*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 9
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Tier 1
I will start with wide receiver Julio Jones in the first tier. Although the Falcons rank in the top half of the league in DVOA pass offense(15th) and passing yards per game(251.1), it has been a disappointing fantasy season for Julio who has just one touchdown and has also only seen double-digit targets twice this season. Now he gets one of his toughest matchups of the season vs. a Panthers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. he would be my separation play in this tier but would only consider if you are multi-entering. Both running backs enter this week as favorites but I prefer Todd Gurley on the road for a couple reasons starting with the fact Fournette is coming off an ankle injury. Both the Giants(120.7) and Bengals(111.9) have sub-par rush defenses but looking at DVOA ranks vs. the rush, Gurley has the edge as the Giants rank 24th while the Bengals rank 10th. The final straw is the targets as DraftKings is a full PPR site and Gurley is receiving 5.4 targets per week while Fournette is averaging just 2.9 per week.
Tier 2
Now, this is where it gets really interesting. First of all, we have the most unsustainable form I have ever seen with Will Fuller as he has just 13 receptions this season and seven of them have gone for touchdowns. That is about as crazy as it sounds but he does have one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league, DeShaun Watson, with absolutely full trust in his skill. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game(290.4), rank 30th in DVOA vs. the pass, and 27th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Fade at your own risk! Then we have another wideout in Mike Evans who has been a target monster since entering the league and ranks 4th this season with 9.4 per game but gets a tough matchup vs. a much-improved Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 16th in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. It would also be a huge downgrade for Evans should his quarterback, Jameis Winston, miss week 9 as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Stay tuned. On the other side of the ball is our third choice with Saints running back, Mark Ingram who is in a plus situation as the Saints are currently seven-point home favorites. The Bucs sit mid-pack allowing 111.7 yards per game on the ground, rank 20th in DVOA vs. the run and 23rd in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Then combine that with the fact Ingram has been red-hot since the departure of Adrian Peterson as he has received 65 carries and rushed for 294 yards(4.5 yards per carry) in the last three games.
Tier 3
Only four options in the third tier but some tough decisions to make as all four get near elite matchups vs. teams ranking in the bottom third in DraftKings points allowed to their respective positions. Mark Ingram was discussed in the previous tier and I prefer him over Kamara who has received 10 carries just once this season and is more of a third-down back who gets work when the Saints are down. That should not be the case this week as they are huge 13 point home favorites to the Bucs who could be without their star quarterback. Speaking of questionable players, Lamar Miller is questionable in week 9 with a knee injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. If he plays, he is likely to be the highest owned in this tier anyway coming off a fantastic week where he scored twice. I spoke about Zach Ertz last and how I was fading him in the toughest matchup of the season for him was dead wrong. He continued to be Carson Wentz’ top target in the red and he also leads the league with six red-zone touchdowns, having caught eight of his 10 targets inside the 20-yard-line. This week he faces a Broncos defense who has had a ton of trouble with tight ends ranking 30th in DraftKings points allowed to the position. He is my top pick in this tier.
Tier 4
Now we jump into the quarterbacks and it won’t be easy as three of them(Wentz, Mariota, Ryan) face defenses ranked inside the Top 10 of DraftKings points allowed to the position and all but Cam Newton face defenses ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass. Looking at each quarterback’s last four starts, only Jameis Winston has multiple 300+ yard passing games but has only tallied four touchdowns in those games and like I mentioned earlier, is questionable to play this week with a shoulder injury. The other high-risk option in this tier is Marcus Mariota who has 830 passing yards in his last four games with just three touchdown passes but is coming out of a bye week and is reported to be 100% after dealing with a hamstring injury for some time now. I am not at all interested in using him in a tough matchup vs. the Ravens who rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 2nd in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. Like last week, I will turn to MVP candidate, Carson Wentz, who has been extremely consistent with 1,005 yards passing and 13 touchdowns over his last four games. He gets a tough matchup vs. a Broncos defense who hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season but that should only help with his ownership in the tier.
Tier 5
For starters, we can eliminate Trevor Siemian off the list as head coach, Vance Joseph, announced it would be Brock Osweiler under center this week for the Broncos. Andy Dalton will be starting this week but he is also a scratch off my list as he faces the league’s #1 defense when looking at passing yards allowed per game(161.7), DVOA vs. the pass, and DraftKings points allowed to the quarterback. The next option that gets crossed off for me is Blake Bortles despite coming off his best start of the year. He just doesn’t have the targets with Allen Robinson on the shelf and also doesn’t have to force the ball downfield often with an elite defense and one fo the rookie of the year candidates in Leonard Fournette at running back. That leaves two sophomore quarterbacks who are both on the road this week with decent matchups as the Giants(27th) and Texans(29th) both rank near the bottom of the league in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. Of those two options, I prefer Jared Goff as the Rams rank 10th in DVOA vs. the pass while the Colts sit way down in 30th. While Brissett has the best overall target in T.Y. Hilton, Goff has the better collective group with Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, and Cooper Kupp at his disposal. I wouldn’t fault you for playing either this week, but I will be leaning on Goff and the Rams.
Tier 6
Like the previous tier, we can eliminate players and it starts with Kelvin Benjamin who was traded to the Bills and per DraftKings, will not accrue fantasy points this week. Another situation we will have to monitor as the week goes on is the status of Devonta Freeman who suffered a shoulder injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Even if he plays, I will be avoiding as he gets a tough matchup vs. a Panthers defense that ranks Top 5 in rushing yards allowed(81.6 per game) and fourth in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Wide receiver A.J. Green leads all players in this tier with 17.7 DK points per game but gets a very tough matchup this week vs. an elite Jaguars defense at home and will likely be shadowed all day by Jalen Ramsay who currently ranks #3 when looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings. My favorite play in this tier is Christian McCaffrey who is already getting elite targets(8.3 per game) and with Benjamin shipped out of town, could see even more volume moving forward.
Tier 7
Another tough tier this week as DeSean Jackson may be without his quarterback and also faces a tough Saints defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the pass. The same tough matchups exist for Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Mohamed Sanu who face defenses (Rams & Panthers) who rank Top 10 in DVOA vs. the pass. For me, I will be turning to Tedd Ginn Jr. of the Saints who gets a near elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts. The consistency hasn’t been there but Ginn is a home run threat and may not even have to face slot corner, Brent Grimes, who is questionable. The Vegas total(50.5) is one of the highest of the week and I am willing to take a risk here.
Tier 8
I will lead off with the tight ends in this tier as they both have shown consistency and upside. Cameron Brate is only seeing 58% of the snaps for the Bucs this season but continues to be utilized heavily when in the game as he has five straight games with 60 or more yards and has already scored four touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Saints who rank Top 5 in both DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to tight ends. At the position, I prefer Jack Doyle who is coming off a 100-yard game and his second touchdown of the season but it’s the volume I like more than anything. He is second to T.Y. Hilton on the team with 6.9 targets per week. The two other plays I will be targeting in this final tier will be Panthers wideout Devin Funchess who has now become the #1 wideout in Carolina with the trade of Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline. The matchup is a toss up for me as the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points given up but then rank 25th when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Funchess isn’t going to break any long runs after the catch but should see 10+ targets and be a key in the redzone for Cam Newton. The final play I like in this tier is rookie Joe Mixon who somewhat broke out last week after 91 receiving yards and saw his biggest snap count share of the season at 63% vs. Jeremy Hill who seen is lowest at 13%. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Jaguars who despite being a top defense against the pass, have been awful against the run and rank 32nd in rush yards per game allowed(138.6) and 32nd in DVOA vs. the run.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
