With plenty of day games on the schedule Thursday, only five contests will make up the main evening slate in DFS. The starting pitching options aren’t great, so choosing the right hitters could be the key to coming in the money.
Read MoreMLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/5/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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After a packed holiday schedule Wednesday, there are only eight games in the majors Thursday. All of them are at least at night, leaving plenty of quality options to choose from in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Justin Verlander vs. Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $12,200
DraftKings = $13,400
Verlander has shown that he is human in his last two starts, allowing nine runs in 11.2 innings. Even with that very brief rough patch, his numbers are outstanding this season with a 2.12 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and a 0.86 WHIP. He did strike out a total of 14 batters in those two poor outings and has a stellar 10.9 K/9 for the year overall. The White Sox have scored the seventh-fewest runs (345) in baseball, setting Verlander up to rebound with a big performance.
Jeremy Hellickson vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $7,700
Hellickson doesn’t get much publicity in a Nationals rotation that includes Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. He hasn’t pitched as well as his 2.63 ERA indicates, but he still has a 3.51 FIP. He has allowed a .269 opponents BABIP, which is exactly the same as his career mark. One of the key reasons for his improved numbers is that he only has a 0.9 HR/9 compared to 1.9 HR/9 that he allowed last year. The Marlins have hit the second-fewest home runs (69) and scored the third-fewest runs (323) in baseball, making Hellickson an intriguing cheap tournament play.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,200
Goldschmidt has carried over his hot streak from June, hitting 7-for-14 with two home runs in four games since the calendar turned to July. He’s been crushing lefties with a .452 wOBA on the season overall, making him a great option against Lauer and his bloated 1.76 WHIP.
Eric Hosmer vs. Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,800
The addition of Hosmer hasn’t done much to spark the Padres lineup as he is only batting .270 with nine home runs. His .325 BABIP is actually slightly higher than his career mark, but he’s hurt himself with a career-high 21.2% strikeout rate. That being said, Miller has looked awful in two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and Hosmer does have a .351 wOBA against righties. He won’t cost much, so he could be worth the risk in tournament play.
Others to consider: Brandon Belt (first base) and John Hicks (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Jurickson Profar vs. Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,900
The Rangers continue to find playing time for Profar, who is 8-for-21 with three doubles during his current five-game hitting streak. With the Rangers nowhere near a playoff spot, it would make sense for them to play Profar as much as possible to help further his development. He’ll likely be in the lineup Thursday against Boyd considering he has a .363 wOBA against lefties this season. Of note, Profar is only eligible at second base on FanDuel as he is listed at shortstop on DraftKings.
Joe Panik vs. Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,500
After showing a lot of promise for the Cardinals last year, Weaver has struggled mightily with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season. He’s done a good job holding righties to a .293 wOBA, but he has a .373 wOBA against lefties. Panik has hit right-handed pitchers well again this year, leaving him as a viable option who might even have more upside than Profar does.
Others to consider: Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman vs. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Minute Maid Park
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $5,500
Bregman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball of late, hitting 16-for-37 (.432) with five home runs during his nine-game hitting streak. With Carlos Correa (back) on the DL, it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Astros. Bregman has a .416 wOBA against left-handed pitching, so look for him to continue his hot streak against Rodon.
Kyle Seager vs. Jaime Barria, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,800
Speaking of third baseman playing well right now, Seager is 12-for-28 (.429) with three home runs in his last eight games. He still has a long ways to go to improve his .239 batting average, but his recent run of success has boosted him up to 16 homers this season. Barria has a 3.40 ERA, but his 4.81 FIP and 1.6 HR/9 could be troublesome against Seager.
Others to consider: Anthony Rendon and Eduardo Escobar
SHORTSTOP
Brandon Crawford vs. Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,500
With how poorly Weaver has pitched against left-handed hitters this season, targeting Giants’ lefties could provide significant production for your entry. Crawford is in the middle of the best offensive season of his career by hitting .310 with 10 home runs and a .373 OBP. He has also recorded a .376 wOBA against righties.
