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MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. STL, vs. SD

After missing almost two months with an oblique injury, Ray returned to face the Marlins last week. It was a great matchup for his first game back and he took full advantage, striking out six batters in six scoreless innings. Ray had a breakout campaign last year, finishing with a 2.89 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and a 1.15 WHIP. He provided a ton of strikeouts with a 12.1 K/9 and he’s been even better this season with a 13.6 K/9 across seven starts. The Cardinals have the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers (.676) in baseball and the Padres have scored the fifth-fewest runs (321) overall, setting Ray up for an excellent Week 15.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. BAL, at PIT

Eflin couldn’t have pitched much worse than he did in 2017, posting a 6.16 ERA, 6.10 FIP and a 1.42 WHIP across 11 starts. He wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher either with a 4.9 K/9. With tremendous improvement in that area leading to a 9.1 K/9, Eflin has a 3.02 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and a 1.13 WHIP this season. His .295 opponents BABIP is right in line with his career mark, which is good news for his prognosis moving forward. He was particularly hot in the month of June, recording a 1.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in five starts. The Orioles have scored the second-fewest runs (305) in baseball and the Pirates are in the bottom-third in terms of OPS against righties, so look for Eflin to continue his recent run of success.

Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins: at MIL, vs. BAL

Like Eflin, Gibson was bad last year with a 5.07 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and a 1.53 WHIP. It marked his second straight season with a WHIP of at least 1.53 and an ERA of 5.07. He’s taken his game in the opposite direction this year with a 3.48 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. Not only has his ability to limit baserunners been a key part of his success, but he also has a career-high 8.7 K/9 after never finishing a season with a K/9 higher than 6.9. He allowed five runs in his last start against the White Sox, but he did pitch seven innings and recorded seven strikeouts. He had allowed three runs or fewer in each of his previous six outings. The Brewers aren’t exactly a bad offensive team, but they are middle of the pack in terms of runs scored. With the weak Orioles lineup in his second start, Gibson is a streaming option with upside who is still available in 67% of Yahoo! leagues.

Nathan Eovaldi, Tampa Bay Rays: at MIA, at NYM

Eovaldi has had his ups and downs since returning from Tommy John surgery, but his overall numbers aren’t bad as he has a 4.08 ERA, 4.87 FIP and a 0.82 WHIP in six starts. The Rays rotation is a mess due to injuries, leaving Eovaldi as one of the few healthy traditional starters they have left. He doesn’t have great strikeout potential with a 6.6 K/9 for his career, but you don’t see many better two-start weeks than this. He’ll get to avoid the DH pitching in two National League stadiums and he’ll also get to face two of the bottom-four teams in runs scored. Eovaldi is still available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues and could provide a big boost in Week 15.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 15

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: vs. CLE, vs. BOS

Junis had a stretch of success early on this season, but he’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts. He allowed at least three home runs in all three of those games and has a 2.1 HR/9 overall. He allowed 1.4 HR/9 in 2017, so this isn’t just an isolated bad stretch. The Indians and Red Sox are both in the top-three in home runs and the top-six in runs scored, so make sure Junis is anchored to your bench.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres: at OAK, at ARI

Richard had his best month of the season in June, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in five starts. Two of those outings came against the Braves, making his success even more impressive. His overall numbers don’t stand out, but he hasn’t been bad either with a 4.29 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and a 1.23 WHIP. He’ll have to deal with the DH playing in Oakland for his first start, which is no easy task since the Athletics are tied for the fifth-most home runs (112) in baseball. Despite their struggles to score runs earlier this year, the Diamondbacks have the eight-highest OPS against lefties (.764). Since Richard doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts, this may be a good week to keep him out of your lineup.

Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves: at NYY, at MIL

Sanchez was hit hard as a member of the Tigers last year, finishing with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The Braves have a lot of talented young starters coming up through their system. but decided to take a flier on Sanchez to provide veteran depth. It’s proven to be an excellent signing so far as Sanchez has a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nine appearances, eight of which are starts. He has been a bit lucky, though, based on his 4.05 FIP and .238 BABIP allowed. This could be the week his numbers start to take a turn for the worse since he will face Yankees in Yankee Stadium for his first start. That game alone makes him someone to avoid.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 14

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 14

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners: at BAL, vs. KC

Paxton continues to serve as the ace of the Mariners’ staff, recording a 3.72 ERA, 3.09 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. He has increased his K/9 each of the last four seasons, topping out at an 11.5 K/9 this year. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing 10 runs over 7.1 innings in his last two starts. They came against the Red Sox and Yankees, though, two of the top offensive teams in baseball. He’ll get the opposite end of the spectrum in Week 14 as the Royals and Orioles are the bottom two teams in baseball in terms of runs scored. The Royals do have the fewest strikeouts in baseball, but that didn’t stop Paxton from striking them out 10 times over six innings in their first meeting this season.

Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers: vs. SD, vs. CWS

Hamels has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, but his 5.14 FIP suggests he hasn’t exactly pitched that well. He’s been aided by a .253 opponents BABIP, which is 30 points lower than his career mark. He has also allowed 1.8 HR/9, which is by far the highest of his career. On the plus side, his strikeout percentage is up from 17.1% last year to 23.4% this season. He may not be the pitcher that he once was in his prime, but he can still provide plenty of value in the right matchup. The Padres and White Sox are both in the bottom-eight in baseball in runs scored and OPS against left-handed pitching, so this could be one of those very productive weeks for Hamels.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: at NYM, at SD

Taillon’s 4.03 ERA doesn’t look great, but it should be noted that a lot of the damage done to his ERA came in three starts where he allowed 18 runs in 11 innings. He has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his other 12 starts, including in each of his last five outings. His career-high 9.7% swinging strike rate has also resulted in an 8.5 K/9. The Mets don’t have a great lineup, to begin with, but they could be without one of their best hitters in Brandon Nimmo (finger) in Taillon’s first start of the week Monday. His second start comes against a Padres team that has the lowest OPS against right-handed pitchers (.657) in baseball.

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at MIA, vs. SF

Godley has issued 4.4 BB/9, which has helped lead to a bloated 1.49 WHIP. His 4.64 ERA isn’t terrible considering his WHIP, but it’s hard to have consistent success when allowing so many baserunners. He does have strikeout upside with a 9.0 K/9 and he has allowed no more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Marlins have scored the third-fewest runs (283) and have hit the fewest home runs (60) in baseball, setting things up nicely for Godley in his first start of the week. The Giants offense hasn’t been that bad, but they have struck out the fifth-most times (720).

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 14

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds: at ATL, vs. MIL

Mahle has a respectable 3.89 ERA, but several of his supporting numbers raise causes for concern. He has a 4.90 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, with the WHIP being especially scary when you consider his 1.7 HR/9. He has also allowed a 41.5% hard-hit rate. Even though he held the Braves to three runs and recorded 11 strikeouts over six innings in their first meeting this season, the Braves have a very tough lineup that has scored the fifth-most runs (378). He was lucky to only allow two runs over five innings in his first start this season against the Brewers because he allowed 11 baserunners in that outing. This might be the week to place him on your bench.

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: vs. LAA, at SEA

The wheels are starting to fall off for Junis, who has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in four June starts. His opponents’ BABIP wasn’t terribly high over that stretch either at .300, but he allowed seven home runs in 24 innings. As a result of his recent poor performance, he now has a 4.43 ERA and a 4.98 FIP on the season overall. The Angels have hit the fourth-most home runs (107) in baseball and the Mariners have put up some big offensive numbers lately, making Junis too much of a risk for Week 14.

Jonathan Loaisiga, New York Yankees: at PHI, vs. BOS

With the Yankees down two starting pitchers, they had to recall Loaisiga from Double-A to help fill out their rotation. His 4.32 ERA in Double-A was nothing to write home about, but he showed tremendous strikeout upside with an 11.5 K/9 and excellent control with a 1.1 BB/9. He had six strikeouts over five scoreless innings in his first start against the Rays but allowed three runs in only 3.2 innings in his second start against the Mariners. Getting to play the Phillies in Philadelphia where there is no DH isn’t necessarily a poor matchup, but his second start against the Red Sox makes him someone to avoid altogether.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

We are heading into the month of May and while you normally don’t want to read too much into early stats, the sample size is starting to get large enough where some information can be gained on players values moving forward. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals: vs. PIT, vs. PHI

Scherzer is certainly one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. His strikeout rate has actually increased in three-straight seasons as well. He doesn’t give up much solid contact either with opponents posting just a 28.4% hard-hit rate against Scherzer for his career. He’s been dominant again this season, recording a 1.62 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 0.82 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 through six starts. The Pirates have been a good offensive team this year, but fare much better against left-handed pitching, hitting .284 against them compared to .255 against righties. The Phillies have the second-most strikeouts in baseball, so this could be a monster week from Scherzer.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays: at MIN, at TB

Sanchez looked like one of the young emerging pitchers in baseball in 2016, finishing 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Blister problems derailed his 2017 campaign though, throwing only 36 innings. The blister problems seem to be behind him this year, already throwing 31.2 innings through five starts. He has a respectable 3.69 ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 4.3 BB/9 are a cause for concern. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 6.9 K/9. When he’s pitching well, he’s getting a lot of ground balls and keeping the ball in the ballpark, recording a 56.1% ground-ball rate and 0.8 HR/9 for his career. The Twins have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball and the Rays aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either, leaving Sanchez with the potential for a valuable week.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox: vs. KC, at TEX

His 4.19 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2017 don’t jump off the page, but Rodriguez did have a 9.8 K/9. He threw a first-pitch strike to 61.2% of the batters that he faced, which was the highest mark of his career. He’s off to a similar start this season with a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 through four outings. Both the Royals and Rangers are in the bottom 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored with the Royals actually scoring the second-fewest runs in the league. Add that to Rodiguez’s strikeout upside and he could be in line for a valuable two-start week.

Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at NYM, vs. SF

The Braves are loaded with young talent, including Newcomb, who they are relying on to be an important part of their starting rotation. He’s had control issues in his brief Major League career, posting a 5.0 BB/9 through 127.2 innings. The good news is he doesn’t allow a lot of solid contact with a 27.4% hard-hit rate for his career. Add in his 9.7 K/9 last year and he can provide value despite his high walk rate. His first matchup this week against the Mets is excellent since they have the fifth-lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers (.219) this season. His second start brings the Giants, who have scored the sixth-fewest runs (100) in baseball. Newcomb is still available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues, so consider picking him up if you need a starting pitcher this week.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6

Sonny Gray, New York Yankees: at HOU, vs. CLE

Gray posted a 3.72 ERA after being traded to the Yankees last year, but his 4.87 FIP indicates that he did not pitch nearly that well. He’s been terrible out of the gates this season with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Opponents do have an abnormally high .375 BABIP against Gray, but he’s not doing himself any favors with a 6.9 BB/9. The Indians aren’t a great offensive team, but his matchup against the potent Astros lineup is scary. He won’t continue to pitch this poorly over the course of the season, but this might not be the week that he rights the ship.

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: at BOS, vs. DET

Junis’ numbers look impressive with a 3.34 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through five starts. However, he hasn’t pitched nearly that well. He has a 5.78 FIP and has been extremely lucky with opponents registering a meager .155 BABIP. He has also allowed eight home runs in just 32.1 innings. That’s a recipe for disaster in a start against the Red Sox this week. He has pitched extremely well in two previous starts against the Tigers this season, but he may have already dug too big of a hole for your fantasy team to get out of by then.

Matt Koch, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. LAD, vs. HOU

Koch hasn’t exactly put up overwhelming numbers during his career in the minors, recording a 4.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 505 innings. He’s only allowed three earned runs across 12 innings in his first two starts this season, but opponents have just a .194 BABIP. He’s allowed a 35.1% hard-hit rate as well, so don’t get too excited about two good starts. He’ll face two of the top 10 offenses this week in terms of runs scored, so keep him out of your lineup.