NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 10 – 11/11/16

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool , and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Options – Jimmy Graham
Value Option – Doug Baldwin
Opposition Correlation Option – Rob Gronkowski

This week we start with Sunday Night Football and the much anticipated Super Bowl 49 rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. The Patriots open as 7.5 point favorites in one of the slates highest overall totals (49). The Patriots have been unbeatable at home (4-0) while the Seahawks have struggled on the road (1-2-1). While the spread suggests the Patriots should roll over the Seahawks there is more at play here. Pride is at stake after the nature of the defeat the Hawks took in the Super Bowl. I fully expect this to be a boxing match between heavyweights exchanging blows till the final bell or whistle.

The Seahawks offense should once again rely on the legs and arm of Russell Wilson as the run game has been nonexistent. They rank 30th as a team in rushing yards per game (75.4) and in a 31-26 win over the Bills on Monday night no player had more than five rushing attempts. Wilson has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and has seen his rushing totals drop off the table but so has his price. He is trending in the right direction rushing three times last week, one of which resulted in a touchdown. The Patriots have been tough on the tight end from a fantasy perspective but haven’t faced one of Jimmy Graham’s caliber yet. The good news is that the Patriots rank 25th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool putting Graham in a great situation to explode this week. The resurgence has been fun to watch as he has already recorded three 100 yard games and it is getting close that 1/1A status with Rob Gronkowski. Speaking of Gronk, if you are looking for a contrarian approach to tournaments this week consider paying up for both elite tight ends. There is enough value at wide receiver to make it happen and still get David Johnson in your lineup.

Philadelphia Eagles
QB – Carson Wentz
Elite Option – Jordan Matthews
Value Option – Zach Ertz

Looking at the Player Lab Tool this week we see that the Eagles are going to receive a pace upgrade facing the 6-3 Falcons. This is good news for rookie Carson Wentz coming off one of his best games of the year. The completion % wasn’t there as he completed just 27 of 47 but threw for a new career high 364 yards. He didn’t record a touchdown but could have easily had multiple scores throughout the game last week against the Giants. This week he faces a Falcons team that ranks 26th in Defense vs. the Pass and are allowing opponents to run a very high 67.7 plays per game. Pair Wentz with #1 receiving option Jordan Matthews who has been trending up over the last few weeks. In divisional matchups vs. the Cowboys and Giants he has caught 17 balls on 25 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. Facing another high-powered offense it is very likely Wentz out performs his passing attempt projection of 37. This will give Matthews a great shot at making it three straight games with double-digit targets. He is an elite play from a PTS/$ perspective at a price under $7K on both sites. Tight end Zach Ertz has been very inconsistent this season but also appears to be trending up as he received a season-high eight targets last week putting up 97 yards, which was also a season high. His inconsistency has kept his price in the low tier on both sites. Much like the Seahawks, stacking the Eagles opens up a ton of salary that can be used on multiple elite players elsewhere in your lineup.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Chicago Bears
QB – Jay Cutler
Elite Option – Alshon Jeffery
Correlation Opponent Option – Mike Evans

From a contrarian side of things this week I will be focusing my attention on the matchup between the Bucs and Bears. The Over/Under has opened up at 46 with the Bears sitting as one-point road favorites. If the Bucs Mike Evans is cleared from the concussion protocol and is a full go I can easily see the Bucs ending up as the favorites by Sunday while the total could also climb closer to 50. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league when looking at points per game but it’s the defensive side of the ball where we will be focusing our attention. The Bucs have struggled defensively this season, in particular through the air where they rank 24th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool allowing 281 passing yards per game. This gives a boost to Jay Cutler who made his return last week throwing for 252 yards and a touchdown vs. a tough Vikings defense. Those totals should be closer to his floor this week with multiple touchdowns and 300 yards a real possibility. Look for him to get elite wideout Alshon Jeffery involved early and often. He has seen 32 targets over the past three weeks and will be looking to record his first 100-yard game since week one. I have been big on the correlation between the top two receiving options on opposing teams in my stacks and will highlight this once again here. If the game turns out to be a shootout both Jeffery and Evans should see double-digit targets and fill the fantasy box score.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Arizona Cardinals & David Johnson

This section pretty much wrote itself this week. We will start with the Cardinals defense that is leading the league allowing just 297 total yards per game. They get an elite matchup vs. the 49ers offense that ranks 29th with just 314.5 yards per game. That isn’t all. Holding opponents to minimal yards and points doesn’t always equate to the type of fantasy points needed to win a GPP. Good news! The Cardinals sit tied for fifth with 15 takeaways this season while the 49ers sit in a tie for second with 17 giveaways. Now that sounds like a recipe for a big fantasy day from the Cards defense.

From a running back point of view, there is no other matchup better than facing the 49ers this season. They have been historically bad ranking 32nd in Defense vs. the Run and allowing a phenomenal 193 yards per game. You would take any running back against this defense but it isn’t any running back they will face this week. David Johnson has been elite this season sitting fourth in rushing with 703 yards and leads all running backs in targets (55), receptions (35) and yards (407) through the air. The Cardinals are huge favorites(-13.5) and should control this game from the start leading to another high volume game from Johnson. The only fear is that the Cardinals get too far ahead in which they rest Johnson in the second half.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab