NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 10/26/16

Chris Durell

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab tool.

What We Learned

We are going to switch it up a little bit this week. I am going to start by going over the stacks I recommended last week. It is extremely important to always look back and analyze not only what worked but what didn’t and why? If we can do this successfully every week we will continually help ourselves grow into better daily fantasy football players.

My first stack was the Bucs offense on the road in San Francisco. Running Back Jacquizz Rodgers stole the show a bit running for 154 yards but the combination of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans still managed to hit value on Sunday. Winston threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns, with two of those going Evans who caught eight of his 13 targets for 96 yards. Their value ended up a little better on FanDuel as both players were just short of their respective position bonuses.

It was a similar story with stack #2 as LeGarrette Blount ran all over the Steelers defense for 127 yards and two touchdowns. Tom Brady was expensive so his 22 yards and two touchdowns wasn’t quite enough but Rob Gronkowski definitely paid off making the most of his four targets recording 93 yards and a touchdown averaging 23.3 yards per catch. The value plays in the Pats offense worked out as Julian Edelman caught nine of 10 targets for 60 yards and James White got his touchdown on two catches and added 32 yards.

The contrarian stack was a let down this week as the Jags offense continues to struggle averaging under 20 points per game. Even against a weak Raiders defense they could only muster 16 points. Wideout Allen Robinson continues to struggle, and it comes down to the deep throws as he is averaging just 11.4 yards per catch after seeing an elite 17.5 yards per catch last year. I do think this is the player we will continue to see but until he and Blake Bortles get it going and show us some upside they have to be avoided unless you are of course playing the Monday-Thursday slate and working with late swaps on DraftKings.

The Defense/Running Back stack worked out for RB running back Demarco Murray who ran for 107 yards and a touchdown and also caught three passes for 20 yards. The Titans defense, however, didn’t hold up their end of the deal letting Andrew Luck go off for 341 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight some of the top fantasy performers from the previous week, in no particular order or ranking.

Jay Ajayi went bonkers once again rushing 28 times for another 200+ yard game becoming just the fourth player in history to do so (OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams).

A.J. Green torched the Browns to the tune of 169 yards and a touchdown on eight catches.

Aaron Rodgers had a slow start in last Thursday’s game against the Bears but turned it on in the second half and ended up with 39 completions on a whopping 56 attempts and recorded three touchdowns. The Bears shut down Jordy Nelson prompting Rodgers to attack his other WR’s Randall Cobb (11 of 15 for 95 yards /1 TD) and DeVante Adams (13 of 16 for 132 yards/2 TD) who both had big days.

Julio Jones didn’t get into the endzone last week but he blew up catching nine of his 15 targets for 174 yards and leads the league with 830 yards on the season.

LeGarrette Blount rushed for a season-high 127 yards on 24 attempts and has now scored a touchdown in all but one of the Patriots seven games this season.

Even in a 6-6 defensive grinding game Cardinals RB David Johnson continued his elite play. He rushed 33 times for 113 yards and also caught eight of his 13 targets for 58 yards. Continue to trust him in all formats as he is the most matchup proof RB in the game.

The Broncos continue to climb the Power Rankings and proved just how deep they are at RB. CJ Anderson (16) and Devontae Booker (17) split carries against the Texans on Monday night combining for 190 yards with both reaching the endzone. I will consider Anderson the lead back until we see proof of an equal split moving forward.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Oakland Raiders Defense
This week’s Matchup – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They did a good job keeping the Jags off the scoreboard last week limiting them to just 16 points, but the Raiders defense did give up 344 yards of total offense and still sit dead last in yards allowed per game (430.4). Looking at the Player Lab Tool you will also notice their defense ranks 29th in Defense vs. the Run and 28th in Defense vs. the Pass. Stay tuned for the stacks article folks; you are going to see more Bucs this week.

Target the Colts Run Defense
This week’s Matchup – Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts have allowed the opposition to rush for 100+ yards in six out of their seven games. They rank dead last in Defense vs. the Pass when looking at Player Lab Tool and things won’t get any easier this week against the Chiefs and the red hot Spencer Ware. The Chiefs are the early road favorites in a game with a high 50 Vegas total. Look for Chiefs to gameplan around giving Ware and Charles 20+ rush attempts this week with upside for much more if they get up early.

Thursday Night Football

The Jaguars and Titans meet this week in Tennessee in an AFC West showdown. Both teams are coming off home losses but remain in striking distance of the division-leading Texans. The game is setting up to be a low scoring defensive battle with not a whole lot of fantasy appeal as both teams rank inside the Top 10 in yards allowed per game. The Titans are the early 3.5 point home favorites with the total floating around 43 points.

From a fantasy perspective I will be avoiding this game for the most part as I can’t trust the Jaguars struggling offense will get back on track on a short week against a defense that ranks 12th in Defense vs. the Pass and 10th in Defense vs. the Run when looking at the Player Lab Tool.

If you really want to get your feet wet in the Thursday action the one play to consider is Titans RB DeMarco Murray. He has been getting heavy usage this season with a heavy 67% load rating on the Player Lab Tool and is projected for right around 20 carries again this week and that’s not counting his targets in the passing game. Playing only Murray in Thurs-Mon slate cash game is a viable option as you will most likely find at least 5% of the field will roster a hefty amount of Thursday night players. This strategy is perfect for weeks like this where there isn’t much projected for fantasy points. If you want to fade the game completely I would still consider playing in some Thurs-Mon slate double ups and heads up contests and even a few GPP’s. If the game ends up like the Cardinals/Seahawks you will be way ahead of the rest of the field before your team even takes the field on Sunday. This strategy is best used on DraftKings where you have the late swap option.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab