MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 6
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We are heading into the month of May and while you normally don’t want to read too much into early stats, the sample size is starting to get large enough where some information can be gained on players values moving forward. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.
Starters With Favorable Matchups
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals: vs. PIT, vs. PHI
Scherzer is certainly one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. His strikeout rate has actually increased in three-straight seasons as well. He doesn’t give up much solid contact either with opponents posting just a 28.4% hard-hit rate against Scherzer for his career. He’s been dominant again this season, recording a 1.62 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 0.82 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 through six starts. The Pirates have been a good offensive team this year, but fare much better against left-handed pitching, hitting .284 against them compared to .255 against righties. The Phillies have the second-most strikeouts in baseball, so this could be a monster week from Scherzer.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays: at MIN, at TB
Sanchez looked like one of the young emerging pitchers in baseball in 2016, finishing 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Blister problems derailed his 2017 campaign though, throwing only 36 innings. The blister problems seem to be behind him this year, already throwing 31.2 innings through five starts. He has a respectable 3.69 ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 4.3 BB/9 are a cause for concern. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 6.9 K/9. When he’s pitching well, he’s getting a lot of ground balls and keeping the ball in the ballpark, recording a 56.1% ground-ball rate and 0.8 HR/9 for his career. The Twins have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball and the Rays aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either, leaving Sanchez with the potential for a valuable week.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox: vs. KC, at TEX
His 4.19 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2017 don’t jump off the page, but Rodriguez did have a 9.8 K/9. He threw a first-pitch strike to 61.2% of the batters that he faced, which was the highest mark of his career. He’s off to a similar start this season with a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 through four outings. Both the Royals and Rangers are in the bottom 10 in baseball in terms of runs scored with the Royals actually scoring the second-fewest runs in the league. Add that to Rodiguez’s strikeout upside and he could be in line for a valuable two-start week.
Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves: at NYM, vs. SF
The Braves are loaded with young talent, including Newcomb, who they are relying on to be an important part of their starting rotation. He’s had control issues in his brief Major League career, posting a 5.0 BB/9 through 127.2 innings. The good news is he doesn’t allow a lot of solid contact with a 27.4% hard-hit rate for his career. Add in his 9.7 K/9 last year and he can provide value despite his high walk rate. His first matchup this week against the Mets is excellent since they have the fifth-lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers (.219) this season. His second start brings the Giants, who have scored the sixth-fewest runs (100) in baseball. Newcomb is still available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues, so consider picking him up if you need a starting pitcher this week.
Starters to Avoid
Sonny Gray, New York Yankees: at HOU, vs. CLE
Gray posted a 3.72 ERA after being traded to the Yankees last year, but his 4.87 FIP indicates that he did not pitch nearly that well. He’s been terrible out of the gates this season with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Opponents do have an abnormally high .375 BABIP against Gray, but he’s not doing himself any favors with a 6.9 BB/9. The Indians aren’t a great offensive team, but his matchup against the potent Astros lineup is scary. He won’t continue to pitch this poorly over the course of the season, but this might not be the week that he rights the ship.
Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: at BOS, vs. DET
Junis’ numbers look impressive with a 3.34 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through five starts. However, he hasn’t pitched nearly that well. He has a 5.78 FIP and has been extremely lucky with opponents registering a meager .155 BABIP. He has also allowed eight home runs in just 32.1 innings. That’s a recipe for disaster in a start against the Red Sox this week. He has pitched extremely well in two previous starts against the Tigers this season, but he may have already dug too big of a hole for your fantasy team to get out of by then.
Matt Koch, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. LAD, vs. HOU
Koch hasn’t exactly put up overwhelming numbers during his career in the minors, recording a 4.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 505 innings. He’s only allowed three earned runs across 12 innings in his first two starts this season, but opponents have just a .194 BABIP. He’s allowed a 35.1% hard-hit rate as well, so don’t get too excited about two good starts. He’ll face two of the top 10 offenses this week in terms of runs scored, so keep him out of your lineup.