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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Tuesday could be a big night for offense in baseball as many teams will be sending a member of the back end of their rotation to the mound. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Kenta Maeda vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,300

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. Tuesday brings a great matchup against the Marlins who are in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, batting average and slugging percentage. Maeda isn’t overly expensive either, making him a pitcher to build your team around.

Zach Davis vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

Davies finished with a respectable 3.90 ERA in 2017 despite having a career-low 5.8 K/9. A lot of his success can be attributed to his career-low 28.8% hard-hit rate. He’s off to an inconsistent start this season, to say the least, through four starts. In two starts against the Cardinals and Mets, he allowed 11 earned runs in 10 innings. In his other to starts, he allowed one earned run in 12.1 innings against the Cubs and Reds. He’s a bit of a risky play, but the good news is that he gets to face a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs in baseball this season. His strikeout upside isn’t great, but he’s still a tournament play option.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Josh Bell vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Bell is off to a slow start in the power department, slugging just one home run so far this season. His ISO is only .120, but don’t expect it to stay that low for too much longer considering his career mark of .188. After posting a .343 wOBA against right-handers last year, he gets to face Zimmermann on Tuesday, who lefties crushed for a .375 wOBA in 2017.

Brandon Belt vs. Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,700

Last year was a season to forget for Belt, who hit .241 and was limited to 104 games due to injury. He had only a .284 BABIP compared to his career mark of .334 and he still had a hard-hit rate of 38.4%, so he was a candidate to improve this season as long as he can stay healthy. He’s been just that so far and is off to a fantastic start, batting .290 with five home runs and a .392 OBP. Not only does he have a career 132 wRC+ against righties, but he has had excellent success against Roark, hitting 5-for-12 with a home run and three walks against him in his career.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Yasmani Grandal (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,500

Lowrie may be off to one of the most surprising starts in baseball this season, tied for the second-most RBI (23) in the league. He’s batting a lofty .357, but a lot of that has to do with his .403 BABIP, which is over one hundred points higher than his career mark. A switch-hitter, he has a career .340 wOBA against lefties, so look to ride his hot streak again Tuesday.

Joey Wendle vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,100

Wendle is not a big home run hitter, but he did have a career .288 batting average in 641 games in the minors. He’s getting a chance to play every day for the rebuilding Rays and is off to a hot start, hitting .304 with a .385 OBP. His 40.5% hard-hit rate is probably unsustainable, so he may experience some regression as the league gets more familiar with how to pitch to him. Cobb has a horrible 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP through his first two starts, so Wendle might be able to provide value.

Others to consider: DJ LeMahieu and Howie Kendrick

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $5,400

Arenando has been on fire since returning from his suspension, going 9-for-16 with three home runs and six RBI in four games. This will be left-hander Lauer’s first appearance in the majors, which is no easy task at Coors Field. Arenado had a 220 wRC+ against lefties last year, so don’t be surprised if he greets Lauer rudely Tuesday.

Matt Chapman vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,100

Chapman has slowed down a bit after his torrid start, but he still has a hit in four of his last five games. He’s shown a significant improvement in his pitch selection in the early going, increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate from last year. Hamels held lefties to a sparkling .215 wOBA last year, but righties fared much better at .324. This could be a good game to stack Athletic righties, Chapman included.

Others to consider: Adrian Beltre and Daniel Robertson

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Manny Machado vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $5,200

Machado is looking to put his .259 batting average from last year firmly in the rearview mirror, hitting .360 out of the gates this season. His power numbers haven’t suffered either with eight home runs and seven doubles through 23 games. Most of his struggles came on the road last season, hitting .229 compared to .288 at home. Faria doesn’t exactly have overpowering stuff, so Machado could keep things rolling in this game.

Marcus Semien vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,700

Semien has been hitting the ball with authority so far this season, posting a 37.3% hard-hit rate compared to his 29.1% career mark. He has shown he can hit for power when healthy, clubbing 27 home runs in 159 games in 2016. Right-handed pitchers have given him trouble with a career .299 wOBA, but he’s recorded a .344 wOBA against lefties. He’s yet another Athletics right-handed hitter with upside Tuesday.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Adeiny Hechavarria

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Khris Davis vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,700

Davis rounds out the list of righties you may want to stack against Hamels. Not only is Davis off to a great start with six home runs and 21 RBI, but he has owned Hamels in his career, hitting three home runs and drawing five walks in 18 plate appearances.

