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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The weather continues to wreak havoc on baseball, but the best we can do is plan for the scheduled week ahead. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. SF, vs. SD

Corbin is off to a stellar start in 2018, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 through three starts. His FIP is even better at 1.97 and it’s not like he’s been getting lucky as opponents have a .306 BABIP so far. His career K/9 is just 8.0 though, so don’t expect him to be able to keep up this insane strikeout rate. The good news this week is he gets two starts at home, so no need to worry about any weather issues at Chase Field. He also gets two excellent matchups, especially his first start against the Giants, who have scored the third-fewest runs (46) in baseball so far.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: vs. MIA, vs. TOR

The Red Sox touched up Severino for five runs in his last start, but he still recorded six strikeouts in that game and has a 10.0 K/9 through three starts. He emerged as one of the elite pitchers in baseball in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. He allowed just 2.4 BB/9 and held opponents to a 29.4% hard-hit rate. As long as the weather holds up, Monday brings a start against the lowly Marlins, who are batting just .227 with eight home runs as a team. His second start comes against a Blue Jays lineup with much more power, but he held them to one hit while recording seven strikeouts on Opening Day.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: at SEA, at CWS

Don’t read too much into McCullers’ 7.71 ERA, a lot of that was because he allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings in his last start against the Twins. Opponents also have an insanely high .485 BABIP against him. His FIP sits at 3.77 and he’s been an excellent source for strikeouts with a 14.8 K/9. He posted a K/9 of at least 10 in both of the last two seasons. He also does a great job keeping hitters in the park with a career 0.7 HR/9. If you were thinking about benching him based on his last blowup, don’t be. He should rebound in a big way with this two-start week.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: vs. BAL, vs. KC

Liriano made the rebuilding Tigers rotation out of spring training and has a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through two starts. With a 4.16 FIP and paltry 5.0 K/9 though, he screams regression candidate. While it’s coming at some point, you might be able to squeeze two more good starts out of him this week. First, he’ll face the Orioles, who have the most strikeouts (177) and second-lowest team batting average (.216) in baseball. Then he’ll take on a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs (39) in baseball. Most of their better hitters are left-handed as well, which is good news for Liriano since he held lefties to a .286 wOBA in 2017. Still available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues, Liriano is a viable streaming option for Week 4.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

David Price, Boston Red Sox: at LAA, at OAK

Price left his last start against the Yankees after feeling “a sensation” in his left hand. He said he hasn’t experienced any issues since, but it is a bit concerning considering he dealt with an elbow issue last year. When healthy, Price is really tough on lefties, holding them to a .228 wOBA in 2017. Righties game him more trouble though, posting a .301 wOBA. The Angels and Athletics both have a lot of good right-handed hitters who perform well against lefties, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Price struggles this week.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: vs. STL, at COL

Chatwood is not off to a good start with his new team, posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through two starts. Opponents do have a .364 BABIP though while posting just a 17.6% hard-hit rate, so expect his numbers to improve as the season moves on. I was very high on him heading into the season and still am, but not in Week 4. The Cardinals are in the top-10 in the league in runs scored and his second start of the week brings his old nemesis Coors Field. He was awful pitching there as a member of the Rockies last year, recording a 6.01 ERA in 70.1 innings. Put him on your bench this week.

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. WAS, at ATL

The Mets are on cloud nine right now after a 12-2 start. Their pitching has been a big reason for their success with a league-best 2.58 team ERA. Wheeler’s first start of the season couldn’t have gone much better, allowing one run on two hits to go along with seven strikeouts in seven innings. However, it came against the Marlins. He’ll face two much tougher lineups this week, especially a Braves team that has scored the fourth-most runs (82) and is hitting for the fourth-highest average (.270) in baseball. Wheeler might provide value at times this season, but buyer beware for Week 4.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Only two of the 15 games in the majors on Friday have an early start time, leaving you with plenty of options to choose from in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Gerrit Cole vs. Texas Rangers
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $10,000
DraftKings = $12,100

The Astros brought in Cole during the offseason after he had an off year with the Pirates, posting a career-high 4.26 ERA. One of the biggest reasons for his jump in ERA is that he allowed 1.4 HR/9, a significant jump over his previous career worse of 0.7 HR/9. Things couldn’t have gone much better for him in his first two starts this season, allowing one run while recording 22 strikeouts in 14 innings. He’s never had a K/9 above 9.0 previously in his career, so it’s unlikely he will be able to keep up at this pace. He does get a favorable matchup Friday against a Rangers team that is missing both Elvis Andrus (elbow) and Rougned Odor (hamstring) from their lineup. Cole is the most expensive pitcher of the night, but he also has one of the highest upsides.

Vince Velasquez vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $7,900

Velasquez has a lot of potential, but he has struggled with consistency in his career. He has a hard time pitching deep into games, averaging less than five innings per start in 2017. Hitters didn’t have a hard time squaring him up either with Velasquez posting a 38.1% hard hit percentage and a 20.8% HR/FB ratio. He was hit hard in his first start of the season against the Braves, but he settled down to allow one run in six innings in his second outing against the Marlins. He’ll face a similarly weak lineup in the Rays on Friday, who are tied for the third-fewest runs scored (39) in baseball. Velasquez also has strikeout upside, making him someone worth considering in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Buster Posey vs. Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,700

Posey has been a model of consistency, batting at least .311 in three of the last four seasons. His home runs have been on the decline, but he did hit a career-high 34 doubles in 2017. He’s off to another great start this season, batting .375 with two home runs and eight RBI. He already has five multi-hit games as well. Friday brings a matchup against the struggling Ross, making Posey a viable option for your entry.

Mitch Moreland vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $3,300

Red Sox first baseman Hanley Ramirez was hit on the wrist and had to leave Thursday’s game against the Yankees. Initial results revealed it’s only a contusion, but it might be too much to expect him to play Friday. If he can’t play, Moreland should get the start at first base. Tillman allowed a staggering .429 wOBA to lefties last year, making Moreland a cheap option who could provide value.

Others to consider: Carlos Santana (first base) and Josh Bell (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Cesar Hernandez vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,400

Hernandez has been swinging a hot bat at the start of the season, recording at least one hit in all but one game that he has played. He already has 10 walks in 11 games as well, resulting in an excellent 440 OBP. The switch-hitting Hernandez hit right-handers well last season, posting a .345 wOBA against them. Faria has a 14.29 ERA and 3.00 WHIP through two starts, so Hernandez could be in line for a big performance.

Howie Kendrick vs. Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,600

Kendrick might not stand out in a loaded Nationals lineup that includes Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, but he’s been excellent with a .349 batting average this season. A career .291 hitter, Kendrick’s right-handed bat is a key part of their lineup. He dominated lefties with a .385 wOBA in 2017 and Freeland also struggled to get righties out, allowing a .345 wOBA to them last year. Kendrick has a nice price on both sites, making him an excellent option to consider for your entry.

Others to consider: Joe Panik and Brock Holt

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Rafael Devers vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,100

Devers got off to a great start this season but has cooled off to go 0-for-12 in his last three games. He’ll get an excellent opportunity to right the ship against Tillman with his struggles against left-handed hitters already detailed above. Tillman doesn’t have an overpowering pitch arsenal either, recording just three total strikeouts in his first two starts.

Evan Longoria vs. Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $2,900

After spending his entire career with the Rays, Longoria was dealt to the Giants over the winter, a team that badly needed a boost offensively. Longoria hasn’t been able to deliver for them so far, batting just .163. Longoria has been unlucky though, posting a .207 BABIP this season compared to his career mark of .298. He’s been hitting the ball well with a 36.7% hard hit percentage, so he’s unlikely to keep hitting this poorly for much longer. At this cheap price, he might be worth the risk against Ross.

Others to consider: Anthony Rendon and Luis Valbuena

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Trea Turner vs. Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,500

With Adam Eaton (ankle) on the DL, Turner has moved back to the leadoff spot for the Nationals. He was a steals machine in that role last season, swiping 46 bases in only 90 games. Turner uncharacteristically struggled against lefties last year with a .281 wOBA, but he has shown improvement this season with a .375 wOBA against them. This could be just the matchup Turner needs to break out of his slump.

Scott Kingery vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,800

Kingery has shown he can hit for power in his first 10 games of the season, slugging two home runs to go along with three doubles. The Phillies will get to use the DH playing in Tampa Bay on Friday, which will help free up some of the logjams they have in the outfield and infield. Kingery was a consistent hitter in the minors with a career .284 average and is a viable option against the struggling Faria.

Others to consider: Carlos Correa and Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/13/18

Mookie Betts vs. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $5,100

Betts hit only .264 in 2017, but a lot of that was due to his abnormally low .268 BABIP. He’s rebounded in a big way so far, batting .370 with a .455 OBP this season. He has been crushing the ball with a 50% hard-hit rate. Betts has historically been a better hitter at home, posting a career .312 average ar Fenway park compared to .276 on the road. Don’t hesitate to pay up for him against Tillman on Friday.

Michael Conforto vs. Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,800

After a brief stint on the DL to start the season, Conforto is healthy now and batting .333 in his first six games. He crushed right-handed pitching in 2017 posting a 164 wRC+, which ranked sixth-highest in the majors behind players including Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Joey Votto. That could spell trouble for the right-handed Davies on Friday.

Kole Calhoun vs. Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,100

The Angels lineup has a lot of excellent right-handed hitters in Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols, but Calhoun provides an important compliment from the left side. Calhoun had just an 89 wRC+ against lefties last year but posted a 102 wRC+ against righties. His upside isn’t off the charts, but he is still a viable option Friday if you’re looking for a cheap outfielder to help fill out your lineup.

Others to consider: Shoei Ohtani and Andrew Benintendi

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There aren’t many elite starting pitchers taking the mound Thursday, so this could be a night where offense is plentiful in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Robbie Ray vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Busch Stadium
FanDuel = $9,600
DraftKings = $11,700

The night slate of games is really lacking star power in terms of starting pitchers, especially if you play on DraftKings where the Yankees and Rays game is not included. Ray stands out as the best starting pitcher available, even though he gave up six earned runs in five innings in his first start of the season against the Rockies. He still had eight strikeouts in that game and has excellent strikeout upside after posting a K/9 of at least 11.3 in both of the last two seasons. Ray was also very good on the road last season, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.99 WHIP away from Chase Field. He’s certainly not cheap, but with unappealing options on the night slate, it might be wise to pay up to get him into your entry.

James Paxton vs. Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $9,600

Paxton was limited to just 136 innings last year due to injury, but he was excellent when healthy, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. His FIP was even better at 2.61 and he only allowed 0.6 HR/9, leaving him with big expectations heading into 2018. His first start of the season did not go as planned, allowing six earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Indians. He walked four batters in that game, which is out of character since he had a BB/9 of 2.4 or lower in both of the last two seasons. He has strikeout upside, making him someone to consider Thursday.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Joey Gallo vs. Daniel Mengden, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,300

Gallo has been about what you would have expected from him heading into the season, batting .214 with 10 strikeouts in seven games so far. He’s provided power with two home runs and a double and should continue to be a good source of homers this season. He’ll face a righty in Mengden on Thursday and Gallo crushed righties last year, posting a .364 wOBA and hitting 34 of his 41 home runs against them. This could be an excellent matchup to take advantage of Thursday.

Ian Desmond vs. Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,800

The Rockies will face the lefty Lucchesi on Thursday who struggled in his first start of the season, allowing three earned runs in 4.2 innings to the Brewers. He didn’t issue a walk, but he only struck out one batter. The Rockies have some hitters who have very favorable splits against left-handed pitching, including Desmond, who has a career .280 batting average against them. This would be an even better matchup for Desmond if this game was being played in Coors Field, but he can still provide value for your entry.

Others to consider: Gary Sanchez (catcher) and Jose Martinez (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Robinson Cano vs. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $5,200

Cano is off to a great start this season, batting .500 with a hit in every game. He has yet to hit a home run, but he does have three doubles and six runs scored. He’ll face the righty in Gibson on Thursday, which is great news for Cano considering he posted a 138 wRC+ against right-handers last year. He also has good numbers against Gibson, batting .296 in 29 plate appearances in his career.

Yoan Moncada vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,200

Moncada does have a hit in four of his first five games this season, but he doesn’t have a multi-hit game yet and already has seven strikeouts. He’s been a much better hitter batting from the left side during his brief career, posting a .348 wOBA in 2017 compared to just .283 from the right side. Zimmermann struggled against lefties in 2017, allowing a .376 wOBA. Moncada could be in line for his best game of the young season Thursday.

Others to consider: D.J. LeMahieu and Chris Owings

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $5,400

Arenado has yet to have a big breakout game this season as he has only one home run, but he has recorded at least one RBI in three straight games. Like Desmond, Arenado gets the benefit of facing another left-hander on Thursday. Arenado had a staggering 220 wRC+ against lefties last year, which was third-best in baseball.

Matt Chapman vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,700

Chapman played in just 82 games with the Athletics in 2017 but has established himself as their third baseman of the future. He batted only .234, but he showed plenty of power with 14 home runs and 23 doubles. He’s off to a hot start this season, batting .385 with two home runs and a .448 OBP. Perez is tough against lefties but allowed a wOBA of at least .341 to righties in both of the last two seasons.

Others to consider: Rafael Devers and Brandon Drury

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Didi Gregorius vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = NA

Gregorius is sometimes forgotten in a lineup that includes Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez, but he is a very important part of the Yankees success. He’s moved into the cleanup spot against right-handed pitchers, a role he excelled in for the Yankees last season by driving in 40 runs in 42 games out of that spot. He’ll face Cashner on Thursday, who doesn’t have overpowering stuff with just a 7.0 K/9 for his career.

Xander Boegarts vs. Yonny Chirinos, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $5,000

Boegarts batted only .273 last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries and an abnormally low .281 BABIP in the second half of the season. He’s off to a hot start this year, batting .357 with a home run and five doubles. Chirinos is the “starter” for the Rays on Thursday, but this is one of their planned bullpen days and he might not pitch that deep into the game. Their bullpen isn’t lights-out to begin with, which could lead to a big game for the Red Sox offense.

Others to consider: Jean Segura and Addison Russell

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/5/18

Giancarlo Stanton vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = NA

After receiving boos because he struck out five times in the Yankees home opener, Stanton mashed a home run that brought the stadium to their feet Wednesday. He only has five hits so far this season, but three of them have been home runs. With Cashner not having overpowering stuff at this point in his career, don’t be surprised if Stanton gets a hold of one again Thursday.

Nicholas Castellanos vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium- Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,900

Castellanos has yet to leave the park this season, but he does already have three multi-hit games. He set career-highs with 26 home runs and 101 RBI last year, so expect him to straighten things out in the power department soon. Thursday brings an excellent opportunity to do so against Shields who allowed 2.1 HR/9 last year and isn’t much more than a journeyman starter at this stage of his career.

Hunter Renfroe vs. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,000

The Padres had a crowded outfield heading into this season, but some playing time has now opened up with Wil Myers (arm) on the DL. Renfroe is going to get his chance to shine and he just might do that Thursday against the lefty Anderson as Renfroe had a .439 wOBA against lefties in 2017.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

As long as the weather cooperates, there are plenty of MLB games on the schedule today with 28 teams in action. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Chris Sale vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $11,400
DraftKings = $12,900

Sale picked up where he left off last year with his first start of 2018, pitching six shutout innings and recording nine strikeouts against the Rays. Sale is one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. The Marlins tore down their team over the winter and while they have had a couple of nice offensive showings already this season, facing Sale is a whole different story. Don’t hesitate to pay up to get Sale into your lineup.

Chase Anderson vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $10,100

Anderson had a breakout campaign for the Brewers last year, posting a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. His FIP was 3.58 and opponents did have just a .268 BABIP, so he could be in line for some regression this season, but likely not one that significant. He had control issues by allowing three walks in his first start of the season against the Padres, but by allowing just one hit and striking out eight batters, he did not allow an earned run. He’ll get a tougher opponent in the Cardinals on Tuesday, but he can still provide value at this reasonable price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Freddie Freeman vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Freeman continues to be an on-base machine for the Braves as he already has eight walks in four games this season. He’s done damage as well, recording a home run and five RBI so far. He’ll face a right-hander in Cole on Tuesday, which is good news considering Freeman dominated righties last year with a .422 wOBA. Cole also allowed a .414 wOBA to lefties last year, so this could be the perfect storm for Freeman.

Willson Contreras vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Contreras is off to a slow start this year, hitting 4-for-21 (.190) with just one RBI. Tuesday brings a favorable matchup though against Reed, who had a 5.09 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 17.2 innings for the Reds last year. He did make 10 starts for the Reds in 2016, but he was even worse with a 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Contreras had a .386 wOBA against lefties last year, so it might be worth taking a chance that Tuesday is his first breakout game of the season.

Others to consider: Joey Gallo (first base) and Brian McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Ozzie Albies vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,600

Albies is not off to a great start this season either, recording only two hits in his first four games. He does have a home run, two RBI and three runs scored, helping to salvage some of his lines. The Nationals have a great starting rotation, but he’ll get to face one of their weaker links in Cole on Tuesday. Cole had a 3.81 ERA last year, but his 5.20 FIP suggests that should have been much higher. He also has problems keeping runners off base with a career 1.45 WHIP.

