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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There are 15 games in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, but many of them have afternoon starts. As a result, there is plenty of action for both the day and evening slates in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

James Paxton vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $10,400

Injuries limited Paxton to only 136 innings in 2017, but he pitched well when healthy, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. He allowed just 0.6 HR/9, which was on par with his career mark of 0.7 HR/9. Although he saw a significant increase in strikeouts, his control didn’t suffer, finishing with a 2.4 BB/9. Tuesday brings an excellent matchup against the Royals, who have scored the fewest runs (29) in the league so far this year. Many of their best hitters are left-handed as well, which is great for Paxton since he allowed a .210 wOBA to lefties last year. If you are playing the day slate, Paxton could be in line for a big performance.

Zack Wheeler vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $7,500

Once one of the prized young pitchers in the Mets organization, injuries have kept Wheeler from fulfilling his potential. He only pitched 86.1 innings in 2017 but struggled with a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He had significant control issues, allowing 4.2 BB/9. Luck wasn’t exactly on his side either with opponents posting a .332 BABIP. Wheeler will be making his first start of the season for the Mets on Wednesday and faces a Marlins lineup that is a shell of itself from last year. To no surprise, they have struggled this season, batting just .229 with only five total home runs. Wheeler is certainly a risky play, but he has upside at this cheap price and is worth considering in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Freddie Freeman vs. A.J Cole, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $5,200

Freeman had a rough couple of games against Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but he’ll get a much easier matchup against Cole on Wednesday. Cole had a horrendous first start of the season against these same Braves, allowing 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings. Freeman took Cole deep in that game, finishing 2-for-3 with four RBI and two walks overall. Freeman destroyed righties with a .422 wOBA in 2017, making him an excellent option to consider for your entry.

Willson Contreras vs. Steven Brault, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,300

Contreras already has four multi-hit games this season, leaving him with a .333 average in the early going. He won’t be able to sustain his .448 BABIP, but his 41.4% hard-hit rate is encouraging. He gets a favorable matchup against the left-handed Brault on Wednesday after posting a 137 wRC+ against lefties in 2017.

Others to consider: Albert Pujols (first base) and Wilmer Flores (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Ozzie Albies vs. A.J. Cole, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,800

Albies is not off to the best start this season, batting .250 with no walks and nine strikeouts. He does have just a .250 BABIP, so he should improve in that area as the season progresses. He also had a .354 OBP in 2017, so he’s not going to keep this BB:K ratio up either. Like Freeman, he excelled in his first matchup against Cole this season, finishing 3-for-5 with one double, one RBI and three runs scored. Don’t hesitate to add him to your entry Wednesday.

Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Jarlin Garcia, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,200

Cabrera came through with a big performance facing left-hander Caleb Smith on Wednesday, hitting a home run off him in the fourth inning. The switch-hitting Cabrera hit a home run against a righty later in the game as well and now has three home runs in his last three games. He had a wOBA of at least .356 against lefties in both of the last two seasons and he’ll get to face another one in Garcia on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Zack Cozart and Scooter Gennett

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Travis Shaw vs. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Busch Stadium
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,800

A notoriously fast starter, Shaw is doing it again in 2018, batting .292 with one home run and five doubles. He is also a much better hitter against righties, posting a .373 wOBA against them in 2017 compared to .326 against lefties. Wainwright was once one of the best pitchers in the National League, but he hasn’t been the same since injuring his Achilles and missing most of the 2015 season. In two seasons since, he has posted an ERA of at least 4.62 and a WHIP of at least 1.40 both times. Shaw has a good chance of extending his hot start in this game.

Matt Duffy vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,300

The Rays made some significant changes to their roster this winter and appear to be in the middle of another rebuilding process, especially with their lineup. Duffy is usually going to hit in the top-half of their order, giving him appeal in DFS based on the extra at-bats. He’ll face the struggling Shields on Wednesday who clearly doesn’t have overpowering stuff, recording just one strikeout in 11 innings this season.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Matt Carpenter

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Jean Segura vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Duffy was shelled in his last start against the White Sox, allowing five runs and three home runs in only four innings. Duffy is dominant against left-handed hitters, holding them to a wOBA of .201 or lower in back-to-back seasons. Righties have fared much better though, posting wOBA’s of .325 and .329 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Segura hit lefties very well last year with a .353 wOBA, making him a viable option to consider Wednesday.

Andrelton Simmons vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,500

Simmons hit his first home run of the season Tuesday and recorded his sixth multi-hit game. Although he’s better known for his stellar defense, he has batted at least .27 8 in both of the last two years. Wednesday brings a matchup against Moore who isn’t much more than a back-of-the-rotation starter at this point in his career. He’s off to a bad start this year too, allowing nine earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Mike Trout vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,700

Trout is hitting just .245 this season, but his BABIP is an unusually low .229. He’s still hitting for plenty of power with four home runs and three doubles already. Neither handed pitchers usually give Trout problems, so it’s no surprise that he finished with a 147 wRC+ against lefties in 2017. With Moore’s struggles, it might not be a bad idea to pay up to get Trout into your entry.

Justin Upton vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,700

Upton has done a great job of driving in runs this season, already recording 10 RBI in 12 games. With Zack Cozart and Trout hitting in front of him, this should be a trend that continues throughout the season. He’s another Angels’ righty who crushes left-handed pitching, posting a 201 wRC+ against them in 2017.

Curtis Granderson vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park a Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,400

Granderson provides the Blue Jays with an important left-handed hitter in an outfield that consists of righties Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk and Steve Pearce. Granderson isn’t the hitter that he was in his prime, but he still hits right-handers well, posting a wOBA of at least .343 against them in each of the last three seasons. If you are looking for a cheaper outfield option to fill out your lineup, Granderson could provide upside against the inconsistent Gausman.

Others to consider: Yoenis Cespedes and Preston Tucker

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

As long as the weather cooperates, there are plenty of MLB games on the schedule today with 28 teams in action. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Chris Sale vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $11,400
DraftKings = $12,900

Sale picked up where he left off last year with his first start of 2018, pitching six shutout innings and recording nine strikeouts against the Rays. Sale is one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. The Marlins tore down their team over the winter and while they have had a couple of nice offensive showings already this season, facing Sale is a whole different story. Don’t hesitate to pay up to get Sale into your lineup.

Chase Anderson vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $10,100

Anderson had a breakout campaign for the Brewers last year, posting a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. His FIP was 3.58 and opponents did have just a .268 BABIP, so he could be in line for some regression this season, but likely not one that significant. He had control issues by allowing three walks in his first start of the season against the Padres, but by allowing just one hit and striking out eight batters, he did not allow an earned run. He’ll get a tougher opponent in the Cardinals on Tuesday, but he can still provide value at this reasonable price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Freddie Freeman vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Freeman continues to be an on-base machine for the Braves as he already has eight walks in four games this season. He’s done damage as well, recording a home run and five RBI so far. He’ll face a right-hander in Cole on Tuesday, which is good news considering Freeman dominated righties last year with a .422 wOBA. Cole also allowed a .414 wOBA to lefties last year, so this could be the perfect storm for Freeman.

Willson Contreras vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Contreras is off to a slow start this year, hitting 4-for-21 (.190) with just one RBI. Tuesday brings a favorable matchup though against Reed, who had a 5.09 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 17.2 innings for the Reds last year. He did make 10 starts for the Reds in 2016, but he was even worse with a 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Contreras had a .386 wOBA against lefties last year, so it might be worth taking a chance that Tuesday is his first breakout game of the season.

Others to consider: Joey Gallo (first base) and Brian McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Ozzie Albies vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,600

Albies is not off to a great start this season either, recording only two hits in his first four games. He does have a home run, two RBI and three runs scored, helping to salvage some of his lines. The Nationals have a great starting rotation, but he’ll get to face one of their weaker links in Cole on Tuesday. Cole had a 3.81 ERA last year, but his 5.20 FIP suggests that should have been much higher. He also has problems keeping runners off base with a career 1.45 WHIP.

