Week 7 brings yet another main Sunday slate in DFS with no Christian McCaffrey since the Panthers will be on a bye. We still have some excellent options to choose from, though, including some cheaper players with upside.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – Running Backs
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.
Only a few of the top running backs won’t be available for the main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 10, leaving plenty of great options to choose from across the price scale. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Todd Gurley vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $10,800
DraftKings = $9,400
The Rams were caught in a shootout with the Saints in Week 9, which finally led to a subpar game from Gurley. He averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry, but he only finished with 68 yards on 13 attempts. The Saints held him in check in the passing game, as well, with Gurley finishing with six catches on seven targets for 11 yards. Even though Gurley managed to record a rushing touchdown, he had just one touchdown for the second straight week.
If you paid up to get Gurley in your entry last week, you were left disappointed, but don’t let that cloud your judgment moving forward. This is a much better matchup against a far inferior Seahawks offense, which should lead to more rushing attempts for Gurley. The Seahawks are also allowing an average of 4.8 yards-per-carry, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. When these two teams met earlier this season, Gurley finished with 113 total yards and three touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $8,500
The Chiefs had another great offensive performance against the Browns in Week 9 and Hunt was right in the thick of the action. He had 17 carries for 90 yards, and although he only received two targets, he caught one of them for a 50-yard touchdown. Add in his two rushing touchdowns and it was his third multi-touchdown game of the season. A feat even more impressive than that is that he has at least one touchdown in eight straight contests.
With the ease at which the Chiefs move the ball, Hunt is going to get plenty of opportunities for touchdowns. This is another stellar matchup for him against the Cardinals, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (143.1). Their 12 rushing touchdowns allowed is also tied for the second-most, so don’t hesitate to pay up for Hunt.
Melvin Gordon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,000
A bye week came at just the right time for the Chargers. Gordon missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury, but a bye in Week 8 helped him to miss only that one game. He certainly didn’t look hampered at all against the Seahawks on Sunday, turning 16 carries into 113 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in his last four games that Gordon finished with at least 6.9 yards-per-carry.
Week 10 brings a matchup against the Raiders, who looked like a trainwreck against the 49ers last week. In their first meeting this season, Gordon had 120 total yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. With the Raiders allowing the most rushing yards per game (144.5), expect Gordon to have another strong performance in their rematch.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tevin Coleman vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,400
Coleman’s performance against the Redskins in Week 9 was impressive. They’ve had one of the better run defenses in the league this year, but Coleman still finished with 88 rushing yards on just 13 carries. He did plenty of damage in the passing game, as well, hauling in five of seven targets for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Those are the only two receiving touchdowns the Redskins have allowed to running backs all season.
Coleman is still sharing the backfield duties with Ito Smith, but Coleman has been on the field for exactly 57 percent of the Falcons offensive plays in each of their last three games. Smith wasn’t on the field more than 46 percent of the time in any of those contests. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (138.9) and the most rushing touchdowns (14), leaving Coleman with excellent upside.
David Johnson vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $6,800
If you play in season-long fantasy football, Johnson is right up there with some of the biggest disappointments in the league. The Cardinals finally moved on from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy before Week 8, which really can only help Johnson at this point. His first game with Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator wasn’t exactly off the charts, but he finished with 100 total yards against the 49ers, marking just the second time this season he has recorded at least 100 total yards in a game.
The Cardinals had a bye last week, which should be helpful as they adopt Leftwich’s new offense. He’s already stated his desire to get Johnson more involved, at least bringing him back onto the radar in DFS. This is certainly a favorable matchup for Johnson to exploit with the Chiefs allowing a league-high 5.2 yards-per-carry. There is risk involved here, but Johnson could be someone to consider for your entry.
Duke Johnson Jr. vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,700
One of the more perplexing things we’ve seen this season is the Browns usage of Johnson. After finishing with 74 catches on 93 targets last year, Johnson only had 20 receptions on 29 targets through their first eight games. The Browns decided to clean house by firing their head coach and offensive coordinator last week, which immediately provided positive results for Johnson. With the Browns trying to keep up with the Chiefs, Johnson caught all nine of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
It was about time the Browns got Johnson more involved. They aren’t exactly deep at wide receiver, so it would seem to remain in their best interest to keep throwing passes Johnson’s way. If he can get similar usage in Week 10, he could once again have a big stat line considering the Falcons have allowed a league-high 68 receptions to opposing running backs. At this cheap price. Johnson could be well worth the risk in tournament play.
Jalen Richard vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,800
Few losses this season have been as embarrassing as the one the Raiders suffered at the hands of the 49ers in Week 9. With Nick Mullens making his first career start, they managed to blow out the Raiders, 34-3. Richard only had two carries in that contest, but running the ball is not his forte. He did catch all four of his targets for 45 yards, marking his fourth-straight game with at least four targets.
After the Raiders dealt Amari Cooper to the Cowboys and lost Marshawn Lynch to injury, their offense doesn’t have a ton of talented playmakers left. Their defense has played poorly as well, which should leave with some early deficits to try and make up. In those situations, Richard should be heavily involved in catching passes out of the backfield. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers race out to an early lead, setting things up nicely for Richard to provide value.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Leonard Fournette vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $6,300
Fournette injured his hamstring in the first game of the season against the Giants, which forced him to miss the subsequent two games. He tried to return in Week 4, but couldn’t make it through that contest and hasn’t played since. After having a bye in Week 9, everything is pointing towards Fournette taking the field against the Colts. Although he can be a major asset when healthy, it might be best to make sure he can make it through an entire game before you start playing him in DFS again.
Adrian Peterson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700
Peterson’s success with the Redskins has been surprising. After looking ineffective with the Saints and Cardinals last year, Peterson has already rushed for at least 96 yards in a game five times this season. However, his prognosis going forward looks extremely bleak with the Redskins offensive line decimated by injuries. Not only have they lost guards Brandon Schreff (pectoral) and Shawn Lauvao (knee) for the season, but tackle Trent Williams (thumb) is also a couple of weeks away from returning. With a bunch of backups blocking for him, Peterson isn’t very appealing at this price.
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
We’ve arrived at the Conference Championships and are down to four teams fighting for a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy. For Brady, it’s just another ordinary January, but for the rest, this is a chance to put their stamp on a franchise that took a chance on them when no other team in the NFL would.
Unfortunately Championship weekend also signals the end of the DFS football season until late August. I’m assuming Draftkings will continue to run out single-game slates, but I haven’t played those, so I’m not sure if I’ll be playing. Because there are only two games this week, I’m going to run through my write up a little differently. Opposed to going position by position, I’ll break down both championship games and write off my favorite plays for the games. But before I do that, I wanted to go over some strategies I like to employ when playing only two game slates.
I’ve had some pretty good success over the past two season with the two-game prime time slates. They’re entertaining because you’re able to keep a close eye on each game and every play matters. Ownership is easier to predict, and the focus should be more on getting the best players into your lineup opposed to finding players with low ownership. Sure if you want to fire away multi-entries in the $4 Final Four with $400K + entries you can get crazy with playing a less than 10% owned player, but that’s not the ideal strategy for two-game slates.
The key to playing two-game slates is trying to figure out what the game flow of each game is going to be. We usually use Vegas lines to give us an idea of how the experts think the game will play out, but for two games slates, we need to combine that with our opinions of how the game script is going to go. You should always take a stance on whether you think a game total is too high or too low, but it’s important to set your lineup up with positive correlation to ensure you get the most out of your lineup.
You’ll see a lot of lineups this weekend with game stacks and even team stacks. We’ll likely see several lineups with people rostering all of the offensive Patriots and bringing it back with some Jaguars in hopes of accumulating all of the points in that game. The best way to do that is by running through the game script scenarios:
I.e., If the Patriots score 28 points, I think Brady will account for 3 touchdowns and their running back [Lewis, Burkhead, White] will account for the 4th touchdown. If the Pats score early, that opens up the passing defense to play Prevent Defense, which creates throwing lanes over the middle for Bortles. That’s a general idea of how I generate game stacks; the tricky part is finding which players have the highest touchdown equity and playing them in your lineups. I’ll do my best to break down how I see these two games playing out, but you should come up with your theory of the games this week and play lineups accordingly.
Jaguars (19.5) at Patriots (27) | NE [-9] | Over/Under 46.5
New England Patriots (27)
* News *
T. Brady – limited on Thursday (hand) – expected to play
R. Burkhead – limited on Thursday (knee) – expected to play
For the second consecutive week, the Patriots have the best Vegas numbers of all the teams on the slate. They are the largest favorites (-7), have the highest implied total (27), and have the highest game total (46.6). The difference from last week is that the Pats are not going up against the mediocre Titans defense again. They are going up against the Jags who ranked fourth DVOA in total defense, and first in passing defense, per Football Outsiders.
The Jags are coming off of a week where they allowed the Steelers to put up 42 points and 545 total yards (462 pass, 83 rush). That is only the second time the Jags defense has allowed more than 40 points this season (44 to 49ers and 42 to Steelers). While this defense is far from one that offense would like to face, they are far from unbeatable.
A very detailed article by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis broke down the secret to beating the Jaguars pass defense and essentially blueprinted the Patriots game plan. This is a must-read for anyone trying to figure out how the Patriots will attack this Jaguars defense. Check out the article here. Onto DFS.
You are surely going to want to get your exposure to the Patriots offense. But the question is where? As a team with an implied total near four touchdowns, that generally bodes well for Tom Brady ($7,700). But as a big home favorite and in a matchup against a defense that funnels offensive production to running backs, which also bodes well for the New England running backs. So which way should you go?
After reading Sharps article is crystal clear the best way to attack the Jags is over the middle with at most two wide receiver sets. They have a strong defensive line and secondary but are average at linebacker. That opens things up for Gronk and the running backs. So I’m looking to build Brady stacks with Gronk ($7,900) and one, possibly two of the New England running backs. Brady and Gronk are the top plays on the board and I will have them on 70% of my lineups.
Unfortunately, the New England running back situation is far from a clear picture. Dion Lewis ($8,100) is the slates highest price running back and has done exceptionally well over the past four weeks, scoring five touchdowns during that span. But with the news that Rex Burkhead ($5,400) will likely return for the first time in three weeks, it could eat away from Lewis’ production. On top of Burkhead’s return, we saw last week James White ($4,900) eat into Lewis’ production by scoring two touchdowns against the Titans.
I don’t have a problem with playing any one of these running backs with Brady because they are all capable of catching the ball. I still think Lewis will get the majority of the workload even with all three backs active. Even though Burkhead may return I strongly think White will have more opportunity over him because he was productive with his touches last week and the Pats are likely to ease Burkhead back into action. I really like White for the savings he brings, and I’m leaning toward a hard fade on Burkhead simply because on two-game slates you have to take a stand on questionable players.
I’d rank them Lewis, White, Burkhead.
I don’t mind pairing one or two of these running backs with Brady because I am likely not to stack Brady with any one of his wide receivers. As Sharp’s article pointed out, the best way to target the Jags is over the middle and with the running backs. I don’t like picking on Ramsey or Bouye on the corners. If I had to rank the Pats receivers
I’d go Chris Hogan ($5,000), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), Danny Amendola ($5,500). But none of these come close to Gronk.
Last week, the Jags allowed Steelers tight end Vance McDonald to a team-high 10 catches. Imagine what Gronk will do if he’s funneled with 16 targets that McDonald saw last week. Gronk is might be the best play of the entire slate.
PATRIOTS PLAYS:
T. Brady, R. Gronkowski, D. Lewis, J. White, C. Hogan, B. Cooks
Jacksonville Jaguars (19.5)
* News *
L. Fournette – limited on Thursday (ankle) – expected to play
T. Gipson (FS) – missed practice on Thursday (foot) – expected to play
On the Jags side of the ball, we have a few intriguing options, starting with the quarterback. Don’t throw up, but Blake Bortles ($5,000) is a popular punt play that is worthy of your consideration. NFL coverage on every station has bashed Bortles’ inconsistent play, but somehow he has gotten the Jags to the AFC championship game. In his two playoff games, Bortles has completed only 53% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 301 yards with 2 touchdowns. Those numbers are a far cry from what you’d like to see from a quarterback in a championship game, but Bortles has added some production with his legs to make up for his lack of production through the air. In the past two games, Bortles has 123 rushing yards on 15 attempts (8.2 YPC). The added rushing production has made him rosterable considering his minimum priced salary.
Now Bortles faces the Patriots defense that ranked 21st DVOA during the regular season but isn’t as bad as their ranking suggest. The Patriots haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since week 6. However, even though the Patriots are much improved, if the game script goes as Vegas and several other analysts suggest, Bortles could be looking at plenty of garbage time opportunities to reach his value at only $5k. Even if the Jags manage an early lead, it bodes well for Bortles because he owns a passer rating of 103 when playing with a lead.
If I’m playing Bortles or trying to find a Jaguar receiver to create a game stack with I’m rostering Dede Westbrook ($3,900) or Marquise Lee ($4,400). Despite only seeing 9 targets combined last week, Westbrook and Lee still played over 65% of the snaps last week. Since the Jags got their full receiving corp healthy, Lee and Westbrook have led the way in snaps and targets, while Keelan Cole ($3,500) and Allen Hurns ($3,300) have split time in the slot. Although the best way to attack the Patriots secondary is receivers in the slot, I still prefer Westbrook and Lee over Cole and Hurns because they are more likely to be on the field.
My rankings for the Jags receivers are Westbrook, Lee, Cole, and Hurns.
The real focal point of the Jags offense is their running game. Leonard Fournette ($7,200) is the lone back on the slate that doesn’t have to worry about touches. Fournette is the only running back that is guaranteed to touch the ball over 20 times. He’s also the lone back that doesn’t have to share touches with anyone. The issue with Fournette is that he could suffer from a negative game script. If the game goes the way Vegas projects, that could limit Fournette’s rushes, and he has only averaged 3 receptions over the past four games. On top of that, Belichick gameplans to take away the opposing offenses’ best player and that means Fournette will likely see 7 to 8 men in the box. The positive side of rostering Fournette is that you get nice touchdown equity. Despite averaging a modest 4.4 YPC last week, he accounted for 3 of the 5 offensive touchdowns. It’s worth noting that the Patriots have only given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year and last week held Derrick Henry 2.3 YPC. The matchup and negative game script make me cautious in rostering Fournette this week despite his $1,500 drop off from last week.
JAGUARS:
B. Bortles, D. Westbrook, M. Lee, L. Fournette *only if you are fading Brady and stacking with Jags DST*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Conference Championships
The NFL DFS season comes to a close with the Conference Championships on Sunday. Thank you for reading all of our articles throughout this season. We hope we were able to help you craft a winning entry more often than not. Let’s ride off into the sunset with one more big payday. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
**QUARTERBACKS**
Tom Brady vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,700
FanDuel = $9,000
Brady is well known for his success in the playoffs and started out true to form last weekend, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. He has by far the most playoff experience of any of the quarterbacks still playing, appearing in 11 career Conference Championship games. He threw for 2,756 yards and 15 touchdowns in those games. The Jaguars have an elite defense, but most teams still left standing at this point are going to be tough to score against. The Jaguars did allow 42 points to the Steelers last week, so they aren’t impenetrable. Brady is the most expensive quarterback, but he also has the highest upside.
Case Keenum vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,600
FanDuel = $8,000
Keenum carried his excellent play during the regular season into the playoffs, throwing for 318 yards and one touchdown last week against the Saints. The fact that he played so well and helped lead an improbable comeback was especially impressive when you consider it was his first career start in the playoffs. The Eagles defense is no pushover, but they did allow 24 passing touchdowns this season, tied with the Patriots for the most among the four teams still playing. If you don’t want to pay up for Brady, Keenum should be the next best option.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Leonard Fournette vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,200
FanDuel = $8,500
Fournette is the one clear workhorse left at running back in the playoffs. He rushed 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round, marking his ninth game with at least 20 carries this season. He’s been fairly involved in the passing game as well, receiving at least four targets in five of his last six games. Although the Patriots allowed only six rushing touchdowns all season, they did allow an average of 114.8 rushing yards per game, placing them in the bottom half of the league. With plenty of carries likely on tap this week, Fournette is an excellent option for your entry.
Dion Lewis vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $8,100
FanDuel = $7,700
Lewis racked up yardage against the Titans last week, rushing 15 times for 62 yards and hauling in nine of ten targets for 79 yards. It marked his third-straight game with at least 100 total yards, all of which came with Rex Burkhead (knee) injured. Burkhead is expected to be available to return this week, but he might not be able to resume his normal workload right away. Lewis has done nothing to lose any touches either. The Jaguars allowed 116.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the most of any of the four remaining teams. Look for Lewis to provide enough value again in this game.
Latavius Murray vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $5,700
FanDuel = $6,900
Murray has been splitting time with Jerick McKinnon in the Vikings backfield but had 20 rushing attempts last week compared to only eight for McKinnon. He rushed for just 50 yards, but he did manage to score a touchdown. He’s had a knack for reaching the end zone lately, scoring at least one touchdown in three of his last four games. The Eagles are tough against the run, but Murray can still provide value at this price based on his touchdown potential.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Adam Thielen vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $7,400
FanDuel = $7,400
Thielen set career-highs across the board this season, finishing in the top-10 in the league in targets (142), receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,276). He only had four touchdowns, but still provided tremendous value in DFS most weeks. He showed no signs of slowing down last week against the Saints, hauling in six of nine targets for 74 yards. The Eagles allowed Julio Jones to record nine catches and 101 receiving yards for the Falcons in the Divisional Round, so they can give up some big performances. Volume alone makes Thielen worth consideration.
Stefon Diggs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $6,900
FanDuel = $6,700
Diggs had 20 fewer receptions this regular season than he did in the previous year, but a lot of that was because his catch percentage dropped by almost nine percent. He still received 95 targets and finished with a career-high eight touchdowns. He made the most of his catches as well, averaging 13.3 yards per reception this season compared to only 10.8 yards per reception last year. Last week against the Saints, he caught six of 10 targets, finishing with 136 yards and, of course, the game-winning touchdown. Playing both he and Thielen in your lineup is not a bad idea when you consider the other options available during a limited week.
Marqise Lee vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $4,400
FanDuel = $6,100
Simply put, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has struggled to throw the ball in two games during the playoffs, combining to complete 26-of-49 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns. He’s provided value with rushing yards, but that doesn’t help his receivers. The Jaguars might need to throw the ball more Sunday to keep up with the Patriots offense, which could mean added production for Lee. Lee received six targets last week against the Steelers and had 95 targets during the regular season as one of Bortles’ go-to options. Of all the receivers on the Jaguars, Lee might have the highest ceiling.
Chris Hogan vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $5,000
FanDuel = $6,100
Hogan only caught one of his four targets last week but salvaged the day by cashing in that one catch for a touchdown. Although he only played nine games during the regular season, he finished with a career-high five touchdown receptions. He averaged 6.6 targets per game, so he’s played a significant role in the Patriots offense when healthy. There aren’t a lot of great cheap options with so many excellent defenses taking the field Sunday, but Hogan’s touchdown potential gives him upside.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Rob Gronkowski vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $7,900
FanDuel = $8,400
Gronkowski had another dominant playoff performance against the Titans last week, catching six passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. In 11 career playoff games, Gronkowski has 835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. The Jaguars limited opposing tight ends to just five touchdowns during the regular season, but facing Gronkowski is an entirely different animal. He’s clearly the tight end with the highest ceiling in the Conference Championships.
Kyle Rudolph vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $4,500
FanDuel = $6,100
Rudolph finished with 83 receptions and 840 yards in 2016 but had only 57 receptions for 532 yards this year. He saw a drastic decrease in targets, but still managed to score eight touchdowns, which was actually one more than last year. The Vikings look for him when they get in close as he received 18 targets inside the red zone this season. If you don’t want to pay up for Gronkowski, take a chance on Rudolph possibly scoring a touchdown in this game.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
DraftKings = $3,800
FanDuel = $4,900
Eagles quarterback Nick Foles wasn’t overly impressive against the Falcons last week, throwing for 246 yards and no touchdowns. He gets a tough matchup Sunday against a Vikings defense that allowed the second-fewest net passing yards per game (192) and the fewest touchdown passes (13) in the league during the regular season. With six interceptions in their last four games, the Vikings defense has excellent value Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
DraftKings = $3,500
FanDuel = $5,200
With Bortles struggling, the Patriots defense could be in line for a big performance. They don’t create a ton of turnovers, but they do have 18 sacks in their last three games. Bortles really struggled on the road during the regular season, throwing only six touchdown passes to go along with eight interceptions away from EverBank Field. That’s not a recipe for success against the Patriots, who are dominant at home.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18
Key Injuries:
- Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
- Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.
DFS Chalk: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense
DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota
Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season. The teams they beat during this winning streak? The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos. One winning record out of the bunch. The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four. Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)
Vegas Implied Final Score:
Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22
Key Injuries:
- There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.
DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu
DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper
The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football. He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag. He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off. Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag. Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS. Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on. The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one. The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25
Key Injuries:
- The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.
DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas
DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram
In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate. These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points. In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches. In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara. The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon. That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route. Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here. Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option. While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it. This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)
Las Vegas Implied Score:
Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30
DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense
DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook
LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot. Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season. The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships. They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football. The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade. On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.
OVERALL:
Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee
Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Wild Card Weekend
*Mike Barner*
Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Wild Card Weekend
**QUARTERBACKS**
Jared Goff vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $6,700
FanDuel = $8,500
Goff made major strides in his second season in the NFL, throwing for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns. Not only did he improve his completion percentage by over seven percent to 62.1%, but his seven interceptions in 15 games this season matched his entire total in only seven games last year. He finished off the season strong, throwing at least two touchdowns in five straight games. There are few easy defenses when you get to the playoffs, but the Falcons have trouble creating turnovers as their eight interceptions during the regular season were tied for the third-fewest in the league. It’s tough to count on such a young quarterback making his first playoff appearance, but it’s hard not to rely on Goff considering his excellent regular season.
Alex Smith vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,300
FanDuel = $7,800
While he had a bit of an up and down season, Smith finished with a career-high 26 touchdown passes. He continued to do an excellent job limiting turnovers, throwing only five interceptions. He also threw for at least 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, finishing with 4,042 despite sitting out Week 17. The Titans were prone to allowing scores through the air this season, finishing tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed (27) in the league. That mark was also the most of any team that made the playoffs. While Smith’s upside may not be as high as Goff’s, he might be one of the safer bets to reach value this week.
Blake Bortles vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $7,600
That’s right, Blake Bortles lead his team to the playoffs. Bortles saw both his passing yards and touchdown passes decline this season, but he also attempted 102 fewer passes than he did last year. It made a big difference in the turnover department, throwing a career-low 13 interceptions. He played poorly Week 17 against the Titans but had thrown at least two touchdown passes in four straight games entering that contest. He’s been excellent at home this season, throwing 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions at EverBank Field compared to only six touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road. Viable cheap options are hard to come by in the playoffs, but Bortles can save you a few dollars while still having upside.
**RUNNING BACKS**
Leonard Fournette vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $7,400
FanDuel = $8,100
Fournette received a lot of hype heading into this season and did not disappoint, rushing for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns in only 13 games. He showed he can be a weapon in the passing game as well, hauling in 36 of 48 targets for 302 yards. The Bills have struggled to defend the run this season, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (124.6) and the most rushing touchdowns (22) in the league. At this reasonable price, Fournette is almost a must-start against the Bills.
Devonta Freeman vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $6,300
FanDuel = $7,000
Freeman did not finish the regular season on a high note, rushing for 59 yards on 22 carries over the final two weeks combined. He salvaged Week 17 by posting nine receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown against the Carolina Panthers, marking the second time in the last three weeks that he had at least 69 receiving yards. He has split backfield duties with Tevin Coleman this year, limiting his value to an extent. The Rams did finish the regular season tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (15) in the league, so Freeman is an option to consider in a potentially high-scoring game.
Derrick Henry vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $6,500
DeMarco Murray (knee) sat out Week 17, leaving Henry as the featured running back. While he only rushed for 51 yards on 28 carries, the volume was the key. He turned his one reception into 66 yards and a touchdown, making for an excellent final line. The Chiefs allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (118.1) and were tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (15) in the league, leaving Henry with great upside at this price. Murray has already been ruled out for this game, making Henry one of the best value plays this week.
**WIDE RECEIVERS**
Michael Thomas vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
DraftKings = $7,800
FanDuel = $8,300
Thomas had an excellent season for the Saints, finishing in the top-six in the league in targets (149), receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,245). He played well in his previous two games against the Panthers this year, posting at least 70 receiving yards and one touchdown in both contests. To no surprise, he received at least eight targets in both games. Based on the volume he receives on a weekly basis, Thomas is an excellent option for your entry.
Tyreek Hill vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,800
FanDuel = $7,700
Hill’s big play ability is unquestioned, finishing the season tied for the tenth-highest yards per reception average (15.8). He received 105 targets overall, which was second most on the team to Travis Kelce (123). The next closest wide receiver was Albert Wilson with 63 targets, so Hill is clearly Smith’s favorite weapon amongst wideouts. With his big-play ability and heavy volume, Hill has the potential to put up a monster game any given week. The price is right to roll with him based on the Titans struggles to defend the pass.
Mohamed Sanu vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $5,600
FanDuel = $5,800
While Julio Jones gets all the hype in Atlanta, Sanu had 67 receptions on 96 targets this season. He also finished with five receiving touchdowns, which were two more than Jones had. The amount of targets Sanu gets gives a boost to his value as he averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception for the fourth straight season. The Rams scored the most points in the NFL this year, so the Falcons may have to let it fly to keep up. Sanu’s reasonable price makes him in an intriguing option in the first round of the playoffs.
Eric Decker vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $3,500
FanDuel = $4,800
The Titans passing attack has been terrible this season but Decker gets his opportunities to produce, receiving at least five targets in each of the final five games of the regular season. The problem is the bad Titans offense doesn’t give many chances to score, hauling in only one touchdown pass this year. This week presents an interesting opportunity for Decker as the Chiefs tied for the fourth-most net passing yards allowed per game (247) in the league. There aren’t a lot of really cheap options to choose from, but Decker might be worth a look in tournament play.
**TIGHT ENDS**
Travis Kelce vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $7,100
FanDuel = $7,700
Kelce is the best option on the slate at tight end and it’s not even close. He continues to get tremendous volume, seeing at least seven targets in seven of his last eight games. While volume has been there throughout his time with the Chiefs, he cashed it in this season for a career-high eight touchdowns. The Titans had trouble defending tight ends this year, averaging the tenth-most yards to the position (853). If you can work him into your budget, he’s a safe option for production.
Charles Clay vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $4,000
FanDuel = $5,500
No one is going to confuse Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor as being an elite passing quarterback. He didn’t throw for at least 300 yards in any game this season and posted eight games with less than 200 passing yards. When he does throw the ball, Clay is one of his favorite options. Clay has received at least eight targets in each of the last three games, cashing that in for 15 receptions and 169 receiving yards. Viable cheap options at tight end aren’t easy to come by with so few games this week, but Clay is an option if you can’t pay up for Kelce.
**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $4,400
FanDuel = $5,600
The Jaguars defense had an elite fantasy season, finishing in the top five in sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and points allowed. To top it all off, they scored eight touchdowns. They get a great matchup this week against a Bills team that finished with the 11th-fewest points scored and tied for the seventh-most sacks allowed during the regular season. Pay up for the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $3,400
FanDuel = $4,800
Speaking of teams with struggling quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota took a major step backward in 2017. After throwing 26 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions last year, Mariota threw 13 touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions this season. Mariota really struggled on the road, throwing only five touchdown passes compared to 11 interceptions. If you want to save a little money at defense, the Chiefs are also primed to provide value.
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
*Cesar Becerra*
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round
We’ve made it through another NFL season! I hope you had as much fun as I’ve had during the NFL. But don’t put the brakes on the train quite yet! We still got a few more weeks of NFL DFS, and it doesn’t get any juicier than this Wild Card Week. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
** Demarco Murray has been ruled out ** Bump up Derrick Henry for touch projections.
Vegas
We have four games on the slate, and they are Falcons at Rams (48), Saints at Panthers (47.5), Titans at Chiefs (44.5), and Bills at Jaguars (39.5). ATL/LA and CAR/NO both have respectable game totals that you would like to target, while the BUF/JAX game leaves a lot to be desired with a total below 40 points.
The Rams and Saints lead the way with implied team totals of 27.5. The Chiefs (26.5) and Jags (24) aren’t far behind. It’s interesting how none of these games have a spread less than a touchdown. The Rams and Falcons have the closest spread at 5.5, but that line started at 5, which indicates betters are putting more money on the Rams and the line could push the Rams to up over a touchdown favorite. Per usual, check back with Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning for the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton ($6,500) – Cam is the safest play for cash games on this short four-game slate. Cam has a rushed the ball 50 times over his last four games and had accumulated 239 yards (4.8 YPC) with a touchdown. What’s more encouraging is the red zone opportunity Cam is getting rushing the ball. Cam has 12 red zone rushing attempts over these same four games, which shows that if the Panthers get down to the goal line, there’s a good chance Cam is going to score. This matchup is far from ideal as the Saints’ corners are far more talented than the Panthers receivers. But If Cam can get give you 11 DK points through the ground and another 220 and a touchdown through the air you’ll be satisfied he didn’t kill you like he killed many in Week 17.
Drew Brees ($6,400) – By this point in the season, it’s been well documented that Brees doesn’t have the same ceiling as he’s had in the past. But considering he’s implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points and is a home favorite, I don’t mind using Brees as a hedge to the Saints running backs. The Panthers ranked 4th in the league to opposing running backs and 22nd in aFPA to opposing QB (32nd aFPA vs. WR). This screams pass funnel, and I like a Brees pivot off the two-headed monster in the backfield for New Orleans.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500) – Mariota is my value play worth considering. The Chiefs are an 8.5 point favorite (tied for slate high) so that could force the Titans to throw more than they would like. Murray has already been ruled out, so I will be interested to see if they work Henry and Mariota out of the Wild Cat formation, which could increase Mariota’s rushes. The Chiefs ranked 23rd in aFPA to opposing Quarterbacks, so if Mariota is given the opportunity, he should be able to reach his value at $5.5K.
QB Rankings:
Newton
Brees
Goff
Ryan
Mariota
Smith
Bortles
Taylor
Running Back:
Todd Gurley ($9,700) – Gurley is the most expensive player on the slate. While the matchup seems far from ideal with the Falcons ranking 1st in aFPA to opposing running backs, Gurley is in a prime spot to reach value based on his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. The Falcons allowed the most receptions (107) and fifth most receiving yards (802) to running backs this season. Gurley finished in the top 5 of both categories and should eclipse 150 total yards. Gurley also benefits from being a home favorite with a team projected to score the most amount of points on the slate. Gurley might be too expensive for some in cash games given the excess of running back options. But he’s a prime candidate to be the highest scoring player on the slate with 68.5 DK points in his last two games.
Leonard Fournette ($7,400) – Fournette is the matchup play of the week. He’s a home favorite going up against the Bills defense that ranked dead last in aFPA to running backs during the regular season. Fournette also comes in as the fifth highest-priced running back and is the most affordable of the stud running backs. Fournette has 14 receptions in his past four games, but only has 129 yards (9.2 YPC). He doesn’t have the reception upside as Gurley, Kamara, McCoy, or Hunt but that’s why he’s priced lower.
Derrick Henry ($6,000) – With DeMarco Murray out, Henry is in line for another heavy workload day considering the Titans like to run their offense with a run-first mentality. Henry touched the ball 29 times for 117 yards and one score. Those numbers look great on the box score, but when you factor in that Henry only got two targets last week, it could be a little deceiving. If you erase the one catch Henry had for a 66-yard touchdown; you’re looking at a running back that had 5.1 DK points on 28 touches. This is extremely worrisome when you also factor in that the Titans are 8 point underdogs on the road and only implied to score 18 points. Henry might be the best point per dollar play in terms of touches, but the matchup is far from ideal.
RB Rankings:
High Tier
Gurley
Hunt
Fournette
Kamara
McCoy
Mid-Range
Henry
McCaffrey
Ingram
Freeman
Value:
Coleman
Tolbert * If McCoy is out *
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas ($7,800) – Thomas has 55 targets in the past six games, averaging just over 9 targets per game. In that same span, Thomas has 39 catches (70% catch rate) for 492 yards (82 yards/game) and 3 touchdowns. Thomas is going up against the Panthers who ranked 32nd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. See Adam Levitan’s tweet below for the most recent production for WR’s 1 against the Panthers secondary. Thomas is the safest high priced option, but will likely need to score to reach value.
Robert Woods ($6,600) – Since I’m likely going to play Thomas in my lineups, I’m probably going to avoid the other chalk wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($6,800). And if I’m staying in that price range I like pivoting to Woods. Since returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out for 3 weeks, Woods has regained his spot as the primary receiver in the Rams offense. In his two games back, Woods has received 15 targets and has turned that into 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. While the production isn’t great, with two full weeks to prepare for this game, expect Sean McVay to work Woods back into the passing game plan. I love getting exposure to Woods mainly because I’m not rostering Goff but I will be rostering Gurley and Woods to get all the exposure of the Rams passing game.
Eric Decker ($3,500)/Corey Davis ($3,600) – Value is really tough to come by on this slate, and you’ll likely need to find a receiver close to min salary to be happy with your lineup. I prefer Decker over Davis and Albert Wilson ($3,300). Let the others flock to Wilson and inflate his ownership because of his 19 targets in the past two games. However, it’s worth noting that last week he played with the Chiefs B-Team, so he was given all the targets (11). I like Decker over Davis because Davis hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. In the past four games, Decker is out targeting Davis 32 to 26 while playing the same amount of snaps (76%). The Chiefs ranked 26th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Decker leads the wide receivers in targets in their last four games.
WR Rankings:
High
Thomas
Julio
Woods
Hill
Funches
Mid-Range
Sanu
Ginn
Matthews
Kupp
Value
Decker
Davis
Tight End
It’s really difficult to find the salary to pay for Travis Kelce ($7,100). You have to decide if you want Kelce or a top-tier wide receiver but unfortunately, that forces you to play value wide receivers, and I see more value at the tight end position than a receiver. Because we’re so limited in value, this could be a week that we see two tight ends in a lot of lineups.
Delanie Walker ($4,700) – Walker is a nice mid-range tight end that could find his way in your lineups. He has 29 targets in his past four games and has turned that into 16 catches for 131 yards and one touchdown. This week he goes up against the Chiefs who rank 13th in aFPA. Walker would need to find the end zone to make value, but he has a respectable floor compared to the other options.
Austin Hooper ($2,900) – Hooper will be a popular value option at tight end. He doesn’t do anything that wow’s the box score (13 targets in last four games). But he’s a value play below $3K that will see 2-6 targets and is going up against the Rams who ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends. It’s nothing special, but at least you won’t be the only one rostering him this week.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,500) – Again like I said, value is scarce, so I’m giving you an extra tight end I’m considering. Lewis is not a target monster by any means (8 in last four games). But I’m encouraged by his team market share of receiving touchdowns (23.8%), which is second among all tight ends behind Kelce. In the red zone, Lewis has a 40% touchdown rate per target (4 TDs to 10 targets). At 2.5K all he needs is to catch a touchdown. It’s a shot in the dark, but that’s how you have to build lineups this week.
TE Rankings:
Kelce
Walker
Olsen
Clay
Lewis
Hooper
Defense
Los Angeles Rams ($2,700) – The Rams are the best defense for value playing at home against a Falcons team that is only implied to score 21 points. They are cheap enough to take a risk on and have the second highest sack percentage (9%) on the slate behind the Jags (11%).
DST Rankings:
Jags
Rams
Chiefs
Bills
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14
Tier 1
While the Chiefs picked up their fourth loss in a row, both Travis Kelce (4 of 8, 94 yards, 2 TD) and Tyreke Hill (6 of 9, 185 yards, 2 TD) had monster fantasy days last week vs. the Jets. This week they get another plus matchup vs. a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th most passing yards per game (241.1) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass in 2017. They share the targets from Alex Smith pretty equally but I favor Kelce slightly here as the Raiders rank 15th in DraftKings points per game to wide receivers but 26th vs. tight ends. Adam Thielen sits sixth overall in targets per game(9.3) this season and has been incredibly consistent with seven games with double-digit fantasy points and six with 15+ points but draws a tough matchup against the Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA vs. the pass. The game also has one of the lowest totals(41) of the week. All things considered, Thielen could be the low owned play in this tier. Finally, we have LeSean McCoy who had another productive week as he posted 93 yards on 15 carries and his third straight double-digit fantasy week. At the time of writing this, there is no Vegas total yet but I would fully expect the Bills to be at least three-point home favorites vs. the Colts giving McCoy a shot at a high workload this week.
Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2
Marvin Jones easily gets the best matchup in this tier facing the Bucs who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (267.3) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. The issue this week is the status of his quarterback Matthew Stafford who left last weeks game with a hand injury after being stepped on. If Stafford is back behind center I like Jones a lot but will probably fade if it’s backup Jake Rudock taking the snaps. I have strong feeling A.J. Green will be the chalk in this tier coming off a big game vs. the Steelers on Monday night where he caught seven of his 16 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns (could have been three if not for a bad penalty). He has now caught at least one touchdown in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. Jameis Winston returned to action last week and I was expecting a big game from Evans who has been a target monster all season but it never came to fruition as Evans only caught two of his six targets for 33 yards. Evans will be in a tough spot this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay who ranks as the #12 cornerback on PFF. If he was somehow able to avoid complete shadow coverage, I think he could be a sneaky play as the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game(245.3) this season. Michael Crabtree returns from his one-game suspension this week and gets a plus matchup against the Chiefs who rank 24th overall in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Raiders are also four-point underdogs so the game script could be perfect for Derek Carr to see 35+ pass attempts.
Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree
Tier 3
Kareem Hunt was once again unable to take advantage of a plus matchup and will easily be the lowest owned option in this tier as I am sure most people(including myself) are tired of waiting for the return of his early-season success. Devante Adams has been Brett Hundley’s top target but the passing game was not needed last week in a 26-20 win over the Bucs as the Packers rushed for 199 yards and picked up two defensive touchdowns. Look for Adams to get back on track this week against the Browns who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass. I talked about Marvin Jones in the last tier and the same sentiment goes for Golden Tate. He has a great matchup against the Bucs but at this time it is uncertain if Matthew Stafford will be back with an injured throwing hand. Stay tuned for more news. Josh Gordon made his return to the football field last week and was impressive considering he sat out nearly three years. He promptly made a ridiculous catch along the sideline and ended up catching four of his team-high 11 targets for 85 yards. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9), rank 21st in DVOA vs. the pass, and rank 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devante Adams, Josh Gordon
Tier 4
I mentioned Matthew Stafford in previous tiers when talking about Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and the update here is that he was limited Wednesday with his bruised hand. He is one of the toughest players in the league and a must-win for the team so I expect to see him on the field but will be avoiding the Lions offense for fantasy. Next up we have a huge matchup between the Vikings and Panthers and very similar value coming from both quarterbacks. Both Cam Newton and Case Keenum have put up 17+ DraftKings points in four straight games but Cam has displayed a little more upside with a 35 point ceiling. A lot of that has to do with his ability to run the ball, especially around the endzone. Both defenses are stout and rank Top 10 in fantasy points against the quarterback and with playoff and top seeds on the line, I fully expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Sunday so neither QB is that intriguing for fantasy. Without Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree last week, Derek Carr was very serviceable(22 of 36 for 287 and 1 TD) leading the Raiders to a big win over the Giants. He now gets both his receivers back and will face a Chiefs team that has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game(252.8) and rank 26th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo who gets the best matchup of all the options in this tier as the Texans rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. The only issue here is that it’s his second career start and he lacks options in the receiving game.
Top Target in this Tier – Derek Carr
Tier 5
Starting at the top Dak Prescott has been the best option on paper in this tier with five games of 20+ DraftKings points and has thrown for multiple touchdowns seven times. The issue has been the loss of Ezekiel Elliot as he has only done it once since losing his star running back. He does get a nice matchup this week vs. a Giants team that has given up the third-most passing yards per game(260.2) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. I fully expect 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes as the Cowboys still sit in a position to grab a wildcard spot. Next up is my other top option under center this week with Jameis Winston who returned after a three-week absence. He looked pretty darn good completing 21 of 32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without really getting much from Mike Evans(2 of 6 for 33 yards) and I think he will be going back to his top option this week with a ton of volume. Believe it or not, Andy Dalton has arguably been the most consistent option in this tier lately with multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last seven starts. The only issue is the upside is limited as he thrown for 300+ yards and topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I don’t really have strong feelings for any of the bottom three options but if I had to choose one of them it would be Deshone Kizer who now has the services of Josh Gordon who made his return last week and was heavily targeted and delivered with 85 yards. Despite being inconsistent and inaccurate (52.5% completions), Kizer has shown some upside with his legs and topped 20 fantasy points twice in his last four starts. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9) and rank 19th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Deshone Kizer
Tier 6
If you are looking for volume, it will be impossible to ignore what Evan Engram has been doing. Over the last seven games, he has tallied 59 targets and recorded 15 or more fantasy points five times with a season-high 22.9 points last week with Geno Smith under center. This week he gets Eli Manning back and with Sterling Shepard banged up, should once again see lots of volume. Christian McCaffrey should also see a ton of volume this week for two reasons. First of all, Jonathan Stewart is banged up(toe, ankle, foot) and didn’t practice Wednesday. Second, the Vikings defense should have a nice handle on the passing game downfield meaning we could see Cam dump it off to the running back quite a bit this week. Lamar Miller has been a bit of a disappointment from an upside standpoint this season but has displayed a consistent floor with 50+ rushing yards in all but one game and double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season. He gets a near elite matchup this week vs. the 49ers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(123.9) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Jamaal Williams has taken over as the Packers #1 back lately with 20+ rushing attempts in three of his last four games and broke the 100-yard mark last week vs. the Bucs. He has also scored in back to back games. The matchup is a downgrade this week as the Browns have actually been really good against the rush as they are one of just nine teams to allow under 100 yards per game for the season. Alfred Morris has also done a fine job as a backup who has stepped in due to the suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. He is coming off his best game of the season last week when he received 27 rushing attempts and posted 127 yards and a touchdown. He will likely see the same kind of volume this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 130.7 yards per game on the ground.
Top Targets in this Tier – Evan Engram, Alfred Morris, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 7
A couple things stand out in this tier starting with the matchup for Devin Funchess. He will be shadowed for most of the game by Xavier Rhodes who is coming off a terrific game against the Falcons as he completely shut down Julio Jones. The other note here is the that Amari Cooper cleared the concussion protocol but still missed Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury and is still listed as questionable. If he were to suit up and get on the field, I like him for a low owned option. Carlos Hyde does not get the greatest matchup as the Texans have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards per game and rank 4th in DraftKings points allowed to backs but he does have somewhat of a safe floor as he has been targeted a ton lately with 49 over his last six games. He has also put up double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season and 20 or more four times. Marshawn Lynch is another running back on my radar this week as he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and he has scored in three of his last four games. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (129.4).
Top Targets in this Tier – Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde
Tier 8
The hamstring injury for Sterling Shepard is something to monitor as Sunday approaches as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he suits up he gets a nice matchup vs. the Cowboys who rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Jordan Howard failed to bounce back last week as he tallied just 38 yards on the ground but gets another nice matchup to get back on the horse facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game(123.8) and ranks 22nd in DraftKings points per game to running backs. The only issue here might be getting a score as this game has the lowest Vegas total of the week(38). Duke Johnson let us down last week with just three DK points but has been a consistent floor play all season with eight double-digit DK point games thanks to his target share in the offense. The Vikings running backs have a tough matchup this week facing a Panthers team who has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game(88.6) so I would lean McKinnon who leads the way in the passing game between him and Latavius Murray with an average of 4.5 per game on the season. Both tight ends get plus matchups this week as the Bills rank 24th and the Giants 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. I lean Jack Doyle here as he comes in ahead with 6.8 targets per game to Witten’s 5.7 and Doyle has also tallied double-digit DK points in four of his last six games.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Jack Doyle, Duke Johnson
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!
Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 13
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 13
Week 13 is upon us and brings one of the toughest Draftkings slate of this season. There are four quarterback changes this week. Jay Cutler and Jameis Winston are returning from injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith are getting their first starts of the season. This is a widely spread out slate, which means I expect ownership to be spread out across the positions.
Vegas:
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.
This week there are no games with an over under above 50. There are four games bunched together with a total of over 47. Pats @ Bills 48.5, Panthers @ Saints 48, Eagles @ Seahawks 47.5, and Vikings @ Falcons 47. Aside from those four games, there are another four games with respectable totals between 44 and 46 points.
The teams with the highest implied total are the Patriots (28.5), Chargers (28.25), Saints (26), Rams (26), Raiders (25.75), Titans (25.25), Jags (25.5), and Falcons (25). There are a few games at risk of being a blowout and the Chargers headline the list as a two-touchdown favorite at home against the winless Browns. The Jags are the second largest favorite (-10) at home against the Colts. The Raiders (-9.5), Patriots (-8.5), Titans (-7), and the Rams (-7) are also a touchdown favorite. It’s worth targeting running backs at home as big favorites this week.
I encourage you to check out Vegas Insiders page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers (DK $7,000) – As I mentioned at the top of this article, ownership is going to be widely spread out, especially at the quarterback position. Of all the quarterbacks on the DK main slate, Rivers may be the most popular for cash games. He’s a two-touchdown favorite with a team implied to score the second-most points on the slate against a Browns team that rank 28th in aFPA. Rivers is coming off back to back good games, in which he met his salary expectation, but that was back when his salary was below $6,000. Now he’s seen a price jump of $2,100 and is a risk for a negative game script. On the bright side, the Chargers play distribution is 59% pass to 41% run, so there’s a good possibility if the Chargers do score 28 points, Rivers will be in a position to rack up all those points. It’s always worth noting when teams are two-touchdown favorites that If they get up to a big league, they could lean heavily on the running game to kill the clock.
Jameis Winston (DK $5,600) – I will be watching Winston’s ownership very closely up until lock time. Winston returned to practice on Wednesday and was announced as the starter. That news suddenly led to move the Bucs to a 1 ½ point favorite on the road against the Packers. The Packers rank 30th in aFPA and were just ripped apart by the Steelers and Big Ben who projects very similar to Winston. The Bucs have a relatively low team total of 22, but they have had no running game all season long, which has led to the second most distribution of pass plays with a 62% – 37% mark. Winston was up and down earlier in the season, but that was mostly due to his price averaging over the $6,000 mark. Now he’s the lowest he’s been all season with a $5,600 price tag and in a good matchup. The one limitation to follow is the question of how healthy he truly is. I’m ranking Winston as my favorite points/dollar play at QB.
Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,700) – There’s enough value plays this week at quarterback to give you an option of not paying up for QB. Blaine Gabbert might be someone worthy of your considerations given his performances in his last two starts. In two starts this season, Gabbert has completed 61% of his passes and thrown for 498 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That’s been more productive than expected given his mid 4K price range. What’s been most impressive about Gabbert’s stats is that he did it against good defenses (Jags and Texans), so while the Rams defense is probably not a matchup you want to pick on, Gabbert has been put to the test already this season. What I like most that is in Gabbert’s favor is that he’s a touchdown underdog. The Rams can put up points with the best of them so it wouldn’t surprise me if they jump to an early two-touchdown lead. That leads to a positive game script for Gabbert and more garbage time fantasy points. At $4,700 he only needs 16 points to reach value. He’s exceeded that mark in both of his starts so far.
