Believe it or not, we are already a quarter of the way through the NFL season. The quarterback landscape is certainly very different since we started things off four weeks ago, which has caused significant ramifications across DFS. Let’s break things down for Week 5 and highlight some of the best players at the position to consider, as well as a couple to avoid.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Conference Championships
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
And then there were four. The NFL brings us the Conference Championships this weekend with the top four teams set to face off for a chance to play in the Super Bowl. It also means this will be our last opportunity to play anything other than single-game contests in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Of note, there will be no breakdown for defense/special teams. The reason is all four of these teams have great offenses, so don’t overthink the position. Just play whichever team fits into the slot after you’ve selected your offensive players. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $6,600
The Chiefs scored 31 points last week, so Mahomes must have shined, right? Well, not exactly. He did complete 65.9 percent of his passes for 278 yards and did not throw an interception. However, he also didn’t throw a touchdown pass for just the second time this season. Luckily, he chipped in a rushing touchdown, but it was still a disappointing state line, overall. He’ll look to rebound against the Patriots, who allowed 29 passing touchdowns during the regular season. The Chiefs also might be forced to throw the ball more to keep up with the Patriots’ offense, setting up Mahomes to potentially have a nice bounce-back performance.
Tom Brady vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $5,800
This game between the Patriots and Chiefs should be the more fantasy-friendly contest despite the potential for playing in cold conditions. The Chiefs allowed the second-most passing yards per game (273) during the regular season and Brady torched them for 340 yards in Week 6. Even though Brady doesn’t have the benefit of playing this game at home, the potential for a shootout makes him an appealing option if you don’t want to pay up for Mahomes.
RUNNING BACKS
James White vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $5,400
Technically, White is a running back. However, he didn’t receive a single carry last week against the Chargers. That didn’t stop him from having a monster game, though, as he caught 15 of 17 targets for 97 yards. While the 17 targets seem like a crazy number, White actually had four games during the regular season in which he received at least 10 targets, so it’s not as outlandish as you might think. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (895) to opposing running backs during the regular season, leaving White with tremendous upside once again.
Sony Michel vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,600
One of the reasons why White didn’t carry the ball against the Chargers is because Michel was eating them up on the ground. He finished the game with 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns. The lopsided score certainly helped with his workload, but don’t expect him to slow down in his second meeting with the Chiefs this season. The last time they played each other, Michel piled up 106 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) during the regular season, setting up Michel with the potential for another monster performance.
Damien Williams vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $6,400
Everything went right for Williams last week against the Colts. He received a season-high 25 carries with Spencer Ware (hamstring) once again inactive and made the most of his opportunities by piling up 129 yards. He also recorded a rushing touchdown and caught five of six targets for an additional 25 yards. With teams having to focus so much on the Chiefs’ passing game, it’s hard to slow down Williams, as well. They also move the ball up and down the field so well that Williams is left with plenty of scoring opportunities. Even if Ware returns this week, expect Williams to receive the bulk of the carries once again.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Michael Thomas vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200
Thomas entered last week with an extremely favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Eagles’ secondary. He certainly didn’t disappoint, catching 12 of 16 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. The 16 targets were very encouraging to see because the Saints have been known to spread the ball around at times this season. Even though this isn’t as favorable of a matchup, Thomas had no problems against the Rams in Week 9 when he recorded 12 receptions on 15 targets for 211 yards and a touchdown. He’s by far the best receiving option on the Saints and stands out as the wide receiver with maybe the highest upside of anyone in action Sunday.
Julian Edelman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $6,600
The Patriots suffered a significant loss when Josh Gordon had to leave the team. Rob Gronkowski has appeared to be a shell of his former self, which has required them to lean even more heavily on Edelman. He was plenty involved last week against the Chargers, catching nine of 13 targets for 151 yards. He now has a total of 52 targets across their last five games. Edelman stands out as a stellar play against the porous Chiefs’ defense.
Phillip Dorsett vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,900
With only two games, viable cheap options are few and far between. However, your budget won’t allow you to load up on stars, so you need to take chances somewhere. Dorsett might be a risk worth taking after he caught four of five targets for 51 yards and a touchdown last week. He now has a touchdown in back-to-back contests and doesn’t receive a ton of attention from opposing defenses since they have to try and slow down Edelman, Gronkowski, Michel, and White. If he finds his way into the end zone again here, he could be a difference maker in DFS.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,100
If there was ever a week to pay up for Kelce, this is it. The other options outside of him are not very exciting. He came through with seven catches for 108 yards last week after totaling at least 100 yards in a game five times during the regular season. Expect the Patriots to try and key in on shutting him down, but he receives so many targets that his floor is still exceptionally high. The Patriots also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,100
It looks like Gronkowski’s days in the NFL are numbered. He’s having a hard time getting open and isn’t nearly involved offensively as a result. He only had one target last week, marking his third straight game with three or fewer targets. The clear choice at tight end is Kelce, but if you decide you want to load up elsewhere, Gronkowski is a dart throw with some upside since the Chiefs were destroyed for 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns by tight ends in the regular season.
Author Bio:
Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season-long fantasy football league, the fun isn’t over yet. Every week is a new opportunity to bring home some cash in DFS. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your lineup for Week 14. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $6,800
The Steelers were involved in a shootout against the Chargers last week, ultimately losing 33-30 at home. Roethlisberger did throw for two touchdowns, but he had just 281 yards. That marked the first time since Week 9 that he had thrown for fewer than 300 yards in a game. He was also picked off again, leaving him with six interceptions across his last three games. The good news is that he attempted 45 passes and has at least 40 pass attempts in nine of 12 games.
