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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

If you thought the tight end was position was thin in previous weeks, buckle up for the Week 6 schedule. The Eagles, Chiefs, and Patriots all won’t play during the main slate in DFS, leaving the position lacking the majority of the usual top options.  Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,400

With Jack Doyle out with an injury, it’s been the Ebron show in Indianapolis. He had a monster performance Week 5 against the Patriots, catching nine of 15 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. It marked the third straight week that Ebron has received at least 10 targets and the fourth time in five games that he has scored at least one touchdown. The yardage total was a bit out of character for him, though, considering he hadn’t posted more than 51 yards in any of his previous three contests.

Not only is Doyle likely to sit out again Sunday, but so is the Colts top wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton. Ebron should again get all the targets he can handle and be one of their main weapons when they get into the red zone. He now has 12 red zone targets this season, which is double Hilton’s mark of six that is second-highest on the team. The Jets have defended tight ends well this season, but Ebron should still get enough targets to provide a high floor. He did sit out practice both Wednesday and Thursday to rest a few injuries, but there has been no indication that he won’t play at this time.

Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,400

There is no question that Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the main offensive weapons in the Vikings passing attack. The two have combined for 121 targets and 84 receptions. That being said, the Vikings have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Rudolph hasn’t had any eye-popping performances yet, but he does have at least five targets and at least five receptions in four straight games.

His worst yardage total came in Week 1 when he only caught one pass for 11 yards, but that one reception was for a touchdown.  He’s finished with at least 41 yards in all four games since and has significant touchdown upside. Ebron might have the highest floor of any tight end this week, but Rudolph has also been a steady contributor who is worth considering in cash games.

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $3,300

The Bears defense comes into this game well rested after a bye week. They had a very impressive performance Week 4 against a Bucs offense that entered the game firing on all cylinders, holding them to 10 points. Not only did they force four sacks, but they also recorded three interceptions. The Bears have posted at least four sacks and one interception in each of their four contests so far.

The Dolphins started the season 3-0, but have come back to reality with losses in both of their last two games. They scored a combined 24 points in those matchups as Ryan Tannehill threw only one touchdown compared to two interceptions. With the way the Bears are able to put pressure on the quarterback, this game could be a nightmare for the Dolphins.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Njoku continued to show a good relationship with Baker Mayfield during Week 5 in a win over the Ravens. The Ravens have a strong defense, but Njoku was able to catch six of 11 targets for a season-high 69 yards. Njoku is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he’s clearly established himself as one of the top pass-catchers in the Browns offense by receiving at least seven targets in four of five games.

Njoku has been on the field for 83% of the Browns offensive plays, which is second on the team only to Jarvis Landry (92%). His 34 targets are also second to Landry and just ahead of Antonio Callaway (30). The Browns offense is more explosive with Mayfield at quarterback, which should lead to added opportunities for Njoku again Sunday.

Vance McDonald vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

McDonald laid an egg last week in what looked like a chance to shine against a bad Falcons secondary. He finished with one reception on two targets for six yards after receiving at least three targets in each of his first three games. The Steelers were up big after three quarters, which led to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to attempt a season-low 29 passes. He had averaged 46.5 pass attempts across his first four games.

On a positive note, McDonald was on the field for 61% of the Steelers offensive plays last week, which was actually higher than his season average of 54%. Some people may be wary of playing him this week after his poor stat line, but don’t overlook him in tournament play. He still carries upside and can help with your budget at this cheap price.

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,600

The Bengals scored 27 points against the Dolphins last week, but they were aided by two defensive scores. The Dolphins defense didn’t play all that poorly and their special teams provided a punt return for a touchdown. With yet another interception, the Dolphins have at least one pick in each game this year and lead the league with 10 overall.

The Dolphins have done a good job keeping opposing teams out of the end zone, although they haven’t exactly faced a bunch of offensive juggernauts with some of their opponents including the Titans, Jets, and Raiders. The Bears may have exploded for 48 points in Week 4, but quarterback Mitch Trubisky had two touchdowns and three interceptions over the first three weeks. Both defenses in this game could be strong plays with the Dolphins being the more cost-effective option to consider in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Greg Olsen vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Olsen reinjured his foot in the first game of the season and hasn’t played since. He’s decided to put off surgery in an attempt to play again this year and is trending in the right direction to return for Week 6. As one of their top pass-catching options, his return would be a welcome sight for the Panthers’ offense. However, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to play in this contest and how effective he’ll be in his first game in over a month. It might be best to take a wait and see approach with Olsen before rostering him in DFS.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,700

The Chargers had by far their best defensive showing of the season last week by holding the Raiders to 10 points. They had allowed an average of 30 points over their first four games. They have faced two great offenses in the Chiefs and Rams, but their other three games this year have come against poor offensive teams in the Bills, 49ers, and Raiders. The Browns now have a more explosive element to their offense with Mayfield and they have a few talented options around him, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising for them to have a strong showing this week. I’d particularly stay away from the Chargers based on their FanDuel price, but they might be best to avoid on both sites.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Running back isn’t especially deep for Week 6. The Saints are on a bye, meaning Alvin Kamara won’t be an option. The Lions are on a bye as well, which is a bad thing because they are a team you normally want to play opposing running backs against. Injuries continue to be a problem at the position, too, with Leonard Fournette expected to be out again due to his hamstring injury and Dalvin Cook still battling a hamstring issue of his own. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $10,000

Gurley didn’t exactly run wild Sunday against the Seahawks, rushing 22 times for 77 yards. His 3.5 yards-per-carry was his second-lowest mark of the season. However, he still had a monster performance with three rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in four catches on five targets for 36 yards, helping the Rams win a big game on the road against the Seahawks.

There is little doubt that Gurley is the top option at running back for Week 6. Not only does he get a ton of carries, but he’s received at least five targets in four of five games this year. He has one of the highest touchdown upsides in the league considering the Rams explosive offense. The Broncos were torched by Isaiah Crowell for 219 yards in Week 5 and have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (139.6) in the league.

Melvin Gordon vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200

If you want reliable, Gordon is your man. His overall rushing yardage totals haven’t been off the charts, but he is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards-per-carry. He’s also scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. However, maybe the biggest reason that Gordon has been a consistent source of fantasy points this year is because of his increased involvement in the passing game. After finishing 2017 with 58 receptions on 83 targets for 476 yards. Gordon already has 28 catches on 38 targets for 261 yards.

The Chargers do have an explosive backup to Gordon in Austin Ekler, but Gordon is clearly going to get plenty of work. The Browns have had their issues stopping opposing running backs, allowing 116.6 rushing yards per game and 28 receptions for 284 yards to opposing running backs. Gordon’s floor might not be as high as Gurley’s, but he’s a great option for your entry.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,300

The Panthers enjoyed a bye for Week 4, leaving McCaffrey and company with plenty of rest heading into a home matchup against the Giants. McCaffrey had rushed 28 times for 184 yards Week 3 against the Bengals, a feat that was going to be very difficult for him to match. He didn’t come close to that kind of production, rushing 17 times for 58 yards. His 3.4 yards-per-carry was his lowest mark of the season, although the 17 carries were his second-most attempts.

The good part about McCaffrey is that he doesn’t need to have a lot of success carrying the ball to provide value. He caught five of six targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in that game, which was his first score of the season. Despite having a bye week, McCaffrey’s 32 targets are tied for sixth-most among running backs. The Redskins have only allowed 92.5 rushing yards per game, which is in large part because opponents have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts against them (92). The Panthers rely heavily on the run and with McCaffrey’s immense upside in the passing game, he’s still one of the best running backs available for Week 6.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Joe Mixon vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,500

Mixon returned in Week 5 from a two-week absence due to a knee injury. It was just in time for the Bengals, who have since lost his backup Giovani Bernard to a sprained MCL. With the lack of quality depth behind him, Mixon wasted no time in his return, rushing the ball 22 times for 93 yards. In the three games that Mixon has played, he has at least 17 carries and 84 rushing yards in each of them.

