NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 6 – 10/14/16

Chris Durell

If you have been using the Player Lab Tool note that all the data took a season switch over over the past couple of days with 2016 data now displayed. There is a tremendous amount of data available, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Pittsburgh Steelers v.s Miami Dolphins
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Elite Options – Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell
Value Options – Sammie Coates, Jesse James

Looking at the QB position on the Player Lab Tool you will quickly notice that Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers rank high in many categories. The game has the second highest projected total (49) and Big Ben is ranked 3rd behind only Newton and Brees in projected fantasy points for the week. Even with the Steelers sitting as 7.5 point favorites Big Ben is still projected to for 40+ pass attempts which makes sense given he has attempts 37+ in four of his first five games. His top option is Antonio Brown who is one of the safest options at any position and leads the league in average targets per week (13.3). Star RB Le’Veon Bell also makes an elite play as he gets a ton of volume as a rusher and pass-catcher. In his two games since returning, he has rushed the ball 38 times for 210 yards while catching 14 of his 17 targets in the passing game. He has yet to reach the endzone this season, but that is likely to change Sunday. If you are looking for some value in your stack take a look at TE Jesse James who is coming off a season-high eight targets and has a touchdown in three of his last four games. If Sammie Coates makes the start he is also a high upside GPP play but will be highly-owned coming off a six catch 139-yard game reaching the endzone twice.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
QB – Cam Newton
Elite Option – Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen

The Panthers season has not gotten off to a positive start as they have gone 1-4 and sit in the basement of the NFC South. Sunday’s matchup against the Saints has quickly become a do or die situation. Cam Newton has been a full participant at practice and ready to roll after a week away with a concussion. Looking at the Player Lab Tool he is the highest rankings QB from a PTS/$ perspective and can beat you in many ways. Because of his ability to run he is a much better play on FanDuel as he rarely reaches the 300+ or 100+ threshold for the bonus points on DraftKings. Either way he is a top play this week. Kelvin Benjamin showed up on the Thursday injury report but got in a limited session and is expected to play. That is a good thing as he will get an elite matchup against the Saints and their 28th rank vs. the Pass. You can also rely on the Panthers elite TE Greg Olsen who has received double-digit targets in three straight games and leads all TE with 53 for the season.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Tennessee Titans
QB – Marcus Mariota
Elite Option – Delanie Walker
Value Options – Tajae Sharpe

For my contrarian stack for large field tournaments this week I will be rolling with the Titans. How can they be contrarian as 7.5 point favorites against the Browns you say? Just because they have a good matchup doesn’t make it any easier to roster Marcus Mariota and his average at best-receiving core. They rank 15th in yards per game due to the beastly running of DeMarco Murray who has carried the Titans to an average of 148 rushing yards per game. Mariota has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game but has multiple touchdown passes in three of his five games. He now gets an elite matchup against the Browns who rank 31st in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab. The most targeted receiver has been rookie Tajae Sharpe who has averaged 8.3 targets per game. He has been completely off the radar since week one though with only 11 catches for 113 yards. He is a very talented WR and will be extremely low-owned. The chalk play for the Titans is going to be Delanie Walker who proved to be Mariota’s favorite weapon last season as he recorded his first 1,000-yard season. He has already received 27 targets (5.3 per game) and should see that total go up once the offense starts clicking.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Tennessee Titans & DeMarco Murray

The Titans defense has been the bright spot of the team this far as they rank 10th overall in yards allowed per game. There is an excellent chance that ranking gets better after week six as they get an elite matchup vs. the Browns and their awful 0-5 record. The Titans have yet to recover a fumble which can be a bit flukey, but they have picked off six passes this year. The interceptions should start to grow as the pass rush starts to pick it up as they have only recorded seven sacks this year. It’s more about the opponent in this matchup as the Browns have turned the ball over a total of eight times so far in 2016 (10th most).

Pair the defense with RB DeMarco Murray who has been incredible so far this season with 461 rushing yards (2nd behind Zeke) for a cool 5.0 average per rush with three touchdowns. He has also been impressive in the passing game catching 24 of his 27 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns. He is an elite option in an elite matchup and is safe in all formats.