Roethlisberger’s interceptions are up this year, but so are his touchdowns and passing yards per game. His touchdowns numbers are still much better at home (16) than on the road (10), but he is averaging 350.5 passing yards per game on the road. The Raiders struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the most passing touchdowns (29) in the league, leaving Roethlisberger with a very high floor in this contest.
Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $6,600
It’s tough for the road team to win on Thursday Night Football, but the Saints laid an egg offensively against the Cowboys by scoring 10 points last week. Brees was as much to blame as anyone, throwing for just 127 yards to go along with one touchdown and one interception. The fact that he attempted just 28 passes didn’t help his cause, but he had four touchdowns across only 22 pass attempts the previous week against the Falcons.
Believe it or not, Brees has now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in a game three times this season. The Saints have a great running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, which doesn’t always leave Brees with a ton of passing attempts. He has largely made up for that lack of volume, though, with 30 touchdowns. When the Saints and Bucs squared off in Week 1, Brees had 439 yards and three touchdowns. Considering the Bucs have allowed the second-most touchdowns through the air (28), expect Brees to have a big bounce-back performance.
Philip Rivers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $6,500
The Chargers big win on the road against the Steelers last week has them riding high as they approach a spot in the playoffs. Rivers was right at the forefront of their victory, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns. He’s only thrown for at least 300 yards one time across his last five games, but he’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game this season.
The loss of star running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was significant for the Chargers, but there is hope that he might not be out for too long. Even if he does return for Week 14, this is a prime spot to use Rivers in DFS. The Bengals injuries on offense might grab all the headlines, but their defense has been atrocious, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (280) to go along with 26 passing touchdowns.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Jameis Winston vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,700
DraftKings = $6,200
Winston’s second stint as the Bucs quarterback this season has been significantly better than his first. He came through with another strong performance in Week 13 against the Panthers, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. His 66.7 percent completion percentage wasn’t anything to write home about, but it was key that he didn’t throw an interception. After being plagued by turnovers throughout his career, Winston has yet to be intercepted across two games since regaining a starting role.
It should be noted that his last two games have come against the 49ers and Panthers, both of which have their holes in pass coverage. The Saints aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts, though, since they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (279). This game being played at home is also a big plus for Winston considering how well the Saints play in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. His turnover history always leaves him with some risk, but there is also upside here in tournament play.
Baker Mayfield vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,800
Week 13 against the Texans was not one of Mayfield’s finer performances. He did throw for 397 yards, but he had only one touchdown and three interceptions. That broke a streak of five-straight games with at least two touchdowns and two straight games without an interception. With only 13 points, it also marked the first time in the last three games that the Browns failed to score at least 21 points.
A lot of Mayfield’s struggles last week might have just been because the Browns were on the road against the red-hot Texans, who have won nine straight. Mayfield gets a much easier task this week at home against the Panthers, who have allowed 27 touchdowns through the air. Mayfield’s pass attempts are sometimes limited due to how well Nick Chubb is running the ball, but he’s still someone to consider based on this matchup.
Josh Allen vs. New York Jets
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,500
Allen only completed 54.6 percent of his passes against the Dolphins last week, finishing with 231 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, he did a ton of damage with his legs, running for 135 yards on nine carries. This comes on the heels of rushing for 99 yards in Week 12 against the Jaguars. He actually has almost as many rushing touchdowns (four) as he does passing touchdowns (five) this season.
Lamar Jackson of the Ravens might grab all the headlines, but Allen’s ability to rack up rushing yards should not go unnoticed. He still has a lot of improving to do in the passing game and he might not be a consistent contributor in that area until next season. This is an opportunity to target him in DFS, though, considering how poorly the Jets have played. They’ve lost six straight games, one of them was 41-10 against the Bills when Matt Barkley was at quarterback.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Tom Brady vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $5,800
The Patriots are loaded at running back with Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead all finally healthy. They haven’t needed to rely as much on the arm of Brady, leaving him to throw a total of four touchdowns across his last five games. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league against the run, so the Patriots might not need Brady to throw much in Week 14, either. He’s not overly expensive on either site, but it still might be best to avoid him for your entry.
Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,200
The wheels have come off for the Lions. They are 1-5 over their last six games, which included brutal matchups against the Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, and Rams. The Cardinals might not have a good record, but they have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (220). Stafford has a total of four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last five games, leaving him with very little upside despite his cheap price.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Quarterback depth will be tested in Week 7 with a season-high four teams on a bye. Combine that with Chiefs and Falcons playing Sunday and Monday night, respectively, and great quarterbacks including Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan all won’t be available for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS. Let’s examine some quarterbacks to target and avoid as you craft your lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Tom Brady vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $6,100
Brady had nine touchdown passes across his first four games this year, but he failed to post more than 277 passing yards in any of those contests and had less than 250 passing yards twice. The return of Julian Edelman in Week 5 has been a big boost for Brady, who has thrown for at least 340 yards in both games with one of his favorite targets on the field. The Patriots are still without Rex Burkhead, but Sony Michel has done a great job in his absence to help make the Patriots offense one of the most potent in the league.
It should be noted that Brady’s success the last two games did come against the Colts and Chiefs, two teams that have struggled against the pass. The Bears have been middle of the pack in terms of passing defense, but they have already generated 10 interceptions. In one of the most shocking performances during Week 6, they were lit up by Dolphins backup quarterback Brock Osweiler for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Brady has so many weapons around him now that he still has a high floor even in what isn’t the greatest of matchups on the road.
