MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

MLB Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on April 3, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

As long as the weather cooperates, there are plenty of MLB games on the schedule today with 28 teams in action. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

Chris Sale vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $11,400
DraftKings = $12,900

Sale picked up where he left off last year with his first start of 2018, pitching six shutout innings and recording nine strikeouts against the Rays. Sale is one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. The Marlins tore down their team over the winter and while they have had a couple of nice offensive showings already this season, facing Sale is a whole different story. Don’t hesitate to pay up to get Sale into your lineup.

Chase Anderson vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $10,100

Anderson had a breakout campaign for the Brewers last year, posting a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. His FIP was 3.58 and opponents did have just a .268 BABIP, so he could be in line for some regression this season, but likely not one that significant. He had control issues by allowing three walks in his first start of the season against the Padres, but by allowing just one hit and striking out eight batters, he did not allow an earned run. He’ll get a tougher opponent in the Cardinals on Tuesday, but he can still provide value at this reasonable price.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Freddie Freeman vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Freeman continues to be an on-base machine for the Braves as he already has eight walks in four games this season. He’s done damage as well, recording a home run and five RBI so far. He’ll face a right-hander in Cole on Tuesday, which is good news considering Freeman dominated righties last year with a .422 wOBA. Cole also allowed a .414 wOBA to lefties last year, so this could be the perfect storm for Freeman.

Willson Contreras vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Contreras is off to a slow start this year, hitting 4-for-21 (.190) with just one RBI. Tuesday brings a favorable matchup though against Reed, who had a 5.09 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 17.2 innings for the Reds last year. He did make 10 starts for the Reds in 2016, but he was even worse with a 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Contreras had a .386 wOBA against lefties last year, so it might be worth taking a chance that Tuesday is his first breakout game of the season.

Others to consider: Joey Gallo (first base) and Brian McCann (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Ozzie Albies vs. A.J. Cole (Washington Nationals)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,600

Albies is not off to a great start this season either, recording only two hits in his first four games. He does have a home run, two RBI and three runs scored, helping to salvage some of his lines. The Nationals have a great starting rotation, but he’ll get to face one of their weaker links in Cole on Tuesday. Cole had a 3.81 ERA last year, but his 5.20 FIP suggests that should have been much higher. He also has problems keeping runners off base with a career 1.45 WHIP.

Javier Baez vs. Cody Reed (Cincinnati Reds)
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $4,000

Baez only has two hits through the first five games of the season and has struck out five times while drawing just one walk. He struck out 144 times in 145 games last year and had just a .317 OBP, so his starts in those departments aren’t all that surprising. He batted .315 with nine home runs against lefties last year though, making him possibly worth the risk for your lineup Tuesday at this price.

Others to consider: Whit Merrifield and Rougned Odor

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Anthony Rendon vs. Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,300

The Nationals have a potent lineup and Rendon gets the benefit of hitting between Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper on most nights. Teheran will have a tough task ahead of him, especially considering he had a 5.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home last season. He wasn’t any better in his first start at home in 2018 against the Phillies, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings on Opening Day. The Nationals could put up a crooked number Tuesday with Rendon right in the middle of the action.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Jakob Junis (Kansas City Royals)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = NA

The Tigers are rebuilding and Candelario is considered one of the important parts of their future. He played well in 27 games with the Tigers last year, hitting .330 with a .406 OBP. While he likely can’t keep that up in 2018, he did post a .270 average and .350 OBP during his career in the minors. He’ll bat second and from the left side of the plate against Junis on Tuesday, who allowed lefties to bat .274 against him in 2017 compared to righties batting just .246. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Xander Bogaerts vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,400

Bogaerts is red hot to start the season, recording at least two hits in four of his first five games. He’s hit for power as well with one home run and five doubles. He’ll face the default ace for the Marlins in Urena on Tuesday, who allowed five runs in four innings against the Cubs on Opening Day. Urena has a career FIP of 5.07, so Bogaerts could play a big role in a potential offensive explosion for the Red Sox in this game.

Alcides Escobar vs. Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers)
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,200
DraftKings = NA

Escobar recorded his first hits of the season Monday against the Tigers, going 2-for-3 with a double, triple and a run scored. He only hits eighth in the Royals lineup, which hurts his value in DFS based on the limited amount of at-bats he gets batting that low in the order. However, he gets a favorable matchup against Boyd, who allowed a .357 wOBA against righties last year compared to just .313 against lefties. Escobar is very cheap and could allow you to add a couple of big sluggers to your entry with the savings he will provide. He’s only available on FanDuel as DraftKings is not including this game in their early slate.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Elvis Andrus

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/3/18

Bryce Harper vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $5,300

Harper is off to a torrid start this season, batting .417 with a .550 OBP, three home runs and seven RBI. Talent has never been the question with Harper as he usually produces when he’s healthy. He has also owned Teheran during his career, batting .459 with seven home runs and 17 RBI in 45 career plate appearances against him. Harper is expensive, but he also has tremendous upside Tuesday.

Adam Eaton vs. Atlanta Braves (Julio Teheran)
Stadium – SunTrust Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,700

Speaking of hot starts, Eaton is 8-for-13 with two home runs, five RBI and seven runs scored through just three games. He’s hitting leadoff for one of the best lineups in baseball, so he is going to have plenty of opportunities to provide value. The Nationals may be cautious with him to start the season after he was limited to just 23 games last year, but he didn’t play Monday, so expect him to be back in the lineup and providing value Tuesday.

Mitch Haniger vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,400

Haniger completes today’s trio of outfielders who have started off the season well as he is 5-for-8 with two home runs and a double so far this season. He’ll face a lefty in Blach who struggled to get out righties last year, allowing a .350 wOBA to them compared to just .261 against lefties. If you want to pay up to get Harper in your lineup, Haniger is a viable budget-friendly option to consider pairing him with.

Others to consider: Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gomez

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on April 2, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Although this is the second week for most fantasy baseball leagues, it’s the first full week of games for the 2018 season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at LAA, vs. KC

The big names in the Indians starting rotation are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, but Clevinger proved to be an important part of their rotation in 2017. He finished the year 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9. Walks were an issue at 4.4 per nine innings, but he held opponents to just a .211 batting average. Getting two starts out of a pitcher with his strikeout upside can give you a significant edge in many leagues. His second start of the week against the Royals is especially favorable based on the losses they suffered to their lineup this winter.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: at CIN, at MIL

I was very high on Chatwood heading into this season and he gives those who drafted him a two-start week early in the season. Chatwood did not pitch well in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies last year, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was much better on the road, finishing with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. He’ll still have a potent lineup behind him in Chicago, which could have him in line for the best season of his career.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. MIN, vs. CIN

Taillon’s numbers from 2017 aren’t impressive as he finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. However, his FIP was 3.48, so he could be in line for improved numbers this season. Opponents also had a .359 BABIP against him last year, which should be in line for some regression towards the norm this season. Taillon only allowed 0.7 HR/9, which is important because he didn’t have overpowering stuff with an 8.4 K/9. Playing the Twins at home will help Taillon as he gets to avoid the DH.

Charlie Morton, Houston Astros: vs. BAL, vs. SD

Morton had one of the best seasons of his career in 2017 finishing with a career-high 14 wins to go along with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 10 K/9. He had a 3.46 FIP, opponents posted a .297 BABIP against him, and he only allowed 0.9 HR/9, so his numbers stand up past just the initial inspection. The Orioles really struggled offensively in their first series of the season, scoring a combined five runs in three games against the Twins. The Padres brought in Eric Hosmer during the winter, but their lineup still isn’t very imposing. Expect significant production for Morton in Week 2.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: vs. WAS, at COL:

The Braves have two starters who will each get two starts this week, but they have very unfavorable matchups. First, they face the Nationals at home, who still have a very deep lineup despite the absence of Daniel Murphy (knee). Teheran really struggled at home last season, posting a 5.68 ERA compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. After Newcomb and Teheran get through that, they then have to travel to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Both pitchers will provide value over the course of the long season, but this might be the week to keep them anchored to your bench.

Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: at HOU, at NYY

Tillman was horrid for the Orioles last season, posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. He’s bound to improve on those numbers this year, but his career 4.43 ERA and 4.66 FIP leave a lot to be desired. Unless you are in a very deep AL-only league, you shouldn’t be starting him regardless of opponent or number of starts he has in a given week. Bundy, on the other hand, is considered the future of the Orioles rotation at just 25 years old. He had a respectable 2017 campaign, finishing with a 4.24 ERA and 8.1 K/9. He did a great job keeping runner off base with a 1.20 WHIP, but his 1.4 HR/9 is an area of concern. He’ll face two of the more powerful lineups in all of baseball in Week 2, so it might be best to avoid him for your lineup.