Jorge Polanco vs. Andrew Cashner, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,000
Polanco has missed most of this season due to suspension and his return is probably too late to help the Twins make a push for the playoffs. He quietly had a very good campaign last year when they earned a Wild Card spot, hitting .256 with 13 home runs, 74 RBI and 13 steals in only 133 games. Polanco logged his first multi-hit game Wednesday and could provide value at this dirt cheap price on both sites considering Cashner has 1.57 WHIP.
Others to consider: Manny Machado and Andrelton Simmons
OUTFIELD
Nicholas Castellanos vs. Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $5,000
Gallardo actually had a strong performance in his last outing by allowing three runs and recording seven strikeouts in 7.1 innings. It did come against the White Sox, though, so he didn’t exactly face a tough opponent. The Tigers lineup isn’t great either, but Castellanos has been a bright spot by batting .309 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI. Gallardo has finished with an ERA of at least 5.42 in both of the last two seasons, making Castellanos an excellent option despite the lack of a platoon advantage.
A.J. Pollock vs. Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,900
Pollock was off to a great start this season before landing on the DL with a thumb injury. He has shown the ability to put up big numbers, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy in recent years. He’s still looking for his first hit since being activated, but this is a matchup to exploit since Lauer has allowed a .387 wOBA to righties.
Wil Myers vs. Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,300
Myers had his own injury issue that has left him to play only 22 games this year. He was coming off of two straight seasons where he finished with at least 28 home runs and 20 steals, but that streak seems likely to end with only half the season left to play. He’s starting to heat up by hitting 8-for-27 (.296) with a home run and six RBI in his last seven games and is another Padre to consider with Miller on the mound.
Others to consider: Eddie Rosario and Justin Upton
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 5/17/18
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There are a lot of teams off Thursday, leaving only nine games for the main evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
STARTING PITCHERS
Tyler Skaggs vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $10,400
Skaggs is on pace for the best season of his career, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.19 FIP through eight starts. He had finished with a WHIP of at least 1.39 in back-to-back seasons but has been able to cut that down to 1.21 this year. He’s allowed a .300 BABIP and a 37.1% hard-hit rate, which are both either at or higher than his career marks, so he’s not exactly getting lucky either. His 9.4 K/9 this season has been aided by the fact that he has thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.8% of the batters that he has faced and a career-best 10.4% swinging strike rate. His price is climbing, but he’s certainly one of the best options Thursday.
Chad Bettis vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $7,400
Bettis’ 3.12 ERA looks nice, but he’s been lucky with a 4.35 FIP and a .257 BABIP allowed that is over 50 percentage points lower than his career mark. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal either with just a 6.6 K/9 for his career. Like many pitchers, Bettis struggles in Coors field with a 5.37 ERA there for his career compared to a 4.29 ERA on the road. Those splits have been even more drastic this year with a 6.89 ERA in three home starts and a 1.35 ERA in five games on the road. Although his strikeout upside isn’t great, Bettis could be worth the risk in tournament play based on his price.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Eric Hosmer vs. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,800
After recording only two home runs and four RBI in his first 26 games, Hosmer has picked up his production with four home runs and 12 RBI in his last 14 contests. He’s only batted .231 over that 14-game stretch, but that’s mostly because of his abnormally low .205 BABIP. Hosmer has followed up his stellar .400 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2017 with a .377 mark this season, making him a great option against Kuhl, who really struggles against lefties.
Matt Olson vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,600
Olson’s power numbers are way down, following up his .652 slugging percentage in 2017 with only a .404 mark this year. His strikeout rate sits at 30.4%, which certainly isn’t helping his cause any. He is only batting .238, which is a bit scary when you consider he has a favorable .323 BABIP. Despite all his struggles, he still has a .359 wOBA against righties this year and won’t face an overpowering one in Sanchez on Thursday, so he could provide upside considering his price.
Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and James McCann (catcher)
SECOND BASE
Jed Lowrie vs. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,100
Lowrie has cooled off some after his torrid start, but he’s still batting .296 in May. His power numbers are on the decline with one double and three home runs this month, but that was to be expected considering his career .414 slugging percentage. He hit righties well last year with a .353 wOBA and has been even better with a .423 wOBA this season, making him another Athletics’ hitter who could provide value against Sanchez.
Rougned Odor vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,100
Odor batted only .204 last year, but he provided plenty of power with 30 home runs. Injuries have limited him to just 16 games this season, but he’s still looking for his first homer. Shields doesn’t exactly have electric stuff anymore with a 5.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 this season and Odor does have more success against righties, so he may have some upside.
Others to consider: Ozzie Albies and Sean Rodriguez
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,100
Samardzija is struggling, to say the least, recording a 6.94 ERA, 6.27 FIP and 1.71 WHIP across his first five starts. He’s had major control issues with a 5.8 BB/9 and has already allowed five home runs in just 23.1 innings. Things could get ugly for him again Thursday, especially against Arenado since he is 12-for-29 (.414) against him in his career.
Danny Valencia vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800
Price hasn’t pitched well since leaving his start against the Yankees April 11 with an injury, watching his ERA increase from 2.40 to 4.89 since. He’s pitched more than 5.2 innings only after that game and could be risky moving forward due to his battle with carpal tunnel syndrome. Valencia hits lefties well and is 13-for-22 (.591) against Price in his career.
Others to consider: Josh Donaldson and Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
Manny Machado vs. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $5,600
Machado is a good player to target most nights unless he’s facing one of the true elite aces in the league. Not only is he batting a robust .342, but he also has 13 home runs and 11 doubles. He has hit Price well in his career too, going 11-for-37 (.297) with four home runs.
Jose Iglesias vs. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,000
If you can make Machado work in your budget, he’s the option I prefer at shortstop. However, if you need to save some money at the position, Iglesias is someone to have on your radar. He has really struggled against righties with a .282 wOBA against them for his career but has a .328 wOBA against lefties. Gonzales has had troubles keeping runners off base with a 1.64 WHIP for his career, so Iglesias may be able to find his way on base a couple of times in this game.
Others to consider: Jean Segura and Marcus Semien
OUTFIELD
Mookie Betts vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Fenway Park
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,800
I’ve already discussed a couple of Orioles’ hitters with favorable matchups in this game, but now it’s time to move to the other dugout with Betts. He’s been one of the elite hitters in all of baseball this year and even though Gausman is off to an encouraging start, Betts is 12-for-29 (.414) with three home runs against him in his career. Betts actually has more walks (four) than strikeouts (three) against Gausman.
Joey Gallo vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium = Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,300
When you play Gallo, it’s for his home run upside since he is only batting .201 for his career. This year has been no different with a .200 average and a 34.3% strikeout rate. The power is still there though and Shields has a HR/9 of at least 2.0 in back-to-back seasons, so Gallo could be worth the risk at this price.
Gerardo Parra vs. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,300
Parra really struggles against lefties, but his wOBA for his career is almost 50 percentage points higher against righties. He’s not off to a great start this season with a .674 OPS, but facing Samardzija might be just what he needs since he is 12-for-20 (.400) with two home runs against him in his career.
Others to consider: Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents
*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents
The MLB offseason is often referred to as the “Hot Stove” due to all of the trades and signings that occur in the winter months. However, the market has developed extremely slowly this year, leaving several impact players still left unsigned. As we continue our fantasy baseball season preview series, we’ll take a look at some big names who are available and the potential impact they could have this season.
J.D. Martinez, OF
Martinez had his breakout campaign with the Tigers when he batted .282 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI and 93 runs scored in 2015. The Tigers decided to start the rebuilding process last year, shipping Martinez to the Diamondbacks. He went on to have a scorching hot finish, hitting .302 with 29 home runs, 65 RBI and 47 runs scored in only 62 games with his new team.
Martinez is still on the market and should command a hefty contract. He’s not a great defender, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up in the American League where he can also spend some time at DH, especially towards the end of his contract. He’s only played more than 123 games once in his career, so it might be tough for him to hold up as an everyday outfielder as he gets older.