Andrew Luck vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $6,200
Luck missed all of last season with a shoulder injury, but he’s returned to his productive ways this year. He’s already thrown for at least 300 yards in four of six games and has at least three touchdown passes in each of the last three games. His recent performance is especially impressive when you consider both T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle have missed time with injuries.
Working in Luck’s favor is that the Colts running game hasn’t been great and their defense gives up a lot of points. That has required him to attempt an average of 48 passes per game. Even though the Bills have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (219), the amount of passes Luck has to throw still gives him a high floor. The Bills might also have a hard time moving the ball with Josh Allen out due to his elbow injury, which could set the Colts up with some short fields.
Kirk Cousins vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $6,400
Cousins had arguably his worst game of the season Week 6, throwing for 233 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It marked the third time in the last four weeks that Cousins has failed to throw multiple touchdowns passes in a game, although he did help salvage his performance with a rushing touchdown. He also completed 70.6% of his passes in that game and has a 71.2% completion percentage for the season, overall.
The one thing that Cousins certainly isn’t lacking is weapons around him. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen may be the most dangerous wide receiver duo in the league and he has a great red zone target in tight end Kyle Rudolph. The Jets were lit up by Luck for 301 yards and four touchdowns last week and have shown to have some holes in their secondary, potentially setting up Cousins for a valuable performance.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Jameis Winston vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $6,300
Winston made his first start in Week 6 after serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. It was a great matchup against a porous Falcons secondary and he certainly didn’t disappoint, throwing for 395 yards and four touchdowns. However, he did throw two interceptions and has had problems with turnovers in his career.
Everything is shaping up for Winston to be a valuable performer from here on out. The Bucs rushing attack has been terrible, but Winston has plenty of excellent pass-catching options at wide receiver and tight end. Their defense has also been one of the worst in the league, which forces their offense to throw a lot to try and stay in games. The Browns defense has provided more resistance to opposing offenses this season and turnovers are always a concern with Winston, but he’s still someone to consider in tournament play.
Mitch Trubisky vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,600
The Bears went into their bye Week 5 riding the high of a 48-10 victory over the Bucs in Week 4. Trubisky exploded in that game for 354 yards and six touchdowns on only 26 passing attempts. Week 6 didn’t exactly bring a great matchup against the Dolphins, but Trubisky carried over his improved play by throwing for 316 yards and three touchdowns. He was aided by that game going into overtime, but he has now thrown at least two touchdown passes in three of his last four games.
Working in Trubisky’s favor Sunday is the fact that the Patriots have allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (15) behind only the Falcons and Bucs. He may also be required to throw the ball more to keep up with the Patriots offense. This game being played at home also helps his cause since he has 12 touchdowns across eight career games at Soldiers Field compared to just six over nine road contests.
Baker Mayfield vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,800
Mayfield had an ugly game Sunday, but his receivers didn’t exactly help his cause. Mayfield finished with an unsightly 47.8% completion percentage and has failed to complete more than 58.1% of his passes in any of his three starts. Not only did record just 238 passing yards and one touchdown, but Mayfield also threw two picks against the Chargers and picked up an ankle injury.
Initial reports have been positive about Mayfield’s injury, so everything is trending towards him playing against the Bucs. This is certainly a matchup to exploit considering the Bucs have not only allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league, but they’ve also allowed the most passing yards per game (356). They’ve only recorded one interception, as well. At this cheap price, Mayfield is a great option in tournament play.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Drew Brees vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $5,700
After finishing with only 23 touchdown passes last year, Brees also has 11 through five games. He still hasn’t thrown a pick and is averaging 331.6 passing yards per game, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. So, why should you avoid him Sunday? Well, for starters, the Ravens are tied for the fewest passing yards allowed per game (188) and have only allowed six scores through the air. With Mark Ingram also back from suspension, the Saints have their two-headed monster of Ingram and Alvin Kamara back. That duo produced 20 rushing touchdowns last season. Brees could be someone to avoid on both sites, but I’d especially stay away from him at his price on FanDuel.
Deshaun Watson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $5,500
Watson has constantly been under pressure this season. He was sacked seven times by the Bills on Sunday and has been sacked 25 times already this season. Although he has some talented receivers, it’s hard to have a lot of success when you don’t get any time to throw to them. Turnovers have been a problem, as well, with Watson throwing seven picks compared to nine touchdowns. The Jaguars defense hasn’t been as stout as last year, but they do have 14 sacks. They have also allowed only five touchdowns through the air, the fewest in the league. With limited upside, this isn’t shaping up to be a week to roll with Watson.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.
In each article, we’ll highlight some players that work for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also highlight some players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Tom Brady vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $7,200
Brady had another stellar campaign in 2017, finishing with 4,577 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. It marked the sixth time in the last seven seasons that he finished with at least 4,100 yards with the only time he didn’t reach that plateau being the 2016 season when he played only 12 games due to a suspension. He also threw just eight interceptions, marking his fourth-straight season with less than 10 picks.
There has been a lot of talk heading into Week 1 about the Patriots lack of wide receivers with Julian Edelman suspended. Chris Hogan will lead that unit for now, but Brady still has star tight end Rob Gronkowski at his disposal. He also has excellent pass-catching running backs in James White and Rex Burkhead. He’ll get a favorable matchup right out of the gates against a Texans defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game last year to opposing quarterbacks. They did add safety Tyrann Mathieu during the offseason, but their secondary is still ranked 25th by Pro Football Focus. Brady is a safe bet to have a productive Week 1.
Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,800
The Saints turned to a more run-heavy offense last season, which resulted in a down performance from Brees. He had a stellar 72% completion percentage, but his 536 pass attempts were his lowest mark since 2009. He also threw just 23 touchdown passes, breaking a streak of nine consecutive seasons with at least 30. On a positive note, he only threw eight interceptions, his fewest since 2004.
The Saints’ running game last year was led by the two-headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Ingram will be suspended for the first four games of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints relied a little more on the passing game to help spell Kamara. The Saints not only have star wideout Michael Thomas, but they also added Cameron Meredith to go along with Ted Ginn Jr. A healthy Ben Watson could be a sneaky valuable weapon at tight end, as well. The Buccaneers have the 31st ranked secondary according to Pro Football Focus, leaving Brees with a high floor for this contest.
Cam Newton vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $6,900
Although Newton’s 59.1% completion percentage last year was a significant improvement from 2016, it still resulted in his fourth straight season with a completion percentage under 60%. His 3,302 passing yards were his lowest total since 2014 and he threw 16 interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns. He was a tremendous weapon in the rushing attack, though, gaining a career-high 754 yards on the ground. He also finished with six rushing scores and has at least five rushing touchdowns in every season of his career.
Part of the reason for Newton’s poor passing numbers last year may have been due to his lack of weapons. Greg Olsen missed much of the season due to injury and the Panthers were very thin at wide receiver. Olsen enters this season healthy and they added Torrey Smith and rookie D.J. Moore to go along with the emerging Devin Funchess at wide receiver. While Newton might not have as high of a ceiling as Brady and Brees, his ability to run the ball gives him a high floor most weeks.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Philip Rivers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,400
Rivers is still posting big numbers as he enters his 16th season in the NFL. He finished 2017 with 4,515 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. He also attempted at least 570 passes and had a completion percentage of at least 60% for the fourth straight season. If you play season-long fantasy, he’s one of the more underrated safe bets to provide valuable numbers at the quarterback position.
He enters this season with plenty of weapons around him. Keenan Allen has been one of the best wide receivers in the league and promising young wide receiver Mike Williams is finally healthy heading into this year, providing Rivers with another big red zone target. The Chargers lost Hunter Henry to a torn ACL, but just brought back Antonio Gates, who has developed a great relationship with Rivers over their long careers together. The Chiefs were tied for the eighth-most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last year and might be even worse in 2018 after trading star cornerback Marcus Peters to the Rams.
Andy Dalton vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,800
Dalton had what may have been the worst season of his career last year. He averaged a career-low 207.5 yards per game and his 59.9% completion percentage was his worst mark since his rookie campaign. He only had 15 combined interceptions in 2015 and 2016, but he threw 12 picks last year.
The Bengals offense could be better this season with Joe Mixon looking to break out in his second season in the league. They still have star receiver A.J. Green to go with an emerging John Ross, who opened some eyes in the preseason. Don’t be surprised if they have a huge Week 1 against the Colts, who have the league’s worst secondary according to Pro Football Focus. At this cheap price, Dalton has the potential to provide significant value.
Case Keenum vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,100
Keenum earned a starting role with the Vikings last year and helped lead them into the playoffs. Although his 3,547 passing yards wasn’t off the charts, he had a 67.6% completion percentage to go along with 22 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. The Vikings made a big splash bringing in Kirk Cousins during the offseason, which ultimately resulted in Keenum joining the Broncos.
Keenum had two extremely talented pass catchers with the Vikings in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. He’ll see a downgrade at that position with the Broncos, but Demaryius and Emmanuel Sanders are still a formidable duo. They also drafted the very promising Courtland Sutton and should have a solid rushing attack with Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. The “Legion of Boom” era is a thing of the past in Seattle as their secondary looks susceptible this year, especially with Earl Thomas still holding out. Even if Thomas does return to the team before this game, Keenum still has some upside in tournament play.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,700
Jimmy Garopplo started off his career with the 49ers in style. He only played in six games, five of which were starts, but he averaged 260 yards per contest. His seven passing touchdowns weren’t great, but he had a 67.4% completion percentage and showed a glimpse of what many believe is a bright future in the NFL. However, he draws a tough matchup this week against a very stout Vikings defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year. There will be plenty of weeks that you want to roll with Garoppolo for your entry, but this might not be one of them.
Patrick Mahomes II vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,000
The Chiefs dealt Alex Smith to the Redskins to replace Cousins, handing over the reins to Mahomes. Selected 10th overall in the 2017 draft, it was only a matter of time before Mahomes took over the starting quarterback job. He has a big arm with talented playmakers around him including Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt, which should serve him well. However, he could be turnover prone and may go through some growing pains. Although cornerback Jason Verrett has already been lost for the season with a torn Achilles, the Chargers still have an extremely talented secondary and an excellent pass rush anchored by Joey Bosa. I’d much rather take a chance on someone like Dalton rather than Mahomes if you want to go with a cheap quarterback in tournament play.
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
We’ve arrived at the Conference Championships and are down to four teams fighting for a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy. For Brady, it’s just another ordinary January, but for the rest, this is a chance to put their stamp on a franchise that took a chance on them when no other team in the NFL would.
Unfortunately Championship weekend also signals the end of the DFS football season until late August. I’m assuming Draftkings will continue to run out single-game slates, but I haven’t played those, so I’m not sure if I’ll be playing. Because there are only two games this week, I’m going to run through my write up a little differently. Opposed to going position by position, I’ll break down both championship games and write off my favorite plays for the games. But before I do that, I wanted to go over some strategies I like to employ when playing only two game slates.