Bryan Mitchell and Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, at HOU

The Padres made some improvements to their lineup, but their starting rotation still has a long ways to go before they can become a playoff-caliber team. Ross rejoins the Padres after injuries limited him to just 54.1 innings in the last two seasons combined. His brief stint with the Rangers did not go well last season, finishing with a 7.71 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Mitchell was brought over in a trade with the Yankees after bouncing between their bullpen and starting rotation. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, posting just a 5.9 K/9 during his career in the majors. He could be someone to consider streaming against favorable opponents, but that’s certainly not the case this week facing the Rockies and Astros. Don’t trust either Padres starter to help you win your league this week.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

MLB Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on March 30, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The thrill of Opening Day has come and gone, but there is still plenty of excitement for Friday’s slate of MLB games in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Max Scherzer vs. Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $11,100
DraftKings = $12,700

The first game of this series was scheduled for Thursday but was pushed back a day due to rain. This leaves a unique opportunity to use one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball on the second day of the season. Scherzer was terrific on his way to winning the Cy Young Award in 2017, finishing with a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12 K/9. He’s one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. The Reds have one of the best hitters in baseball in Joey Votto, but their overall lineup is not overly impressive. Look for Scherzer to start off the season on the right foot with another excellent outing Friday.

Blake Snell vs. Red Sox
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,800

Snell has had control problems in his brief major league career, but he showed signs of improvement over the second half of the season, walking just 25 batters in 77.1 innings. His numbers improved, as a result, recording a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP during that stretch. Snell has also been a much better pitcher at home, posting a 3.20 ERA and 9.7 K/9 at Tropicana Field in his career. The Red Sox lineup is no cake walk, but Snell has strikeout upside and might be worth taking a chance on at this cheap price in tournament play.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Chicago Cubs vs. Caleb Smith (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The sad state of affairs for the Marlins starting rotation leads Smith to start their second game of the season. He’s pitched only 18.2 innings in the majors during his career, posting a 7.71 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. At 26 years old, Smith is not a hot rising prospect either. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, recording an 8.5 K/9 during his minor league career. The Cubs already mashed the Marlins for eight runs on Opening Day, so don’t be surprised if they have another offensive explosion Friday.

Players to consider stacking: Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, Addison Russell

Houston Astros vs. Doug Fister (Texas Rangers)
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington

Fister has had a fine career, but he’s not much more than a journeyman starter at this point. He appeared in 18 games for the Red Sox last year, finishing with a 4.88 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He had an 8.3 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up this year as his career K/9 is only 6.2. The Astros have one of the most potent lineups in the league, which could spell disaster for Fister on Friday. Make sure to take advantage for your entry.

Players to consider stacking: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Brian McCann

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $4,500

Freeman wasted no time getting off to a hot start this season, going 1-for-2 with a home run, two RBI, three runs and three walks Thursday. Friday brings a matchup against right-handed starter Nick Pivetta, who had a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season. Freeman also mashes right-handed pitching, batting .303 with a .531 slugging percentage against them in his career.

Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,100

Davis also started off the 2018 season in style, going 2-for-5 with a home run and four RBI Thursday. He’s an elite power bat, hitting at least 42 homers in back-to-back seasons. He’s had success against Friday’s starter Tyler Skaggs, posting four hits, one home run, three RBI and one walk in eight career plate appearances against him. Skaggs also gave up 13 home runs in just 85 innings last year, which could be troublesome against Davis.

Zack Cozart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,000

Cozart made a good first impression with his new team Thursday, going 3-for-6 with a home run and a double. He is coming off the best season of his career in 2017 when he hit .297, but that was partly inflated by his abnormally high .312 BABIP. He crushed left-handed pitching last season, batting .337 with a .633 slugging percentage. He gets to face Athletics’ lefty Sean Manaea on Friday.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $4,000

Dickerson had an excellent season in 2017, batting .282 with 27 home runs and 62 RBI as he made his first All-Star team. The Rays moved on from several key pieces of their offense in the offseason, ultimately landing Dickerson with the Pirates. He gets to face Jordan Zimmermann on Friday, who posted an unsightly 6.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP last season. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 5.8 K/9. Dickerson hits right-handed pitchers particularly well, with 24 of his 27 home runs coming against them last year.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

MLB Daily Fantasy Picks

by Mike Barner on March 29, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

The long wait is finally over. Opening Day has arrived! There’s nothing quite like the excitement of the first day of the baseball season. Let’s kick this season off in style with a successful daily fantasy baseball lineup. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Open day special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $11,200
DraftKings = $12,200

Sale (hip) started off his Red Sox career in style, posting a 17-8 record and finishing second in the voting for the Cy Young Award last year. He dominated the league, recording a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a career-high 12.9 K/9. His ERA was no fluke either as his FIP was a sparkling 2.45. Sale was hit by a comebacker in his final start this spring, but he should be fine for Opening Day. He gets a great matchup against a rebuilding Rays squad that lost Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson over the winter. Their lineup is lacking power as a result, setting up Sale to have a strong start to the 2018 campaign.

