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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

With only four games making up the main evening slate in DFS, there are far fewer options to choose from than normal for your entry Thursday. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t end the night a winner. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Cole Hamels vs. Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $9,200
DraftKings = $10,400

To say Hamels has pitched well since joining the Cubs is an understatement. In his first four starts since being traded, Hamels has a 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and an 8.3 K/9. While that ERA is obviously unsustainable, his 2.40 FIP supports his improved performance. He really struggled at Globe Life Park in Arlington as a member of the Rangers, so it’s not all that surprising that the change of scenery has boosted his value. On a night with very limited pitching options, Hamels stands out as one of the top choices.

Tyler Glasnow vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $8,400

After spending most of this season in the Pirates bullpen, the Rays have done a nice job building Glasnow back up to start. His pitch count has increased in each of his four outings with the Rays, topping out at 94 pitches in his most recent start. He shouldn’t have any limitations going forward. He provides excellent strikeout upside with an 11.6 K/9 and he’s shown improved control with a 2.9 BB/9 since being traded. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (463) in baseball, leaving Glasnow with the potential to provide significant value at this cheap price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Freddie Freeman vs. Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,000

There are two stacks that stand out Thursday with the Braves being one of them. Hernandez has mostly pitched in relief this season with only five starts in his 26 appearances. He has struggled with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, overall. He doesn’t strike out many hitters, either, with a 6.2 K/9. With Freeman’s .401 OBP this year, expect him to be on base plenty of times in this game.

Joe Mauer vs. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,800

Cahill has done a great job for the Athletics this season, but most of his success has come at home, where he has a 0.85 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. However, he’s been hammered on the road with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Mauer doesn’t have much power upside, but he is batting .343 with a .410 OBP across his last 10 games.

Others to consider: J.T. Realmuto (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Kohl Stewart, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,900

The other stacking opportunity that stands out is the Athletics against Stewart. They have a .706 OPS at home, but their .804 OPS on the road is the highest in baseball. Stewart has pitched at both Double-A and Triple-A this season, recording a 4.47 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP combined across both levels. In two starts with the Twins, he’s allowed six runs and recorded only three strikeouts across seven innings. The switch-hitting Lowrie has a .370 wOBA against righties this year.

Ozzie Albies vs. Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,500

Albies has had a rough month of August by batting only .235 with one home run. After he slugged 14 home runs in his first 56 games this season, he has just seven homers across his last 66 contests. He has had better success against left-handed pitching this year, but Albies has a .517 slugging percentage on the road compared to .423 at home. He’s someone to consider with Hernandez on the mound, although Lowrie would be my first choice at second base.

Others to consider: Daniel Murphy

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Matt Chapman vs. Kohl Stewart, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,600

Chapman has shown an improved eye at the plate this year, reducing his strikeout rate from 28.3% in 2017 to 23.0% this season. He’s still hitting for plenty of power, too, with 17 home runs and 30 doubles across 407 at-bats. Chapman has actually hit better against right-handed pitchers (.378 wOBA) than he has lefties (.348 wOBA), so he could prove to be a tough out for Stewart.

Brian Anderson vs. Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,500

After an excellent start to his season, Newcomb has a 6.00 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP since July 1. He has an 11.3% walk rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate for the year, but he has a 12.6% walk rate and a 17.4% strikeout rate since his struggles began. Anderson could be worth considering in tournament play since he has a .349 wOBA against lefties and is 5-for-10 with two walks against Newcomb in his career.

Others to consider: Johan Camargo

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Javier Baez vs. Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,700

Baez has at least two hits in three straight games and has eight multi-hit performances so far in August. He’s made a case to be considered for the NL MVP award as he is batting .292 with 26 home runs, 92 RBI, and 20 steals. He has fairly similar numbers against both lefties and righties, so don’t shy away from using him Thursday just because he doesn’t have the platoon advantage against DeSclafani.

Jorge Polanco vs. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,900

Polanco quietly had a productive 2017 campaign with 13 home runs, 74 RBI and 13 steals across 488 at-bats. He didn’t play his first game this season until July due to suspension, but he’s provided the same sort of production with three home runs, 25 RBI and four steals in 173 at-bats. He has just a 34 wRC+ against lefties this year, but he’s been far more successful with a 137 wRC+ against righties.

Others to consider: Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/23/18

Khris Davis vs. Kohl Stewart, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $5,700

Davis has put the Athletics on his back as they make a push for the playoffs, hitting .313 with 18 home runs and 10 doubles since July 1. He has hit four home runs in his last four games and is one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball when he’s locked in like this. He’s pricey, but he also has one of the highest upsides of anyone playing Thursday due to this matchup against Stewart.

Max Kepler vs. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,900

Kepler has struggled to hit for average again this season, but he’s managed to hit 17 home runs and 26 doubles. He’s been terrible with a .197 average and a .640 OPS on the road, but he has a .275 average and a .886 OPS at home. He doesn’t cost much on either site and could provide value when you combine his success at home with Cahill’s struggles on the road.

Stephen Piscotty vs. Kohl Stewart, Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,900

Piscotty is coming off of a productive three-game series against the Rangers where he finished 6-for-13 with a home run and two doubles. He has already tied his career-high with 35 doubles this year and has chipped in 16 homers as well. He has similar numbers against both lefties and righties, making him one of the better cheap options if you are going with an Athletics stack.

Others to consider: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ender Inciarte

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

August special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

Tuesday brings a packed slate in the majors with all 15 games included in the main contests for DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Blake Snell vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $9,600
DraftKings = $11,500

The Rays have brought Snell back slowly since being activated from the DL. He’s been on a pitch count, but he threw 76 pitchers in his last start against the Yankees, so he should be close to full-go Tuesday. He’s having a spectacular season with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP across 23 starts. Luck has been somewhat on his side with opponents posting just a .233 BABIP against him, but his 13.5% swinging-strike rate has led to a career-high 10.1 K/9. The Royals have scored the fewest runs (459) in baseball, potentially setting up Snell for another dominant outing.

Tyler Anderson vs. San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $6,900

Anderson hasn’t been pitching at his best lately, allowing 21 runs over 20.1 innings in his last four starts. It’s no coincidence that three of those outings came on the road. Anderson has thrived pitching at Coors Field, posting a 3.47 ERA there compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road. He had similar splits last year with a 5.44 ERA on the road and a 4.14 ERA at home. The Padres struggle to score runs and have the second-most strikeouts (1,190) in the league, leaving Anderson with upside in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Jesus Aguilar vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $5,200

Aguilar had his worst month of the season in July, batting only .202 for the month. He’s righted the ship in August, batting .308 with a .446 OBP across 17 games. He’s finally received everyday playing time this year and he’s taken full advantage of his opportunity, batting .283 with 29 home runs. Romano has allowed 1.5 HR/9 this season, so Aguilar is a threat to go deep again in this contest.

Ji-Man Choi vs. Glenn Sparkman, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $3,800

Choi went 1-for-2 with two walks Monday to extend his current hitting streak to eight games. He’s shown some power over that stretch, as well, with two home runs and three doubles. Choi also has a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitchers overall, making him a viable option at this cheap price against Sparkman and his 1.55 WHIP.

Others to consider: Matt Olson (first base) and Buster Posey (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Travis Shaw vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,600

Shaw cashed in a prime matchup against Homer Bailey on Monday, finishing the game 1-for-3 with a home run. Shaw’s only batting .247 this season, but he now has 25 homers and is well on his way to hitting at least 30 for the second straight season. With his .376 wOBA against righties, he’s another Brewer to target for your lineup.

Jonathan Villar vs. Sam Gaviglio, Toronto Blue Jays
Stadium – Rogers Centre
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,800

When the Brewers loaded up in their infield to make a run at the playoffs, Villar was jettisoned to the Orioles. The Orioles found themselves extremely thin in their infield after trading away Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, leaving Villar with a clear path to an everyday role. He hasn’t exactly excelled, but he is hitting .269 with a .347 OBP since joining the Orioles. He has plenty of speed and swiped two bases on Monday. Gaviglio allows a lot of baserunners with his 1.46 WHIP and Blue Jays’ catcher Danny Jansen has allowed nine stolen bases in six games since being called up from the minors, leaving Villar as an intriguing option.

Others to consider: Jeff McNeil and Joey Wendle

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,700

Erlin has pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but he’s started in each of his last three outings. He has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.12 FIP overall this year, but he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal with just a 6.7 K/9 for his career. Arenado has a staggering 231 wRC+ against lefties this year, so don’t hesitate to pay up for his services.

Evan Longoria vs. Steven Matz, New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,500

Longoria’s been limited to 90 games due to injuries in his first season with the Giants and he hasn’t played well when healthy, posting a .282 OBP and a .699 OPS. Most of his struggles have come against righties, who he has a .268 wOBA against. He’s had much more success versus lefties, though, with a .359 wOBA.

Others to consider: Mike Moustakas and Matt Chapman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Trevor Story vs. Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,800

Story hasn’t exactly struggled on the road this season with a .275 average and a .780 OPS. However, he’s been out of this world hitting in Coors Field with a .316 average and a 1.048 OPS. Considering he also has a .431 wOBA against left-handed pitchers and both he and Arenado could do plenty of damage Tuesday.

Marcus Semien vs. Ariel Jurado, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,200

Jurado’s first taste of action in the majors has not gone well. He’s only made five starts, but he has a 6.41 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Just as concerning is that he only has 11 strikeouts across 26.2 innings. He only had a 5.1 K/9 at Double-A this season before being recalled, so don’t expect him to suddenly start striking out a lot of hitters.  Semien could provide value at this cheap price, especially since he is hitting .405 with three home runs and three doubles over his last nine games.

Others to consider: Xander Bogaerts and Amed Rosario

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 8/21/18

Khris Davis vs. Ariel Jurado, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $5,100

Here we go again. Davis went deep Monday after hitting two home runs Sunday. When he’s hot, he can hit home runs in bunches. He’s slugged 37 homers this season and while his excellent power numbers are nothing new, his .261 batting average would be his highest mark in any season where he played at least 100 games.

Lorenzo Cain vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,600

Cain doesn’t have much home run upside, but he enters Tuesday with a .304 average and a .396 OBP. He’s already swiped 24 bases, three of which have come across his last four games. Not only does Romano have a hard time keeping hitters inside the park, but he’s had difficulty keeping men off base, in general, with a 1.45 WHIP.

Stephen Piscotty vs. Ariel Jurado, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $2,100
DraftKings = $3,500

Piscotty is starting to heat up again as he is 10-for-33 (.303) with a home run and five doubles over his last eight games. His .255 batting average this season doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s provided power with 16 homers and 34 doubles. He has almost even splits versus lefties and righties this year, so he might be worth the risk at this very cheap price even though he doesn’t have the platoon advantage facing Jurado.

Others to consider: A.J. Pollock and Christian Yelich

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

There are only four games that make up the main evening slate in DFS, leaving far fewer options to choose from than normal. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

David Price vs. Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $9,500

Price had a 3.66 ERA entering July, but a horrible start against the Yankees where he allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings did serious damage to his numbers. He has a 4.17 ERA and a 4.29 FIP overall, which would be his highest marks since his first season as a starter in 2009 with the Rays. His swinging-strike rate is down significantly at 8.9%, but he’s still managed to record a 9.0 K/9. This could be a start to help pad his stats as the Orioles have scored the second-fewest runs (367) in baseball. In his previous outing against them this season, Price allowed two runs and recorded eight strikeouts over nine innings.

James Shields vs. Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,000

On a night with such a limited slate, there aren’t a lot of great cheap options for starting pitchers. Shields’ 4.26 ERA and 4.38 FIP don’t jump off the page, but that’s a significant improvement from last season. Not only has he done a better job limiting baserunners with a 1.26 WHIP, but he also cut down his 2.1 HR/9 last year to 1.0 HR/9 this season. His upside isn’t great due to his 6.6 K/9, but he might still be worth the risk in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

Jose Abreu vs. Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,600

Abreu has batted at least .290 with 25 home runs in each of his first four seasons, but he’s got a ways to go if he is going to accomplish both feats in 2018. His 14 home runs are respectable, but his batting average sits at just .253. One reason for his struggles is likely his .283 BABIP, which is significantly lower than his .328 career mark. He does still have a .363 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, making him a viable option at such a reduced price.

Jonathan Lucroy vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,400
DraftKings = $2,800

Lucroy had a productive first two games of this series, hitting 3-for-8 with a double, a home run and two walks. He hasn’t been much of an offensive threat this year batting .243 with two homers, but his wOBA is over 30 points higher against lefties than it is against righties. Perez has been horrible with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP, leaving Lucroy as someone worth considering based on the relief he can also provide to your budget.

Others to consider: Mitch Moreland (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

Rougned Odor vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,300

With a double in Tuesday’s contest, Odor extended his hitting streak to six games. He’s been hot for a much longer stretch than that, though, as he is 28-for-83 (.337) across his last 23 games. Jackson has a 2.93 ERA through his first five starts, but his 4.23 FIP and crazy-low .198 opponents’ BABIP indicate he’s had plenty of luck on his side. Continue to ride Odor’s hot bat.

Jed Lowrie vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,000

Lowrie played a key role in Tuesday’s wild come from behind victory, finishing the game 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBI. The performance broke his 0-for-18 streak that saw his batting average drop 13 points. He did still draw four walks during that stretch and has a .358 OBP that would be one of the highest marks of his career. He’ll bat from the right side of the plate against Perez, which is good news considering Perez has allowed a .467 wOBA to righties this year.

Others to consider: Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

Alex Bregman vs. Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $5,500

Bregman is on a prolonged stretch of excellent hitting as he is 55-for-177 (.311) with 15 doubles and 16 home runs since June 1. He has also shown an excellent eye at the plate this entire season, drawing 59 walks and striking out only 55 times. Although he doesn’t get the platoon advantage versus Gray, he hasn’t exactly struggled against righties with a .380 wOBA.

Matt Chapman vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,100

With Perez on the mound for the Rangers, the Athletics are going to be a very popular stack. As we continue to seek out their right-handed bats, Chapman weighs in as a great option on both sites based on his price. His home run in Monday’s contest was his first since June 10, but he is 18-for-55 (.327) with six doubles over his last 14 games.

Others to consider: Adrian Beltre

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

Xander Bogaerts vs. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $5,200

Bogaerts might not get a lot of headlines in a stacked lineup with stars like Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, but he’s having a great season. His power numbers are up significantly with a .526 slugging percentage that is over 100 points higher than his career mark. His batting average hasn’t suffered any either at .280. He actually has a higher wOBA against righties (.378) than he does lefties (.334) as well.

Elvis Andrus vs. Edwin Jackson, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,800

Andrus has homered in back-to-back contests and is 9-for-22 (.409) during his current six-game hitting streak. His numbers are down overall, but he’s certainly enjoyed hitting at home with a .348 average and all four of his home runs coming there this season. If you don’t want to pay up for Bogaerts, Andrus could provide significant value against the underwhelming Jackson.

Others to consider: Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/25/18

Khris Davis vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $5,300

Davis was one of the few hitters left out of the offensive explosion Tuesday, but then he made his mark by hitting a three-run homer in extra innings. He’s now homered in three straight games, bringing his total to 25 for the season. With Perez’s struggles against right-handed hitters already detailed, Davis is one of the premier outfield options Wednesday.

Stephen Piscotty vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200

Piscotty showed a lot of promise with the Cardinals in 2016 but had a disappointing 2017 campaign before being traded to the Athletics. He’s doing his best to show last season was a fluke, batting .263 with 14 home runs and 27 doubles in 93 games. Most of his production has come recently as well since he has gone 49-for-163 (.301) with 11 home runs since June 1.

Mark Canha vs. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,600

Yes, load up with Athletics for your outfield. Canha didn’t miss out on the party Tuesday, finishing 1-for-3 with a home run, two walks and three runs scored. He’ll face his third left-handed starting pitcher of the series, which is right in his wheelhouse since he has a .432 wOBA against lefties this year.

Others to consider: J.D. Martinez and Joey Gallo

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

The Outfield position has a lot of high-end talent this year with five players at the position arguably ranked inside the top ten for fantasy baseball. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some outfielders who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Entering 2017, Trout had played in at least 157 games in four straight seasons. He averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 113 runs scored and 23 steals per season during that stretch. Not only that, but he batted at least .299 three times. He was limited to just 114 games last year due to injury, but he still batted .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Those are crazy counting stats in such a limited time frame. He’s only getting better with his pitch selection, lowering his strikeout percentage while also increasing his walk percentage in four straight seasons. He’s not just the best outfielder in fantasy baseball either as I rank him number one overall.