I’ve had some pretty good success over the past two season with the two-game prime time slates. They’re entertaining because you’re able to keep a close eye on each game and every play matters. Ownership is easier to predict, and the focus should be more on getting the best players into your lineup opposed to finding players with low ownership. Sure if you want to fire away multi-entries in the $4 Final Four with $400K + entries you can get crazy with playing a less than 10% owned player, but that’s not the ideal strategy for two-game slates.
The key to playing two-game slates is trying to figure out what the game flow of each game is going to be. We usually use Vegas lines to give us an idea of how the experts think the game will play out, but for two games slates, we need to combine that with our opinions of how the game script is going to go. You should always take a stance on whether you think a game total is too high or too low, but it’s important to set your lineup up with positive correlation to ensure you get the most out of your lineup.
You’ll see a lot of lineups this weekend with game stacks and even team stacks. We’ll likely see several lineups with people rostering all of the offensive Patriots and bringing it back with some Jaguars in hopes of accumulating all of the points in that game. The best way to do that is by running through the game script scenarios:
I.e., If the Patriots score 28 points, I think Brady will account for 3 touchdowns and their running back [Lewis, Burkhead, White] will account for the 4th touchdown. If the Pats score early, that opens up the passing defense to play Prevent Defense, which creates throwing lanes over the middle for Bortles. That’s a general idea of how I generate game stacks; the tricky part is finding which players have the highest touchdown equity and playing them in your lineups. I’ll do my best to break down how I see these two games playing out, but you should come up with your theory of the games this week and play lineups accordingly.
Jaguars (19.5) at Patriots (27) | NE [-9] | Over/Under 46.5
New England Patriots (27)
* News *
T. Brady – limited on Thursday (hand) – expected to play
R. Burkhead – limited on Thursday (knee) – expected to play
For the second consecutive week, the Patriots have the best Vegas numbers of all the teams on the slate. They are the largest favorites (-7), have the highest implied total (27), and have the highest game total (46.6). The difference from last week is that the Pats are not going up against the mediocre Titans defense again. They are going up against the Jags who ranked fourth DVOA in total defense, and first in passing defense, per Football Outsiders.
The Jags are coming off of a week where they allowed the Steelers to put up 42 points and 545 total yards (462 pass, 83 rush). That is only the second time the Jags defense has allowed more than 40 points this season (44 to 49ers and 42 to Steelers). While this defense is far from one that offense would like to face, they are far from unbeatable.
A very detailed article by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis broke down the secret to beating the Jaguars pass defense and essentially blueprinted the Patriots game plan. This is a must-read for anyone trying to figure out how the Patriots will attack this Jaguars defense. Check out the article here. Onto DFS.
You are surely going to want to get your exposure to the Patriots offense. But the question is where? As a team with an implied total near four touchdowns, that generally bodes well for Tom Brady ($7,700). But as a big home favorite and in a matchup against a defense that funnels offensive production to running backs, which also bodes well for the New England running backs. So which way should you go?
After reading Sharps article is crystal clear the best way to attack the Jags is over the middle with at most two wide receiver sets. They have a strong defensive line and secondary but are average at linebacker. That opens things up for Gronk and the running backs. So I’m looking to build Brady stacks with Gronk ($7,900) and one, possibly two of the New England running backs. Brady and Gronk are the top plays on the board and I will have them on 70% of my lineups.
Unfortunately, the New England running back situation is far from a clear picture. Dion Lewis ($8,100) is the slates highest price running back and has done exceptionally well over the past four weeks, scoring five touchdowns during that span. But with the news that Rex Burkhead ($5,400) will likely return for the first time in three weeks, it could eat away from Lewis’ production. On top of Burkhead’s return, we saw last week James White ($4,900) eat into Lewis’ production by scoring two touchdowns against the Titans.
I don’t have a problem with playing any one of these running backs with Brady because they are all capable of catching the ball. I still think Lewis will get the majority of the workload even with all three backs active. Even though Burkhead may return I strongly think White will have more opportunity over him because he was productive with his touches last week and the Pats are likely to ease Burkhead back into action. I really like White for the savings he brings, and I’m leaning toward a hard fade on Burkhead simply because on two-game slates you have to take a stand on questionable players.
I’d rank them Lewis, White, Burkhead.
I don’t mind pairing one or two of these running backs with Brady because I am likely not to stack Brady with any one of his wide receivers. As Sharp’s article pointed out, the best way to target the Jags is over the middle and with the running backs. I don’t like picking on Ramsey or Bouye on the corners. If I had to rank the Pats receivers
I’d go Chris Hogan ($5,000), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), Danny Amendola ($5,500). But none of these come close to Gronk.
Last week, the Jags allowed Steelers tight end Vance McDonald to a team-high 10 catches. Imagine what Gronk will do if he’s funneled with 16 targets that McDonald saw last week. Gronk is might be the best play of the entire slate.
PATRIOTS PLAYS:
T. Brady, R. Gronkowski, D. Lewis, J. White, C. Hogan, B. Cooks
Jacksonville Jaguars (19.5)
* News *
L. Fournette – limited on Thursday (ankle) – expected to play
T. Gipson (FS) – missed practice on Thursday (foot) – expected to play
On the Jags side of the ball, we have a few intriguing options, starting with the quarterback. Don’t throw up, but Blake Bortles ($5,000) is a popular punt play that is worthy of your consideration. NFL coverage on every station has bashed Bortles’ inconsistent play, but somehow he has gotten the Jags to the AFC championship game. In his two playoff games, Bortles has completed only 53% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 301 yards with 2 touchdowns. Those numbers are a far cry from what you’d like to see from a quarterback in a championship game, but Bortles has added some production with his legs to make up for his lack of production through the air. In the past two games, Bortles has 123 rushing yards on 15 attempts (8.2 YPC). The added rushing production has made him rosterable considering his minimum priced salary.
