NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 10/19/16

Chris Durell

In this early week article, I am going to cover a few recaps from some of the prior week’s top matchups in the “What We Learned” section along with some defense vs. position rankings. I will then preview the Thursday night game from a DFS perspective if you just can’t wait until Sunday. Finally, I will have a look at each position and a few players to think about early in the week before giving you my top QB/WR stacks on Thursday/Friday.

What We Learned

Wow, What an odd week! Going to start off with some notable players who most likely helped absolutely no one this past weekend. If they did, good one ya. Where is your crystal ball? It started on Thursday night as the Chargers beat the Broncos. With the Chargers having a beaten up secondary you would’ve thought that Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders was going to go off, but no, it was Bennie Fowler Jr. catching the only touchdown for the Broncos.

The fantasy owners of Mark Ingram were once again robbed of a touchdown as Coby Fleener took a 2-yard rush into the endzone on a 4th and goal. It would have salvaged his day as he rushed for just 51 yards. On the other side of the ball, I fully expected a bounce back for the Panthers, and while they started slow, their offense picked it up in the 4th quarter recording 21 points. However, it wasn’t Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen getting the love. It was Devin Funchness and Ed Dickson getting the touchdowns.

Other notable irrelevant fantasy performances came from Arrelious Benn, Levine Tiololo, Darius Heyward-Bey(rushing TD), Cobi Hamilton(recently promoted from practice roster), Damien Williams and the biggest surprise of the day was a rushing TD from Dontari Poe. It was a lateral pass but either way, it was a touchdown for the 346-pound defensive linemen.

Other Notable Things to Take Away from Last Week

Ok, ok enough with the bad and onto the good things from last Sunday. LeSean McCoy got his revenge on Chip Kelly as he carried the ball 19 times for 140 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers.

Marcus Mariota proved he is a top 10 fantasy QB completing 17 of 24 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns while rushing the ball seven times for 64 yards. Demarco Murray continued to get the bulk of the Titans RB share with 21 carries but was limited to just 65 yards (3.1 Avg) but got close to value with a touchdown. On the other side of the ball, Terrelle Pryor made his return to fantasy relevance catching nine of his 13 targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort.

Odell Beckham Jr. has a monster day with eight catches for 222 yards and two touchdowns. He appears to be back to having fun as he proposed to the kicking net then seemed to be spooning with it on the ground. I guess we can put up with the weirdness as long as we continue to get these blowup games.

Terrance West continues to a heavy workload as he received 23 carries and produced 87 yards and got into the endzone twice. With Steve Smith out of the picture in week 6 Mike Wallace(9) and Dennis Pitta(10) received the largest target share but only produced 10 catches for 133 yards.

Drew Brees had another monster day with 465 yards passing with four touchdowns spread around to Coby Fleener, Michael Thomas, Brandon Cooks, and Josh Hill.

For the Panthers Jonathan Stewart returned to action and received 19 carries collecting 85 yards and two touchdowns. Cam Newton made up for a sloppy day in garbage time and reached 322 yards passing for two touchdowns and also rushed one in for a touchdown. The Panthers are in big trouble falling to 1-5 on the season and should be a good team to target going forward as they will have to play lights out to have a chance at playoffs or will be completely out of it and play with nothing to lose. The good news is they will most likely be less-owned than the first six weeks of the season and we all know the upside.

The Steelers lost more than the game to the Dolphins on Sunday as Ben Roethlisberger suffered a torn meniscus. The good news is there is a chance he may return after the Steelers bye week which comes in week 8. This most definitely downgrades Antonio Brown this weekend with Landry Jones at the helm, but you can continue to roll out *Le’Veon Bell who should see the same, if not more, workload in week 7.

The Dolphins saw the return of Arian Foster but is was Jay Ajayi who stole the show with 204 rushing yards and two trips to the endzone. Don’t get fooled and follow last weeks points as Ajayi will see a huge increase in ownership and now faces a tough test in the Buffalo Bills defense. Jarvis Landry bounced back catching seven of his nine targets for 91 yards so feel free to roll him out in all formats moving forward.

Tom Brady continued his comeback with and 350+ passing yard game with three touchdowns and it was Rob Gronkowski having the monster day with seven catches for 162 yards and a touchdown.

A.J. Green caught eight of his game-high ten targets for 88 yards but continues to be held back by the lack luster QB play of Andy Dalton.

