NFL Lineup Optimizer Picks and Recap – 9/21/16
Chris Durell
In this early week article, I am going to cover a few recaps from some of the prior week’s top matchups in the “What We Learned” section along with some defense vs. position rankings. I will then preview the Thursday night game from a DFS perspective if you just can’t wait until Sunday. Finally, I will have a look at each position and a few players to think about early in the week before giving you my top QB/WR stacks on Thursday/Friday.
What We Learned – Week Two NFL
We saw a ton of RB injuries which will make Week 3 interesting when trying to find value. Matt Asiata is a likely candidate as he will get a lot of carries now that Adrian Peterson has officially been ruled out. The Giants lost Rashad Jennings in the second half after he injured his hand. The Giants do expect him to play for Week 3 versus the Redskins but expect Shane Vereen to benefit, especially on DraftKings with full point PPR. Jonathan Stewart suffered a hamstring injury after just five carries which paved the way for Fozzy Whittaker to receive 16 carries and rushed for an even 100 yards. No exact timetable for Stewart’s return.
Other notable injuries from Week Two include:
Danny Woodhead – Out for season
Doug Martin – expected to miss three weeks
Ameer Abdullah – Lions have placed him on IR, which requires him to miss eight weeks
Thomas Rawls – Bruise, should play this week
Arian Foster – Groin issue, expected to be a long shot to play
The highest projected game and potential fantasy gold mine turned out to be a flop between the Giants and Saints. After a 400+ yard/4 TD effort in Week 1 Drew Brees only threw for 263 yards and 1 TD on Sunday while Eli Manning didn’t toss a TD but threw for 368 yards, which is promising. It was Sterling Sheppard not Odell Beckham Jr. going off this week catching all eight of his receptions for 117 yards.
It was also an odd game between the Steelers and Bengals in a match that saw 786 yards of total offense in which Antonio Brown and AJ Green were both held under 40 yards. For the Bengals it was Giovani Bernard benefiting from the Bengals trailing for the majority of the game as he received 11 targets, catching nine of them for 100 yards and a TD. Two of the three Steeler TD’s were caught by Tight Ends Jesse James and Xavier Grimble. Moving on!
The Cardinals bounced back after a Week One loss to the Patriots by dismantling the Buccaneers on Sunday. Carson Palmer was a huge DFS value last week, especially on DraftKings at $6,900, and he didn’t disappoint throwing for 308 yards and 3 TD’s. He once again proved his favorite target is Larry Fitzgeraldwho caught six of his 11 targets for 81 yards and a TD. Next in the pecking order is clearly RB David Johnson who didn’t have the best days rushing(12/45/0) but caught three passes on five targets for 98 yards. On the other side of the ball, Jameis Winston laid an egg after an excellent week one. He threw for just 243 yards and 1 TD with four interceptions on the day. His one TD went to his stud wideout Mike Evans who caught just six of his league leading 17 targets in week two. It was disappointing to see so many drops, but it is very promising seeing him get that many targets.
Defense vs. Position Rankings
I have added this section now that we have more than a one-game sample size. I will take a look at some top defenses to target at each position based on their early play and compared to last years ranks. Let’s take a look.
Quarterback/Wide Receiver
I will group these two positions together as they correlate very closely as most of a QB’s targets will be to his WR’s.
After two weeks the top team to target your QB/WR stacks against is the Oakland Raiders. With promises coming into the season, they have been awful so far allowing 819 passing yards and 7 TD’s with five going to WR’s. They will now travel to Tennessee to face the Titans making a Marcus Mariota/Tajae Sharpe stack very intriguing.
The other big standout team that has ranked poorly vs. QB’s and WR’s is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The have given up just 419 yards through the air but 6 TDs and no interceptions. Wide Receivers have recorded 330 of those yards with five of the six touchdowns. They draw the Ravens this week and the big arm of Joe Flacco and his two top wide receivers, Steve Smith Sr. (15 targets) and Mike Wallace (12 targets).
Running Back
The biggest standout when looking for defenses to target your running backs against is the Indianapolis Colts who have allowed almost ten more fantasy points per game to RB’s than any other team. They have allowed 236 yards on the ground with 3 TD’s, while also giving up 15 receptions on 18 targets for 155 yards and 2 TDs. Melvin Gordon should be on your radar this week for sure.