No matter where Martinez signs, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to perform at the rate he did with the Diamondbacks. He hit a home run ever 8.0 at-bats with Arizona, which is far more frequent than his career average of once every 18.6 at-bats. Even during his stellar 2015 season, he only hit a home run once every 15.7 at-bats. He does hit for a high average, so he doesn’t need to hit over 40 home runs to still be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Expect him to finish this season around the top-10 fantasy outfielders.
Yu Darvish, SP
Darvish is the big fish still left in the sea when it comes to starting pitchers with rumored interested suitors being the Yankees, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers. Although he struggled mightily in the World Series, his strong finish with the Dodgers was a big part of why they made it that far.
The good news from a fantasy perspective is that Darvish pitched 186.2 innings during the regular season. He missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched only 100.1 innings in 2016. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy, posting an 11.0 K/9 for his career. No matter where he signs, Darvish should still provide strong value in most categories. However, if you play in a league that counts wins, you’d like to see him sign with a team that has a potent offense and a strong bullpen. If he ultimately ends up with the Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees, he could surpass his previous career-high of 16 wins that he set back in 2012.
Eric Hosmer, 1B
The first base market has been slow to develop with many of baseball’s better teams already set at the position. Hosmer has had limited suitors as a result, with the two primary teams reportedly interested being the Royals and the Padres.
Hosmer is not your traditional masher at first base. He’s never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and has reached at least 100 RBI only one time during his career. The good news is he set career-highs last year in batting average (.318) and OBP (.385). He only had a strikeout percentage of 15.5% as well, marking the fourth time in his career he has finished under 16%.
The bad news with Hosmer is that he’s been wildly inconsistent. For example, his batting averages the last four seasons have been .270, .297, .266 and .318, respectively. Those are some big swings when you consider you aren’t drafting him for his ability to hit home runs. With so many other elite options at first base, expect Hosmer to rank someone between 10 and 15 at the position when the season is all said and done.
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Moustakas if a former first-round pick who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Royals. He had largely not lived up to the hype heading into the 2017 season, making only one All-Star team during his career. The one time he received that honor was in 2015 when he finished the season batting .284 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 73 runs scored. Those are solid numbers, but nothing to write home about.
He finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting a franchise-record 38 home runs. The problem was the Royals were one of the worst offensive teams in the league, resulting in 27 of his home runs being solo shots. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored.
Considering he hit so many home runs, it’s impressive that he only had a 15.7% strikeout percentage. It’s not out of the ordinary for Moustakas though as he has a 15.5% strikeout percentage for his career. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate though, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts last year, by far the highest percentage of his career.
There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding Moustakas this winter, but he could actually see an increase in value if he leaves the Royals. Of his 38 home runs last year, 24 of them came on the road. If he moves to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark, he could approach 30 home runs again this season. Landing on a potent offensive team like the Yankees would be ideal. Even if he finds the perfect fit, his ceiling isn’t much higher than that of a top 12-to-15 third baseman in fantasy baseball.
Lorenzo Cain, OF
Cain certainly wasn’t the cause of the Royals anemic offense last year, batting .300 with a career-high .363 OBP. It marked the third time in the last four seasons that he finished with a batting average of at least .300. Not only did he have a career-low 15.5% strikeout percentage, but he also recorded a career-high 8.4% walk percentage.
Cain can provide value with his speed, stealing at least 26 bases in three of the last four years. While he did have 26 steals last year, it’s important to note that those came in a career-high 155 games played. In 2014 and 2015 when he finished with 28 steals each season, he played in 133 and 140 games, respectively. Cain also doesn’t provide much in the way of home runs, hitting no more than 16 home runs in any season of his career.
Like many of the big name free agents, the market for Cain has been slow to develop. Regardless of where he signs, he really doesn’t have a high upside in any category outside of batting average. As a result, his ceiling is likely finishing just inside the top-20 outfielders in fantasy, with his floor being in the 25-30 range as long as he stays healthy.