The Bengals will also turn to Mixon in the passing game with Bernard out, which helped him haul in three of four targets for 22 yards and a touchdown Sunday. This could be a high-scoring game against a Steelers team that is not only averaging 28.6 points per game but has also allowed 26.6 points per contest. Expect Mixon to put up plenty of yards and have a favorable chance of reaching the end zone.

Marshawn Lynch vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300

The Raiders are a disaster. They scored 10 points in a loss to the Chargers in Week 5, marking the third time this season they have scored fewer than 20 points in a game. That’s not a recipe for success considering their defense has allowed 29.8 points per contest. Lynch was a victim of their lopsided loss Sunday, receiving a season-low nine carries. He finished with only 31 rushing yards and failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week.

Lynch and the Raiders will look to regroup for the first game of the season in London. This could be a matchup to exploit considering the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129) and the seventh-most yards-per-carry (4.7) in the league. Lynch had received at least 18 carries in each of the previous three weeks and has scored three touchdowns overall, making him an intriguing option in tournament play.

Chris Carson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,400

One of the most perplexing running back situations in the league can be found in Seattle. They drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round to potentially be their running back of the future, but he hasn’t received more than 10 carries in a game this season and didn’t even log a single offensive snap in Week 5. Mike Davis has surprisingly been given a prominent role over the last two weeks, totaling 169 yards on 33 carries.

Carson was starting to establish himself after rushing 32 times for 102 yards in Week 3, but missed Week 4 due to injury. He returned Sunday, and although Davis still received 12 carries, Carson was the superior runner with 19 carries for 116 yards. Both players should continue to get carries Sunday but expect Carson to see the heavier workload. The uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s backfield has helped keep Carson’s price down, leaving him as someone worth taking a chance on since the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (127.2).

Phillip Lindsay vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,500

Lindsay worked his way into a prominent role at the start of the season and hasn’t looked back. He was ejected early in Week 3’s game against the Ravens but has at least 12 carries and 61 rushing yards in each of his other four games. He’s still sharing the backfield with Royce Freeman, which has worked well for the Broncos so far since both players are averaging more than five yards-per-carry.

The split at running back somewhat limits Lindsay’s upside, especially since Freeman is going to get the majority of the goal-line carries. He already has three rushing touchdowns compared to just one for Lindsay. However, Freeman has received only six targets compared to 12 for Lindsay. The Broncos could find themselves in a big hole early against the Rams offense, and if that’s the case, the game plan late in the game would likely favor Lindsay.  The Rams defense hasn’t been stout against the run, either, allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry (5.0).

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $7,000

This has more to do with Elliott’s price and matchup than anything else. He’s clearly one of the best running backs in the league and is the top offensive weapon on the Cowboys based on their lack of talent at wide receiver. They’ve even leaned on him more in the passing game, resulting in Elliot getting 29 targets this year. The Jaguars had a tough time against the Chiefs in Week 5, but the Cowboys have one of the least explosive offenses in the league. Look for the Jaguars to key in on stopping Elliott, making him a risky play at this price.

Kenyan Drake vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Drake had his best performance of the season Sunday, finishing with 115 total yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. However, he only received six carries compared to 12 for Frank Gore. That marked the third straight week that Drake had fewer than 10 rushing attempts. Drake might have big-play upside, but it’s hard for him to cash in if he doesn’t get enough opportunities. The Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (64) and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground, so stay far away from Drake when crafting your entry.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

After three weeks of a full schedule, Week 4 brings two teams on a bye with the Redskins and the Panthers getting an early breather. The Chiefs also play on Monday, taking their high-flying offensive weapons out of the equation if you playing the main Sunday slate in DFS. However, there are still plenty of great matchups to take advantage of at the quarterback position. Let’s examine some players to target and avoid as you craft your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 - Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $6,800

Last year, Rodgers threw for at least 300 yards in each of the first three games of this season. Through the first three weeks of 2018, Rodgers has yet to reach that mark. He continued to battle through a knee injury Sunday against the Redskins, throwing for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Although his yardage totals haven’t been great, he does have six touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception.

Rodgers is certainly not going to be completely healthy again Sunday, but he could be in line for one of his best performances of the year. The Bills pulled off a miraculous upset against the Vikings last week, but that game was at home. Playing on the road in Lambeau Field is a completely different story. The Bills have allowed seven touchdown passes and recorded only one interception through the first three weeks, setting up Rodgers with a high floor in this contest.

Matt Ryan vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $6,100

Ryan’s season started with a whimper, registering 251 yards, one interception and no touchdowns Week 1 on the road against the Eagles. To say he’s bounced back well would be an understatement. In the last two games, Ryan has thrown for 646 yards, seven touchdowns and has even chipped in two rushing touchdowns. He completed just 48.8% of his passes in Week 1 but has completed 77.8% of his passes since.

Week 4 brings a third-straight home game for Ryan and the Falcons. They’ll face a Bengals defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through the first three weeks. The Bengals didn’t exactly get lit up by Cam Newton last week, but the Panthers offense is built around their running game, which is not the case for the Falcons. Their wide receiver trio of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu can cause a lot of problems for opposing defenses, so don’t hesitate to roll with Ryan for your entry.

Philip Rivers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,500

Sunday’s game against the Rams wasn’t pretty for Rivers, who completed 18 of 30 passes for 226 yards. He still threw two touchdown passes and avoided being intercepted, but it wasn’t all that surprising that he didn’t have a banner day against a tough Rams defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The two touchdown passes by Rivers were the first they had allowed this year.

Things swing back in Rivers’ favor for Week 4 against a 49ers team that is still reeling from the loss of their franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn in ACL. Their defense was torched in that contest, allowing Patrick Mahomes to rack up 314 yards and three touchdowns. The 49ers have now allowed eight touchdown passes and are still looking for their first interception. They will be short-handed in the secondary with Richard Sherman already ruled out due to a calf injury, potentially setting up Rivers for a productive afternoon.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 - Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400

Dalton provided a mixed-bag against the Panthers in Week 3. While his 352 passing yards and two touchdowns look nice, he also threw four interceptions in the Bengals first loss of the year. His yardage total was boosted by his 46 pass attempts, which marked his second consecutive week with at least 40 attempts. He threw at least 40 passes in a game only two times all of last season.

The Bengals have a much easier matchup Sunday against a Falcons defense that is missing several key players due to injury, including linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen. They have allowed 731 passing yards and six passing touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last two games, leaving Dalton as an excellent option in tournament play based on his upside.

Baker Mayfield vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $5,300

The Browns finally ended their long losing streak and basically did so on the shoulders of Mayfield, who came in at quarterback after Tyrod Taylor left Thursday’s game due to a concussion. Although Mayfield didn’t throw a touchdown, he completed 17 of 23 passes for 201 yards and added some much-needed life to their offense. The Browns have already named Mayfield as the starting quarterback for Week 4, a job he should hold onto for the rest of the season, barring injury.

Playing on the road on the West Coast isn’t exactly ideal for a rookie quarterback’s first career start, but the Raiders don’t have an imposing defense. The trading of Khalil Mack has significantly hurt their pass rush as they have only three sacks through the first three weeks., which is the fewest in the NFL. Their lack of pressure has only resulted in one interception, as well. Don’t be surprised if Mayfield thrives in this game.

