*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*
2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop
There have been some elite fantasy options at shortstop in the last decade, but the position hasn’t always had great depth. That’s not an issue in 2018 as there are plenty of valuable options available. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some shortstops who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.
The Top Three
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Turner is a stolen base machine. Despite playing only 98 games due to injury last year, he still stole 46 bases. He has only played 198 career games in the majors but already has 81 steals. He also hit .284 last year and should be an asset in batting average again for 2018. Unlike some of the other elite base stealers though, Turner won’t kill you in the power department. In his last 171 games, he has 24 home runs. He’s going to hit at the top of one of the best lineups in baseball, further increasing his already lofty value. Not only is he the best fantasy shortstop, but he should finish in the top-five of fantasy in general if he can stay healthy.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Correa took a big leap forward in the power department in 2017, hitting 24 home runs with a .550 slugging percentage. He posted a 39.5% hard hit percentage, helping to lead to a career-high .315 batting average. There really aren’t any negative things you can say about Correa’s game. He only had a 19.1% strikeout percentage compared to an 11% walk percentage and 40.7% of the balls he put in play were hit to center field. He did only steal two bases in 109 games, but you shouldn’t be expecting significant steals from him anyways as he only had 13 in 2016. You will likely have to use a second-round pick to get him depending on the size of your league, but he will be worth it.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Lindor thrived in his first full season in the majors in 2016, hitting .301 with 15 home runs, 78 RBI, 19 steals and 99 runs scored. Not profiled to be a big power hitter, Lindor was just that in 2017, slugging 33 round trippers. He also had 44 doubles, resulting in a .505 slugging percentage. His batting average did drop to .273, but he still stole 15 bases. His strikeout and walk percentages were the same in both 2016 and 2017, but he posted by far his best hard hit percentage in 2017 at 35.2%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a slight decrease in home runs this year, but 25 home runs, 15 steals, and a .280 average are all reasonable expectations. If you miss out on Turner or Correa, Lindor is an excellent consolation prize.
Overvalued Players
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seager has quickly become an excellent player for the Dodgers, recording at least 22 home runs and 77 RBI in both of his first two full seasons in the majors. He hit .295 with a .375 OBP last year, showing he can provide fantasy owners with both power numbers and batting average. With a career 42.1% hard hit percentage, he should be able to consistently hit for a high average as well. There isn’t really anything negative to say about Seager other than he doesn’t steal bases. However, his current ADP in the NFBC is 38.75. Players that are being selected well after Seager include Nelson Cruz (55.87), Christian Yelich (59.33) and Daniel Murphy (69.44). Shortstop is not a shallow position, so don’t feel forced to draft Seager so early.
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season during the first eight years of his career, Andrus broke out with 20 homers in 2017. He also had 44 doubles, leading to a career-high .471 slugging percentage. He batted .297 with 88 RBI, 100 runs scored and 25 steals as well, providing one of the better all-around campaigns in the league. The increased power numbers were likely because of a change in his approach at the plate. He had a career-low 5.5% walk percentage and pulled a career-high 44.8% of the balls he put in play. For comparison, his pull percentage for his career is 37.2%. He should still be able to provide plenty of value in batting average and stolen bases, but even with his changed approach at the plate, 20 homers will be tough to duplicate. His current ADP is 58.36, which is clearly banking on him to do just that. I’d pass on him at that price.
Undervalued Players
Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers
Arcia struggled in his brief appearance in the majors in 2016, batting only .219 with four home runs in 55 games. He settled in nicely in 2017 though, batting .277 with 15 home runs, 53 RBI, and 14 steals. He had a career .282 average in the minor leagues, so his performance last year is closer to what you should expect from him moving forward. His OBP has never been particularly high and he swung at 38.7% of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone last year, which is an area where he’ll need to improve. However, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit .270 with 15 home runs and 15 steals this season. With a current ADP of 186.36, that type of production would be a bargain.
Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
Russell had big expectations heading into last year after providing 21 home runs and 95 RBI in 2016. He couldn’t live up to the hype though, with injuries limiting him to just 110 games. He also dealt with an off-the-field issue which could have impacted his performance. The end result was only 12 home runs, 43 RBI, and a .239 average. Don’t forget, Russell is still only 24 years old. He still has excellent potential and while he might not hit for a high average, his power numbers could return with a healthy season. The once hot fantasy commodity now has an ADP of 259.37. I wouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on him that low in your draft.
