The good news is that there are no teams on a bye in Week 13. The bad news is that we have three games on Thanksgiving, so we still have a somewhat limited amount of options for the main Sunday slate in DFS. With that being said, several of the top offenses will be at our disposal, which should make for an interesting group of games.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 12 – Quarterbacks and Running Backs
The Chiefs, Vikings and Chargers are among the four teams who are on a bye in Week 12, leaving us without the services of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Dalvin Cook and Melvin Gordon in DFS. As we wade through who is still available, here are some quarterbacks and running backs who could be in line for productive afternoons.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations – Divisional Round
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
With Wild Card Weekend in the books, the NFL moves on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week. There will be some excellent offenses in action, which could set up for a high scoring weekend in DFS. Let’s discuss some players who stand out at each position based on their matchups. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help you build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $7,000
The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for anything more from Mahomes this season. He not only brought them back to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, but he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. There were some concerns heading into the season that Mahomes could be prone to throwing interceptions, but that never really came to fruition as he finished with only 12 picks. He had the highest floor of any quarterback in DFS, throwing for at least two touchdown passes in all but two games. With the Chiefs running game still dealing with the loss of Kareem Hunt, their chances of advancing to the next round rest squarely on Mahomes’ shoulders. Look for him to come through with another productive outing.
Nick Foles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,400
Foles and the Eagles are at it again. They went on the road last week and knocked off a tough Bears team, 16-15. Foles carried over his playoff success from last year, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, he threw two interceptions, as well, but his overall stat line is still impressive considering his opponent. Now he’ll get to face a Saints team that tied for the third-most passing yards allowed per game (269) during the regular season. At this cheap price, rolling with Foles in tournament play is a viable option.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,200
The Cowboys don’t have a great offense, but Elliott can cover up a lot of holes. He was the key to their win over the Seahawks last week, carrying the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a touchdown. He was also plenty busy in the passing game, catching four of five targets for an additional 32 yards. With at least 100 total yards in nine straight games, Elliott is a safe bet to be productive. The Rams’ defense has had their problems stopping the run and ended the regular season allowing the most yards-per-carry (5.1) in the league.
Marlon Mack vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800
Andrew Luck grabs a lot of the headlines for the Colts, and rightfully so. His return to form is the main reason that they have been successful. However, Mack was just as important last week against the Texans, rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He’s now logged at least 24 carries in three of their last four games, averaging 135.3 yards. He’s also had a nose for the end zone, scoring at least one touchdown in five straight contests. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.1) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (19) this year, setting up Mack with another opportunity to shine.
Darren Sproles vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,400
Oddly enough, Sproles received more carries than any other Eagles’ running back last week against the Bears. He turned his 13 carries into just 21 yards, but that workload says something about how the team views him within their offense. He was on the field for 56 percent of their offensive snaps, compared to 41 percent for Wendell Smallwood and one percent for Josh Adams. With how well the Saints have stopped the run this year, it’s hard to see any of their running backs rushing for a lot of yards. However, the Eagles might have to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, so that game script would seem to favor Sproles. Even at this late stage of his career, he is still a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. If you’re looking for a cheap option in tournament play, Sproles has some upside.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Michael Thomas vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $7,900
Overall, Thomas had a spectacular season with 125 receptions on 147 targets for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. However, a lot of his damage came early in the year. He was fairly quiet down the stretch, posting 49 yards or fewer in four of his last six contests. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit, which sometimes didn’t leave Thomas with a ton of opportunities. With that being said, don’t let that shy you away from deploying him this week. The Eagles secondary is a mess and was torched by Allen Robinson for 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown last week. Nothing against Robinson, but he’s not in the same league as Thomas. The Eagles have their work cut out for them.
Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,800
The return of Foles at quarterback has done wonders for Jeffery. Before Foles took over in Week 15, Jeffery only had two games all season with at least 80 receiving yards. However, with Foles at the helm, he reached that mark three times across four contests. Considering how banged up the Eagles’ defense is and how well the Saints play at home, there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to have to score a lot to keep this game close. That should lead to plenty of targets for Jeffery.