Ryan Tannehill vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,500

Who would have thought that heading into this AFC East matchup that the Dolphins would be 3-0 while the Patriots would be 1-2? A lot of the Dolphins success can be attributed to Tannehill, who has completed at least 71.4% of his passes and thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the first three weeks. He’s also provided some value with his legs, rushing 15 times for 74 yards.

While the Dolphins’ start has been impressive, this will be by far their toughest task of the season facing the Patriots on the road. It might not be all that bad for Tannehill and their offense, though, since the Patriots have allowed 25.7 points per game across the first three weeks. The Dolphins are finally completely healthy at wide receiver, too, with DeVante Parker returning last week. I don’t think Tannehill has as high of a ceiling as Dalton and Mayfield do, but he can still provide value at this price.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 - Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Nissan Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800

Wentz made his first start of the season Sunday, completing his return from a torn ACL suffered last year. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t awful either, throwing for 255 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It certainly didn’t help his cause that the Eagles were missing two of their top three wide receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace. They were also without Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles in their backfield. Ajayi and Sproles are expected to return for Week 4 and Jeffery might make his season debut, as well, which would certainly be a boost for their offense. That being said, Wentz is still coming off a long layoff, so it might be wise to spend your money elsewhere.

Derek Carr vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $5,100

The Raiders are a mess. They have led at the half in each of their first three games, but don’t have a win to show for it. Carr has posted a 76.6% completion rate and is averaging 312 passing yards per game, which would both be career-highs. However, he’s turned that into only two touchdown passes and he has five interceptions. The Browns defense has been much improved and has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s especially impressive when you consider they have faced the Steelers and Saints already. Stay away from Carr when crafting your lineup.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

We’re only two weeks into the season, but injuries are piling up across the league. Aaron Rodgers was able to battle through a knee injury Week 2 against the Vikings, but Marcus Mariota was unable to play against the Texans due to an injured elbow. Week 3 brings some good news at quarterback with Carson Wentz set to return for the Eagles. It also brings another opportunity to win some cash in DFS. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs made the decision to move on from Alex Smith during the offseason and give their promising young quarterback in Mahomes a chance to shine. He’s done just that through the first two weeks, throwing for 582 yards and a staggering 10 touchdowns. There was some concern that he could turnover prone heading into the season, but he’s yet to throw an interception. He’s also completed 69.1% of his passes.

This might be the perfect storm for Mahomes. He has a big arm and a ton of talent around him on offense. The Chiefs are also horrible on the defensive side of the ball, which should force him to throw a lot in high scoring games. Not only has Mahomes dominated in his first two contests, but it shouldn’t be overlooked that both of those performances came on the road. He’ll finally get to play at home against a 49ers defense that allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. Mahomes’ price has jumped significantly, but his ceiling is tremendous.

Kirk Cousins vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,800

The Vikings came away with a tie against the Packers in Week 2, but Cousins had an impressive performance. After completing just 55.6% of his passes in Week 1, he connected on 72.9% of his attempts against the Packers. He amassed 425 passing yards, marking the fourth time in his career that he has thrown for at least 400 yards in a game. He also chipped in four touchdowns to go along with only one interception.

Cousins had some decent weapons around at times with the Redskins, but nothing like the trio of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. He’s primed to have an excellent season. Sunday brings an extremely favorable matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed six touchdown passes and has failed to record an interception through the first two weeks. This game might get out of hand early due to the Bills putrid offense, but Cousins still has a high floor.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,500

Garoppolo understandably struggled in the first game of the season against a tough Vikings defense. He only had to attempt 26 passes in Week 2 against the Lions as the 49ers raced out to an early lead, but he completed 18 of those attempts for 206 yards and two touchdowns. His 69.2% completion percentage was on par with the 67.4% mark that he posted in 2017. It should also be noted that he was missing arguably his best pass-catching option in Marquise Goodwin due to a quad injury.

Going up against the vaunted Chiefs offense, expect Garoppolo to throw a ton in this game. The Chiefs defense was lit up by Ben Roethlisberger last week and has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through the first two weeks. It’s still uncertain if Goodwin will be able to return for this game, but Garoppolo is an excellent option even if he’s missing his speedy receiver.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson vs. New York Giants
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,100

Watson looked rusty in Week 1 against the Patriots. He completed only 50% of his passes for 176 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He did chip in 40 rushing yards on eight carries, but it was a disappointing performance based on the lofty expectations that he set for himself last year before going down with a torn ACL. However, he looked more like himself last week against the Titans, completing 68.8% of his passes for 310 yards, two touchdowns and one interception to go along with 44 rushing yards.

Possibly one of the biggest reasons for his disappointing first game was the absence of Will Fuller. For his career, Watson has averaged 35.4 fantasy points per game in the games Fuller has played compared to 17.4 points per game without him. With Fuller’s return for Week 2, Watson thrived. The Giants defense has had plenty of trouble defending mobile quarterbacks this year, allowing Blake Bortles to rush for 35 yards in Week 1 and Dak Prescott to rush for 45 yards last week.  Watson could be in line for a huge performance.

Alex Smith vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,800

Smith was set up nicely for a big game last week against a Colts secondary that has plenty of holes. He did complete 71.7% of his passes, but he only finished with 292 yards on 46 attempts. He again didn’t throw an interception, but he failed to throw a touchdown pass, as well.

Smith is going to take care of the football and keep his team in the game most weeks. The problem is, he’s not always a big-play quarterback. He threw 26 touchdown passes all of 2017, but his replacement Mahomes already has 10 through two contests. The good news for Week 3 is that the Redskins are facing a Packers defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks across the first two weeks. They also might be forced to throw a lot to keep up with Rodgers and the Packers offense, making him someone to consider for your entry.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,300

Tannehill is back and the Dolphins are 2-0. What more could you ask for, right? Well, before Dolphins fans get too excited, they did beat two mediocre teams in the Jets and Titans. You can only beat who’s on your schedule, though, and Tannehill’s return at least gives them some hope to be more competitive this season. He threw for just 168 yards last week, but only attempted 23 passes in what was a convincing win. He did complete 73.9% of his attempts and record two touchdowns.

It’s encouraging that Tannehill has completed at least 70% of his passes and thrown for at least two touchdowns in both games this season. While not flashy, he has some solid receivers around him in Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and Albert Wilson. The Dolphins rushing duo of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore can cause problems, as well. His upside isn’t as high as that of Watson, but Tannehill could be a low-owned player who provides value at this cheap price.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,800

Rivers is off to a fast start, throwing for 680 yards and six touchdowns over the first two weeks. He’s been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league during his career, throwing for between 28 and 33 touchdowns in each of the last five seasons. The problem is that he has to go against the vaunted Rams defense that has allowed an average of 3.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through two weeks. Yes, you read that correctly. There will be plenty of weeks that you want to roll with Rivers for your entry, but Week 3 is not one of them.

Dak Prescott vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,100

Prescott got off to a fast start Sunday night against the Giants, throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass to Tavon Austin on the third play of the game. That being said, he only threw for 96 yards the rest of the game. He threw for just 170 yards in Week 1, as well, and is clearly hampered by the Cowboys lack of talent at wide receiver. This team is built around Ezekiel Elliott and their rushing attack, which will likely limit Prescott’s opportunities. The Seahawks defense is not nearly as formidable as it has been in recent years, but Prescott doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration for your entry.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – Wide Receivers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.

In each article, we’ll highlight some players to target for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also discuss some players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Wide Receivers

A.J. Green vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,300

Green had a poor season by his standards in 2017. He finished with 1,078 receiving yards and eight touchdowns but caught only 75 of his 143 targets. He averaged just 67.4 yards per game, well below his career average of 80.5 yards per contest. After posting a catch percentage of at least 65.2% in back-to-back seasons, his 52.4% catch rate last year was the lowest mark of his career.