The Falcons/Seahawks game looked to be over at half as the home team was up 17-3 and looked dominant.Christine Michael continued to be a strong option in the backfield rushing 18 times for 64 yards with two touchdowns while Jimmy Graham had another good day catching six balls on nine targets for 89 yards. Look for the Seahawks to continue to play defense, run the play and play-action to Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin. I say the game “looked” to be over as the Falcons came out of the gates after halftime on fire scoring 21 straight points. Matt Ryan continued his dominance throwing for his fourth 300+ yard day and 15th TD of the season. Julio Jones bounced back in a big way against Richard Sherman catching seven of nine for 139 yards and a touchdown. Look for another big day from Ryan and Jones on Sunday as the face the Chargers who rank 24th in passing yards allowed per game (279).

The Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott continue to battle each other for the rookie of the year honours as Dak threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns while Zeke rushed the ball 28 times for 157 yards (5.6 average).

Last but not least we continued to see the dominance from Cardinals RB David Johnson on Monday Night Football. He carried the ball 22 times for 11 yards (5.0 avg) and got into the endzone on three occasions. He alo received six targets in the pass game, catching three for 27 yards.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

I will take a look at some top defenses to target at each position based on their early play and compared to last years ranks. For the Def vs. Pos Rankings I will be using the Player Lab Tool on the website. Let’s take a look.

Target RB against New Orleans Saints
This weeks Matchup – Kansas City Chiefs

The Saints have certainly struggled on defense overall and have allowed the 2nd most yards per game in the NFL. While you can target any position against them, it’s the run defense that we should be targeting this weekend. Using The Player Lab Tool you can easily see that the Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to vs. rushing and are the only team to allow ten rushing touchdowns on the season. The Chiefs got Jamaal Charles back last week, but he was heavily out-touched by Spencer Ware 24-9 while putting up 131 yards and a touchdown. Look for the Chiefs to try and run the ball 35+ times while trying to control the clock and keep Drew Brees and the Saints offense off the field as much as possible. Stay tuned for any news about the workload of each running back, but I don’t see how Spencer Ware isn’t going to receive another 20+ touches in this matchup.

Target the Green Bay Packers in the Pass Game
This weeks Matchup – Chicago Bears

The Packers defense has been elite vs. running backs allowing just 72 rush yards per game and the least fantasy points per game among all teams. It has been the complete opposite in the passing game as they have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They will face the Chicago Bears this week who have been surprisingly strong with Brian Hoyer behind center as he has thrown for a 69% completion percentage, 1,396 yards and six touchdowns with zero interceptions. Even with Kevin White out, Hoyer has still had two viable options to throw to in Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith. Both received double-digit targets last week and Meredith has received double-digit targets two weeks in a row. With the Packers so tough on the running game you can also expect Jordan Howard to get targeted 5+ times in the passing game.

Thursday Night Football

This week on Thursday Night Football we get the Chicago Bears visiting Lambo Field to face the Green Bay Packers. The Packers currently are sitting as 9 point favorites at home and projected to score around 27 points while the Bears are projected to score under 20. The Packers sit at 3-2 in the NFC North and sit just two games back of the Vikings. That is pretty impressive considering QB Aaron Rodgers has been less than impressive averaging just 234 passing yards per game with a low 60% completion percentage. While he hasn’t gotten the yardage, he has already thrown for 10 touchdowns (8th most) and has huge fantasy upside. He has an elite WR in Jordy Nelson and also has Randall Cobb back involved the last couple weeks with back to back double-digit target games. With Eddie Lacy out, for what sounds like awhile, expect the Packers to go even more throw heavy.

On the Bears side of things, I discussed above in the Defense vs. Position section that the Packers are dominant in shutting down the run game allowing just 72 rush yards per game(2nd least). The Packers are the favorite and expected to get out front early which should force the hand of the Brian Hoyer who is projected to throw it 35+ times on Thursday night. He has elite WR Alshon Jeffery who has yet to break out in 2016 with just one 100+ yard game(week 1) and has yet to reach the endzone. Look for that to change this week. For PPR formats Hoyer also has Cameron Meredith who has been filling in nicely for injured Kevin White and has received 27 targets over the last two weeks and has caught 20 of them and recorded back to back 100+ yard games. You can also expect RB Jordan Howard to get involved in the pass game as he isn’t likely to do much damage on the ground. He has touchdown upside and will get the goaline attempts and has been viable in the passing game as well catching 14 of his 19 targets this season.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the weekend.