Now Bortles faces the Patriots defense that ranked 21st DVOA during the regular season but isn’t as bad as their ranking suggest. The Patriots haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since week 6. However, even though the Patriots are much improved, if the game script goes as Vegas and several other analysts suggest, Bortles could be looking at plenty of garbage time opportunities to reach his value at only $5k. Even if the Jags manage an early lead, it bodes well for Bortles because he owns a passer rating of 103 when playing with a lead.
If I’m playing Bortles or trying to find a Jaguar receiver to create a game stack with I’m rostering Dede Westbrook ($3,900) or Marquise Lee ($4,400). Despite only seeing 9 targets combined last week, Westbrook and Lee still played over 65% of the snaps last week. Since the Jags got their full receiving corp healthy, Lee and Westbrook have led the way in snaps and targets, while Keelan Cole ($3,500) and Allen Hurns ($3,300) have split time in the slot. Although the best way to attack the Patriots secondary is receivers in the slot, I still prefer Westbrook and Lee over Cole and Hurns because they are more likely to be on the field.
My rankings for the Jags receivers are Westbrook, Lee, Cole, and Hurns.
The real focal point of the Jags offense is their running game. Leonard Fournette ($7,200) is the lone back on the slate that doesn’t have to worry about touches. Fournette is the only running back that is guaranteed to touch the ball over 20 times. He’s also the lone back that doesn’t have to share touches with anyone. The issue with Fournette is that he could suffer from a negative game script. If the game goes the way Vegas projects, that could limit Fournette’s rushes, and he has only averaged 3 receptions over the past four games. On top of that, Belichick gameplans to take away the opposing offenses’ best player and that means Fournette will likely see 7 to 8 men in the box. The positive side of rostering Fournette is that you get nice touchdown equity. Despite averaging a modest 4.4 YPC last week, he accounted for 3 of the 5 offensive touchdowns. It’s worth noting that the Patriots have only given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year and last week held Derrick Henry 2.3 YPC. The matchup and negative game script make me cautious in rostering Fournette this week despite his $1,500 drop off from last week.
JAGUARS:
B. Bortles, D. Westbrook, M. Lee, L. Fournette *only if you are fading Brady and stacking with Jags DST*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships
The NFL DFS season comes to a close with the Conference Championships on Sunday. Thank you for reading all of our articles throughout this season. We hope we were able to help you craft a winning entry more often than not. Let’s ride off into the sunset with one more big payday. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Tom Brady vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,700
FanDuel = $9,000
Brady is well known for his success in the playoffs and started out true to form last weekend, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. He has by far the most playoff experience of any of the quarterbacks still playing, appearing in 11 career Conference Championship games. He threw for 2,756 yards and 15 touchdowns in those games. The Jaguars have an elite defense, but most teams still left standing at this point are going to be tough to score against. The Jaguars did allow 42 points to the Steelers last week, so they aren’t impenetrable. Brady is the most expensive quarterback, but he also has the highest upside.
Case Keenum vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,600
FanDuel = $8,000
Keenum carried his excellent play during the regular season into the playoffs, throwing for 318 yards and one touchdown last week against the Saints. The fact that he played so well and helped lead an improbable comeback was especially impressive when you consider it was his first career start in the playoffs. The Eagles defense is no pushover, but they did allow 24 passing touchdowns this season, tied with the Patriots for the most among the four teams still playing. If you don’t want to pay up for Brady, Keenum should be the next best option.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Leonard Fournette vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,200
FanDuel = $8,500
Fournette is the one clear workhorse left at running back in the playoffs. He rushed 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round, marking his ninth game with at least 20 carries this season. He’s been fairly involved in the passing game as well, receiving at least four targets in five of his last six games. Although the Patriots allowed only six rushing touchdowns all season, they did allow an average of 114.8 rushing yards per game, placing them in the bottom half of the league. With plenty of carries likely on tap this week, Fournette is an excellent option for your entry.
Dion Lewis vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $8,100
FanDuel = $7,700
Lewis racked up yardage against the Titans last week, rushing 15 times for 62 yards and hauling in nine of ten targets for 79 yards. It marked his third-straight game with at least 100 total yards, all of which came with Rex Burkhead (knee) injured. Burkhead is expected to be available to return this week, but he might not be able to resume his normal workload right away. Lewis has done nothing to lose any touches either. The Jaguars allowed 116.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the most of any of the four remaining teams. Look for Lewis to provide enough value again in this game.
Latavius Murray vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $6,900
Murray has been splitting time with Jerick McKinnon in the Vikings backfield but had 20 rushing attempts last week compared to only eight for McKinnon. He rushed for just 50 yards, but he did manage to score a touchdown. He’s had a knack for reaching the end zone lately, scoring at least one touchdown in three of his last four games. The Eagles are tough against the run, but Murray can still provide value at this price based on his touchdown potential.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Adam Thielen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $7,400
FanDuel = $7,400
Thielen set career-highs across the board this season, finishing in the top-10 in the league in targets (142), receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,276). He only had four touchdowns, but still provided tremendous value in DFS most weeks. He showed no signs of slowing down last week against the Saints, hauling in six of nine targets for 74 yards. The Eagles allowed Julio Jones to record nine catches and 101 receiving yards for the Falcons in the Divisional Round, so they can give up some big performances. Volume alone makes Thielen worth consideration.