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon had a monster season in 2017, batting .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored, 14 steals and a .399 OBP. He led the majors in hits, runs scored, triples and total bases and was second in batting average only to Jose Altuve. To put his season into perspective, only four players had a higher slugging percentage last year than Blackmon. They were J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. He did have extreme home and road splits, batting .391 with 24 home runs at Coors Field compared to .276 with 13 homers on the road. It’s going to be tough for him to so many home runs again this year, but he did have 29 homers and 82 RBI in 2016. His ability to hit for power, a high average and steal bases makes him one of the most valuable options in fantasy baseball.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Betts established himself as an elite fantasy asset in 2016, hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals. His counting stats were again stellar in 2017, but his batting average dropped to just .264. He had never batted below .291 in a season in the majors, leaving his owners who paid a lofty price for him on draft day somewhat disappointed with his overall production. However, his strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. With a higher BABIP likely on tap for 2018, expect Betts to rebound with his batting average. The addition of Martinez also adds a power dimension that the Red Sox lineup was sorely lacking last year, which should help Betts as well. Get ready for a big season.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Of all the outfielders not named Mike Trout, Harper might have the highest upside. He showed his immense potential in 2015, batting .330 with 42 home runs, 99 RBI and 118 runs scored on his way to winning the National League MVP. The reason why Harper is fourth on this list though is due to injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career. He has only played at least 147 games twice in his career, one of which was that stellar 2015 campaign. He has also batted above .300 only twice in six seasons. It can be frustrating to own him, but you shouldn’t be disappointed if he ends up being your first round pick. If everything falls right, he could end up finishing in the top three overall in fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As a testament to how deep the outfield position is, a guy who had 59 home runs and 132 RBI last season if fifth on this list. Stanton was unlike many of the games elite home run hitters too, managing to hit .281 and record a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton as well, limiting him to 123 games or less in four of the last six years. He mashes when he’s on the field though. The 2015 season might be the perfect example as he hit 27 home runs in just 74 games. Not only does he move to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he’ll also be part of one of the most potent lineups in the league. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. That’s a big if though, which is why he’s fifth on this list.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

There is no question that Hamilton is one of the premier base stealers in the league, recording at least 56 steals in four straight seasons. The problem is, that’s about all he does well. For his career, he is only batting .248 with a paltry .298 OBP. He’s never scored more than 85 runs in a season and has 17 career home runs. While steals are hard to find, it’s important to remember that it’s only one category. He’ll drag you down just about everywhere else, making it very hard to justify his current ADP in the NFBC of 61.85.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

McCutchen will be playing for someone other than the Pirates for the first time in his career and will be a key part of what the Giants hope is a vastly improved lineup. McCutchen was once an elite fantasy option, hitting at least 20 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases each season from 2011 through 2013. His power numbers are still there, hitting at least 23 homers in four straight years. He’s not the threat that he once was on the basepaths though, stealing a total of 28 bases in the last three seasons. The problem is if he’s not going to steal bases and isn’t a .300 hitter anymore, the ability to hit 25 home runs isn’t nearly as valuable as it used to be. His current ADP is 87.06, ahead of players who could provide similar production like Ryan Braun (113.24) and Adam Jones (146.55). Make sure you don’t overpay for McCutchen.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte played in a career-high 157 games last year, making his first All-Star team. He’s always hit for a high average, batting .295 for his career.  With at least 21 steals in two of the last three seasons, he can certainly provide value on the basepaths. However, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power, recording just 11 home runs last season. He had never hit more than six home runs in a year entering 2017. He also doesn’t drive in many runs, finishing with just 57 RBI last year. His current ADP of 120.21 seems awfully high for a player of his skillset. Adam Eaton is a reasonable comp in my eyes and his ADP is only 152.76. Buyer beware of Inciarte at his current price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is loaded. They have premier hitters in Stanton, Judge, and Gary Sanchez and have excellent depth when you add in the likes of Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Gardner is expected to be the Yankees leadoff hitter again this season, which should leave him with a ton of opportunities to score runs. He has scored at least 90 runs three times in his career, but has the potential to score at least 100 runs for the first time this year. He also brings a nice combination of speed and power, hitting at least 16 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases in three of the last four years. Although it’s not flashy, he has a valuable .264 career batting average as well. His current ADP is 180.67, leaving him with plenty of value on draft day.

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics

Piscotty was a trendy pick to be a breakout player last year after batting .273 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs scored in 2016. He was a major disappointment though, batting just .235 with nine home runs and 39 RBI in 107 games. He gets a fresh start as a member of the Athletics and shouldn’t be someone you sleep on this season. Batting average was never an area of concern for him in the minors, hitting .287 over 405 games. He’s still just 27 years old and will be part of an Athletics lineup that has a lot of power. His current ADP is 292.2, which is a steal considering his upside.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are rebuilding, trading away some key players this offseason. They especially have holes to fill in their outfield after trading both Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. Their outfield was projected to be Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and Denard Span after those moves, but then they signed Carlos Gomez. Gomez is the only right-handed hitter in the bunch, so he could end up with plenty of at-bats. Smith could work his way into regular playing time still, which would give him a chance to showcase his speed. He played just 81 games last year, but still stole 16 bases. He batted .270 as well, which helps considering he provides no power. His value is mostly limited to stolen bases, but he could steal somewhere between 30 and 40 bases under the right circumstances. With a current ADP of 351.12, Smith could be a very cheap source of steals. I’d much rather get him towards the end of a draft than spend a high pick on Hamilton.