NFL Lineup Optimizer Stack Targets for Week 4 – 9/30/16
Chris Durell
Week four is gearing up to be quite fascinating from a DFS perspective. The Eagles and Packers are beneficiaries of the first early season by while Colts and Jaguars travel to London for an early Sunday morning game starting at 9:30 a.m. ET. It won’t be included in the main so I will focus my stack recommendations on the 12-game main slate.
If you have been using the Player Lab Tool – Note that all the data took a season switch over the past couple of days with 2016 data now displayed. There is a tremendous amount of data available and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter in the data you want while allowing you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get the players you want you can then flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you can create and export up to 50 lineups.
Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I consider when constructing my tournament stacks:
High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.
Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.
Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stack.
Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
QB – Cam Newton
Elite Options – Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen
Value Options – Ted Ginn Jr.
Look for a big bounce-back effort from the Panthers after losing two of their first three games of the season. The slow start can most certainly be accredited to the quality of defenses they have seen in the Vikings and Broncos who both rank inside the Top 10. We can expect more of the Panthers offense we saw in week two when they blew the 49ers out of the water 46-27. They get one of the best matchups of all 24 teams on Sunday when looking at the Player Lab tool highlighting Pace, Vegas O/U and Poor Defense vs. Position. Cam Newton is projected for just 35.7 pass attempts but he can also hurt a defense with his legs. The Falcons defense is ranked dead last against the pass on the tool and allow the third highest plays per game (70). Kelvin Benjamin should see a ton of targets early as he was shut out last week on just one target. The safest option in the offense is TE Greg Olsen who sits first in targets (27) and yards (259) at the position. If you want more of a value home run play take a look at Ted Ginn Jr. who acts as the deep threat most of the time and has seen a target uptick in each of the last three weeks.
San Diego Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints
QB – Philip Rivers
Elite Option – Travis Benjamin, Melvin Gordon
Value Options – Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry
The Chargers and Saints game holds the highest projected Vegas O/U of the slate and has a thin spread of four points leaning towards the home team. It will be an exceptional game to stack all around but I lean the home team as they may come a bit lower owned and are also one of the teams that fits under my three filters. The Saints are rated as the second worst team when looking at the Player Lab’s Defense vs. Pass rating and have allowed a pace of 67.3 through three games. Rivers is projected for 40+ pass attempts this week and will have two elite targets in Travis Benjamin and Tyrell WIlliams who have nice matchups vs. the Saints corners Ken Crawley and Sterling Moore. Both WR’s have received 20+ targets this season and have filled in admirably without Keenan Allen. Another loss that has hurt and helped the team from is Danny Woodhead. It hurts from a real life perspective as he was an excellent player with tremendous hands. It helps us from a fantasy perspective as it has opened the door for Melvin Gordon who already holds a 64% Load Rating on the Player Lab tool which is just the % of carries that player receives in the offense. Without Woodhead that number is sure to go up. One trend we noticed last week is that he received seven targets in the game, catching four and picking up 43 yards. The extra yardage he will get in the passing game makes him a near must play on both sites. If you want a value option you can once again punt with Hunter Henry if Antonio Gates is out of the lineup. In his first start, Henry caught all five of his targets for 72 yards and could have had a bigger day if not for a fumble lost.
Contrarian Stack of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
QB – Jamies Winston
Elite WR Options – Mike Evans
Value Options – Cameron Brate
I know what you’re thinking. It’s the Broncos, they are really good. I do agree, but love a Winston/Evans stack from a game flow perspective this week. The Broncos are favorites and will most likely win the game which will force Winston to continue to throw it up at a Drew Brees like pace. With 142 pass attempts through three weeks, he leads the league in that category and has already had two games with 50+ attempts after just one all last season. It’s clear the coaching staff has unleashed the beast. It helps he has an elite WR to go to in Mike Evans. Yes, he is labeled as a guy who drops passes, but when you get the volume he does (37 targets, 2nd behind Antonio Brown) you can afford a few here and there. He is a physical monster at 6’5” 231 lbs and if the Bucs can move him around and match him against Bradley Roby he could have a huge day. Be patient in this one as the bulk of the Bucs fantasy work could come in garbage time in the second half. It doesn’t matter where the points come from as long as they come. If I am playing a single entry or low entry max I will probably just go with the chalk in the first two stacks but in the larger guaranteed prize pool tournaments I will target the Bucs who will be extremely low-owned.
Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week
Arizona Defense
RB David Johnson vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Cardinals were somewhat embarrassed in Buffalo last week allowing the Bills to rush for 208 yards and three touchdowns. Carson Palmer looked awful completing just 26 of 50 passes for 287 yards while throwing four interceptions. The one thing that continued to work for the Cards was RB David Johnson who rushed 19 times for 83 yards (4.4 average) and two touchdowns. He continues to get the bulk of the work for the Cards with a 66% Load Rating and also sits 5th in targets by a RB (17) this season. The Rams present a tough matchup for Johnson ranking 10th in Defense vs. the rush, but the game flow should dictate this one and Johnson should see the volume as shown by his 18.2 project carries. The defense gets a great matchup vs. the Rams who are only averaging 15.3 points per game and face a QB in Case Keenum who has a season high of 239 passing yards. Look for multiple sacks and turnovers for the Cardinals in a huge bounce back win.