The good news is Green is clearly still the top option in Cincinnati and is going to get a ton of passes thrown his way. He’s never received fewer than 100 targets in a season, including in 2016 when he played just 10 games. The Colts have the worst secondary in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so Green could get off to a monster start in Week 1.

Keenan Allen vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,500

Allen entered 2017 having played nine games in the last two seasons combined. He has a ton of talent but needed to stay healthy to live up to lofty fantasy expectations. Everything finally came together, resulting in him playing all 16 games. He put up excellent numbers, catching 102 of 159 targets for 1,393 yards and six touchdowns. He led all wide receivers with 24 targets inside the red zone as well.

The Chargers added a promising young receiver in Mike Williams in the draft last year and while he’s healthy after battling his own injury problems in 2017, Allen is still far and away the top option for Philip Rivers. His high volume of targets gives him a high floor and his upside is tremendous for Week 1 against a Chiefs secondary that enters the season ranked 28th by Pro Football Focus.

Chris Hogan vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,100

Hogan had a hard time staying on the field for the Patriots last year, ultimately playing in just nine games. He finished with a career-low 57.6% catch percentage, but his 48.8 receiving yards per game was the highest mark of his career. He also finished with five touchdowns after scoring four across 15 games in 2017.

Hogan enters Week 1 as the Patriots clear top option at wide receiver due to the suspension of Julian Edelman. Most of his competition for targets will likely come from Rob Gronkowski and the combination of James White and Rex Burkhead catching passes out of the backfield. Hogan might not have the same upside as Green and Allen, but he still is a high-floor option considering his price on both sites.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Wide Receivers

John Ross vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $3,900

With the Bengals searching for another wide receiver to take some of the pressure off of Green, they selected Ross with the ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft. However, Ross missed training camp due to shoulder surgery and battled injuries throughout the season. Amazingly, he’ll enter 2018 in search of his first career reception in the NFL.

Ross is healthy now and showed a lot of promise in the preseason, including a spectacular reception where he faked out a couple of Bills defenders after making a catch on his way into the end zone. He will have to compete with Tyler Boyd for targets and tight end Tyler Eifert is surprisingly healthy heading into Week 1, but Ross still might be worth the risk in tournament play against the Colts porous secondary.

Danny Amendola vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $4,200

Amendola had one of the best seasons of his career last year, catching 61 of 86 targets for 659 yards. Although he’s had some injury issues during his nine seasons in the league, he’s recorded a catch percentage of at least 70% and averaged at least 10 yards per reception in three straight years.

Amendola left the Patriots to sign with the Dolphins during the offseason. They don’t exactly have a bunch of elite receivers in DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Albert Wilson, so Amendola should make an immediate impact. Parker reportedly won’t play in this game due to a finger injury, which should open up even more targets for Amendola. He doesn’t carry much touchdown upside, but Amendola could still provide value.

Cole Beasley vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of American Stadium
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $3,600

Beasley had a breakout season in 2016, finishing with 75 receptions on 98 targets for 833 yards and five touchdowns. He had a spectacular 76.5% catch percentage in what was Dak Prescott’s first season in the NFL, setting up what appeared to be an excellent quarterback-wide receiver relationship. However, his volume took a major hit last year, resulting in just 36 catches on 63 targets for 314 yards.

The Cowboys have a reworked wide receiver corps, so Beasley may have the best working relationship with Prescott out of the group. That could bode well for him to have a bounce-back season, especially early on while Prescott tries to gain an increased comfort level with the likes of Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup. Don’t be surprised to see Beasley fairly active in this contest.

Keelan Cole vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $3,800

The Jaguars have a suffocating defense, but they’ll need their offense to improve this season if they are going to bring home a Super Bowl title. They have already been dealt a tough blow at wide receiver, losing Maqise Lee for the season due to a knee injury. In his absence, Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief will vie to be Blake Bortles top pass-catching option.

Cole only hauled in 42 of 83 targets last year, but he averaged 17.8 yards per reception. Over three games that Lee was sidelined at the end of the regular season, Cole had a combined 17 receptions on 30 targets for 327 yards. The Giants are thin at cornerback outside of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple and have been susceptible to giving up big plays in the middle of the field. With Cole likely to see some work out of the slot, he makes for an intriguing option.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 - Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $7,000

Beckham has had an exceptional start to his NFL career, logging at least 90 catches, 1,300 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. However, like many of his teammates, Beckham’s campaign was cut short last year due to injury. He is healthy heading into Week 1 and just signed a huge five-year extension that erased any doubts about his future with the Giants. Big things are likely on the horizon for Beckham this season, but he could get off to a slow start against star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. At this price, he’s too much of a risk for me.

Marquise Goodwin vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,600

Goodwin was finally able to put together a healthy season in 2017, finishing with 56 receptions on 105 targets for 962 yards. His full-season pace based on the five games that Jimmy Garoppolo started would have put him at 138 targets, 93 receptions, and 1,229 yards. He’s someone you’ll likely want to have in your lineup more often than not but stay away from him this week against the stingy Vikings defense.

Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

We have arrived to the Draftkings championship week. If you are fortunate enough to earn a seat, good luck to you as 200 entries compete for the $2 million top prize. The Draftkings main slate is a unique one this week with only 11 games. There are two games on Saturday along with the usual Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night games that are not on the main slate. On top of that, we have six teams (Steelers, Patriots, Jags, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings) potentially able to clinch a playoff berth this week. Let’s dive right in.

Vegas

As a polar opposite of last week’s Vegas stats, this week features three teams that are double-digit favorites. The Saints are a massive 16 point favorite against the Jets. The Vikings are 11 point favorites at home against the Bengals, and the Jags are 10.5 home favorites against the Texans. Outside of these three teams, the Eagles (7.5) and Ravens (7.5) are road touchdown favorites, rounding out the largest spreads of the week.

There are a few games worth targeting this week, starting with the Pats at the Steelers, which has a slate high 53 game total. The Rams at Seahawks, Jets at Saints, and Packers at Panthers all have nice game totals over 47. Outside of those games, there aren’t any games with totals over 45.

As far as implied team totals, the Saints are the clear front-runners with an implied total of 31.75 points. The Pats have the second-best total of 28 points. The Vikings (26.5), Jags (25), Steelers (25), Panthers (24.75) and Seahawks (24.75) round out the top 5 highest implied team totals.

All this Vegas data was taken as of Wednesday night, so I strongly suggest checking back on Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Cam Newton (DK $6,400) – Cam comes into week 15 as one of my favorite quarterbacks of the week. He’s the 6th highest priced quarterback and has a really good matchup at home against the Packers (29th aFPA vs. QBs). We saw Deshone Kizer light up this same Packers secondary last week and scored 19.26 DK points, that’s about Cam’s floor. Cam performs much better as a home favorite opposed to as a  home underdog, and that is the situation he finds himself in this week. His team’s implied total is in the top 5 of the slate (24.75) and I expect this game to be a lot closer than most anticipate. I also love Cam’s rushing upside. Since week 6, Cam has rushed the ball more than 9 times in all but two games. Cam has a nice floor with his rushing upside and has a good ceiling of close to 30 points.

Drew Brees (DK $6,500) – An interesting pivot off Cam would be to pay the extra $100 to get to Drew Brees. Brees isn’t the same Brees we’ve grown to know with the Saints offense constantly throwing the ball 40+ times. Because of the Saints dynamic rushing duo, Brees has failed to meet salary expectations 5 of the last 6 games. Brees has only met salary expectation at home twice this season. All this points to a sneaky gpp play with Brees going up against the Jets funnel defense as they rank 32nd in aFPA to QB’s and are 7th in aFPA to RBs. Brees’ floor is much lower than Newton, but his ceiling always makes him appealing for tournaments.

