Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks – Stacks & Pitchers for Fanduel and Draftkings 7/6/16
It’s an interesting smaller slate in tonight’s MLB. On the one hand we have a clear pitching option who’ll likely be the chalk across the board. But after that it gets a little murkier. The starting pitcher two slot on DK is especially tricky as you’ll need to decide whether to pay up for an arm with a slightly worse pts/$ multiplier or risk it on a cheaper option. I don’t envy the decision either way.
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On the offensive side of things it’s a little clearer with one team projected for many more runs than the next closest squad. Let’s take a look at how things shake out.
Johnny Cueto FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent – COL (De La Rosa) Park – @SF
FD – 40.79 DK – 26.89
Johnny Cueto is in a great spot on Wednesday facing the Rockies who, going into Tuesday night, had lost six straight and seven of their last 10 games and sit with a 19-25 road record on the season. They are nowhere near as scary away from Coors as they rank 25th in wOBA on road. Even their numbers against righties this season, non-park adjusted, don’t totally scare you considering what Coors does to inflate stats. Cueto has had two bad starts in a row allowing 10 earned runs but did get the win vs. the Diamondbacks while striking out nine batters in seven innings pitched. He pitches in a terrific environment and will have a great shot to pick up his 13th win of the season. He’s the clear chalk play tonight and it’s not really close.
Marcus Stroman FD 7100 DK 6400
Opponent – KC (Kennedy) Park – @TOR
FD – 31.59 DK – 20.88
Pay up or save on DK? With the big discount I will side with Stroman today against a Royals team ranked 20th in wOBA(.310) vs. right handed pitching who’ve struggled away from Kauffman Stadium with a 16-29 record on the road. Stroman has experienced an up and down season, which is to be expected of a pitcher who relies less on strikeouts and more on his command and control. He doesn’t have a pretty strikeout rate (6.42 K/9) but is producing a 59% ground ball rate. There are some positive signs for Stroman who is coming off an excellent start vs. the red hot Indians as he only gave up one earned run on five hits in 6.2 innings pitched with six punchouts and only one walk. I would even go as far as trusting him in DK cash games paired with on of the top options.
Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez (Rangers)
Park – Fenway Park
For me, the Red Sox are the clear stack target on this evening slate. They open at about six expected runs, somewhere around 15% more than the next highest team. They’ll face a lefty in Martin Perez who walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out (4.43 k/9, 3.82 k/9) and sports an atrocious 4.91 xFIP. Don’t let that 3.39 ERA fool you. Dude isn’t good. The Red Sox will run three righties down the top of the order in Mookie Betts, Dustin, Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts. All three handle lefties better for their careers. Even David Ortiz in the reverse platoon is in play. I’m all over Red Sox in cash games and am even more encouraged because they’ve fallen somewhat out of public favor in the short term.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jeff Locke (Pirates)
Park – Busch Stadium
The Cardinals caught my eye when first looking at this slate. They face off against Jeff Locke who, in my opinion, has been lucky to have recorded eight wins to this point. He is working with an absolutely awful 4.66 K/9 rate while walking close to three batters per nine innings. His ERA sits at 5.13 and the xFIP of 5.01 does not suggest he is any better. Digging even deeper on Locke’s numbers you will see his Home/Road splits are pretty amazing. At home he has been serviceable with a 2.96 ERA and has held opponents to under a .300 wOBA. When the Pirates head out on the road it has been a different story all together as Locke has a 7.16 ERA and has allowed opponents a .373 wOBA. It is best to target the right handed bats(Piscotty, Holliday, Diaz, Molina) for the Cards as Locke is allowing 32.8% hard contact vs. right handed hitters vs. a 21% hard contact rate vs. lefties.