MLB Lineup Optimizer Stacks for 04/21/17
Chris Durell
DFS MLB Optimizer Stacks – Friday, April 21st
Another work week is coming to an end but for us DFS players, the grind never stops. We have an all evening main slate of 15 games including a start of a three-game series at Coors Field. You know what that means. Trying to fit at least one or two players from those two teams into your cash lineups and then trying to decide if you are stacking or fading the game in tournaments. Let’s jump right in and take a look at my favorite GPP pitchers and stacks for tonight’s slate.
Starting Pitchers
Corey Kluber
Opponent – @ CWS
Park – Guaranteed Rate Field
Vegas Favorite (CLE -145)
Vegas Total (7.5)
Let me start off by saying this pick is not for the cash game folks out there. We all know the upside he possesses but has not had the start he was hoping for. He is coming off a win but gave up six earned runs and twice this season has given up five or more in a start. That alone should keep some people off him tonight. If you are willing to take a risk, let me tell you why he is a great play. Looking deep at his numbers from this season and comparing them to the pitcher we have known for four plus years, there are some numbers that jump off the page. First of all, he is only generating 30% ground balls and is sitting at just over 44% for his career. Next up is the hard contact rate of 50% this season (that is bad!) which is almost double his career average of 27%. The next thing I wanted to check was his BABIP which was right on par with his career average (not getting unlucky) and then I turned his pitch velocity. Not even a half mph drop in fastball velocity tells me he is just not getting the ball down in the zone and by leaving it over the plate, is getting rocked at the moment. Good news is that the K upside is still there and the White Sox rank 28th in wRC+ (67) vs. right-handed pitching.
Bartolo Colon
Opponent – @ PHI
Park – Citizens Bank Park
Vegas (ATL +105)
Vegas Total (8)
As you can probably already tell by the first couple days of my picks this season I am mainly a GPP player. I love targeting one of the projected lower owned big names on a given night and pairing him with a value target that has risk but upside PTS/$ as well. Enter 43-year-old Bartolo Colon who continues to amaze the world that he is still pitching in the majors and quite effectively I might add. He is coming off his fourth straight 14+ win season and through three starts in 2017, has put together two impressive starts and one dud. He gave up a solo home run and that is all to both the Mets and Padres while striking out six each time and walking just one. He struggled in his second start vs. the Marlins and couldn’t get the ball down and ended up only going four innings and giving up six earned runs. Tonight he faces a Phillies team who he has held to under a .200 average (current roster) while attacking them for a 24% K rate. Once again, he is not a safe option for cash but has been low owned all season and has 25-30 points upside on DraftKings and 40-50 point upside on FanDuel.
Stacks
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
Park – Miller Park (Neutral)
Vegas (-105)
Vegas Total (8.5)
When it comes to stacks tonight, the popular choice is going to be one of the two teams playing in Coors. I am just not sold on the upside that you achieve by investing in that game. The Rockies have been the worst team in the majors when looking at wRC+ (56) at home and sit third to worst with a .207 batting average at Coors Field. That doesn’t even make sense but until they show some life, I will avoid the high ownership trap, especially against Johnny Cueto.
I will turn to the Brewers tonight who are coming off a beatdown of one of last night’s top DFS pitchers, Carlos Martinez. While continuing to strike out a ton, they did manage two long balls and five earned runs against Martinez and ended up winning 7-5. Those seven runs, they need lead the majors with 83 runs on the season on sit just a half game out of first in the National League Central Division. Tonight they get to face (and I hate to say it) gas can Adam Wainwright. While he showed signs of the old Adam Wainwright last season going 13-9 he still posted a poor 4.62 ERA and it has gotten worse in 2017. Through three starts, he has gone 0-3 while giving up 11 earned runs (7.74 ERA), striking out just 13 and walking six batters. To make matters worse (or better for us stacking Brewers), he is giving up a 38% hard-contact rate and is giving up more fly balls than ever before in his career. Jonathan Villar has been struggling as of late so if you want to avoid him, target the two through five hitters and center your stack around Ran Braun who has had the most success vs. Wainwright in his career. And don’t forget about Eric Thames who has made a triumphant return to the Majors after five years and some time in the Korean league. He is hitting .414 coming into tonight with eight home runs and 14 RBI. He is under $4K on both sites. Ride the hot streak and value price.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros (Mike Fiers)
Park – Tropicana Field (Neutral)
Vegas (TB -105)
Vegas Total (8)
Seeing as the #1 thing we are looking for is runs from our offense, I am going to turn the team ranked right behind the Brewers in runs scored this season. They have been pretty balanced when looking at the splits as they sit 7th in wRC+(119) vs. left-handed pitching and 12th(106) vs. right-handed pitching. The reason they sit ahead of a few other teams (Rangers, D-Backs, Giants) is they have been excellent at home with a 7-2 record and sit 6th in wRC+ (127). Tonight they get a matchup vs. the Astros in a potentially high-scoring game where Mike Fiers will take the mound. Long story short, he walks way too many batters (3.6 BB/9) and has been punished giving up three home runs in two starts with a 5.40 ERA. If the Rays should get to him early, they will get to face a bullpen who might be a bit lucky ranking in the middle of the pack in ERA (3.66) as they have given up a league-high 37 walks. Start your stack at the top of the lineup with Corey Dickerson who got the night off on Thursday and has a hit in 12 of his first 13 starts with seven multi-hit games. Kevin Kiermaier has been hitting primarily out of the two-hole and comes in red hot with hits in five straight including four multi-hit games. Evan Longoria hasn’t fully heated up yet with a .234 average but has a ton of upside in the middle of the lineup. Hitting cleanup with a mid $3K price tag on both sites is Brad Miller. He comes into tonight with hit in five straight and six of his last seven games with two doubles, two triples and a home run.