Blake Bortles (DK $5,700) – Scraping the bottom of the barrel for a value QB is really difficult this week. With the limited number of games, there is a limited number of value quarterbacks on the slate. I’m more than likely going to stay in the midrange ($6,000 – $7,000). But if you are really looking for value, I would say take a look at Bortles. Bortles is coming off of two really decent games in which he combined to throw for 577 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (46.58 DK points). This week he faces a horrible Texans defense that ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Believe it or not, I may have talked myself into playing Bortles as I’m writing this.

Cash:

C. Newton, C. Keenum, B. Roethlisberger, R. Wilson, B. Bortles

GPP:

D. Brees, T. Brady, A. Rodgers, J. Goff

Running Backs

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,300) –  Finally we get the opportunity to roster Le’Veon in the main slate. Bell is the highest priced back, $700 more than Kamara, and at this point, it doesn’t matter. He’s in a league of his own, and the upwards of $9,000 price tag doesn’t scare me. Bell has been priced over 9K almost every game this season and has smashed nearly every week. The past three games, Bell is averaging 33.66 DK points and is averaging over 25 touches per game. Although Bell has only carried the ball more than 20 times once the last three weeks, he’s still seeing double-digit targets and has converted that to over 270 receiving yards in the last three games.

Kenyan Drake (DK $5,800) – Kenyan Drake has been absolutely smashing since Damien Williams went down in week 12. Drake has taken over the Dolphins backfield and has produced better than Gase could have expected. In two games without Williams, Drake is playing 85% of the snaps, has 91% of the rushing attempts and has accumulated 234 yards with 1 touchdown and 8 receptions. He has accumulated 53.4 DK points in those two games. This week he goes up against the Bills defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA to opposing running backs and just got lit up by old man Frank Gore for 130 yards. Drake is the chalk this week.

** It’s worth checking William’s practice status as he is pushing to get back on the field. **

Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,800) – There isn’t a free square value play like there was last week with Gio Bernard, but this week McKinnon might rank as my favorite. McKinnon is the same price as Samaje Perine, who undoubtedly comes with a safer floor given that Washington isn’t utilizing a running back committee but I still like McKinnon. McKinnon is starting to separate himself from Latavius Murray, having played more snaps (53% to 46%) and received more of targets (18 to 8) in the past 4 weeks. Murray still sees the majority of the rushing attempts (60:43), but DK’s PPR format helps make McKinnon more valuable. McKinnon is a huge home favorite against the Bengal who rank 30th in aFPA allowed. I do have some hesitation that if the Vikings get out to a big lead, it could mean more of Murray pounding the ball opposed to McKinnon catching the ball out of the backfield, but I think this game is closer than most anticipate.

Cash:

L. Bell, T. Gurley, K. Drake, G. Bernard, S. Perine, L. McCoy

GPP:

A. Kamara > M. Ingram, L. Fournette, K. Williams, J. Ajayi, J. McKinnon, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Michael Thomas (DK $7,400) – Outside of Antonio Brown ($9,100) the next best receiver to hit cash game value is Michael Thomas. He’s one of six active receivers averaging over 10 targets per game in the past month and this week he has a nice matchup against the Jets. The Jets rank 28th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Thomas leads the team in targets with 125 on the season and 9.6 targets per game. Thomas has the better matchup than Hopkins at $7,700 and Thielen $7,600.

Devin Funchess (DK $6,600) – The other highest owned receiver along with Thomas might be Funchess. Funchess has either scored a touchdown or reached the 100-yard bonus each of his last 4 games and now gets one of the best matchups you could ask for against the Packers. The Packers are the worst team in the league against opposing wide receivers, and this game could very well shoot out if Aaron Rodgers suits up. Funchess leads the team in targets (39) since the Panthers traded Benjamin. You don’t always have to pair Cam with any of his receivers because of Cam’s rushing upside, but Funchess would be the ideal stack if you do.

AJ Green (DK $6,500) – AJ Green has seen a crazy price drop and is all the way down to $6,500. Green is a top 5 receiver in the league, and I’ll always be interested in Green at this price point. The problem is that Green is going up against the Vikings who rank 6th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes. Green may be a risk for cash games considering there is Funches around that price range. But I love getting exposure to him at his price in tournaments.

Jordy Nelson (DK $6,300) – The ghost of Jordy Nelson. He’s had a terrible year, but with the news that Aaron Rodgers could return, that could mean an uptick in targets for Nelson. Unfortunately, his price actually increased above $6,000, so he doesn’t come as much of a bargain. But he should come in at single-digit ownership, which makes for a nice tournament flyer.

Cash:

A. Brown, M. Thomas, D. Funches, A. Green, M. Goodwin, A. Jeffrey, R. Anderson, D. Westbrook

GPP:

A. Thielen, B. Cooks, D. Adams, J. Crowder, D. Baldwin, P. Richardson, R. Matthews

Tight End

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Zach Ertz (DK $6,000) – This week we don’t have the value that we had last week with Ertz missing the game making Trey Burton a plug and play. We’re still waiting to hear if Ertz will play this week, but if he does, he’s substantially cheaper than Gronk ($7,300). Even without Wentz, Nick Foles is a formattable backup quarterback. It doesn’t get much better than a matchup against the Giants who rank 26th in aFPA to tight ends. If Ertz is active, he should be considered the top play at tight end.

Jimmy Graham (DK $4,900) – Graham is an even bigger discount from the high priced tight ends. You can’t deny Graham’s red zone market share, and the matchup against the Rams should be a game that is back and forth. The Rams are respectable against tight ends (12th aFPA), but last time these two faced off Graham went for 15.7 DK points. The sub $5,000 price tag seems reasonable to me.

Vernon Davis (DK $3,900) – Davis might be my favorite punt play. He’s taken over the starting tight end job with Reed being placed on IR. The issue is he’s been relatively quiet the last four games only catching 7 balls for 117 yards. The bright side is that last week he saw his targets jump back up to 7 against the Chargers and he was able to find his way into the end zone. Below $4,000 against the Cardinals (18th aFPA vs. TE), I’ll take my chances here if I need salary relief.

Cash:

R. Gronkowski, Z. Ertz, J. Graham, V. Davis

GPP:

E. Engram, D. Walker, G. Olsen, C. Clay, A. Seferian-Jenkins

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 15

Minnesota Vikings (DK $3,500) – The top five priced defense are all in positive spots. Of the five, I like the Vikings the most given their $1,000 salary savings from the Jags. They’re up against the Bengals who just got embarrassed by the 4-9 Bears. The Vikings are coming off of a disappointing loss and should look to rebound as huge home favorites.

Miami Dolphins (DK $2,700) – If Tyrod Taylor is ruled out on Sunday, that could leave Joe Webb starting for the Bills. Joe Webb showed some potential in the preseason, but the Dolphins defense just put out their best performance of the season beating the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Check the news on Taylor. If Taylor is out I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Miami.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy – Waiver Wire Targets

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner*

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy – Waiver Wire Targets

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While it may be hard to believe, we are already heading into Week 11 of the NFL season. In many fantasy leagues, that means only four more weeks of games will be played until the fantasy playoffs start Week 15. Some of you may already have an eye towards the playoffs or may have even clinched a birth. Congratulations if that’s the case.

If you are in a position to make the fantasy playoffs, you want to start taking a look at the matchups now to see where you can gain an edge. Making the right add on the waiver wire now could be the difference in bringing home the championship in your league or falling short of reaching the ultimate goal. Here are some players at each position who are still available in many leagues who have favorable matchups weeks 15 and 16.