Dontrelle Inman vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,800
T.Y. Hilton stands out as by far the best receiving threat on the Colts. Behind him, they haven’t really had a consistent producer. Inman hasn’t received a ton of opportunities, but he enters this contest with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He received a total of 15 targets during that stretch and was on the field for 70 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, highest among all other wide receivers behind Hilton. With how poorly the Chiefs’ defense has played, don’t overlook Inman if you need a cheap option in tournament play.
TIGHT ENDS
Eric Ebron vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,500
Ebron was only on the field for 49 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from catching another touchdown. Even though his yardage production has been hit-or-miss, he’s still a great option in DFS based on his touchdown production. This is about as juicy of a matchup as it gets against a Chiefs team that allowed 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends this year.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,600
Are we seeing the demise of Gronk? He scored just three touchdowns during the regular season, marking the first time in his career where he scored fewer than eight touchdowns during a season in which he played at least 10 games. His 52.5 receiving yards per game was also the second-lowest mark of his career. His upside isn’t what it once was, but he’s still an important part of the Patriots’ offense. Ebron is the safe pick, but if you’re looking to save some even more money at tight end, Gronkowski is a viable option during such a limited slate.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $3,000
The Rams defense can give up some points, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. They finished with 18 interceptions during the regular season, which tied for the third-most in the league. They also posted 41 sacks, led by star tackle Aaron Donald. The Cowboys are by no means an offensive juggernaut, even with one of the best running backs in the league on their team, setting up the Rams with the potential to be one of the better defensive plays of the weekend.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $2,600
The Chargers running back situation is concerning. Melvin Gordon has been banged up down the stretch and suffered another knee injury last week against the Ravens. He returned to that contest and is expected to play this week, but he might not be 100 percent healthy. Austin Ekeler was ineffective as he battled a groin injury last week, rushing 11 times for just 29 yards. Playing in Gillette Stadium in the playoffs is no easy task, so it’s hard to imagine this being one of the better offensive performances of the year from the Chargers.
Author Bio:
Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on ESPN Radio and DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat.
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Draftkings NFL Championship Round: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas.
Vikings (20.75) at Eagles (17.75) | MIN [-3] | Over/Under 38.5
Unlike the AFC game, the NFC game isn’t your traditional top offense meets a top defense. These two teams were the top seeds in the NFC, but the Eagles aren’t the team that earned them the number 1 seed. This game features two unlikely quarterbacks and two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in pace of play and the rank as the top 2 defenses DVOA per Football Outsiders.With two relatively unproven quarterbacks and two very good defenses, it explains why the game total sits at 38.5. Both teams are expected to play really conservative and focus on protecting the ball long enough for their defense to make a play to win the game.
Philadelphia Eagles (17.5)
* News *
D. Ellerbe (LB) – returned to practice on Thursday (hamstring) – questionable
For the second consecutive week, the Eagles come in as home underdogs. They did just enough to win the game last week but have their hands full with the number 1 defense in the league. The Vikings’ defense ranks 1st overall, 4th against the pass, and 5th against the run. Going up against such a dominant defense, it’s no secret why they have the lowest implied total on the slate. So how will the Eagles attack this dominant Vikings defense?
There’s no double they will miss Carson Wentz. Nick Foles ($4,800) is the lowest priced quarterback on the slate. He’s had four starts as the Eagles starting quarterback but has really only played three full games. If we remove week 17 where he was rested, Foles is completing 62% of his passes and has thrown for a combined 626 yards (215 YPG), while throwing 4 touchdowns to 1 interceptions. At first glance, those numbers don’t seem half bad when considering his price tag. But those numbers are inflated from his start against the Giants. If we remove the Giants game, Foles numbers drop to a 61% completion percentage with 409 yards (204 YPG) and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In 4 starts, Foles has yet to surpass 250 yards in any game. Even last week when he did a good job managing the game, Foles did not find the end zone. In all but one start this year Foles has yet to top 10 DK points and now going up against this stingy Minnesota defense that held Drew Brees to 62% completion percentage and picked him off twice. It’s not a good spot at all for Foles.
As you’d expect the matchup is just as bad for the Eagles receivers. Last week Alshon Jeffery ($4,600) led the receivers in targets with 5, followed by Torrey Smith ($3,000) with 4, and Nelson Agholor ($4,800) with 3. The three receivers combined for 10 catches and 124 yards (12.4 YPC) on 12 targets. If those were numbers from one receiver, we might be able to justify playing this combo receiver, but it’s not. This week they go up against Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Terrence Newman, all of which have a PFF grade higher than 78. Like Nick Foles, I’m not touching these Eagles wide receivers. If there is any receiver I have a slight interest in, it’s Torrey Smith. Smith offers some value because he is $3,000, plays more than 60% of the snaps, and doesn’t have to face Rhodes. On top of that, Smith still has the potential to catch a deep ball for a 60-yard touchdown. Agholor could become an essential part of the passing game with Jeffery presumably being locked up by Rhodes, but at $4,600 I rather take a shot at one of the Jags receivers given that their role is a little more stable.
I always love me some Zach Ertz ($5,300), but he disappointed last week with only 3 catches on 5 targets, and the Vikings rank 2nd in DVOA against tight ends. This season the Vikings have only allowed two tight ends to pass 50 yards and score more than 9 DK points. If I’m playing the Vegas narrative that the Eagles will be trailing in this game, Ertz is the only pass catcher that I would trust from Philadelphia’s offense.
Perhaps the most trusted Eagle this week is Jay Ajayi ($5,200). It’s only a matter of time before Doug Pederson realizes that Ajayi is the most talented back on their roster. Last week Ajayi led the team in touches with 15 carries and 3 receptions for 99 yards. Unfortunately, like the Patriots situation, Ajayi is splitting time with two other running backs. LeGarrette Blount ($3,700) is their goal-line back, and Corey Clement ($3,000) is their third-down back that gets work out of the passing game. Ajayi got 54% of the running back touches last week and is also explosive enough to break one, but after watching the Vikings front seven slow down Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 3.2 YPC last week, you can’t help but be hesitant about the entire Eagles offense. Kamara was able to get behind the secondary and score a 14-yard touchdown, so maybe Clement can get some of that same luck. It’s not a matchup-proof situation for these running backs, but it’s a two-game slate, you need to get risky sometime.
EAGLES PLAYS:
J. Ajayi, Eagles Defense, Z. Ertz
Minnesota Vikings (20.75)
* News *
A. Sendejo (FS) – limited practice on Thursday (concussion) – expected to play
A. Thielen – missed practice on Thursday (back) – Probable
The Vikings have the second highest implied total on the slate at 20.75. It’s not pretty, but that’s what you get when you have 3 top 5 defenses in the league in the final 4. The Eagles also have good defensive metrics DVOA (2nd total, 7th pass, 3rd rush). The biggest concern is how the Vikings will stop the Eagles defensive line. The Eagles relentless defensive line has 5 of PFF top 30 pass rushers with Brandon Graham (91.6), Fletcher Cox (90.7), Vinny Curry, (84.7) Tim Jernigan (82.7)and Chris Long (91.8). Their defensive line is among the best in the league and matches up well against the offensive line of the Vikings (offensive line average grade via PFF is 57.28). The Eagles are also allowing 10 fewer points per game at home opposed to on the road this season. Despite this line and home-field advantage for Philadelphia, I still like some Vikings again this week.
Case Keenum ($6,600) was able to salvage a poor fantasy day with a miracle catch by Stefon Diggs. Fortunately for Keenum, he has the best wide receiving corps left in the playoffs with Adam Thielen ($7,400) and Stefon Diggs ($6,900). Fortunately for Minnesota, the most exploitable hole in the Eagles defense is their secondary as they ranked 21st in aFPA to wide receivers, per 4for4. So the recipe for success for Keenum is to get the ball into their playmaking receivers quickly. Keenum is not a safe bet by any means because of the Eagles defensive line tendency to put pressure on the quarterback, but he has some upside with the talent he has surrounding him. I just can’t justify not spending the extra $1,100 to get Brady.
The Vikings receivers are where I would like to get exposure to this game. The Eagles secondary gave up 100 yards to Julio last week and also allowed for Sanu to go for 50 yards on 3 catches. According to PFF, the cornerback worth exploiting is Jalen Mills who has given up a league-high 9 touchdowns. Mills is not a pushover by any means, but he ranks the lowest (75) of their other two cornerbacks Patrick Robinson (89.7) and Ronald Darby (83.2). It’s difficult to say who will see Mills the most either Thielen or Diggs, especially after last week when Thielen spent the most time outside of the slot than he had all season. Part of that was due to a season-high in snap count by Jarius Wright ($3,000) who played a season-high in snaps and caught 3 of his 6 targets. I’m growing more and more confident about each of these receivers matchup this week, especially Diggs who I think should see the majority of Mills. My rankings for the Vikings receivers are Diggs, Thielen, Wright.
The Vikings running backs have done better at home than on the road, averaging 13.21 DK points at home opposed to 9.51 DK points on the road. Jerick McKinnon ($5,100) was slightly better on the road averaging 10.71 points while Latavius Murray ($5,700) averaged 8.47. In the 4 road game where the Vikings were favored, McKinnon also outscored Murray 11.65 to 8.3. In a backfield that is an actual 50-50 split, I’m torn 50-50. I feel like the game script should favor McKinnon with the Vikings moving the ball with dump-offs and screens to the running backs in hopes of slowing down the pass rush. But I’m hesitant in going all-in McKinnon over Murray because Murray has a higher floor and higher touchdown equity. Over the past two games, Murray has out-touched McKinnon 42 to 23 and has outscored McKinnon 3 to 1. Murray is the goal-line back and gets almost all of the work in the early downs. In a game that should be slow paced and slugged out, Murray could touch the ball 25 times.
VIKINGS PLAYS:
S. Diggs, J. McKinnon, A. Thielen, L. Murray, Vikings Defense
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
*Chris Tierney – cstcst*
NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments
If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy. Who is going to win the game and how? Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective. Making more than one lineup? Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.
As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game. It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP. Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward. My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis. Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups. The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer. Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars. Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season. Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game. He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.
Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.
Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia
On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win. They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs. Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff. This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly. There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.
DFS Chalk: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi
Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)
This game has the opportunity to shoot out. Will the real New England defense please stand up? Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again. Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End. I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect. The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success. I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game. Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense. That has to be the Tennessee running-game right? #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations. The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.
DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry
DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)
Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh. If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory. As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same. They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men. Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here? Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook? That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week. The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense. The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team. An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.
DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster
DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee
New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)
Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend. The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints. Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field. I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.
DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill
Top GPP Stacks:
1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas
2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 17
Welcome to the craziness that is Week 17 in the NFL. There are teams that are locked into their playoff spots or have nothing to play for at all and could very well sit their starters. Even if some players don’t sit all together, they could be limited to a couple quarters at most. Be sure to check out all the information available on Twitter or by a simple Google search before locking in your lineups as this article is written mid-week. Let’s jump in and take a look at each Tier for the seven-game early slate on Sunday.
Tier 1
Ezekiel Elliott returned last week and rushed for 94 yards and picked up an additional 21 yards through the air but unfortunately, the Cowboys lost and were eliminated from the playoffs. This muddies the waters for Week 17 as it is unclear how much usage he will get and then add the tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense that ranks 4th in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs.
DeAndre Hopkins received his second-lowest target share of the season(6) but still managed to make a ridiculous catch in the endzone to pick up 16.5 fantasy points. This week he gets an elite matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(254.8) this season and rank 23rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. I am also less concerned with his usage as both teams have been out of the playoffs for some time now and it hasn’t stopped him at all.
The Patriots are locked into the playoffs and have wrapped up the division but still have one game left to lock down home-field advantage through the playoffs with a win so I am expecting another big game from Gronk. He has scored 15 or more DK points in four straight games with three of those performances exceeding 25 points and now faces a horrendous Jets defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 24th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. He could be the highest owned player in this tier but also may have the biggest upside.
The Vikings have also locked up their division but have a big game on Sunday as the Rams, Saints, and Panthers are all breathing down their neck for that #2 seed and a first-round bye. Adam Thielen has been quiet over the last two weeks with just five catches for 54 yards but is having a big season overall with 1,215 yards and could be low owned this week considering he is facing a Bears team that has been pretty good against wideouts ranking 14th in DK points per game. Don’t overlook he and Case Keenum’s ability to produce big-time fantasy points as Thielen moves all over the field and can exploit matchups.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Adam Thielen
Tier 2
Marvin Jones has not scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Thanksgiving vs. the Vikings and has seen some decline down the stretch as he has only been targeted 14 times over the last three games and tallied double-digit fantasy points just once. Despite neither team in this game having anything to play for, Jones does get a nice matchup vs. the Packers defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game(232.3) and ranks 25th in DK points per game to wideouts.
It’s a similar situation for T.Y. Hilton as the Colts and Texans have been eliminated and on to next season. Hilton did breakout in a tough matchup last week vs. the Ravens catching six of his 12 targets for his first 100-yard game since week 9 against none other than these Houston Texans who rank 28th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Hilton to finish the year off strong.
Speaking of the Texans, it was JuJu Smith Schuster getting to them late on Christmas day as he caught six of his seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury both Martavis Bryant and Smith-Schuster should continue to see high usage in the Steelers defense. The other thing he has going is that the Steelers can still grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss. This week they get a winless Browns team that sits mid-pack in passing yards per game allowed (230.7) but rank 29th overall when looking at DVOA vs. the pass. Fire up JuJu with confidence this week.
Another safe play in this tier is Dion Lewis at the running back position. With James White and Rex Burkhead both out last week, Lewis saw the bulk of the action out of the backfield and crushed for fantasy rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown 35.3 fantasy points. Burkhead for sure won’t be back this week and White is still questionable early in the week meaning Lewis could once again be the feature back for the Pats who are huge 15.5 point favorites. The Jets have been pretty good against the run ranking 12th in DVOA and 15th in DK points per game allowed to running backs but the game script in fully in Lewis’s favor here and he should once again see 20+ carries which presents a high floor and ceiling.
Top Targets in this Tier – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis
Tier 3
Tom Brady has been a big disappointment for fantasy lately and a lot of it can be attributed to the run game that has averaged 121.5 yards per game over their last four games. In those four games, Brady has not topped 17 fantasy points once and may not again this week as the Patriots are currently huge 15.5 point home favorites vs. the Jets and will likely lean on Dion Lewis once again.
Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game in over a month throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos and has topped 15 fantasy points in three of his last four weeks. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The running game in Washington has been hit hard with injuries which should once again force Cousins to throw it up 30+ times and he gets an elite matchup to do it against the Giants who rank 31st overall in DK points per game to quarterbacks.
Even without Antonio Brown, Big Ben threw two touchdowns on Christmas day making it seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are still playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs but without Brown again this week and an elite running back in the backfield(Le’Veon Bell), we shouldn’t expect high volume from the passing game which will limit Big Ben’s upside.
Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed much upside since having his throwing hand stepped on earlier in December against the Ravens. He has hit double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season but has only hit the 20-point threshold once in his last five games. There has been no word nor is it expected that the Lions will rest their starters against the Packers and that is good news as the matchup is favorable as the Packers rank 25thin DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Back in Week 9, Stafford completed 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.
The Eagles snuck out a win on Christmas vs. a weak Raiders defense but it was almost all credited to the defense as Foles came back to Earth after a four-touchdown performance the week before. He completed just 50% of his passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Eagles locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs so it is unclear how much run they will give Foles in a division game vs. the Cowboys. If word comes out that they will let him play the entire game to prepare for the playoffs, fire him up as the Cowboys rank 21st in DK points per game allowed to QB’s and Foles has a ton of weapons to help him hit value(Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, Ajayi).