Javier Baez vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,000

Baez only has two hits through the first five games of the season and has struck out five times while drawing just one walk. He struck out 144 times in 145 games last year and had just a .317 OBP, so his starts in those departments aren’t all that surprising. He batted .315 with nine home runs against lefties last year though, making him possibly worth the risk for your lineup Tuesday at this price.

Others to consider: Whit Merrifield and Rougned Odor

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Anthony Rendon vs. Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,300

The Nationals have a potent lineup and Rendon gets the benefit of hitting between Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper on most nights. Teheran will have a tough task ahead of him, especially considering he had a 5.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home last season. He wasn’t any better in his first start at home in 2018 against the Phillies, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings on Opening Day. The Nationals could put up a crooked number Tuesday with Rendon right in the middle of the action.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Jakob Junis (Kansas City Royals)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = NA

The Tigers are rebuilding and Candelario is considered one of the important parts of their future. He played well in 27 games with the Tigers last year, hitting .330 with a .406 OBP. While he likely can’t keep that up in 2018, he did post a .270 average and .350 OBP during his career in the minors. He’ll bat second and from the left side of the plate against Junis on Tuesday, who allowed lefties to bat .274 against him in 2017 compared to righties batting just .246. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Xander Bogaerts vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,400

Bogaerts is red hot to start the season, recording at least two hits in four of his first five games. He’s hit for power as well with one home run and five doubles. He’ll face the default ace for the Marlins in Urena on Tuesday, who allowed five runs in four innings against the Cubs on Opening Day. Urena has a career FIP of 5.07, so Bogaerts could play a big role in a potential offensive explosion for the Red Sox in this game.

Alcides Escobar vs. Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,200
DraftKings = NA

Escobar recorded his first hits of the season Monday against the Tigers, going 2-for-3 with a double, triple and a run scored. He only hits eighth in the Royals lineup, which hurts his value in DFS based on the limited amount of at-bats he gets batting that low in the order. However, he gets a favorable matchup against Boyd, who allowed a .357 wOBA against righties last year compared to just .313 against lefties. Escobar is very cheap and could allow you to add a couple of big sluggers to your entry with the savings he will provide. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Elvis Andrus

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Bryce Harper vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,300

Harper is off to a torrid start this season, batting .417 with a .550 OBP, three home runs and seven RBI. Talent has never been the question with Harper as he usually produces when he’s healthy.  He has also owned Teheran during his career, batting .459 with seven home runs and 17 RBI in 45 career plate appearances against him. Harper is expensive, but he also has tremendous upside Tuesday.

Adam Eaton vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,700

Speaking of hot starts, Eaton is 8-for-13 with two home runs, five RBI and seven runs scored through just three games. He’s hitting leadoff for one of the best lineups in baseball, so he is going to have plenty of opportunities to provide value. The Nationals may be cautious with him to start the season after he was limited to just 23 games last year, but he didn’t play Monday, so expect him to be back in the lineup and providing value Tuesday.

Mitch Haniger vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,400

Haniger completes today’s trio of outfielders who have started off the season well as he is 5-for-8 with two home runs and a double so far this season. He’ll face a lefty in Blach who struggled to get out righties last year, allowing a .350 wOBA to them compared to just .261 against lefties. If you want to pay up to get Harper in your lineup, Haniger is a viable budget-friendly option to consider pairing him with.

Others to consider: Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gomez

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

The long wait is finally over. Opening Day has arrived! There’s nothing quite like the excitement of the first day of the baseball season. Let’s kick this season off in style with a successful daily fantasy baseball lineup. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Seasonal Only

Open day special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout.

 

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $11,200
DraftKings = $12,200

Sale (hip) started off his Red Sox career in style, posting a 17-8 record and finishing second in the voting for the Cy Young Award last year. He dominated the league, recording a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a career-high 12.9 K/9. His ERA was no fluke either as his FIP was a sparkling 2.45. Sale was hit by a comebacker in his final start this spring, but he should be fine for Opening Day. He gets a great matchup against a rebuilding Rays squad that lost Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson over the winter. Their lineup is lacking power as a result, setting up Sale to have a strong start to the 2018 campaign.

Garrett Richards vs. Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,800

Richards showed promise in his first two full seasons as a starting pitcher in 2015 and 2016, going a combined 28-16 in 376 innings. His ERA was 3.65 or lower in both seasons and he had 340 total strikeouts. However, injuries have taken a toll on him the last two seasons, resulting in him throwing only 62.1 innings combined. He pitched well when he was on the mound, allowing only 16 total earned runs during that stretch. He’s healthy now and had a strong spring, recording a 2.84 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Thursday’s opponent in the Athletics has a lot of power, but they also have several players who strike out a lot. If you don’t want to pay up for Sale, Richards could provide value at a much more budget-friendly price.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – Dodger Stadium

The Giants were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation before the season even started, losing both Madison Bumgarner (hand) and Jeff Samardzija (pectoral). Because the injury to Bumgarner happened so late in spring training, the Giants did not have enough time to adjust their rotation. That left Blach lined up to start the opener. He did not have a strong season in 2017, finishing 8-12 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He struggled to get right-handed batters out as they hit .295 against him last year compared to lefties batting only .250. Most teams are throwing out their best starter in the first game of the season, which could lead to some low-scoring games. Take advantage of Blach taking the mound by stacking Dodgers hitters.

Players to consider stacking: Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp

Chicago Cubs vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The Marlins traded away the vast majority of their good players and are lined up to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, Their starting rotation is particularly bad, likely leaving them as a good team to stack against most nights. At first glance, Urena’s numbers from 2017 don’t look bad. He finished 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his ERA could have been much worse as his FIP was 5.20. He also only struck out six batters per nine innings. Not having overpowering stuff immediately puts him behind the eight ball pitching against the potent Cubs lineup. On a day full of star pitchers, Urena is another defacto ace you can take advantage of.

Players to consider stacking: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,400

It’s not hard to find great numbers for Trout. Although he was limited to only 114 games last year due to injury, he still hit .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Trout has owned Athletics starting pitcher Kendall Graveman, hitting .370 with two home runs and four RBI against him in 30 career plate appearances.

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,000

This might not seem like an obvious advantage for Betts against a tough starting pitcher in Chris Archer on Thursday. Archer is a big-time strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of at least 10.4 in three straight seasons. However, Betts has excelled against him during his career, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 RBI and eight walks in 39 career plate appearances.

Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,300

Gattis is eligible at catcher, but he figures to see most of his time at designated hitter for the Astros this season. Injuries have limited him to only 212 games in the last two seasons combined, but he still managed to hit 44 home runs during that stretch. He gets to face Cole Hamels on Thursday, who he has hit .360 with three home runs against in 25 career plate appearances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Pujols is a shell of his former self, hitting just .241 last season. He still showed he can hit for power though, slugging 23 home runs and recording 101 RBI. He has hit even better against Graveman than Trout has during his career, batting a loft .433 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 33 plate appearances.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

One of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball is closers. The traditional closer role is also being reexamined by some teams who may not wait until the ninth inning to bring in their best reliever based on the situation. That could leave you chasing saves more than ever. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t dominate the position in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some closers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jansen has been a dominant force at the end of games, converting 168 of 182 save opportunities (92.3%) over the last four seasons. He had a WHIP of 0.86 or lower in five of the last six seasons and has seen his ERA decrease three straight seasons, finishing at a career low 1.32 in 2017. Strikeouts are his specialty with a career K/9 of 14.0. I could go on and on with juicy stats from Jansen, who also posted a career-low 0.9 BB/9 in 2017. He gets the benefit of playing for one of the best teams in baseball, which should leave him with plenty of save chances again this season. You’ll have to take him early in your draft if you want his services, but he is the clear top closer option.

Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

After posting an uncharacteristic 3.40 ERA in his first season with the Red Sox in 2016, Kimbrel returned to form last year. Not only did he drop his ERA down to 1.43, but his 0.68 WHIP was also the second-lowest mark of his career. In seven career seasons that he has logged at least 50 innings, Kimbrel has finished with an ERA of 1.61 or lower and a WHIP of 0.91 or lower four times. Like Jansen, he too has been a strikeout machine with a career 14.8 K/9. He hasn’t saved at least 40 games in a season since he was a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2014, but he is still one of the elite closers in fantasy baseball.