**QUARTERBACKS**

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy - Waiver Wire Targets
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has not been good this season as they enter Week 11 with the eighth-fewest points scored in the NFL. That being said, Rivers is still having a respectable season with 2,263 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. After throwing 21 interceptions last year, Rivers has done a much better job of limiting turnovers as he has only thrown seven picks this season. Week 15 brings a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as they have allowed the sixth-most net passing yards per game (259). Week 16 brings an even better matchup against the New York Jets as they are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (20). Rivers is still available in 43% of ESPN leagues, so see if your league is one of them if you need help at quarterback.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco’s recent body of work is discouraging as he has thrown for less than 200 yards in three of his last four games. However, one of those games was a blowout win where he wasn’t needed much. Another was against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense on the road. He will get to face the Browns Week 15, who are tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed (19). Week 16 also brings a great matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that is allowing the second most net passing yards per game (275). Flacco is still available in 92% of ESPN leagues, but he will have added value when it counts the most.

 

**RUNNING BACKS**

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy - Waiver Wire Targets
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins

When the Dolphins traded lead running back Jay Ajayi to the Philadelphia Eagles, it was expected that Drake would split the backfield duties with Damien Williams. While Williams has been more involved in the passing attack, Drake has established himself as the more valuable fantasy asset of the two. Since Ajayi’s departure, Drake has 151 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and one touchdown over two games. The Dolphins will take on the Buffalo Bills Week 15, who have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (14) this season. Week 16 brings a juicy matchup against the Chiefs as they have allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game (131.1). Drake is not only a great option for the fantasy playoffs, but you want him for the rest of the season in general. He is still available in 43% of ESPN leagues.

Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens

Woodhead was expected to have a significant role in the Ravens offense heading into the season, but he was hurt in the first game and placed on injured reserve. He is eligible to return now and could be back on the field in a week or two, giving him plenty of time to shake off the rust before the fantasy playoffs. With the Ravens favorable fantasy schedule already outlined above, Woodhead is someone you want to target on waivers, especially in PPR leagues. He is still available in 61% of ESPN leagues.

Dion Lewis, New England Patriots

It almost makes me sick to my stomach thinking of relying on a Patriots runnings back during the fantasy playoffs. However, with all the injuries in the NFL this season and the Patriots favorable schedule, it might be the prudent move to make. Lewis has been more involved in the offense of late as he has at least 11 carries and 44 yards in each of the last four games. He has also scored two rushing touchdowns across those four games. The Patriots face the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 15, who are in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry allowed (4.2) this season. Week 16 brings a great matchup against the aforementioned porous Bills rushing defense. Lewis is still available in 63% of ESPN leagues.

 

**WIDE RECEIVERS**

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy - Waiver Wire Targets
Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars rely heavily on Lee as he has received at least 10 targets in three of the last four games. He has largely produced, hauling in at least 55 receiving yards in all four of those game. With Allen Robinson out for the season, Lee will continue to have a significant role. Week 15 brings a matchup against the Houston Texans, who are also tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed (19). They face the San Francisco 49ers Week 16, who are right behind the Texans with 18 passing touchdowns allowed. Lee is still available in 57% of ESPN leagues, so go pick him up.

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

Davis’ promising rookie season was put on hold after Week 2 due to injury. Expected to be a major part of the offense, he received 10 targets Week 1. Now healthy, he received another 10 targets Week 10. He only hauled in 4 of them for 48 yards, but the volume is the key. His best matchup of the fantasy playoffs comes Week 15 against the 49ers. While he does face a tougher Los Angeles Rams defense Week 16, the Titans might need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Rams high-scoring offense. Davis is still available in 66% of ESPN leagues and provides nice upside.

Taylor Gabriel, Atlanta Falcons

Gabriel is the third wide receiver behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, limiting his value. He only has 23 receptions, 303 receiving yards, and one touchdown this season. Not exactly someone who screams waiver target right? Well if you are in a deep league, he might be the wise add to make. He will get the opportunity to take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 15 as they have allowed the fourth-most net passing yards per game (266). While Week 16 brings a matchup against a much-improved New Orleans Saints defense, the game is in New Orleans. The Saints could be racking up points in a hurry, causing Atlanta to rely heavily on their passing attack. Gabriel is still available in 89% of ESPN leagues and could be a valuable pickup for your squad.

**TIGHT ENDS**

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy - Waiver Wire Targets
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Putting Olsen in any waiver wire article at the start of this year would have seemed ludicrous. However, he was dropped in many leagues after being placed on injured reserve with a foot injury earlier in the season. He is eligible to return Week 12 and all indications are that he will be ready. With Kelvin Benjamin now in Buffalo, Olsen is going to be a target monster. He’d have value regardless of who is playing but does have nice matchups against the Green Bay Packers Week 15 and the Buccaneers Week 16. He is still available in 49% of ESPN leagues. Go get him now while you still can.

Jermaine Gresham, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have dealt with significant injuries to both running back David Johnson and quarterback Carson Palmer, severely limiting their offense. Backup quarterbacks often like to use their tight end as a security blanket, which has been the case in Arizona. In two games with Drew Stanton at the helm, Gresham has a total of 10 targets, seven catches, 87 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals face the Washington Redskins Week 15 and the New York Giants Week 16, two of the worst teams at defending tight ends. He’s still available in 99% of ESPN leagues and has upside if you need help.

**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**

Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy - Waiver Wire Targets
Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals defense doesn’t have the easiest of tasks Week 15 against the Redskins, but Week 16 is a great matchup against the Giants. Only three teams have scored fewer points than the injury-riddled Giants. Two widely-owned fantasy defenses that have bad matchups Week 16 include the Saints against the Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks against the Dallas Cowboys. You might not want to start the Cardinals Week 15, but they could be more valuable Week 16 than those two teams. The Cardinals are still available in 53% of ESPN leagues.

Washington Redskins

Normally, starting the Redskins wouldn’t be on your radar as they are in the bottom half in terms of fantasy points scored. However, they have crazy good matchups in the fantasy playoffs. They get the banged-up Cardinals Week 15 and the Denver Broncos Week 16, another team who struggles to score. To top it off, both games are in Washington. They are still available in 86% of ESPN leagues and could be a difference maker in your league.

 

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.

While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.

Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Martellus Bennett - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers

You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.

Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.

Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.

Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins

Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.

His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.

Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.

Tyler Eifert - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Overrated Players

Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.

Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.

Denver Broncos

To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.

The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.

A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Zach Ertz

Undervalued Players

Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.

Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.

Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.

Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons

Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.

The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Houston Texans

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Houston Texans

The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.

Difficult Schedules

Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins

I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Running Backs 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the second of our season previews, we’ll break down the running back position. Wide Receivers have been the darlings of fantasy drafts in recent years, but the running back position is making a claim to dominate the first few spots in many drafts this season. Even in leagues where PPR scoring would appear to favor the receivers, running backs who can also catch passes out of the backfield can carry tremendous value.

Whether you want to draft elite running backs early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Adrian Peterson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - New Orleans Saints - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Adrian Peterson – New Orleans Saints

Peterson joins the Saints after spending a decade with the Minnesota Vikings. To say he posted some impressive stats with the Vikings is an understatement. He rushed for at least 1,266 yards and scored at least ten rushing touchdowns in each season where he played in at least 14 games. His best season was in 2012 when he had 2,097 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 217 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

Peterson has seen his career take a turn for the worse due to injury as he has played three games or less in two of the last three seasons. He only played three games in 2016, rushing a meager 37 times for 72 yards total while failing to reach the end zone.

While he was the undisputed number one back in Minnesota, he doesn’t have a clear path for a significant workload with the Saints. He joins a backfield that already has talented hold over Mark Ingram. Ingram had the best season of his career last year as he had 1,043 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 319 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. The Saints also drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round, adding further talent to their squad.