Garrett Richards vs. Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,800

Richards showed promise in his first two full seasons as a starting pitcher in 2015 and 2016, going a combined 28-16 in 376 innings. His ERA was 3.65 or lower in both seasons and he had 340 total strikeouts. However, injuries have taken a toll on him the last two seasons, resulting in him throwing only 62.1 innings combined. He pitched well when he was on the mound, allowing only 16 total earned runs during that stretch. He’s healthy now and had a strong spring, recording a 2.84 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Thursday’s opponent in the Athletics has a lot of power, but they also have several players who strike out a lot. If you don’t want to pay up for Sale, Richards could provide value at a much more budget-friendly price.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (San Francisco Giants)
Stadium – Dodger Stadium

The Giants were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation before the season even started, losing both Madison Bumgarner (hand) and Jeff Samardzija (pectoral). Because the injury to Bumgarner happened so late in spring training, the Giants did not have enough time to adjust their rotation. That left Blach lined up to start the opener. He did not have a strong season in 2017, finishing 8-12 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He struggled to get right-handed batters out as they hit .295 against him last year compared to lefties batting only .250. Most teams are throwing out their best starter in the first game of the season, which could lead to some low-scoring games. Take advantage of Blach taking the mound by stacking Dodgers hitters.

Players to consider stacking: Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp

Chicago Cubs vs. Jose Urena (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The Marlins traded away the vast majority of their good players and are lined up to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, Their starting rotation is particularly bad, likely leaving them as a good team to stack against most nights. At first glance, Urena’s numbers from 2017 don’t look bad. He finished 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his ERA could have been much worse as his FIP was 5.20. He also only struck out six batters per nine innings. Not having overpowering stuff immediately puts him behind the eight ball pitching against the potent Cubs lineup. On a day full of star pitchers, Urena is another defacto ace you can take advantage of.

Players to consider stacking: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

SPLIT KINGS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/29/18

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $5,400

It’s not hard to find great numbers for Trout. Although he was limited to only 114 games last year due to injury, he still hit .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Trout has owned Athletics starting pitcher Kendall Graveman, hitting .370 with two home runs and four RBI against him in 30 career plate appearances.

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $5,000

This might not seem like an obvious advantage for Betts against a tough starting pitcher in Chris Archer on Thursday. Archer is a big-time strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of at least 10.4 in three straight seasons. However, Betts has excelled against him during his career, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 RBI and eight walks in 39 career plate appearances.

Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,300

Gattis is eligible at catcher, but he figures to see most of his time at designated hitter for the Astros this season. Injuries have limited him to only 212 games in the last two seasons combined, but he still managed to hit 44 home runs during that stretch. He gets to face Cole Hamels on Thursday, who he has hit .360 with three home runs against in 25 career plate appearances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $2,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Pujols is a shell of his former self, hitting just .241 last season. He still showed he can hit for power though, slugging 23 home runs and recording 101 RBI. He has hit even better against Graveman than Trout has during his career, batting a loft .433 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 33 plate appearances.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on March 12, 20180 Comments

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.

Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays

Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on February 27, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

There have been some elite fantasy options at shortstop in the last decade, but the position hasn’t always had great depth. That’s not an issue in 2018 as there are plenty of valuable options available. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some shortstops who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Shortstop

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner is a stolen base machine. Despite playing only 98 games due to injury last year, he still stole 46 bases. He has only played 198 career games in the majors but already has 81 steals. He also hit .284 last year and should be an asset in batting average again for 2018. Unlike some of the other elite base stealers though, Turner won’t kill you in the power department. In his last 171 games, he has 24 home runs. He’s going to hit at the top of one of the best lineups in baseball, further increasing his already lofty value. Not only is he the best fantasy shortstop, but he should finish in the top-five of fantasy in general if he can stay healthy.

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Correa took a big leap forward in the power department in 2017, hitting 24 home runs with a .550 slugging percentage. He posted a 39.5% hard hit percentage, helping to lead to a career-high .315 batting average. There really aren’t any negative things you can say about Correa’s game. He only had a 19.1% strikeout percentage compared to an 11% walk percentage and 40.7% of the balls he put in play were hit to center field. He did only steal two bases in 109 games, but you shouldn’t be expecting significant steals from him anyways as he only had 13 in 2016. You will likely have to use a second-round pick to get him depending on the size of your league, but he will be worth it.

Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Lindor thrived in his first full season in the majors in 2016, hitting .301 with 15 home runs, 78 RBI, 19 steals and 99 runs scored. Not profiled to be a big power hitter, Lindor was just that in 2017, slugging 33 round trippers. He also had 44 doubles, resulting in a .505 slugging percentage. His batting average did drop to .273, but he still stole 15 bases. His strikeout and walk percentages were the same in both 2016 and 2017, but he posted by far his best hard hit percentage in 2017 at 35.2%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a slight decrease in home runs this year, but 25 home runs, 15 steals, and a .280 average are all reasonable expectations. If you miss out on Turner or Correa, Lindor is an excellent consolation prize.