MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/24/18

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

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STARTING PITCHERS

James Paxton vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $9,300
DraftKings = $10,200

Paxton left in the first inning of his last start due to lower-back stiffness. His bullpen session went well Saturday and he is expected to be activated from the DL to start Tuesday. He wasn’t even sidelined two weeks, so he’s unlikely to be on any sort of a pitch count. Although his ERA isn’t as good as last year, he’s pitched well with a 3.70 ERA that is supported by a 3.16 FIP. His 1.09 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 would also be the best marks of his career. The Giants are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and only have a .690 OPS against left-handed pitching, so look for Paxton to have a successful return.

Carlos Rodon vs. Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,300

Rodon has a 3.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through seven starts, which is impressive considering four of those starts came against the Red Sox, the Astros, and the Indians. He’s been somewhat lucky, though, as he has a 5.04 FIP and opponents have just a .225 BABIP against him. He has upside with a 9.0 K/9 for his career, so he can be a viable option in tournament play in the right matchup. That might be the case Tuesday considering the Angels have the fourth-lowest OPS against lefties (.661) in baseball.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Anthony Rizzo vs. Clay Buchholz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,500

Rizzo had a lackluster first half, but he’s 16-for-31 (.516) with eight walks in his last nine games. He hasn’t homered during that stretch, but he did record five doubles and a triple. With a career .373 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, look for Rizzo to keep his hot streak going against Buchholz, who has been lucky so far with opponents posting just a .236 BABIP against him.

Yadier Molina vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,300

Bailey has been on the DL since the end of May, but he is expected to take the mound Tuesday. He was terrible before suffering a knee injury, posting a 6.68 ERA and a 6.29 FIP across 12 starts. His bloated 1.69 WHIP was a big reason why he struggled and he doesn’t miss many bats with a 5.5 K/9. He hasn’t finished with an ERA below 5.56 or a WHIP below 1.69 since 2014, leaving the Cardinals as one of the premier stacks Tuesday. Molina has owned Bailey in his career, hitting 18-for-44 (.409) with three home runs.

Others to consider: Matt Adams (first base) and Jose Martinez (first base)

SECOND BASE

Rougned Odor vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Odor got off to a horrible start this year, but he is 27-for-79 (.342) with five home runs across his last 22 games. His batting average is up to .259 overall as a result and he also has a .331 OBP, which would be the highest mark of his career. Montas allows a lot of baserunners with a 1.39 WHIP and he doesn’t record many strikeouts, either, with a 7.8% swinging-strike rate and a 5.6 K/9.

Daniel Murphy vs. Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,100

Murphy came through with a home run Monday, only his second long ball of the season. However, he is now 13-for-30 (.433) in his last 10 games. Guerra’s wOBA against lefties is almost 40 points higher than it is against righties this season, leaving Murphy as a viable cheaper option on both sites.

Others to consider: Brian Dozier and Jed Lowrie

THIRD BASE

Matt Carpenter vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,400

Carpenter should be the centerpiece of any stack against Bailey. He had two more hits Monday and is currently on an eight-game hitting streak that has seen him hit eight home runs. Not only does he have a .402 wOBA against righties this season, but he is 19-for-39 (.497) in his career against Bailey.

Matt Chapman vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,900

Chapman burst onto the scene with 14 homers in 84 games last year, but he batted only .234 in the process. He has 11 home runs through 85 games this season, but his batting average is also much improved at .261. A big reason for his improvement is that he has dropped his strikeout rate by five percentage points. Minor has held lefties to a .292 wOBA, but righties have had much more success against him with a .346 wOBA.

Others to consider: Miguel Andujar and Adrian Beltre

SHORTSTOP

Elvis Andrus vs. Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,000

Not only did Andrus extend his hitting streak to five games Monday, but he also hit his third home run of the season. He’s still got a big hole to climb out of in terms of his batting average and home run total, but his .330 OBP isn’t far off from his .337 mark last year. With Montas’ inability to keep runners off base, Andrus could be in line for another productive game.

Paul DeJong vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $4,000

Get as many Cardinals hitters into your lineup as you can. DeJong is batting just .218 since he returned from the DL, but he’s also been the victim of a .250 BABIP. He has hit for a lot of power and shown even splits against righties and lefties during his brief career in the majors, so this matchup against Baily could be just what he needs to get back on track.

Others to consider: Jean Segura and Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

Giancarlo Stanton vs. Yonny Chirinos, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,700

Stanton went 4-for-4 with a walk Monday to raise his batting average to .285 for the season, which is actually higher than his .281 mark last year. A lot was made of his struggles to start his career with the Yankees, but Stanton has put those fears to rest and is batting .378 in July. His strikeout rate is still high at 30.5%, but he can go on power streaks like few others can around baseball.

Khris Davis vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $5,100

Look out, here comes Davis. After a lengthy power drought, he has three homers in his last two games. He finished 3-for-6 Monday and looks primed for a big series in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington against a horrid Rangers pitching staff. Minor has allowed 16 home runs this season, 14 of which have come against right-handed batters.

Mark Canha vs. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Canha didn’t play Sunday due to hamstring cramps, but he returned Monday and finished 2-for-5 with a double. He’s already played more games for the Athletics this season than he did the last two years combined and is usually a cheap option to target versus lefties since he has a 170 wRC+ against them.

Others to consider: Shin-Soo Choo and Marcell Ozuna