Cash:
J. Winston, M. Mariota, T. Brady, C. Newton,
GPP:
(above), P. Rivers, J. Goff, D. Carr
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (DK $8,200) – Whenever Gurley does not figure to be the highest owned running back, I always want to consider him at least. Gurley is one of the running backs that has a high floor and higher ceiling, and he’s 4th in the league in touches. This week his team has an implied total of 26 points and are a touchdown favorite on the road. While the on the road aspect is not ideal, Gurley does not have home, and road splits so you can still safely project his volume. The Cardinals are rank worse against the pass (16th aFPA) versus against the run (6th aFPA), but Gurley sees enough volume to be still viable. Gurley has received 18 targets the past three weeks and has converted 13 of those into catches for 141 yards. Gurley is my favorite running back of the top tier given his floor and ceiling combination over Alvin Kamara.
Leonard Fournette (DK $7,800) – My next favorite back after Gurley is Fournette. Fournette is a massive 10 point favorite at home against the Colts who rank 30th in aFPA. Fournette is similar to Gurley where he sees the bulk of the team’s rushing touches and doesn’t have share snaps like the duo in New Orleans. The last time Fournette was a home favorite he failed to meet salary expectations, but this game script figures to be heavily in favor of Fournette. I also like that Fournette has seen more than 3 targets out of the backfield since returning from injury. I’m close to hitting the lock button on Fournette.
Jordan Howard (DK $6,500) – In the midrange there are a few running backs with favorable matchups starting with Howard and Carlos Hyde (DK $5,900). Both are receiving over 60% of the running back snaps and have accounted for over 60% of the team’s rushing yards. Howard comes into this matchup as a 3 point home favorite against the 49ers defense which ranks dead last in aFPA to running backs this season. Last week the game script significantly affected Howard’s production, but this game figures to be better for Howard.
Marshawn Lynch (DK $4,800) – I haven’t played Lynch all season, but if I will, it will be this week. Lynch is a huge home favorite (-9) and is facing the Giants who have already given up on the season and rank 27th in aFPA to RBs. The Raiders receiving staff is greatly depleted with Amari Cooper unlikely to play due to a concussion and Michael Crabtree unlikely to play due to suspension. That could lead to the Raiders running the ball more than their 61% – 39% distribution on the season.
Cash:
T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, C. McCaffrey, M. Gordon, J. Williams (if active)
GPP:
(All of above), L. McCoy, Saints RBs, A. Peterson, D. Booker,
Wide Receivers
DeSean Jackson (DK $4,700) & Mike Evans (DK $7,100) – The top receivers of the week for me are both receivers from the Bucs. As I mentioned in the QB section, I love Winston returning this week, and this also correlates to both of his receivers. The Packers have been absolutely torched by opposing wide receivers and rank 31st in aFPA, averaging nearly 29 points per game. Mike Evans is a lock for double-digit targets, and Jackson has shown that he has a higher floor this season and is no longer just a deep threat. Oh, and did you see what Antonio Brown did last week? All in on the BUCS offense!
Cooper Kupp (DK $6,400) – Kupp stepped up last week for the Rams after an injury to Robert Woods left an opening as the second receiver in the Rams offense. Kupp received 11 targets, the most he’s received all season, and turned that into 8 catches and 116 yards. He runs the majority of his routes in the slot and will likely avoid Patrick Peterson with him likely to shadow Sammy Watkins. The best way to attack the Cardinals secondary is in the slot of by targeting anyone not being covered by Peterson. So Kupp should be popular in the mid 6K range.
Davante Adams (DK $6,400) – My preferred pivot off Kupp is Davante Adams. Adams has emerged as the Packers primary receiver since Brett Hundley took over for Aaron Rodgers. Adams leads the team in targets since week 6 with 52 and is averaging over 8 targets per game. He’s been priced very cheap this season and is now at his highest price of the season, so that’s not exactly ideal, but he sees a lot of volume, and the Bucs are last in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. He’s a nice way to get exposure to the Packers offense.
Cordarrelle Patterson (DK $3,400) & Seth Roberts (DK $3,700) – As I mentioned in the Lynch write up, the Raiders will be without their top two receivers creating an opening for both Roberts and Patterson. These receivers are in a good matchup against the Giants who rank 25th in aFPA and just put Janoris Jenkins on IR. On the season these two haven’t been target as much with only 65 targets between for receivers. Roberts has 38 targets, while Patterson has 27. Patterson leads Roberts in targets per snap (9.4% to 7.6%). Last season, Roberts was a target monster in the red zone, but that has changed with the addition of Jared Cook this offseason. Both are worth consideration for GPPs. I think I like Patterson more than Roberts just for the upside that he has to break a slant for a 50 yard gain, but it’s really a coin flip.
Higher Tier Receivers Worth Playing(Above 7K):
K. Allen, B. Cooks, A. Thielen, D. Hopkins, M. Evans
Mid Tier ($5,000 – $7,000):
D. Funches, T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Kupp, R. Anderson, L. Fitzgerald, M. Sanu, D. Thomas, M. Lee
Value (Sub $5,000):
E. Sanders, D. Jackson, Z. Jones, D. Westbrook, J. Gordon, S. Roberts, C. Patterson, R. Cobb, D. Inman
Tight End
Jared Cook (DK $5,400) – Cook will likely be the most popular tight end on the slate with the Raiders wide receivers out. He’s much safer than Patterson and Roberts as Carr has targeted him at least 5 times in all but one game this season. It also turns out that he’s in a great matchup against the Giants who rank 32nd in the league against tight ends. Cook is a safe way to get exposure to the Raiders offense without hurting the floor of your lineup.
Hunter Henry (DK $4,700) – I love me some Hunter Henry this week. Tight end is a position where I don’t like to overthink it and often just follow the flowchart. Who’s playing the Browns? Who’s their leading tight end? Play that tight end. That is Henry this week. Henry has entirely taken over the tight end job over Gates and played 76% of snaps last week, bringing his snap percentage to 65% on the season. He’s also out targeting Gates 44-30 and has 10 targets in the last two weeks. The only thing keeping me from locking in Henry is that I like Cook quite a bit this week.
Cash:
J. Cook, H. Henry, T, Kelce, B. Watson, D. Walker
GPP:
(All above), R. Gronkowski, J. Thomas (#RevengeGame)
Defense
Denver Broncos ($3,000) – The Broncos are road favorites against the Dolphins who are implied to score 19 points and are getting turnover prone Jay Cutler back. The Broncos have been really disappointing this season, but they have seen their price decrease to $3,000 for the first time since they played the Patriots. The Dolphins are nowhere near the Patriots, and the Broncos should feast.
Cash:
LAR, DEN, TEN
GPP:
(All above) LAC, TB, MIA, BALT