Denard Span vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,300

Span is another player on the list for most unlikely start, driving in 17 runs in 18 games. Last year he had only 43 RBI in 129 games for the Giants. He has mostly batted leadoff this season, with the extra at-bats giving him a boost in DFS. He’s not going to keep up with this RBI pace, but he’s a viable option to consider Tuesday against the struggling Cobb.

Matt Kemp vs. Dillon Peters, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,600

Kemp hasn’t disappointed so far in his second stint with the Dodgers, batting .321 with three home runs. He is a prime regression candidate though with his .417 BABIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate both well above his career marks. He does mash lefties with a career 147 wRC+ and faces a struggling one in Peters on Tuesday. Based on his cheap price, Kemp could provide significant value in this game, especially on FanDuel.

Others to consider: J.D. Martinez and Mallex Smith

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

As we get ready to approach May, we’re finally moving away from the cold weather that has led to some abnormal starts this season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: at BAL, vs. SEA

Carrasco is off to a great start this season, posting a 2.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts. His K/9 sits at only 6.8, but expect that to change quickly considering his 8.9 career K/9. He limited batters to a 29.3% hard-hit rate last year and has been even better this season at 20.8%. His first start of the week against the Orioles is a great matchup considering their .215 team batting average is the lowest in baseball. He’ll face a much tougher lineup in the Mariners for his second start, but he’s still someone who could be in line for an excellent week.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals: at SF, vs. AZ

Gonzalez had a surprisingly stellar season in 2017, finishing with a 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9. A deeper dive indicates he was a bit lucky though since his FIP was 3.93 and opponents had just a .258 BABIP. He saw a dip in velocity for his fastball, but he countered that by throwing his changeup a career-high 18.5% of the time. Both trends have continued this season as well, resulting in him again having success with a 2.49 ERA through four starts. He’ll face one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Giants for his first start and then he’ll get the Diamondbacks at home after pitching to a 2.76 ERA at Nationals Park in 2017.

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers: vs. MIA, at SF

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. This is shaping up to be a dream week against the lowly Marlins and Giants, so look for Maeda to provide tremendous value.

Chad Bettis, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, at MIA

Bettis has a 1.44 ERA through four starts, but his 4.32 FIP suggests he has not pitched nearly that well. He’s been helped by opponents posting a .217 BABIP, leading to a 1.08 WHIP that is well below his career WHIP of 1.45. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher either with just a 5.4 K/9 this season. All that being said, he gets two favorable matchups this week against the Padres and Marlins. He faced the Padres in his first start of the season as well, allowing two runs and recording four strikeouts in five innings. Both teams are in the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored, so Bettis is a viable streaming option this week who is still available in 56% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 5

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees: vs. MIN, at LAA

Don’t let Sabathia’s 2.70 ERA this season fool you, he’s not that type of pitcher anymore. His FIP through three starts sits at 6.01 and he has already given up three home runs in just 13.1 innings. He doesn’t pitch deep into games anymore and isn’t a strikeout pitcher with only a 7.3 K/9 last year. Both the Twins and the Angels have right-handed power bats that could prove troublesome for Sabathia, so it might be a good idea to stay away from starting him this week.

Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins: at NYY, vs. CIN

Odorizzi is another starter who has a deceivingly low ERA in the early going at 3.38 despite his 5.36 FIP. He had control issues last year with a 3.8 BB/9 and has carried those problems into 2018 with a 4.6 BB/9 through four starts. Home runs have been a problem for him as well, allowing 1.9 HR/9 last year. That’s not a recipe for success in his first start on the road against the powerful Yankees lineup. Facing the Reds in his second start will be a much easier task, but that first start against the Yankees could really put you in a hole right out of the gate.

Bryan Mitchell, San Diego Padres: at COL, vs. NYM

Talk about two rough matchups for Mitchell. He has to face the Rockies in Coors Field first, then he has to face a Mets offense that has the eighth-highest OBP (.333) in baseball. Mitchell walks way too many batters, recording 7.8 BB/9 through his first four starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff either with just a 5.4 K/9 for his career. If you are looking for a low owned player to stream this week, look elsewhere.