Top Targets in this Tier – Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
Tier 4
The fourth tier is a very interesting one considering four of the five quarterbacks have nothing to play for as their teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Only the Vikings and Case Keenum have something to play for as they look to lock up the #2 seed and a first-round bye. As of Wednesday, the four other quarterbacks are slated to start for their respective teams but Eli Manning seems to have the biggest question mark as to how much playing time he will see.
Dak Prescott gets a tough matchup on paper vs. the Eagles who rank 6th in DVOA vs. the pass and 12th in DK points per game allowed to the position. With the Eagles having already locked up the #1 seed there is a chance they could rest some starters in the second half which would open up Prescott’s upside if he was to play the entire game.
Brett Hundley will get the start and likely play the entire game but the knock on him this week is that two of his top receiving options are dealing with injuries. Devante Adams remains in the league’s concussion protocol while Jordy Nelson was injured in Saturday night’s game and has yet to practice this week. The matchup is also not high on the list as the Lions rank 16th in DVOA vs. the pass and 14th in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Proceed with caution.
Jacoby Brissett easily gets the best matchup in the tier facing a Texans defense that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and dead last in DK points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with him is that the upside really hasn’t been there as he has just three touchdowns over his last four games while averaging 11.9 DK points per game. If you are planning on using Brissett in this tier, be sure to pair him with his top target, T.Y. Hilton, in Tier 2.
Top Target in this Tier – Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett
Tier 5
Tier 5, which consists of five wide receivers, start with Stefon Diggs who has not only scored in back to back games but has also been much better at home this season. He is averaging just over 85 yards per game(44 on the road) and has scored five touchdowns(2 on the road) while averaging 20.9 DK points per game(9.9 on the road). The matchup is not the greatest against the Bears who rank 14th in DVOA vs. the pass but the good news is that Diggs has also seen an uptick in targets over his last four games with 7.3 per game compared to his 5.9 season average.
As a mirror opposite, Brandin Cooks gets a great matchup this week against the Jets who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass and 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that he has trended down with his targets lately with an average of 5.5 over the last four games and the game script will most definitely not be in his favor as the Pats are huge 15.5 point favorites.
After scoring in back to back games, Alshon Jeffery recorded his worst game of the season catching zero balls on just two targets against the Raiders. He and Nick Foles have not shown the same chemistry as he and Carson Wentz did for most of the season. The Eagles have also locked up the #1 seed and although he will start the game, it is unclear how many snaps he and the rest of the starters will see against the Cowboys. Best to fade Jeffery here.
Jamison Crowder played with a hamstring injury last week and seen just 45% of the snaps but came through catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been the most targeted player on the Redskins this season(6.8 per game) and with an extra week to get back to full health should be able to exploit an excellent matchup vs. the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.
Martavis Bryant also gets an upside matchup in Week 17 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. He should also see some added target share this week with Antonio Brown still sidelined with an injury while the Steelers are still fighting with the Patriots for the #1 seed in the AFC. This is one tier that I will be splitting a few a players in multi-lineup contests.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant
Tier 6
Zach Ertz has been the most reliable option in this tier averaging 7.2 targets and 15.5 DK points per game but will be hard to trust this week as the Eagles have wrapped up the #1 seed and it’s unclear how much the starters will play this week. The same sentiment holds true for Ertz’ teammate Nelson Agholor who could also see limited snaps. Another big question mark in this tier is the status of Sterling Shepard as he was not present at practice on Thursday and with the Giants having nothing to play for, it is unlikely he sees the field and if he does it will likely be limited snaps.
I talked about the Lions matchup this week with Marvin Jones and the same holds true for Golden Tate who has seen steady targets all season(7.5 per game) and sits with 899 yards and four touchdowns. I do prefer Jones slightly as he gets the better matchup vs. Damarious Randall while Tate, in the slot, will see quite a bit of Morgan Burnett who is rated quite a bit higher than Randall over at PFF. Both are definitely in play if Stafford is going to be playing the entire game.