Javier Baez vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,000

Baez only has two hits through the first five games of the season and has struck out five times while drawing just one walk. He struck out 144 times in 145 games last year and had just a .317 OBP, so his starts in those departments aren’t all that surprising. He batted .315 with nine home runs against lefties last year though, making him possibly worth the risk for your lineup Tuesday at this price.

Others to consider: Whit Merrifield and Rougned Odor

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Anthony Rendon vs. Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,300

The Nationals have a potent lineup and Rendon gets the benefit of hitting between Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper on most nights. Teheran will have a tough task ahead of him, especially considering he had a 5.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home last season. He wasn’t any better in his first start at home in 2018 against the Phillies, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings on Opening Day. The Nationals could put up a crooked number Tuesday with Rendon right in the middle of the action.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Jakob Junis (Kansas City Royals)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = NA

The Tigers are rebuilding and Candelario is considered one of the important parts of their future. He played well in 27 games with the Tigers last year, hitting .330 with a .406 OBP. While he likely can’t keep that up in 2018, he did post a .270 average and .350 OBP during his career in the minors. He’ll bat second and from the left side of the plate against Junis on Tuesday, who allowed lefties to bat .274 against him in 2017 compared to righties batting just .246. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Xander Bogaerts vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,400

Bogaerts is red hot to start the season, recording at least two hits in four of his first five games. He’s hit for power as well with one home run and five doubles. He’ll face the default ace for the Marlins in Urena on Tuesday, who allowed five runs in four innings against the Cubs on Opening Day. Urena has a career FIP of 5.07, so Bogaerts could play a big role in a potential offensive explosion for the Red Sox in this game.

Alcides Escobar vs. Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,200
DraftKings = NA

Escobar recorded his first hits of the season Monday against the Tigers, going 2-for-3 with a double, triple and a run scored. He only hits eighth in the Royals lineup, which hurts his value in DFS based on the limited amount of at-bats he gets batting that low in the order. However, he gets a favorable matchup against Boyd, who allowed a .357 wOBA against righties last year compared to just .313 against lefties. Escobar is very cheap and could allow you to add a couple of big sluggers to your entry with the savings he will provide. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Elvis Andrus

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Bryce Harper vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,300

Harper is off to a torrid start this season, batting .417 with a .550 OBP, three home runs and seven RBI. Talent has never been the question with Harper as he usually produces when he’s healthy.  He has also owned Teheran during his career, batting .459 with seven home runs and 17 RBI in 45 career plate appearances against him. Harper is expensive, but he also has tremendous upside Tuesday.

Adam Eaton vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,700

Speaking of hot starts, Eaton is 8-for-13 with two home runs, five RBI and seven runs scored through just three games. He’s hitting leadoff for one of the best lineups in baseball, so he is going to have plenty of opportunities to provide value. The Nationals may be cautious with him to start the season after he was limited to just 23 games last year, but he didn’t play Monday, so expect him to be back in the lineup and providing value Tuesday.

Mitch Haniger vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,400

Haniger completes today’s trio of outfielders who have started off the season well as he is 5-for-8 with two home runs and a double so far this season. He’ll face a lefty in Blach who struggled to get out righties last year, allowing a .350 wOBA to them compared to just .261 against lefties. If you want to pay up to get Harper in your lineup, Haniger is a viable budget-friendly option to consider pairing him with.

Others to consider: Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gomez

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

The Catcher position has historically been a tough slot to fill in fantasy baseball. There is usually a small tier of excellent options, followed by a precipitous drop off to the next best group of players. This season will be no different. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some catchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Sanchez has firmly established himself as the premier fantasy option at catcher. He had a monster campaign in 2017, hitting .278 with 33 home runs, 90 RBI, and a .345 OBP. He did all that in just 122 games as he missed almost a month at the beginning of the season due to injury. Although he’s only played in 175 games in his career, he has already hit a whopping 53 home runs. All of his supporting numbers back up his counting stats, so there is no indication that he should slow down this season. He’ll be part of a lethal lineup including fellow sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, which should leave him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He will likely be drafted as early as the second or third round in your league, but he should be worth it based on how much better he is than any of the other catching options.

Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

Like Sanchez, Contreras is another young catcher who has quickly vaulted himself into the upper echelon of the position. He played in just 117 games last year but batted .276 with 21 home runs, 74 RBI, and a .356 OBP. Sanchez posted a 4.1 WAR last season, but Contreras was right behind him with a 3.9 WAR. He batted .283 with a .356 OBP in 517 career minor league games, so he’s proven that he can hit for a high average and get on base. The second best fantasy option at catcher comes down to Contreras and Buster Posey, but I give Contreras the edge because he hits for much more power.

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Posey has been as reliable as it gets for catchers, playing in at least 140 games in six straight seasons. That’s extremely valuable when you consider the volatility of the position. He’s been just as valuable in the batting average department, hitting a lofty .308 for his career. He also posted a .400 OBP last year and has an OBP of at least .362 in each of the last seven seasons. The problem with Posey is his power numbers have regressed, bottoming out at just 12 home runs last year. He only had 67 RBI as a result and while the Giants lineup should be improved this season, the lack of power will limit Posey’s upside. There is a big dropoff in production after you get past Posey when it comes to catchers, so it might be best to wait on the position if you can’t draft one of the top three options.

 

Overvalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Molina had a stellar season last year, batting .273 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. The problem is, he had only 19 home runs in the previous three seasons combined. He had also hit more than 14 home runs in a season only once in his career heading into last year. He had an 11% home run to fly ball ratio last year, which is significantly higher than his career mark of 7%. His ADP is 148.77 in the NFCB, the sixth highest among catchers. In terms of general draft position, that’s a higher ADP than players including Greg Bird (153), Adrian Beltre (159.27) and Gregory Polanco (160.59). Don’t overpay for Molina just because the catcher position is shallow, especially considering his abnormal 2017 campaign.

Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners

Zunino was a valuable fantasy asset last season, setting career-highs in batting average (.251), home runs (25) and RBI (64). He’s shown he can hit for power previously in his career, but he had never batted above .214 in a single season. He is a candidate to see a significant drop in batting average as his BABIP was .355 last year. Prior to that, he had never had a BABIP above .267. With the jump in home runs across the league, his value takes a big hit if he hits closer to .200 this year. His current ADP is 161.10, ahead of players like Jon Gray (165.99), Brett Gardner (180.65) and Matt Carpenter (181.99). Again, you should be looking for value in your draft, so it would be wise not to reach for Zunino at that price.

 

Undervalued Players

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Catchers

Welington Castillo, Chicago White Sox

Castillo had a tremendous power season for the Orioles last year, hitting 20 home runs despite playing only 96 games. He hasn’t played more than 113 games in any of the last five seasons but has hit at least 13 home runs four times. With a 36.4% hard hit percentage for his career, he has been able to post BABIP of at least .336 in three of the last five years. He could reach a career-high in games played for a rebuilding White Sox team if he can stay healthy, giving him the potential to provide valuable numbers. His current ADP is tenth among catchers, but don’t be surprised if he finishes ranked higher than that when the season is all said and done.

Robinson Chirinos, Texas Rangers

Chirinos played in only 88 games last year but still managed to hit 13 home runs to go along with a .255 batting average. He’s never played more than 93 games in his career but has shown impressive power by hitting at least 10 home runs in three of the last four years. Not only did he have a 20% home run to fly ball ratio last year, but he also posted a career-high 11% walk percentage. He could be in line for a bit of a regression in terms of his batting average this year, but his overall numbers might not differ too much from Zunino’s. Considering he is being selected about 100 picks later in drafts, I’d much rather take a chance on Chirinos.