Stefon Diggs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,900
FanDuel = $6,700
Diggs had 20 fewer receptions this regular season than he did in the previous year, but a lot of that was because his catch percentage dropped by almost nine percent. He still received 95 targets and finished with a career-high eight touchdowns. He made the most of his catches as well, averaging 13.3 yards per reception this season compared to only 10.8 yards per reception last year. Last week against the Saints, he caught six of 10 targets, finishing with 136 yards and, of course, the game-winning touchdown. Playing both he and Thielen in your lineup is not a bad idea when you consider the other options available during a limited week.
Marqise Lee vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $4,400
FanDuel = $6,100
Simply put, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has struggled to throw the ball in two games during the playoffs, combining to complete 26-of-49 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns. He’s provided value with rushing yards, but that doesn’t help his receivers. The Jaguars might need to throw the ball more Sunday to keep up with the Patriots offense, which could mean added production for Lee. Lee received six targets last week against the Steelers and had 95 targets during the regular season as one of Bortles’ go-to options. Of all the receivers on the Jaguars, Lee might have the highest ceiling.
Chris Hogan vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,000
FanDuel = $6,100
Hogan only caught one of his four targets last week but salvaged the day by cashing in that one catch for a touchdown. Although he only played nine games during the regular season, he finished with a career-high five touchdown receptions. He averaged 6.6 targets per game, so he’s played a significant role in the Patriots offense when healthy. There aren’t a lot of great cheap options with so many excellent defenses taking the field Sunday, but Hogan’s touchdown potential gives him upside.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Rob Gronkowski vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,900
FanDuel = $8,400
Gronkowski had another dominant playoff performance against the Titans last week, catching six passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. In 11 career playoff games, Gronkowski has 835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. The Jaguars limited opposing tight ends to just five touchdowns during the regular season, but facing Gronkowski is an entirely different animal. He’s clearly the tight end with the highest ceiling in the Conference Championships.
Kyle Rudolph vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $4,500
FanDuel = $6,100
Rudolph finished with 83 receptions and 840 yards in 2016 but had only 57 receptions for 532 yards this year. He saw a drastic decrease in targets, but still managed to score eight touchdowns, which was actually one more than last year. The Vikings look for him when they get in close as he received 18 targets inside the red zone this season. If you don’t want to pay up for Gronkowski, take a chance on Rudolph possibly scoring a touchdown in this game.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $4,900
Eagles quarterback Nick Foles wasn’t overly impressive against the Falcons last week, throwing for 246 yards and no touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup Sunday against a Vikings defense that allowed the second-fewest net passing yards per game (192) and the fewest touchdown passes (13) in the league during the regular season. With six interceptions in their last four games, the Vikings defense has excellent value Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $3,500
FanDuel = $5,200
With Bortles struggling, the Patriots defense could be in line for a big performance. They don’t create a ton of turnovers, but they do have 18 sacks in their last three games. Bortles really struggled on the road during the regular season, throwing only six touchdown passes to go along with eight interceptions away from EverBank Field. That’s not a recipe for success against the Patriots, who are dominant at home.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Next week will feature a small two-game slate with the Conference Championships. This week’s NFL Divisional round is the final four-game slate of the NFL season. We have some exciting games this week on both the NFC and AFC, so let’s dive in.
Vegas
The Vegas numbers this week features a little bit of everything. We have the Patriots as the team with the best Vegas data, and we have two games that feature pretty close spreads in Minnesota and Philadelphia.
The Patriots are also featured in the game with the highest game total with the over/under sitting at 47. But unfortunately, the Patriots dominate that game with as 13.5 points favorites over the Titans (16.75), which makes the game not ideal for stacking in hopes of a two-way shootout.
The Saints (20.75) at Vikings (25.25) is not far behind with a game total of 46. The Vikings are favored by 4.5 points at home so that game if any, seems most likely to shoot out between the two teams.
The other two games Falcons @ Eagles and Jaguars @ Steelers both have a game total sitting at 41. The Steelers (24.25) are 7.5 point favorites at home, while the Falcons (22) are the only road team favored this week by 3 points.
Injuries aren’t expected to play a significant role this week. But DeMarco Murray has already been ruled out for the second consecutive week, and Antonio Brown is fully expected to be back on the field for the Steelers. Be sure to follow our News page at Lineup Labs for any last minute news.
Quarterbacks
Case Keenum ($6,100) – Sitting in the mid-range of quarterback pricing, Keenum is my cash game play this week. He’s $900 cheaper than Brady at the top, and $1,100 more expensive than Blake Bortles. Keenum hasn’t exactly set the world on fire over his past four games but comes into the week with the second-best Vegas data of all quarterbacks. Keenum has thrown at least two touchdowns in four of his last six games and is averaging over 30 attempts during that span. The Saints pass defense is respectable with Marshon Lattimore (4th via PFF), Ken Crawley (28th via PFF), and (PJ Williams 83rd via PFF) at cornerback, but they have also given up 58.38 DK points over the past two weeks to Cam (28.66) and Winston (29.72). Over the last two games, the Saints have given up a total of 712 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 69 rushing yards and a touchdown. Keenum also gets the benefit of having an extra week to prepare and playing the game at home in an indoor stadium. I like the savings with Keenum.