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

Chapman did not have his best year in 2017 and even was removed from the closer’s role for a brief stretch. His overall numbers don’t look great by his standards, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and just 22 saves. However, he still had a respectable WHIP of 1.13 and a 12.3 K/9. The main reason for the spike in his ERA was that he allowed two earned runs each in three-straight appearances in August. Outside of that, he allowed two runs or more in only two other games all season. His low save total can also be attributed to the fact that he missed over a month with a shoulder injury. He righted the ship towards the end of the season and also gave up only one run in eight innings during the playoffs. I expect him to have a bounce-back campaign on a strong Yankees team, leaving him to round out the top three closers in fantasy.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays

Colome made his first All-Star team in 2016, finishing with a 1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 37 saves. He managed to lead baseball with 47 saves in 2017 but took a significant step backward just about everywhere else. Not only did he finish with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but he suffered a huge dropoff in K/9 at only 7.8. His career K/9 is 8.0, so that was actually more of what we should be expecting from him, not his abnormally high strikeout rate from 2016. The Rays are in rebuilding mode for 2018 and have traded away several important players from their 2017 squad. Don’t be surprised if Colome is dealt at some point this season as well, possibly to a team that doesn’t have him close. There are a lot of risks involved with Colome, making it hard for me to justify his current ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) of 125.69.

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Neris posted a career-high 26 saves last season, which is significant considering how poorly the Phillies played. He finished with a 3.01 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but his 1.26 WHIP and 3.71 FIP are a bit concerning heading into 2018. The Phillies are an improved team this year, so Neris could have more save opportunities than he saw in 2017. The problem is his current ADP is 143.28, which is significantly higher than Brandon Morrow (179.20) and Kelvin Herrara (199.75), two players who can at least provide similar production in terms of ERA and saves. I’d rather take a chance on one of those two later on.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

Doolittle started out 2017 as a member of the Oakland Athletics and pitched 21.2 innings for them, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 13.1 K/9. He only had three saves with Oakland but was traded to the Nationals, who had major bullpen struggles in the first half of the season. Doolittle did a stellar job as their closer, converting 21 of his 22 save opportunities with the team. Although his K/9 dropped to 9.3 with Washingon, his ERA was just 2.40. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but he is going to get a lot of save chances on a good Nationals team if he can stay healthy. With a current ADP of 128.02, he is a bargain considering his upside.

Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants

Melancon established himself as a premier reliever during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting an ERA of 1.90 or lower in three of his four seasons with the team. He combined to log 98 saves in 2015 and 2016, spending the second half of 2016 with the Nationals. The Giants brought him in last winter to anchor their bullpen, but his season was a disaster. He was limited to only 30 innings due to injury and didn’t pitch well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Luck was not on his side as opponents had a .374 BABIP against him last year, significantly higher than his career mark of .281. He had surgery to fix his elbow in September and now that he’s healthy, he will assume the ninth inning duties once again. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 8.2 K/9, but he could get more save opportunities on an improved Giants squad. His current ADP is 175.64, making him someone to target if you plan to wait on saves.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.

Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays

Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

The Outfield position has a lot of high-end talent this year with five players at the position arguably ranked inside the top ten for fantasy baseball. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some outfielders who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Entering 2017, Trout had played in at least 157 games in four straight seasons. He averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 113 runs scored and 23 steals per season during that stretch. Not only that, but he batted at least .299 three times. He was limited to just 114 games last year due to injury, but he still batted .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Those are crazy counting stats in such a limited time frame. He’s only getting better with his pitch selection, lowering his strikeout percentage while also increasing his walk percentage in four straight seasons. He’s not just the best outfielder in fantasy baseball either as I rank him number one overall.

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon had a monster season in 2017, batting .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored, 14 steals and a .399 OBP. He led the majors in hits, runs scored, triples and total bases and was second in batting average only to Jose Altuve. To put his season into perspective, only four players had a higher slugging percentage last year than Blackmon. They were J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. He did have extreme home and road splits, batting .391 with 24 home runs at Coors Field compared to .276 with 13 homers on the road. It’s going to be tough for him to so many home runs again this year, but he did have 29 homers and 82 RBI in 2016. His ability to hit for power, a high average and steal bases makes him one of the most valuable options in fantasy baseball.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Betts established himself as an elite fantasy asset in 2016, hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals. His counting stats were again stellar in 2017, but his batting average dropped to just .264. He had never batted below .291 in a season in the majors, leaving his owners who paid a lofty price for him on draft day somewhat disappointed with his overall production. However, his strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. With a higher BABIP likely on tap for 2018, expect Betts to rebound with his batting average. The addition of Martinez also adds a power dimension that the Red Sox lineup was sorely lacking last year, which should help Betts as well. Get ready for a big season.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Of all the outfielders not named Mike Trout, Harper might have the highest upside. He showed his immense potential in 2015, batting .330 with 42 home runs, 99 RBI and 118 runs scored on his way to winning the National League MVP. The reason why Harper is fourth on this list though is due to injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career. He has only played at least 147 games twice in his career, one of which was that stellar 2015 campaign. He has also batted above .300 only twice in six seasons. It can be frustrating to own him, but you shouldn’t be disappointed if he ends up being your first round pick. If everything falls right, he could end up finishing in the top three overall in fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As a testament to how deep the outfield position is, a guy who had 59 home runs and 132 RBI last season if fifth on this list. Stanton was unlike many of the games elite home run hitters too, managing to hit .281 and record a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton as well, limiting him to 123 games or less in four of the last six years. He mashes when he’s on the field though. The 2015 season might be the perfect example as he hit 27 home runs in just 74 games. Not only does he move to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he’ll also be part of one of the most potent lineups in the league. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. That’s a big if though, which is why he’s fifth on this list.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

