*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

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As we get ready to approach May, we’re finally moving away from the cold weather that has led to some abnormal starts this season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: at BAL, vs. SEA

Carrasco is off to a great start this season, posting a 2.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts. His K/9 sits at only 6.8, but expect that to change quickly considering his 8.9 career K/9. He limited batters to a 29.3% hard-hit rate last year and has been even better this season at 20.8%. His first start of the week against the Orioles is a great matchup considering their .215 team batting average is the lowest in baseball. He’ll face a much tougher lineup in the Mariners for his second start, but he’s still someone who could be in line for an excellent week.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals: at SF, vs. AZ

Gonzalez had a surprisingly stellar season in 2017, finishing with a 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9. A deeper dive indicates he was a bit lucky though since his FIP was 3.93 and opponents had just a .258 BABIP. He saw a dip in velocity for his fastball, but he countered that by throwing his changeup a career-high 18.5% of the time. Both trends have continued this season as well, resulting in him again having success with a 2.49 ERA through four starts. He’ll face one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Giants for his first start and then he’ll get the Diamondbacks at home after pitching to a 2.76 ERA at Nationals Park in 2017.

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers: vs. MIA, at SF

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. This is shaping up to be a dream week against the lowly Marlins and Giants, so look for Maeda to provide tremendous value.

Chad Bettis, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, at MIA

Bettis has a 1.44 ERA through four starts, but his 4.32 FIP suggests he has not pitched nearly that well. He’s been helped by opponents posting a .217 BABIP, leading to a 1.08 WHIP that is well below his career WHIP of 1.45. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher either with just a 5.4 K/9 this season. All that being said, he gets two favorable matchups this week against the Padres and Marlins. He faced the Padres in his first start of the season as well, allowing two runs and recording four strikeouts in five innings. Both teams are in the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored, so Bettis is a viable streaming option this week who is still available in 56% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees: vs. MIN, at LAA

Don’t let Sabathia’s 2.70 ERA this season fool you, he’s not that type of pitcher anymore. His FIP through three starts sits at 6.01 and he has already given up three home runs in just 13.1 innings. He doesn’t pitch deep into games anymore and isn’t a strikeout pitcher with only a 7.3 K/9 last year. Both the Twins and the Angels have right-handed power bats that could prove troublesome for Sabathia, so it might be a good idea to stay away from starting him this week.

Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins: at NYY, vs. CIN

Odorizzi is another starter who has a deceivingly low ERA in the early going at 3.38 despite his 5.36 FIP. He had control issues last year with a 3.8 BB/9 and has carried those problems into 2018 with a 4.6 BB/9 through four starts. Home runs have been a problem for him as well, allowing 1.9 HR/9 last year. That’s not a recipe for success in his first start on the road against the powerful Yankees lineup. Facing the Reds in his second start will be a much easier task, but that first start against the Yankees could really put you in a hole right out of the gate.

Bryan Mitchell, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. NYM

Talk about two rough matchups for Mitchell. He has to face the Rockies in Coors Field first, then he has to face a Mets offense that has the eighth-highest OBP (.333) in baseball. Mitchell walks way too many batters, recording 7.8 BB/9 through his first four starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff either with just a 5.4 K/9 for his career. If you are looking for a low owned player to stream this week, look elsewhere.

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

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Although this is the second week for most fantasy baseball leagues, it’s the first full week of games for the 2018 season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at LAA, vs. KC

The big names in the Indians starting rotation are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, but Clevinger proved to be an important part of their rotation in 2017. He finished the year 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9. Walks were an issue at 4.4 per nine innings, but he held opponents to just a .211 batting average. Getting two starts out of a pitcher with his strikeout upside can give you a significant edge in many leagues. His second start of the week against the Royals is especially favorable based on the losses they suffered to their lineup this winter.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: at CIN, at MIL

I was very high on Chatwood heading into this season and he gives those who drafted him a two-start week early in the season. Chatwood did not pitch well in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies last year, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was much better on the road, finishing with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. He’ll still have a potent lineup behind him in Chicago, which could have him in line for the best season of his career.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. MIN, vs. CIN

Taillon’s numbers from 2017 aren’t impressive as he finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. However, his FIP was 3.48, so he could be in line for improved numbers this season. Opponents also had a .359 BABIP against him last year, which should be in line for some regression towards the norm this season. Taillon only allowed 0.7 HR/9, which is important because he didn’t have overpowering stuff with an 8.4 K/9. Playing the Twins at home will help Taillon as he gets to avoid the DH.

Charlie Morton, Houston Astros: vs. BAL, vs. SD

Morton had one of the best seasons of his career in 2017 finishing with a career-high 14 wins to go along with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 10 K/9. He had a 3.46 FIP, opponents posted a .297 BABIP against him, and he only allowed 0.9 HR/9, so his numbers stand up past just the initial inspection. The Orioles really struggled offensively in their first series of the season, scoring a combined five runs in three games against the Twins. The Padres brought in Eric Hosmer during the winter, but their lineup still isn’t very imposing. Expect significant production for Morton in Week 2.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: vs. WAS, at COL:

The Braves have two starters who will each get two starts this week, but they have very unfavorable matchups. First, they face the Nationals at home, who still have a very deep lineup despite the absence of Daniel Murphy (knee). Teheran really struggled at home last season, posting a 5.68 ERA compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. After Newcomb and Teheran get through that, they then have to travel to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Both pitchers will provide value over the course of the long season, but this might be the week to keep them anchored to your bench.

Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: at HOU, at NYY

Tillman was horrid for the Orioles last season, posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. He’s bound to improve on those numbers this year, but his career 4.43 ERA and 4.66 FIP leave a lot to be desired. Unless you are in a very deep AL-only league, you shouldn’t be starting him regardless of opponent or number of starts he has in a given week. Bundy, on the other hand, is considered the future of the Orioles rotation at just 25 years old. He had a respectable 2017 campaign, finishing with a 4.24 ERA and 8.1 K/9. He did a great job keeping runner off base with a 1.20 WHIP, but his 1.4 HR/9 is an area of concern. He’ll face two of the more powerful lineups in all of baseball in Week 2, so it might be best to avoid him for your lineup.

Bryan Mitchell and Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, at HOU

The Padres made some improvements to their lineup, but their starting rotation still has a long ways to go before they can become a playoff-caliber team. Ross rejoins the Padres after injuries limited him to just 54.1 innings in the last two seasons combined. His brief stint with the Rangers did not go well last season, finishing with a 7.71 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Mitchell was brought over in a trade with the Yankees after bouncing between their bullpen and starting rotation. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, posting just a 5.9 K/9 during his career in the majors. He could be someone to consider streaming against favorable opponents, but that’s certainly not the case this week facing the Rockies and Astros. Don’t trust either Padres starter to help you win your league this week.

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