Tom Brady ($7,000) – Brady is in a class of his own this week. With the highest projected team total at home against the best possible matchup in the playoffs. Brady is almost a sure bet to lead the quarterbacks in scoring. The reason why he’s a tournament play for me is that I’d rather use the savings at wide receiver this week. There’s not much convincing I need to do to justify playing Brady at home in the playoffs.
Running backs
Le’Veon Bell ($9,600) – As the case last week with Todd Gurley, this week atop the running back pricing, Bell is hugely overpriced from the other running backs and in a far from the ideal matchup. Bell is $1,800 more expensive than the second highest priced back Kamara ($7,800) yet; he’s still the best bet to reach value with the highest floor and ceiling. This week Bell comes in averaging over 20 DK points for the month and faces a Jags defense that forces opposing offenses to run the ball. The Steelers are a home favorite (-7.5) going up against the Jags defense that picked off Ben Roethlisberger 5 times in their matchup this season. With Antonio Brown potentially playing decoy out on the field, the Steelers could continue to force the ball to Bell who has at least six passing targets in his past seven games. Bell should be in line for 25-30 touches this week in a game that will likely feature terrible weather. According to CBS Pittsburgh, the game temperature is likely to sit in the teens at the start of the game and could see snow flurries and wind speeds near 20MPH. If that weather holds up, there’s no reason why the Steelers would test the Jags secondary and avoid giving the ball to Bell.
Devonta Freeman ($5,900) – Despite only getting two receiving targets last week and averaging 3.7 yards per carry, Freeman was able to turn in an atrocious game into a modest one on the road against the Rams. While I generally don’t like playing running backs on the road, Freeman comes into play as a top 3 projected running back to reach value this week. Freeman has actually produced better on the road than at home this season and has had two of his best games on the season on the road against the Bucs (33.4) and Lions (25.8). At a sub $6,000 price, I like playing Freeman as a favorite going up against the Nick Foles led Eagles who could turn the ball over, which would lead to a shorter field for Atlanta. Freeman should expect to see anywhere from 18-23 touches this week.
Dion Lewis ($6,600)/James White ($4,300)/Rex Burkhead ($5,700) – It’s worth monitoring the Patriots running back situation. Both White and Burkhead returned to practice this week, and the Pats are fully expected to have their trio of running backs available. If Burkhead plays, he is expected to be limited. When he was in the mix, White saw a drop off in playing time with Lewis being the early down backs and Burkhead working out of the passing game. If they all are active, I’d only consider playing Lewis for salary relief. But if only Lewis and White are active I don’t mind playing White because of the work he could see in the passing game and his cheap price tag.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks ($7,000) – From the high priced range, I like Brandin Cooks this week a tad bit more than Adam Thielen ($7,600) for the savings. Cooks is a cheaper way to get exposure to Brady and has been a target monster for the Patriots passing attack this season. Cooks will be facing Adoree’ Jackson who ranks 39th via PFF, but we saw last Tyreek Hill have success against the Titans secondary last week. It’s also worth monitoring if Chris Hogan will play. He’s expected to but if he misses that should bump up Cooks’ target projection.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,700) – Sanu continues to remain involved in the Falcons passing attack over the past four games. In his last four games, Sanu has 30 targets and 17 receptions for 200 yards. He’s affordable under 6K and only needs 5 for 70 to reach value for you. He should see a lot of Jalen Mills who’s a decent cornerback, but if Ronald Darby shadows Julio Jones, Ryan could force more targets Sanu’s way.
Nelson Agholor ($4,800) – Agholor has seen an uptick in production since Nick Foles took over at quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. He’s seen his market share of targets rise, while Alshon Jeffery has seen his targets decrease. In three games with Foles as the quarterback, Jeffrey has 14 targets to Agholor’s 19. Agholor has upside to make a big play anytime; he’s on the field so one big catch could give you all need to make value.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($5,800) – Ertz has been one of the few Eagles players whose production has not faltered since Nick Foles took over for Wentz. In the first two full games with Foles under center, Ertz has 25 targets and 15 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown. On top of that, Ertz has five targets within the red zone with Foles under center. Of course, Gronk is viewed as the top tight end option on the board, but Ertz has been just as productive as Gronk this season. If Ertz is going to continue to be fed with targets, it almost makes him a lock and play with a $1,300 savings from Gronk.
Delanie Walker ($5,000) – Walker is coming off of a nice game against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. He saw 8 targets and 6 catches for 74 yards. Who knows, he may have even added a touchdown if Mariota didn’t do that touchdown pass to himself within the 5-yard line. He’s the number one receiver for the Titans, and if the game script goes as Vegas thinks it will go, Mariota will be throwing quite a bit. Walker could potentially see double-digit targets, and if he catches 7 for 70, he doesn’t kill your lineup.
Defense
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900) – The chalky plays are going to be the Steelers and the Eagles. I like saving the salary and taking a shot with the Vikings defense. The Saints running backs showed last week that they could be stopped and the Vikings defense is better than the Panthers. Defense is so volatile, so I will almost always look for the team that offers up the most value per dollar.
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.
Tier 1
Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.
DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.
The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.
The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen
Tier 2
Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.
It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.
Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.
Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.
Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis
Tier 3
Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.
Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.
Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.
Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.
The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).
Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
Tier 4
The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.
Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.
Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.
Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.
Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett
Tier 5
Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.
As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.
After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.
Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant
Tier 6
Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.
I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.
Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.
Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.
With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams
Tier 7
Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season. He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.
After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!
I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle
Tier 8
If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.
The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:
4 players have rushed for 1,000+ yards in 10 seasons:
Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Curtis MartinFrank Gore needs 139 yards vs HOU to become the 5th.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 26, 2017
I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.
Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!