There is no question that Hamilton is one of the premier base stealers in the league, recording at least 56 steals in four straight seasons. The problem is, that’s about all he does well. For his career, he is only batting .248 with a paltry .298 OBP. He’s never scored more than 85 runs in a season and has 17 career home runs. While steals are hard to find, it’s important to remember that it’s only one category. He’ll drag you down just about everywhere else, making it very hard to justify his current ADP in the NFBC of 61.85.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

McCutchen will be playing for someone other than the Pirates for the first time in his career and will be a key part of what the Giants hope is a vastly improved lineup. McCutchen was once an elite fantasy option, hitting at least 20 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases each season from 2011 through 2013. His power numbers are still there, hitting at least 23 homers in four straight years. He’s not the threat that he once was on the basepaths though, stealing a total of 28 bases in the last three seasons. The problem is if he’s not going to steal bases and isn’t a .300 hitter anymore, the ability to hit 25 home runs isn’t nearly as valuable as it used to be. His current ADP is 87.06, ahead of players who could provide similar production like Ryan Braun (113.24) and Adam Jones (146.55). Make sure you don’t overpay for McCutchen.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte played in a career-high 157 games last year, making his first All-Star team. He’s always hit for a high average, batting .295 for his career.  With at least 21 steals in two of the last three seasons, he can certainly provide value on the basepaths. However, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power, recording just 11 home runs last season. He had never hit more than six home runs in a year entering 2017. He also doesn’t drive in many runs, finishing with just 57 RBI last year. His current ADP of 120.21 seems awfully high for a player of his skillset. Adam Eaton is a reasonable comp in my eyes and his ADP is only 152.76. Buyer beware of Inciarte at his current price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is loaded. They have premier hitters in Stanton, Judge, and Gary Sanchez and have excellent depth when you add in the likes of Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Gardner is expected to be the Yankees leadoff hitter again this season, which should leave him with a ton of opportunities to score runs. He has scored at least 90 runs three times in his career, but has the potential to score at least 100 runs for the first time this year. He also brings a nice combination of speed and power, hitting at least 16 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases in three of the last four years. Although it’s not flashy, he has a valuable .264 career batting average as well. His current ADP is 180.67, leaving him with plenty of value on draft day.

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics

Piscotty was a trendy pick to be a breakout player last year after batting .273 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs scored in 2016. He was a major disappointment though, batting just .235 with nine home runs and 39 RBI in 107 games. He gets a fresh start as a member of the Athletics and shouldn’t be someone you sleep on this season. Batting average was never an area of concern for him in the minors, hitting .287 over 405 games. He’s still just 27 years old and will be part of an Athletics lineup that has a lot of power. His current ADP is 292.2, which is a steal considering his upside.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are rebuilding, trading away some key players this offseason. They especially have holes to fill in their outfield after trading both Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. Their outfield was projected to be Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and Denard Span after those moves, but then they signed Carlos Gomez. Gomez is the only right-handed hitter in the bunch, so he could end up with plenty of at-bats. Smith could work his way into regular playing time still, which would give him a chance to showcase his speed. He played just 81 games last year, but still stole 16 bases. He batted .270 as well, which helps considering he provides no power. His value is mostly limited to stolen bases, but he could steal somewhere between 30 and 40 bases under the right circumstances. With a current ADP of 351.12, Smith could be a very cheap source of steals. I’d much rather get him towards the end of a draft than spend a high pick on Hamilton.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

 

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.