It’s highly unlikely that Peterson is going to match his significant production years because not only will he be sharing the workload, but he’s not the same physically that he once was. That being said, he could still provide touchdowns as their power back when they get towards the goal line. Best case scenario for him from a fantasy perspective though is probably to finish as a low-end RB2.

Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

Lynch returns to the NFL after a brief one-year retirement. He had an excellent stretch from 2011 through 2014 with the Seattle Seahawks where he rushed for at least 1,200 yards and scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns in each season. Known for being a power runner, he’s no slouch in the passing game either as he has recorded at least 300 receiving yards three times in his career.

The 2015 season was a struggle for Lynch as he was limited to only seven games due to injury. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, his lowest average since 2010. While he decided to retire after that season, he couldn’t resist coming back to play in his hometown for the Raiders this season.

Due to his style of play, the year off may actually benefit Lynch. He also has the benefit of playing behind a very good offensive line. The Raiders finished sixth in the NFL last season with 1,922 rushing yards as a team and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns with 17. Throw in talented offensive players like quarterback Derek Carr and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and you get a potentially potent offense.

Lynch will have to share some of the workload with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, but he is still going to get the majority of the carries. It would not be surprising if he finishes the season with close to 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Spencer Ware - Kansas City Chiefs - Lineup Lab

Overrated Players

Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs

Ware showed plenty of promise in 2015 in limited action as he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and scored six rushing touchdowns on only 72 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles was limited to only three games and 12 carries in 2016, opening the door for Ware to become the feature back in Kansas City.

Ware’s overall 2016 stats are impressive as he recorded 921 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 447 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He finished with averages of 4.3 yards per carry and 13.5 yards per reception.

A closer look at his numbers though show that he did most of his damage in the beginning of the season, then tailed off dramatically. In the first five games of the season, he averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry in four games and had two of his three rushing touchdowns for the season. Over the last eight games he played for the season, he failed to rush for more than 69 yards in any game and finished with an average of 3.8 yards per carry or less in five of the final six games.

While he enters this season as the starting running back, his work load is expected to be threatened by rookie Kareem Hunt, who should at least take away some opportunities in the passing game. Hunt rushed for 1,475 yards and had 403 receiving yards in college last season, showing he can be a dual-threat in the backfield. Ware can still provide valuable fantasy contributions, but don’t expect him to be anything more than a low-end RB2. If you are playing in a PPR format, Hunt’s presence creates an even bigger threat to Ware’s value.

Paul Perkins – New York Giants

Perkins had a solid rookie campaign for the Giants as he rushed for 456 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. He also contributed to the passing attack with 15 receptions and 162 receiving yards. He is expected to be the starting running back this season after the Giants moved on from Rashad Jennings.

Perkins is a trendy pick to have a breakout campaign this season, but I’m not buying it. He had 127 total touches last season, but failed to reach the end zone even once. The Giants offensive line was terrible last season as the team only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, good for third worst in the NFL. They did nothing to improve the line heading into this season either, so there isn’t much reason to believe they will be any better.

The Giants are a pass heavy team as they will likely throw the ball as much (if not more) this season since they brought in both Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram during the off season. It’s also important to remember that Shane Vereen missed most of last season due to injury. He’s going to play a lot when the Giants are looking to throw the ball and he had 59 receptions on 81 targets when he was last healthy for them in 2015.

While it’s going to be hard for Perkins to not at least record a few touchdowns this season, don’t believe the hype. I would not want him to be one of the starting running backs on my fantasy squad.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - LaGarrette Blount - Lineuplab - Philadelphia Eagles

Undervalued Players

LeGarrette Blount – Philadelphia Eagles

Blount is coming off of the best season of his career as he had 1,161 rushing yards and a whopping 18 rushing touchdowns for the New England Patriots last year. To put that into perspective, he had a total of 18 rushing touchdowns in his previous three seasons combined.

Blount is now a member of the Eagles and could thrive yet again. Don’t worry about him not being involved in the passing game because of Darren Sproles as Blount has never caught more than 15 passes in a season anyways. Ryan Mathews played the same role last season that Blount will this year. He came away with 8 touchdowns and 661 yards in only 13 games last year.

The Eagles are going to be much improved offensively this season with quarterback Carson Wentz entering his second season and adding receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, meaning Blount could have plenty of red zone opportunities. He’s not going to score 18 touchdowns again, but I don’t think 10 touchdowns and 750 yards is out of the question. That’s a valuable contributor that can be had in the middle rounds of many drafts.

Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins

Perine had an excellent college career with Oklahoma as he rushed for at least 1,060 yards and had at least 12 rushing touchdowns in all three seasons. While those numbers are great, his 6.0 yards per carry average over those three seasons is exceptional.

He joins a Redskins offense that was known as more of a passing unit last season as only five other teams had fewer rushing attempts. Rob Kelley was their most prominent running back, finishing with 704 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Although the Redskins didn’t run much, their average of 4.5 yards per carry was good for ninth best in the NFL.

While Kelley is the projected starter this season, don’t be surprised if Perine passes him at some point. Kelley showed flashes last season, but had 37 rushing yards or less in three of his last six games. You have to take some chances and hit on some late-round picks to have a real shot at winning your league. I think Perine is one of those late-round players who could provide a nice return on investment.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Jordan Howard - Chicago Bears - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Jordan Howard – Chicago Bears

Howard has one of the best fantasy playoff schedules as he gets to face the Detroit Lions on the road in Week 15 and the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 16. Although the Lions only allowed eight rushing touchdowns last season, they did allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Howard played well against them last year, rushing for 197 yards total in two games. The Browns were terrible against the run last season as only three times had a higher average than their 4.6 yards per carry allowed. They also allowed 18 rushing touchdowns, a total surpassed by only five other teams. Howard is a great fantasy option on the season overall, but he could really cash in during the playoffs.

Jay Ajayi – Miami Dolphins

Ajayi had a breakout season in 2016 and could be in for an even bigger role in the offense this season with Ryan Tannehill out for the year. He gets to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, a team that allowed the fourth most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns last season. Week 16 brings a match up with the Chiefs who allowed 121.1 rushing yards per game last season, good for seventh most in the NFL.  Expect big things from Ajayi when it matters the most.

Difficult Schedules

Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams

Gurley faces an extremely difficult task in Week 15 as he squares off against the Seattle Seahawks on the road. The Seahawks allowed only 3.4 yards per carry last season, which was the best in the NFL. Gurley did not perform well against them last year either as he rushed for only 89 yards against them in two games combined. Week 16 is no cake walk either as he will take on the Tennessee Titans, a team who actually allowed less rushing yards than the Seahawks did.

Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers

Hyde also has the dubious task of facing the Titans as they take on the 49ers in Week 15. Not only did the Titans not allow many rushing yards, but their 10 rushing touchdowns allowed was tied for fifth best in the league. It doesn’t get much easier for Hyde and the 49ers in Week 16 as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who only allowed an average of 3.8 yards per carry last season. Taking into consideration Hyde’s injury history, this fantasy playoff schedule doesn’t do his fantasy value any favors either.

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the first of our season previews, we’ll break down the quarterback position. While it’s the most important position in the NFL, it’s not necessarily the most important position in fantasy football. If you don’t get one of the elite signal callers, a sound strategy is to wait until later in the draft as there is plenty of depth at the position.

Whether you want to swing for the fences and take your quarterback early or wait for a sleeper in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Mike Glennon - Chicago Bears - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Mike Glennon – Chicago Bears

Glennon joins the Bears after spending the first four seasons of his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With Jameis Winston at the helm, it was an easy decision for the Bucs to let Glennon leave in free agency. Glennon started 13 games during his rookie season in 2013 and posted a 59.4% completion percentage to go with 2,608 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He started five games in 2014, but has only appeared in two games the last two seasons.

Although Glennon signed a three-year deal with the Bears, they could get out of the deal after this season. It appears that could be a likely scenario as they just drafted Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick.

Glennon doesn’t have the best weapons around him to succeed this season. While Jordan Howard is an excellent running back, his receiving core leaves a lot to be desired. The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadephia Eagles, which is a significant blow to the team. Although they brought in a big name in Victor Cruz, he is a much different player than Jeffery and his best days appear to be behind him.

That leaves Glennon’s top wideouts as the combination of Kevin White and Cameron Meredith. White was limited to four games last season and only averaged 46.8 yards in those games. Meredith had a breakout campaign in 2016 as he had 66 receptions, 888 yards and four touchdowns. Glennon has a solid tight end in Zach Miller to pair with White and Meredith, but none of the three players are elite targets.

Stay away from Glennon as not only does he have limited weapons, but there is a chance he could end up on the bench in favor of Trubisky at some point during the season.

Jay Cutler – Miami Dolphins

Cutler was ready to begin his career as a broadcaster until the Dolphins lost Ryan Tannehill for the season with a knee injury. Cutler was limited to only five games due to injury himself last season, but was struggling even when healthy as he had four touchdowns, five interceptions and a 33.2 QBR for the season. He had some strong campaigns early in his career, but has thrown for less than 20 touchdowns in four of his last six seasons.

Unlike Glennon, Cutler actually has some weapons in wide receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Although Landry only has eight total touchdowns in the last two seasons, he did record at least 94 receptions and 1,136 yards in both years. The Dolphins also brought in Julius Thomas at tight end, hoping to revive his career after two terrible seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with his struggles though, he did have nine total touchdowns in Jacksonville.

The Dolphins should be a run heavy offense behind Jay Ajayi, but Cutler has never been known to be a game manager. Even with several talented offensive players around him, Cutler is no longer a valuable fantasy option outside of two quarterback leagues.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks - Lineuplab

Overrated Players

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks

Don’t get me wrong, Wilson has put up some big numbers in his career. He finished 2016 with a career-high 4,219 passing yards to go along with 21 passing touchdowns, 259 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Durability is a big part of his value as he has yet to miss a game in his career. He has also thrown nine interceptions or less in three of his five seasons in the league.

With that being said, he’s going too high in drafts. Last season, he finished 10th in the NFL in passing yards, 12th in passing yards per game and 17th in passing touchdowns. While he can add value in the running game, he only finished ninth in total rushing yards for a quarterback. To put that into perspective, he only had 52 more rushing yards and actually one less rushing touchdown than Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Wilson is likely to be picked among the top five quarterbacks in many leagues, but his production doesn’t match that price. You’d be better off waiting a few rounds and picking up someone like Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans or Jameis Winston of the Bucs as they could approach (if not exceed) Wilson’s production.

Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger has put up some monster numbers in his career. He went through a stretch from 2009 through 2014 where he threw for at least 4,000 yards four times and averaged 25 passing touchdowns per season. The best season of his career was in 2014 when he threw for 4,952 yards to go along with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. That’s elite production.

Big Ben also has elite weapons around him, led by Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Brown has at least 106 receptions and 1,284 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons while Bell is one of the premier pass catching running backs in the league.

However, Roethlisberger has regressed the last two seasons, mainly because of injuries. He appeared in 12 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016. Even in games when he does take the field, he seems to be dealing with nagging injuries more often than not.

Another area of concern is his crazy home and road splits. In home games last season, Roethlisberger averaged 319 passing yards per game and posted 20 touchdowns to only five interceptions. On the road, he only averaged 238 passing yards per game while recording nine passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. When you look at his touchdowns and interceptions, it’s even more staggering when you consider he played eight road games last year and only six home games.

Is this a one-year fluke you ask? No, it’s certainly not. Although his passing yards per game were much closer (348 at home compared to 308 on the road) in 2015, his totals were still way off as he had 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions at home compared to only five touchdowns and nine interceptions on the road.

There is limited value in a quarterback who you can only start with confidence in half of his games. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Lineuplab

Undervalued Players

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston has had success in his young career as he has surpassed at least 4,000 passing yards in both seasons in the NFL. He has 50 touchdowns and 33 interceptions total while not missing a game so far.

Last season he threw for 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. His passing stats are impressive when you consider outside of star receiver Mike Evans, the offense was lacking talent. Evans had 96 receptions for 1,321 yards. The next highest totals were both posted by tight end Cameron Brate, who logged 57 receptions for 660 yards.

The Bucs have added some serious talent to their offense this season by bringing in wide receiver DeSean Jackson and drafting tight end O.J Howard. Jackson adds much-needed speed and has averaged at least 17.6 yards per catch in each of the last three seasons. Howard can help create some difficult match ups when paired with Brate on the field while also providing solid blocking.

This season is shaping up to be another big campaign for Winston. If you prefer to wait on a quarterback, Winston can be drafted long after the elite options are off the board, but could still post a top-10 season.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz had a respectable rookie season, throwing for 3,782 yards to go along with 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also added 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. While none of these numbers are eye-popping, take into consideration the talent he had around him. The team leader in both receptions (78) and receiving yards (816) was tight end Zach Ertz. Of their top four leaders in receptions, two were tight ends, one was a running back and only one was a wide receiver.

Although the Eagles traded away Jordan Matthews, they made significant upgrades at wide receiver by bringing in both Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Despite playing only 12 games last season, Jeffery still had more receiving yards (821) than anyone on the Eagles last year. Smith may not haul in a ton of catches, but he has averaged at least 16.8 yards per catch in four of his six seasons in the NFL.

With Ertz returning as well, Wentz has three legitimate options to throw to this season. The schedule also appears to be in Wentz’s favor this season as six of the Eagles 16 games come against teams who finished in the bottom nine of the NFL with regards to passing yards allowed last season. They also face only two teams who finished in the top five in passing yards allowed last season.

While he can be had in the later rounds of most drafts, Wentz has the potential to put up top-15 numbers at quarterback this season.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has two road match ups in weeks 15 and 16, but they come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 15) and the New Orleans Saints (Week 16). The Saints allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season while the Bucs were one of 11 teams in the league to allow at least 4,000 passing yards. If you can make it to the playoffs, Ryan could help push you to a title.

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens

Flacco also has an advantage in the fantasy playoffs as he faces the Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 15 and the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 16. The Browns allowed 36 passing touchdowns last season, the most in the NFL. The Colts allowed 27 passing touchdowns of their own while also giving up 4,200 passing yards, which was good for sixth most in the league. You don’t want Flacco to be your starting QB for the entire season, but keep an eye on him when injuries mount at the end of the season and he gets this favorable schedule.

Difficult Schedules

Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts

Luck faces tough opponents as he gets the Denver Broncos at home in Week 15 and the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16. The Broncos had the best pass defense in the NFL last season. They allowed a league-low 2,972 passing yards and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). The Ravens were no slouch either as they tied for the league lead in interceptions (18) and finished in the top-nine in passing yards allowed. Luck could be in for some disappointing performances when it matters the most.

Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins

Cousins is a trendy pick this season to outproduce his draft spot. While he might have a good season overall, the fantasy playoffs will be no picnic. Both games are at home, but he has to play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 and the Broncos in Week 16. I already detailed how deadly the Broncos’ defense is, but the Cardinals are very tough as well. They limited the opposition to only 210 passing yards per game and 21 touchdowns last season, both in the top-10 in the league. Of all the tough fantasy playoff schedules, Cousins may have the toughest.