Like I have mentioned, the Eagles will likely sit most of their starters, at least in the second half which presents an excellent matchup for the Cowboys this week and Vegas agrees as they have Dallas sitting as road favorites. Dak Prescott even mentioned he will be damned to finish the season after last week’s performance so I fully expect the offense to play the entire game and try and end 2017 on a high note. Roll out Dez with confidence.
Josh Gordon has continued to trend down since his return and posted his worst game of the season(4 games) last week in Chicago with just two catches on eight targets for 19 yards. He is getting the targets(9 per game) but gets an even tougher matchup this week facing a Steelers team that ranks 7th in DVOA vs. the pass and DK points per game allowed to wideouts. More bad news as the Steelers also have the #1 seed to play for so you can expect a strong performance against their division rivals.
With Aaron Jones not practicing this week and doubtful to play in Sunday’s finale, it opens up the workload for Jamaal Williams once again making him a nice target this week. He has flashed big upside since taking over as the Packers top back mid-season and posted one 100+ yard game and scored in three straight games from Week 12-14. He will likely see 20+ touches this week in a terrific matchup vs. the Lions who rank 28th in DVOA vs. the rush and 31st in DK points per game allowed to running backs.
Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Jamaal Williams
Tier 7
Jordan Howard has been a boom or bust play all season. He has flashed big upside as he has rushed for 100 or more yards five times and scored multiple touchdowns three times but also scored 10 or fewer DK points seven times. I have a strong feeling that the latter will be the case in Week 17 as he gets a terrible matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game(87.1) and fewest DK points per game to running backs. Probably best to fade him here. Robby Anderson is also on my fade list in this tier as he is not only questionable with an illness but has also done nothing since Josh McCown went down in Week 13. Lamar Miller has been a huge disappointment this season as he has not topped 75 yards once and comes in with three straight weeks without getting to 10 DK points and was out-touched and out-performed by Alfred Blue on Christmas day. Safe to say Miller is also a fade in Week 17.
After starting off the tier with three fades it doesn’t leave many options but there is some value with the Vikings players this week as they have the #2 seed in the NFC to play for and the starters will likely play the entire game unless it gets out of hand. The matchup for the running backs is a tough one as the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game(105.5) and rank 9th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Because of this, I lean Jerick McKinnon who has been far and away the receiving back this season with 4.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s 1.1 per game. On the season, McKinnon has 51 receptions for 421 yards and a touchdown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he has been dealing with n ankle injury all December and was once again limited in practice this week. On top of that, he gets a tough matchup as the Bears rank 12th in DK points per game allowed to tight ends. For receiving options, I prefer Diggs and Thielen for the Vikings. SKOL!
I talked about Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton as a nice stack earlier and another option on the Colts this week is tight end, Jack Doyle. He is tied with Hilton for the team lead in targets(6.9) and gets a terrific matchup vs. the Texans who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(246.3) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the tight end position.
Top Targets in this Tier – Jerick McKinnon, Jack Doyle
Tier 8
If Duke Johnson gets in a full practice this week after being limited Wednesday he makes an intriguing option as he has been a nice PPR back all season. He is fourth in receiving among running backs with 68 receptions for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Will Fuller cannot be trusted as he has fallen off a cliff since Deshaun Watson went down before Week 9. Bilal Powell is a nice option here in this tier as he is closing his season out on a high note with touchdowns in three of his last four games and coming off his second 100+ yard game last week vs. the Chargers.
The Colts may not have anything to play for in Week 17 but Frank Gore has a milestone to hit. Via Evan Silva on Twitter:
4 players have rushed for 1,000+ yards in 10 seasons:
Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Curtis MartinFrank Gore needs 139 yards vs HOU to become the 5th.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 26, 2017
I fully expect the Colts to feed him the ball this week. Another option who is fully in play here is Randall Cobb of the Packers. With Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams very doubtful to play it will open up a ton of targets and Cobb could very well be the beneficiary giving him a high floor and ceiling vs. the Lions.
Top Targets in this Tier – Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, Randall Cobb
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!