The other team I will be heavily targeting this week will be the Kansas City Chiefs facing Matt Forte and the Jets. The Chiefs allowed the Chargers duo of Woodhead/Gordon to rush for 146 yards and 2 TDs in week one and allowed the Texans to rush for 97 yards in week two. This week they get Forte who has already seen 52 carries for the Jets, accumulating 196 yards (3.8 yds/carry) and three touchdowns.
Tight End
The top team to target at the position has been the Lions which could be a little skewed after week one saw Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle catch seven balls for 88 yards and three touchdowns. Things didn’t get much better against the Titans in week two as they allowed Delanie Walker six catches for 83 yards and one touchdown. The Packers don’t offer much in the way of TE targets but if you wanted to stack QB/WR/RB you could always punt with Jared Cook who has received eight targets in the first two weeks.
I will also be heavily targeting the Falcons until they can prove they can stop a TE in the red zone. They allowed the Bucs to score twice (Myers/Sefarian-Jenkins) in week one and then allowed Clive Walford to catch six balls for 50 yards and a touchdown in week two. This week they get a division rival in the Saints on Monday Night Football. Coby Fleener has disappointed so far catching just three balls but has received 12 targets which is Top 10 at the position. The other nice thing about Fleener is the price has dropped and so will
the ownership.
Thursday Night Football
At this point, I have not decided whether I want some exposure to the Texans/Patriots this Thursday. The game currently sits with the Texans slightly favored, as it is still unclear who the Patriots will start at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo who could be cleared to play. However, it is very doubtful. If it is rookie Jacoby Brissett starting, I am tempted to load up on the Texans defense. The Patriots rank in the bottom of the league after two weeks in fantasy points against QB’s and WR’s so stacking Brock Osweiler with DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller makes a terrific GPP play this week.
Week 3 SUN/MON Top Games to Target
In this final section, I am going to cover a few games that could be optimal for daily fantasy. I will be using the Player Lab tool on the website to look specifically at things like Vegas Totals, Opponent Defense rankings, past performances and most of all future projections.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
I am jumping right through Sunday and into the Monday Night Football game. The game is not available in the Millionaire Makers on either site as usual but presents an excellent opportunity if you play the Sun-Mon slate on FanDuel or Thurs-Mon slate on DraftKings. Looking at defensive rankings over the first two weeks these teams bot rank in the bottom four of total yards allowed with the Saints ranking 21st (903 yards against). This would surely explain the highest Vegas projected total (54) of the week. After two games both Matt Ryan (730 yards/5 TD) and Drew Brees (686 yards/5 TD) sit inside the Top 5 at the QB position and both have elite options to get the ball to week to week. Julio Jones has not been 100% so far this season, but it has hardly shown in the box score as he has recorded a TD in each of the first two games and is coming off his first 100 yard game of the season. He gets an extra day of rest and should be ready to go for MNF.
Mohamed Sanu makes a viable value option and has received 13 targets in his first two games with the Falcons. The running back situation isn’t a complete time-share but Tevin Coleman is going to take some snaps away from Devonta Freeman but not enough for me to consider rostering him. I think if anything the situation keeps Freeman’s price in the value area and his ownership down making him a great GPP option. On the other side of the field, Drew Brees has Brandon Cooks (18 target/13 receptions/211 yards/2 TDs), Willie Snead (17/14/226/2) and rookie Michael Thomas (11/10/114/0) to toss it to while Mark Ingram finds his stride at RB after struggling to open the season.
San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
On Sunday I will focus a lot of my lineups around the Chargers/Colts game which has the second highest total(52) of the week and has a thin -2.5 spread with the home team coming in as the early favorites. This is another situation of bad defenses facing off as the Colts rank 30th (848 yards allowed), and the Chargers sit 22nd (801 yards allowed). I lean the Colts offense over the Chargers as Andrew Luck is an elite QB. He has bounced back nicely after an injury-shortened season in 2015 and has passed for 582 yards in the first two weeks with five touchdowns and just one interception. Leading the way for the receiving core for Luck is TY Hilton who has received the most targets by a wide receiver not named Mike Evans. Donte Moncrief was the #2 in the system until he left with an injury Sunday. If he is unavailable this Sunday, Hilton will continue to see huge volume and Phillip Dorsett could become the value play of the week at the position. On the other side of the ball, Phillip Rivers and Co. make for an attractive play in cash games or as a part of a stack that won’t cost a ton of salary. The loss of Keenan Allen in week one and Danny Woodhead in week two have opened up big opportunities for Melvin Gordon, Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams while old reliable Antonio Gates makes a tournament play only due to his TD dependent value.
Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my Favorite Stacking options for the weekend. If you have any questions or comments hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Cheers!