DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for July 07, 2017
*Chris Durell*
DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for July 07, 2017
With one early and one late afternoon game on Friday, we will turn our attention to the 13-game main slate and look at a couple of the top pitchers and stacks.
Starting Pitchers
Max Scherzer
Opponent – vs. ATL
Park – Nationals Park(Neutral)
Vegas Favorite (WSH -245)
Vegas Total (8.0)
First of all, there is much less chance of rain tonight so we shouldn’t have to deal with the Nats brass making any horrible weather decisions. For cash games, I don’t think there is any other way to go than Max Scherzer tonight who has a higher floor and almost more upside than any other pitcher in baseball this season(honorable mention to Kershaw & Sale). In my opinion, Scherzer is the clear CY Young in the national League at this point, at least from a fantasy perspective. Sure, Kershaw has a sparkling 13-2 record but Scherzer helps you where you need it most in the strikeout department. He is second in the entire MLB(qualified starters) with a 12.2 K/9 rate and is tied with Sale with a ridiculous 16.2% swinging strike rate. On paper the Braves don’t strikeout a ton but Gio was able to rack a K per inning last night so Scherzer should have no issues.
Jordan Montgomery
Opponent – vs. MIL
Park – Yankee Stadium(Hitters Park)
Vegas Favorite (-175)
Vegas Total (11.0)
For tournaments on DraftKings where you want to access Scherzer’s upside without totally handicapping your bats, take a close look at Jordan Montgomery tonight. There is definitely risk involved as the game has a huge 11 total but to be fair the majority of it is coming on the Yankee side. It has been a good season for the rookie and even better lately as he has gone at least five innings in six straight starts since the start of June with a 2.95 ERA and 8.6 K/9 rate. I believe he can even afford to give up a few earned runs and still hit value tonight as the Brewers boost his K upside as they strike out 26.1% of the time vs. left-handed pitching.
Stack of the Night
New York Yankees vs. Junior Guerra(MIL)
The other reason I like Montgomery so much tonight is the fact he gets a huge boost in win potential thanks to the potent Yankee offense. They are one of two teams(Rockies) projected to score north of six runs tonight and they get an elite matchup to do it. Junior Guerra has been awful lately walking over 6.5 batters per nine and has a 7.27 ERA over his last five starts. He is also giving up home runs at high rate(23.1% HR/FB). Combine the fact that the wind is projected to blow out to left field and Guerra has struggled more vs. right-handed batter and you have a very high upside stack that could be a tick lower owned than the Rockies.
Top Players to Stack – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius
Baltimore Orioles vs. Felix Jorge(MIN)
My favorite stack of the night when using Scherzer is the Orioles with their terrific values at the top of the lineup. They also get a pretty good matchup tonight vs. rookie Felix Jorge making his second major league start after jumping straight from Double-A last week. Normally when we see this jump the pitcher has dominated making a trip to Triple-A meaningless. That is not the case for Jorge despite his 8-1 record in the minors this season. He also had a respectable 3.26 ERA and 3.43 xFIP but only struck out 6.4 batters per nine while giving up a 15% HR/FB rate. He won his first start going five innings but only struck out two and gave up seven hits and three earned runs but was back by an 11 run offensive output. I fully expect similar troubles in his second start vs. a powerful O’s team.
Top Players to Stack – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop