Red Sox and Orioles game sits at a pick-em. While you would think the Rangers would be better against southpaws, they have been a bit better against right handed pitching this season ranking 9th in wOBA(.326) and 8th in ISO(.177). Start with the new leadoff man Carlos Gomez then add Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre to complete the top four of the order then consider value plays in Roughned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy and Nomar Mazara in the bottom half of the lineup.